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J. J.
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« Reply #8150 on: June 17, 2011, 10:30:38 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, +1.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8151 on: June 17, 2011, 11:58:28 pm »

It seems interesting that Obama is resigned to the fact that he might lose in 2012, I suppose that hope and optimism is gone, replaced by realism. 

While the optimism might have replaced by realism, and lower poll numbers, I have not seen Obama being resigned to losing in 2012.  I think it is still wide open.

I think Obama has mentally checked out, he said his wife and children are happy with only 1 term.  Unless he starts smoking again maybe he'll exhibit more energy on the campaign trail. 

You say more about yourself than about the President. Such is projection.

Why did you attribute that quote to me, since I called the race wide open and doubt that Obama is resigned to anything at this point?

It is to milhouse. Ordinarily it is the last statement that is the kicker.
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The Professor
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« Reply #8152 on: June 18, 2011, 04:23:23 pm »

J.J., obsessing over the Rasmussen Obama approval ratings will not help you with the ladies. You do want the ladies, do you not?
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J. J.
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« Reply #8153 on: June 18, 2011, 06:08:54 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, -1.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

If this holds, it could indicate some major erosion in Obama's numbers.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8154 on: June 18, 2011, 06:13:08 pm »

J.J., obsessing over the Rasmussen Obama approval ratings will not help you with the ladies. You do want the ladies, do you not?

If I wanted help with the "ladies" I wouldn't be posting here (though I am the only poster that ever corresponded with Deborah Palfrey).

Actually, the Rasmussen numbers have tended to be better than Gallup in election years and tend to be much more stable than Gallup.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8155 on: June 19, 2011, 02:44:44 am »

Tennessee (Vanderbilt):

44% Approve
50% Disapprove

With 700 respondents to the Vanderbilt Poll, the margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.7 %.

The poll was conducted by calling a random sample of landline telephone numbers over a period of six days – from June 3 through June 8.

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20110619/NEWS/306190050/Obama-holds-lead-over-GOP-hopefuls-Tennessee
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8156 on: June 19, 2011, 04:56:15 am »
« Edited: June 19, 2011, 05:05:58 am by pbrower2a »

Tennessee (Vanderbilt):

44% Approve
50% Disapprove

With 700 respondents to the Vanderbilt Poll, the margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.7 %.

The poll was conducted by calling a random sample of landline telephone numbers over a period of six days – from June 3 through June 8.

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20110619/NEWS/306190050/Obama-holds-lead-over-GOP-hopefuls-Tennessee



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The large number of undecided in most matchups  leaves some questions unanswered. Nonetheless, all Republicans are faring badly as potential opponents to President Obama, and all Republicans except Mitt Romney would lose this state big to President Obama.  I look at these numbers and I see President Obama having a reasonably good chance of beating a fairly-strong Republican or at least someone (Huckabee would probably have fit) in tune with the culture.  But even with these numbers I at the least see President Obama faring better than Al Gore did in what was supposedly Gore's state.

This should scare Republicans: Barack Obama lost this state -- big -- in 2008. If President Obama can win Tennessee, then he has a good chance of winning over 400 electoral votes. Should President Obama win back the sorts of voters who went to Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 but to Dubya or McCain in the Double-Zero Decade, then President Obama is on his way to an Eisenhower-scale electoral victory in popular and electoral votes.

Tennessee looked as if it offered a marginal chance for an Obama victory back in February, so this doesn't seem so off the wall as it did. Maybe the Texas Lyceum poll isn't so off-the-wall as I first thought, too. But that said, the five states that President Obama got clobbered in that Bill Clinton won twice (Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia) together have about as many electoral votes as Texas.  


Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 141
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   130
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 74
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 15
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 141
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   123
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 38
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8157 on: June 19, 2011, 08:17:18 am »
« Edited: June 19, 2011, 05:11:20 pm by pbrower2a »

I'm beginning to wonder whether the Texas Lyceum poll in the Texas Tribune is as off-the-wall as I thought it was. The unsettling oddity is that the Governor still has strong approval ratings while the President does, without really-good times for Texans. Rick Perry and Barack Obama could hardly be more different.

 
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J. J.
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« Reply #8158 on: June 19, 2011, 10:06:58 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, +2.

Disapprove 52%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -2.

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J. J.
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« Reply #8159 on: June 20, 2011, 08:36:16 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, u.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, u.


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8160 on: June 20, 2011, 12:43:49 pm »

This poll should surprise nobody:

Field, California:

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Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/06/20/MN7C1JVHTE.DTL#ixzz1Pp1cDjx5
 


Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 141
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   130
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 74
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 15
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 141
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   123
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 38
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  



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J. J.
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« Reply #8161 on: June 21, 2011, 08:55:30 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, u.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, -1.

Well, at least the erosion has stopped.  Smiley
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8162 on: June 21, 2011, 01:25:39 pm »

Gallup, with a massive anti-Obama sample today:

45-48 (-4, +5)

ARG:

42-52

http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy

PPP:

48-48

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/6/16

New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

50-46

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1615
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8163 on: June 21, 2011, 04:17:45 pm »

Quinnipiac, New Jersey, 50-46

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1615

PPP just released a report on Montana, but not on the Presidency.
 


Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 127
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   146
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 74
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 15
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 127
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   139
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 38
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  




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The Professor
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« Reply #8164 on: June 21, 2011, 05:58:27 pm »

J.J., obsessing over the Rasmussen Obama approval ratings will not help you with the ladies. You do want the ladies, do you not?

If I wanted help with the "ladies" I wouldn't be posting here (though I am the only poster that ever corresponded with Deborah Palfrey).

Actually, the Rasmussen numbers have tended to be better than Gallup in election years and tend to be much more stable than Gallup.

You "corresponded" with Deborah Palfrey? My students buy hookers all the time. I don't give them extra credit for that though. Unfortunately, I can't give you extra credit. But I can give you advice since I am in a position of authority. My advice is this - spending the day mashing the F5 button on rasmussenreports.com waiting for Obama's approval to change by a point or two is no way to get the ladies.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8165 on: June 22, 2011, 12:32:43 am »

Bloomberg/Selzer National Poll:

49% Approve
44% Disapprove

"Only 30 percent of respondents said they are certain to vote for the president and 36 percent said they definitely won’t. Among likely independent voters, only 23 percent said they will back his re-election, while 36 percent said they definitely will look for another candidate."

The poll of 1,000 adults was conducted by Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-06-22/obama-gets-30-certain-to-support-re-election-in-economy-poll.html
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J. J.
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« Reply #8166 on: June 22, 2011, 08:15:23 am »

Gallup, with a massive anti-Obama sample today:

45-48 (-4, +5)




One of the reason I'm not enamored with Gallup.  We get a lot of those.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8167 on: June 22, 2011, 08:38:51 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, -1.

Disapprove 52%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, u.

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Ben Romney
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« Reply #8168 on: June 22, 2011, 04:37:22 pm »

Obama collapse in Gallup confirmed:

43(-2)/49(+1)

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8169 on: June 22, 2011, 06:39:01 pm »

Are you better off than you were 3 years ago?

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/57507.html

Forty-four percent of Americans say they are worse off than they were when Obama took office, while 34 percent say they are better off, and 21 percent say they are doing about the same.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #8170 on: June 22, 2011, 06:41:03 pm »

So roughly the same proportion of people who voted for John McCain are now claiming to be worse off under Obama?  Who'da thunk it?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8171 on: June 22, 2011, 08:20:52 pm »

So roughly the same proportion of people who voted for John McCain are now claiming to be worse off under Obama?  Who'da thunk it?

That's quite simplistic. Plenty of wealth republican investors are doing fine since 2009 due to market growth, while the African American community is enduring massive unemployment.

No reason to believe that 44% lines up given the facts.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8172 on: June 22, 2011, 09:52:19 pm »

while the African American community is enduring massive unemployment.

Really? I'm surprised to hear that. Must be a very strange experience for them; quite a change when you consider how well they were doing before Obama won.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8173 on: June 23, 2011, 10:02:38 am »

while the African American community is enduring massive unemployment.

Really? I'm surprised to hear that. Must be a very strange experience for them; quite a change when you consider how well they were doing before Obama won.

Quite a bit better than they are now, which of course was the question asked.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8174 on: June 23, 2011, 10:36:47 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, u.

Disapprove 53%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, u.
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