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J. J.
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« Reply #8175 on: June 23, 2011, 10:43:56 am »


The bad sample could still be in there and Gallup is noted for wide swings (unlike Rasmussen).  There is some erosion, but no Obama collapse at this point.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8176 on: June 23, 2011, 12:15:10 pm »


The bad sample could still be in there and Gallup is noted for wide swings (unlike Rasmussen).  There is some erosion, but no Obama collapse at this point.

43-50 today (nc, +1)

Meanwhile a new TIME poll has Obama at 48-46 and a new AP/GfK poll at 52-47.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8177 on: June 23, 2011, 12:18:54 pm »


The bad sample could still be in there and Gallup is noted for wide swings (unlike Rasmussen).  There is some erosion, but no Obama collapse at this point.

43-50 today (nc, +1)

Meanwhile a new TIME poll has Obama at 48-46.

I think Gallup is on a three day sample, so a bad sample might still be in there.

What were Obama's last Time numbers and from when?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8178 on: June 23, 2011, 03:06:48 pm »

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OR_0623513.pdf

Definitely not consistent with the vote of 2008, but Oregon is the sort of state that snookers Republicans into flooding the state with political money only to turn against the money.

Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 127
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   146
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 74
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 15
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 127
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   139
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 38
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8179 on: June 23, 2011, 03:08:07 pm »

PPP will be polling Texas and New Mexico next week.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #8180 on: June 23, 2011, 04:32:34 pm »

Obama at 38% and only 41% want him re-elect

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/NewsRoom/HarrisPolls/tabid/447/ctl/ReadCustom%20Default/mid/1508/ArticleId/824/Default.aspx
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izixs
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« Reply #8181 on: June 23, 2011, 04:39:19 pm »


Uck, silly approval rating scale in use there. There is no one single definition of fair that all people use in polls like this.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8182 on: June 23, 2011, 05:07:04 pm »


Interactive polls are worthless.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #8183 on: June 23, 2011, 08:51:42 pm »

Obama falls into negative approval at RealClear for the first time since Osama was killed:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

net-.2% approval today

I expect Obama will rebound a bit with the pull out from Afghanistan and releasing oil from the strategic reserve.

If Obama falls back to a -5% or worse, like last Nov. and in April, he will be toast for reelection next year
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8184 on: June 24, 2011, 12:07:24 am »

Obama falls into negative approval at RealClear for the first time since Osama was killed:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

net-.2% approval today

I expect Obama will rebound a bit with the pull out from Afghanistan and releasing oil from the strategic reserve.

If Obama falls back to a -5% or worse, like last Nov. and in April, he will be toast for reelection next year

Not really, Obama could win with 40-45% approval, just like Bennet or Reid did - in the case the Republicans nominate a crazy nutter like Bachmann, Palin or Cain.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8185 on: June 24, 2011, 02:04:46 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, u.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, +1.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8186 on: June 24, 2011, 04:48:45 pm »

Quote
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Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 127
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   146
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 74
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 15
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 127
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   139
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 38
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8187 on: June 24, 2011, 04:58:12 pm »


A few things worth noting:

1. PPP no longer recognizes Newt Gingrich as a serious candidate now that he has no campaign staff and the finances of his campaign are in shambles. The Gingrich campaign is now strictly a fantasy world. Floridians who want a fantasy can go to a Disney resort or some less-expensive place. You are going to see me remove my predictions of matchups between President Obama and the former Speaker of the House, probably so that I can introduce those for Rick Perry.

2. The President has slipped a little from May... but not enough to lose Florida. Sure, his approval falls just short of disapproval, but he would defeat any Republican nominee that anyone can now think of. "Generic Republican" will be in hibernation in the Presidential election of 2012.

3. At this stage the matchups demonstrate that it is good enough to have an approval rating in the high forties. It is the matchups that count, as a simulation against some ideal opponent is not going to appear.

4. I see one possible fault with my model: it lumps some likely results in the area of 52-54% because of some predicting smoothing. 45-47% approval result in a prediction of 51% of the vote; 50% to 52% approval results in a prediction of 54% of the vote. I predict that the President seeking re-election will not try to 'run up the score' in popular vote where he sees himself with 55% of the popular vote and won't try to 'look good losing' where he projects to lose 55% or more of the vote.

You might try to understand why I would never expect the President to transform a 60% approval into a 66% share of the popular vote; no Presidential candidate has ever won so much as 62% of the popular vote nationwide since 1900. I assume that the opposition is not in complete disarray and still has enough of a political base to contest an election. Even FDR managed to pick up 'only' 60.8% of the nationwide vote in 1936, and LBJ won 'only' 61%
of the vote in 1964, and Nixon won 61.7% of the vote in 1972.  About a third of all voters would "never vote for a Democrat" and a third would "never vote for a Republican", or at least the sorts who get the nomination from one of the factions therein.

Even if the Republicans should nominate someone from the extremist wing, then that wing will show unusual enthusiasm. The money machine will not disappear. Someone who wins the nomination has to have the strong support of at least 25% of the population. So if someone says that Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann would lose 63-30, then one predicts something without precedent.

I have to put the fade somewhere.

5. Governor Rick Scott is a political disaster in the making for the GOP in Florida. His only imaginable asset to the GOP in an effort to win the election of the Republican nominee for President is to do voter suppression. For obvious reasons, the President is not going to go along with anything that violates the Civil Rights Act of 1964 that would hurt his chances of re-election.   

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The Republicans absolutely must win Florida to have a chance to win the Presidency, and we can all be sure that the Obama campaign will not allow the election to hinge upon whether the Governor or any other political operator is able to use dirty tricks to win. The Voting Rights Act of 1965 is the official standard of enforcing the 15th Amendment and some others:

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No Governor wants a federal indictment awaiting him, especially for a deed that offers him no chance of personal gain or the advancement of his political career. If it is a choice between "President Obama gets re-elected and I don't go to federal prison" or "President Obama gets re-elected and I go to a federal prison"... guess which choice even Rick Scott makes. The chance that he gets away with making a difference in Florida that wins the Presidency for the Republican is very slight.

Game theory strikes again.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8188 on: June 25, 2011, 08:33:04 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, u.

Disapprove 53%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

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J. J.
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« Reply #8189 on: June 26, 2011, 08:38:46 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8190 on: June 27, 2011, 08:37:22 am »
« Edited: June 27, 2011, 11:29:16 pm by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49, +1.

Disapprove 51%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -2.

I'm wondering if a pro Obama sample is moving through the system.

[Fixed]
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8191 on: June 27, 2011, 01:03:12 pm »

I'm wondering if a pro Obama sample is moving through the system.

It`s actually 49-51 today.

But while Rasmussen is moving upwards, Gallup is still moving downwards to 43-49.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #8192 on: June 27, 2011, 05:08:06 pm »

When will Susa release the numbers for KS CA OR and WA this month??
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8193 on: June 27, 2011, 11:26:33 pm »

When will Susa release the numbers for KS CA OR and WA this month??

They released them tonight:

CA: 48-47 (-8, +7)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c717d146-99e7-4de8-8217-9fb792fc2fb8

KS: 35-57 (-7, +3)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c9cb9d95-0451-467c-8613-efb0bf5d4a7e

OR: 38-58 (-8, +9)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=87dabdb7-5435-402e-891e-11b3bf475127

WA: 46-49 (-4, +2)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c34262fe-7152-4e56-be8d-dd7e32b0f6dd

...

Wow, SUSA is smoking something really strong these days ...
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J. J.
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« Reply #8194 on: June 27, 2011, 11:31:07 pm »

I'm wondering if a pro Obama sample is moving through the system.

It`s actually 49-51 today.

But while Rasmussen is moving upwards, Gallup is still moving downwards to 43-49.

Fixed it.  The 'bots moved earlier in the month.  This looks like stabilization.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8195 on: June 27, 2011, 11:39:40 pm »

McClatchy-Marist Poll:

45% Approve
47% Disapprove

50% Favorable
44% Unfavorable



The poll of 1,003 adults, including 801 registered voters, was conducted June 15-23. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points for the entire sample and plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for registered voters.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/06/27/116614/voters-give-obama-lowest-rating.html
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Jbrase
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« Reply #8196 on: June 27, 2011, 11:56:09 pm »

I'm wondering if a pro Obama sample is moving through the system.

It`s actually 49-51 today.

But while Rasmussen is moving upwards, Gallup is still moving downwards to 43-49.
Well Rasmussen is a hackish GOP polling firm so we can't trust these numbers, we'll have to go with gallups Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8197 on: June 28, 2011, 12:17:36 am »

PPP/DailyKos/SEIU weekly poll:

46% Approve
50% Disapprove

47% Favorable
48% Unfavorable

Generally speaking if there was an election today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama, or would you vote for his Republican opponent?

46% Obama
46% Republican

Public Policy Polling, 1000 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, June 23, 2011 - June 26, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/6/23
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8198 on: June 28, 2011, 12:21:07 am »

I`m wondering why RealClearPolitics does include the Democracy Corps polls all the time, but they never include the weekly PPP poll for DailyKos ...
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« Reply #8199 on: June 28, 2011, 01:27:56 am »


Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 127
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   139
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 38
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  

[/quote]

I note that you have shaded Texas white on the basis of a suspect poll? It wasn't something I'd noticed before because I usually only look at your yellow/green polling map and make my own judgement on how that may play out electorally. The very negative (and likely suspect) poll for Oregon made me wonder if you will use those figures in your projection to show Obama losing the state, so I looked up how you've treated suspect polls previously in your prediction maps.
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