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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1028366 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #8200 on: June 28, 2011, 04:11:42 am »
« edited: June 28, 2011, 11:16:17 am by pbrower2a »

I consider SurveyUSA suspect  because it rarely jibes with other polls. Soon after I have shown a SurveyUSA poll, I have almost invariably regretted doing so.

The one in Texas -- it has an oddity in that the poll shows President Obama doing unusually well in Texas, but Governor Perry also doing well. President Obama with an approval rating in excess of 50% in Texas? It is hard to believe. I wonder whether the Texas Lyceum has a bad sample. perhaps one skewed heavily Hispanic or Black.

But even if the poll is off by 6%, the poll indicates that Texas is too close to call. I err on the side of caution. Something is there.

Texas is arguably the trickiest state to poll.  I understand that PPP has polled Texas and will release results some time this week.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8201 on: June 28, 2011, 10:00:36 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49, u.

Disapprove 50%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, -1

Pro-Obama bad sample moving through or some actual movement?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8202 on: June 28, 2011, 05:31:10 pm »

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PPP finds Montana to have an electorate much more Republican  than that of 2008.   

Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 127
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   146
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 77
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 15
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

This time I have a new category in orange in which President Obama loses to every candidate despite seeming close to having a chance to win.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 127
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   139
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 38
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8203 on: June 28, 2011, 05:45:26 pm »
« Edited: June 29, 2011, 03:47:02 am by pbrower2a »

Montana, PPP:

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PPP finds Montana to have an electorate much more Republican  than that of 2008.   This is the only state, so far, in which President Obama is within 7% of a 50% approval rating but in which he loses to all apparent Republican contenders. It's not really close.

Did Montana get an oil and gas boom with lots of Republican voters who would vote for Tony Soprano if he were the Republican nominee?  

Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 127
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   146
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 77
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 15
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

This time I have a new category in orange in which President Obama loses to every candidate despite seeming close to having a chance to win.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 127
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   139
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 38
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  

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Ben Romney
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« Reply #8204 on: June 28, 2011, 05:57:29 pm »

New Hampshire

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Lynch: 43 / 29
Pres. Obama: 39 / 54

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/28/nh-obama-approval-39-appr_n_886406.html
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J. J.
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« Reply #8205 on: June 29, 2011, 11:05:06 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, -2.

Disapprove 52%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, +2.

Pro-Obama bad sample dropped out.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8206 on: June 29, 2011, 01:23:28 pm »

Texas (PPP):

42-55

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TX_629513.pdf

New York (Quinnipiac):

57-38

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1619

New Jersey (Bloomberg/Selzer):

59% Favorable
37% Unfavorable

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-29/new-jersey-s-christie-loses-support-for-second-term-over-budget-slashing.html
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xavier110
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« Reply #8207 on: June 29, 2011, 01:45:51 pm »


ARG..the worst pollster ever
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8208 on: June 29, 2011, 01:49:34 pm »


They have Obama's approval among Democrats in the 60s ... !!!

Joke poll.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8209 on: June 29, 2011, 04:47:36 pm »
« Edited: June 30, 2011, 03:18:47 am by pbrower2a »

Texas, PPP. This makes sense.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TX_629513.pdf


New York, Quinnipiac

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1619

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You can trust that no Republican really has a chance in 2012 against President Obama in New Mexico.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_06291118.pdf

The ARG poll of New Hampshire has no credibility. Bloomberg/Selzer is a favorability poll and thus cannot be used.



Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 122
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   151
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 39
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 53
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 122
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   151
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 90
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 0
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 81
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  

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foodgellas
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« Reply #8210 on: June 29, 2011, 05:59:20 pm »
« Edited: June 29, 2011, 06:07:15 pm by foodgellas »

I'm a big fan of your posts and the work you put into your maps.

However, don't you find them a little too good to be true? How is Obama going to win OH with the unemployment rate there nearly 10%? If he can't win OH, then forget about PA or IN.

Also, in what universe is Obama winning TN? I saw one poll that indicates such a possibility, and all candidates barely registered in it. No way Obama wins TN, AZ or GA in 2012. These states were all out of reach while he had the strongest wind at his back in 2008. Demographic changes haven't come fast enough for them to move in his direction with current economic headwinds. I cherish the possibility, but I don't see how it could happen.

I still say Obama will win re-election, but not by a larger margin than in 2008. Worst case winning scenario, he wins all of the Gore states + VA, NH and NE's 1 EV. Best case winning scenario, he repeats the exact same electoral map he had last time.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8211 on: June 29, 2011, 06:54:00 pm »
« Edited: June 29, 2011, 06:57:49 pm by pbrower2a »


 How is Obama going to win OH with the unemployment rate there nearly 10%? If he can't win OH, then forget about PA or IN.

As a rule I add something to the approval rating for the incumbent. Such proved right with George W. Bush, who was an awful President. Opinions on President Obama are about as divided now as they were going into the 2004 election.

I look at the matchups between the President and putative opponents, and such an addition is justifiable. The President is not likely to run against someone now (or likely to remain) a complete mystery. As I recall, President Obama had a higher disapproval rating than approval rating in Ohio (by 1%) and a tie in Pennsylvania, but in the polls that I saw, President Obama was shown winning against every candidate imaginable. Sure, if the Republicans come up with a candidate of unusual strength, they can beat President Obama, and if the President has a meltdown as a leader (scandal) or is held culpable for an economic calamity, he loses. But such has yet to happen.


As for 10% unemployment in Ohio -- voters might decide to lay blame on Republicans.
I look at the national  Gallup Presidential polls for Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan in contrast to President Obama -- and the patterns are similar enough that I can expect President Obama to win. President Obama's political skills are roughly the same as those of Clinton or Reagan... and that will say much in 2012.

President Obama now projects to win Pennsylvania and Ohio. Tellingly, the incumbent Democratic Senator from Ohio is in a strong position to win re-election after one term in a state close to the national norm, and the Republican Governor is extremely unpopular in Ohio.  

In Senatorial and Gubernatorial races, Nate Silver estimates that an incumbent usually gains about 6% from an approval rating before the campaign. Such applies just the same both to failures and winners alike.  I assume that much the same President, except that the obvious cap exists for about 62% of the maximum share of the vote because no Presidential nominee has ever won that much of the vote. But if the resident's approval rating should be 56% in April 2012, then we can be very certain that the election won't be interesting.  
    
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Arizona -- President Obama lost the state by a margin less than that of the usual margin against a Favorite Son. Had the Republican nominee been anyone other than John McCain, then Arizona would have been extremely close in 2008.

But note that I see President Obama losing the state -- to Mitt Romney, and just barely. I see Romney as a good match for Arizona so far, and most other Republicans as disasters there.

Georgia -- Georgia has a heavy military presence.  Soldiers and military dependents probably voted with deference to a legitimate war hero. The Republicans have no war hero as a potential nominee. In any event, as in other Southern states, military and diplomatic issues matter greatly. President Obama seemed untested in the extreme in 2008; that is over. Not long ago President Obama projected to lose only to Romney, and another poll recently showed President Obama winning against Romney.

Tennessee -- One poll. President Obama got a 44% approval rating much as in Arizona, but he had significant gaps between himself and every potential Republican nominee. I am convinced that Mike Huckabee would win against President Obama because Huckabee is a good match against  President Obama. Mike Huckabee is perfectly suited to neighboring Arkansas, a state very similar to Tennessee in its demographics and political history.

Matchups are a check of the system. They can contradict the theory -- or refine it.  

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I think that you are right. But I now see the President winning by much-smaller numbers in some of the states that he won by gigantic margins in 2008 (but still winning them, except perhaps Nevada), holding his own in states that he won by slight-to-modest margins (except perhaps Indiana, about which I know nothing due to a lack of polls of any kind), picking up Georgia, and gaining some votes in states that he lost by gigantic margin. If I were guessing on Indiana, I would predict that the President loses the state because he is not going to campaign extensively there and statewide Republicans are going to play defense as shown in their effort to ensure about a 7-2 split in the Congressional delegation.  

Here is an oddity: President Obama got relatively few electoral votes for his margin of victory in the popular votes.  Contrast the elections of 1944 (when America wasn't as polarized in statewide voting as it is now) in which FDR utterly clobbered Thomas E. Dewey in electoral votes. President Obama could win 53% of the popular vote and 400 electoral votes against Mitt Romney if the interstate polarization weakens.

All polls suggest that the President would win decisively against a weak candidate (meaning one with weak political skills -- President Obama is a consummate campaigner and can get a superb electoral apparatus out of mothballs), and would crush a candidate who seems like a part of the lunatic fringe.

Barring the unmentionable, President Obama seems as known a political commodity as there could be. With the Republicans one has huge questions.  

....

Politicians in office have to legislate or administer. Such cuts into their approval ratings because they can't please everyone. But if they aren't abject failures in office, they usually show why they were elected in the first place. The losers among Presidents since 1900 lost either because they either rode the popularity of a strong predecessor once (Taft, the elder Bush), endured one of the worst economic meltdowns in history (Hoover), were objective under-achievers (Carter, who had practically no legislative successes), or had never been elected to any statewide office or been a high-profile cabinet member (Ford) and ran an inept campaign.

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J. J.
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« Reply #8212 on: June 30, 2011, 09:36:23 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, u.

Disapprove 52%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, +1.

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Ben Romney
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« Reply #8213 on: June 30, 2011, 05:23:28 pm »

National

Obama Job Approval
43% Approve, 49% Disapprove (chart)
Economy: 35 / 55 (chart)
Health Care: 38 / 52 (chart)

2012 President
46% Obama (D), 36% Huntsman (R)
46% Obama (D), 43% Romney (R)

Congressional Job Approval
13% Approve, 62% Disapprove (chart)

State of the Country
21% Right Direction, 64% Wrong Track (chart)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/30/us-obama-approval-43-appr_n_888160.html
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« Reply #8214 on: June 30, 2011, 09:01:37 pm »

My prediction
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8215 on: July 01, 2011, 07:31:45 am »
« Edited: July 01, 2011, 11:23:49 am by pbrower2a »

Quinnipiac never seemed to poll Virginia before. It may be adding a state to its repertory.

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Basically, the President still beats the strongest GOP challenger that anyone can imagine.  The good mood in the aftermath of the killing of Osama bin Laden is no more. The Republicans will need a miracle worker to defeat President Obama or some calamity for the President to win Virginia.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x5822.xml?ReleaseID=1621



Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 122
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   138
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 81
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 39
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 53
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 122
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   138
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 103
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 0
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 19
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 81
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  


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J. J.
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« Reply #8216 on: July 01, 2011, 08:53:25 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, u.

Disapprove 52%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, u.
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Hotblack Desiato
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« Reply #8217 on: July 01, 2011, 08:54:31 am »

I'm curious. Why such a similar-looking map to 2008?
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« Reply #8218 on: July 01, 2011, 10:36:33 pm »

That's my confidence for 2012 on how each state votes, my prediction after the election night...
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J. J.
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« Reply #8219 on: July 02, 2011, 09:36:53 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, -1.

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« Reply #8220 on: July 03, 2011, 10:03:10 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49, u.

Disapprove 50%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -1.
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« Reply #8221 on: July 06, 2011, 10:09:30 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49, u.

Disapprove 50%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, +1.
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Badger
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« Reply #8222 on: July 06, 2011, 10:49:47 am »

I'm a big fan of your posts and the work you put into your maps.

However, don't you find them a little too good to be true?

Welcome to the forum, and meet pbrower, whom you just neatly summed up. Wink

How is Obama going to win OH with the unemployment rate there nearly 10%? If he can't win OH, then forget about PA or IN.

With respect, PA will go (stay) with Obama long after Ohio might switch GOP.
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« Reply #8223 on: July 07, 2011, 08:37:27 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49, u.

Disapprove 50%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, +1.

These numbers still include holiday weekend numbers.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8224 on: July 07, 2011, 12:29:21 pm »

NH (UNH):

46% Approve
49% Disapprove

http://www.wmur.com/politics/28464796/detail.html

NH (PPP):

46% Approve
49% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_07071118.pdf

I guess there is consensus ... Wink
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