Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 24, 2020, 10:43:11 am
News: 2020 Mock/Endorsements for Presidential Primaries are now open.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 325 326 327 328 329 [330] 331 332 333 334 335 ... 410 Print
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1028777 times)
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8225 on: July 08, 2011, 09:06:02 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, -1.

Disapprove 52%,+2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +2.

Logged
Bull Moose Base
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,488


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8226 on: July 08, 2011, 09:15:22 am »

Really bad jobs numbers today. A deficit-deal that by Obama's own analysis people won't like (and people don't necessarily care much about the deficit anyway) or potential market panic if deal crumbles.  The next couple weeks look to be ugly in this department.  He should probably kill Gaddafi.
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8227 on: July 08, 2011, 09:19:03 am »


Yeah, he should definitely kill him because the jobs report was bad.

While we're on that type of subject, I think I just found a good excuse for why we went into Iraq...
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8228 on: July 08, 2011, 12:25:08 pm »
« Edited: July 12, 2011, 09:34:05 pm by pbrower2a »


First July poll (G).

Second, Pennsylvania, PPP:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.





Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 122
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   134
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 77
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 39
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 53
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 122
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   134
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 83
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 0
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 23
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  20
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 81
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  




Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8229 on: July 09, 2011, 08:44:36 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, -1.

Disapprove 53%,+1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.


Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8230 on: July 10, 2011, 09:33:31 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, u.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.



Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8231 on: July 11, 2011, 09:02:17 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, -2.

Logged
Dgov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,558
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8232 on: July 11, 2011, 07:06:44 pm »

Its not a Statewide poll, but PPP tested Obama's approval rating with likely S.E. Voters in CA-36, and found him at 44-47 disapproval.  The (admittedly small) sample claimed to have voted for him 56%-39%, and he won the district in 2008 64.5-33.5

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2011/7/8/CA-36/38/wsI21

Mostly this is due to Obama being at 44-45 with the district's considerable Hispanic population.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8233 on: July 12, 2011, 07:03:08 am »

Sarah Palin, according to a "tweet" by PPP, has a  split of favorability of 32/58 in Utah.

The populated sections of Utah are in a seismic zone almost as dangerous as California, which might be good for a few metaphors.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8234 on: July 12, 2011, 08:54:48 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, u.

Disapprove 52%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, u.


Logged
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,447
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8235 on: July 12, 2011, 09:05:58 am »

Sarah Palin, according to a "tweet" by PPP, has a  split of favorability of 32/58 in Utah.

The populated sections of Utah are in a seismic zone almost as dangerous as California, which might be good for a few metaphors.

Hey BRTD, there's got to be a handful of tropes to describe the style of writing that pbrower exhibits, no? Like, someone who tells a bad joke and then follows up the joke with an explanation of why it's funny, such that even those who don't think the joke is funny can appreciate the wit and intelligence of he who wrote it?
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8236 on: July 12, 2011, 10:01:54 am »

Sarah Palin, according to a "tweet" by PPP, has a  split of favorability of 32/58 in Utah.

The populated sections of Utah are in a seismic zone almost as dangerous as California, which might be good for a few metaphors.

Hey BRTD, there's got to be a handful of tropes to describe the style of writing that pbrower exhibits, no? Like, someone who tells a bad joke and then follows up the joke with an explanation of why it's funny, such that even those who don't think the joke is funny can appreciate the wit and intelligence of he who wrote it?

No joke is intended there. I'd like to see the poll, and when I see it there might be an interesting metaphor.

I lack one thing of being good at making jokes -- I'm not Jewish.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8237 on: July 12, 2011, 11:44:06 am »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_UT_7121118.pdf

Off topic, but there could be an interesting Senate race in Utah in 2012.

Utah!
Logged
Ben Romney
Hillary2012
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 395
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8238 on: July 12, 2011, 02:40:30 pm »

PRESIDENT NATIONAL (Zogby)
Obama approval: 42% deserve re-election: 36%
http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zogby.com%2Fnews%2F2011%2F07%2F12%2Fibope-zogby-poll-christie-ahead-obama-hypothetical-6-others-dead-heat-president%2F&h=zAQBFjro6
Logged
Reaganfan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,057
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8239 on: July 12, 2011, 02:54:10 pm »


Holy crap. Zogby sucks but even still...that's bad.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8240 on: July 12, 2011, 03:03:04 pm »


As I've said numerous times:

It's Zogby!

Actually, Zogby wasn't too far off in 2008, but it still isn't one of the top tier polls.
Logged
King
intermoderate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,409
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8241 on: July 12, 2011, 07:41:59 pm »


With Zogby's 25% margin of error, that might be great.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8242 on: July 13, 2011, 09:29:10 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48, +1.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, u.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8243 on: July 13, 2011, 04:43:30 pm »
« Edited: July 13, 2011, 04:49:40 pm by pbrower2a »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_713424.pdf

Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 122
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   119
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 77
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 53
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 122
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   119
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 83
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 0
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 23
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  35
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 81
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  




Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,120
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8244 on: July 14, 2011, 07:49:42 am »

Reuters/Ipsos:

49% Approve
46% Disapprove

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=10849

Quinnipiac:

47% Approve
46% Disapprove

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1624
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,120
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8245 on: July 14, 2011, 08:39:34 am »

Rasmussen (14-07-2011)Sad

49% Approve (+1)
50% Disapprove (-1)

26% Strongly Approve (+3)
38% Strongly Disapprove (nc)
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8246 on: July 14, 2011, 08:58:36 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, u.

I'd suspect a bad sample may be moving through the system; a 5 point Strongly Approve in two days is a bit high.

Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8247 on: July 14, 2011, 12:49:12 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, u.

I'd suspect a bad sample may be moving through the system; a 5 point Strongly Approve in two days is a bit high.



Wait a few days. Maybe President Obama won the budget squabble, the pitched battle that Congressional Republicans set for him.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,120
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8248 on: July 14, 2011, 12:59:16 pm »

Wisconsin (Badger Poll):

50% Approve
44% Disapprove

http://www.uwsc.wisc.edu/BP32PressRelease2_USpols_FINAL.pdf
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8249 on: July 14, 2011, 01:07:21 pm »


The Sunshine State Poll for Florida is not worth considering due to editorial bias -- and the 49% nationwide approval poll from Rasmussen. No way is Florida ever R+10! One by ARG shows some matchups involving Obama-Romney and Obama-Bachmann... but no overall approval poll.  I can easily imagine the President being underwater in Iowa now because the Republicans are campaigning actively for advantages in the primary election  and the President isn't.

Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 122
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   119
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 77
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 53
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   10





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 122
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   113
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 83
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 0
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 23
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  35
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 87
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  10  





Logged
Pages: 1 ... 325 326 327 328 329 [330] 331 332 333 334 335 ... 410 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC