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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022453 times)
CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #8550 on: August 15, 2011, 08:49:09 pm »


I'll go out on a limb and declare Utah as "Likely Republican" in 2012

I have DC leaning to the Democrats.

Heck, I would stick my neck out and predict that Hawaii will probably support the Democrat party nominee for President in 2012 while Wyoming will probably support the Republican party nominee in the same year for the same office.
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« Reply #8551 on: August 15, 2011, 10:38:24 pm »

Heck, I would stick my neck out and predict that Hawaii will probably support the Democrat party nominee for President in 2012 while Wyoming will probably support the Republican party nominee in the same year for the same office.

Hawaii's going to specifically support a Thai party's candidate for an office that doesn't currently exist in Thailand? That is an unusual prediction. What's your reasoning?

Agreed on Wyoming.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #8552 on: August 16, 2011, 10:45:00 am »

Heck, I would stick my neck out and predict that Hawaii will probably support the Democrat party nominee for President in 2012 while Wyoming will probably support the Republican party nominee in the same year for the same office.

Hawaii's going to specifically support a Thai party's candidate for an office that doesn't currently exist in Thailand? That is an unusual prediction. What's your reasoning?

Agreed on Wyoming.

So you are a sock puppet.
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« Reply #8553 on: August 16, 2011, 11:05:31 am »

Heck, I would stick my neck out and predict that Hawaii will probably support the Democrat party nominee for President in 2012 while Wyoming will probably support the Republican party nominee in the same year for the same office.

Hawaii's going to specifically support a Thai party's candidate for an office that doesn't currently exist in Thailand? That is an unusual prediction. What's your reasoning?

Agreed on Wyoming.

So you are a sock puppet.

I'm a human being.

You, however, confuse American political parties with ones in other countries with similar names, and thus may well be a poorly-programmed robot (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room).
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J. J.
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« Reply #8554 on: August 16, 2011, 11:19:19 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43, -1.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.

Note that this is the tied for the lowest "Strongly Approved" score.

Ironically, this is not the highest "Strongly Disapprove" score, which was actually higher at this time last year.  If anything, there is less polarization.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8555 on: August 16, 2011, 12:55:43 pm »
« Edited: August 16, 2011, 03:25:05 pm by J. J. »


http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  39%, -2.

Disapprove:  53%, +1.

Still in the trough.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8556 on: August 16, 2011, 12:56:49 pm »

PPP out with their weekly poll for DailyKos and it shows Rasmussen-ish numbers:

43% Approve
53% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling, 1000 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, August 11, 2011 - August 14, 2011.

http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/8/11
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #8557 on: August 16, 2011, 02:00:21 pm »

Obama back to 39%!

http://www.gallup.com/Home.asp​x
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Umengus
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« Reply #8558 on: August 16, 2011, 03:39:47 pm »

obama is collapsing...
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8559 on: August 16, 2011, 03:42:50 pm »
« Edited: August 16, 2011, 03:56:23 pm by Does anybody else miss Bill Clinton? »

Utah gets to show us what 70% disapproval looks like on the map -- very clearly due to its large area.




There are a couple concerns I have with the way you are doing things.

Firstly, the Nate Silver "analysis" of the 50% rule is tragically flawed.  

Most of the data he used was from 2006 - a very good year for the Dems politically. The Dems also had more folks up for reelection in the Senate than did the GOP.   During the 2006 campaign, the political ground shifted quite substantially in favor of the Dems and away from the GOP... so the fact that many (mostly Dem( incumbants did better than their early polling would have suggested is almost certainly the result of the forces of the political tide, and not the consequence of the "50% rule is crap" theory he might be peddling.  

Also, the Gallup data you are using if from the first 6 months of 2011.  During the first half of 2011 Obama had an average approval (simple average of published Gallup daily results) of 47.22% and a disapproval of 44.54%.

By contrast, a simple average of the last 30 days of Gallups daily tracking poll shows an average approval of 42.1% and and average disapproval of 49.73% - In short Obama has gone from about +3 to about -7 relative to the Jan-Jun 2011 data set you are using. (actually +2.68 to - 7.68 for a net shift of -10.36%, I've rounded to 10% because I don't even pretend what I am doing is accurate enough to have .36% matter)

If we adjust the state by state Gallup Data by simply deducting 5% from Obama's approval and adding 5% to his disapproval, we get a very different picture.

Again, let me concede that simply deduct/adding 5% is far from perfect, but as a very broad stroke general rough and dirty tool, it is likely roughly in the ballpark.  In practice, the shift is likely a little greater in "Battleground" states, and a little smaller is states that are safe for either side.



After adjusting for the shift in Gallup's measurement of Obama's approval between the Jan-June data set and the average of the last 30 days, we find that Obama continues to have a net positive approval in 11 states + DC, representing 163 EVS.

District of Columbia
Connecticut
Maryland
Delaware
Hawaii
New York
Massachusetts
Vermont
California
Illinois
New Jersey
Rhode Island

I think Just about everybody would consider these to be "safe" Obama states.

If we (utterly arbitrarily) say any state where Obama has a net approval of Even to -10 to be a "Battleground" state, we get 10 states totaling 128 EVs.  In terms of "Battleground states" these are, well, "The usual suspects" we all know and love....

Minnesota
Washington
Wisconsin
Maine
Michigan
Iowa
Georgia
Pennsylvania
Florida
North Carolina

Not sure about Georgia, but the rest of the list looks pretty sane as a 2012 battleground....

Finally, if we take the states where Obama is -11 net approval or worse, we have 29 states totaling 237 EVs were, based upon net approval, the GOP likely has a leg up.  A couple of these (Nevada and New Mexico pop out) might not quite fit here ("Battleground" might be a better place) but looking over this list, most of these states look likely GOP.

New Mexico
Virginia
Mississippi
Ohio
South Dakota
Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Nevada
Oregon
South Carolina
Indiana
Louisiana
Missouri
Texas
New Hampshire
Alaska
Tennessee
Nebraska
Kansas
North Dakota
Alabama
Kentucky
Montana
West Virginia
Oklahoma
Utah
Wyoming
Idaho

I fully concede this is very rough and dirty, but is should generally capture the impact of the +/- 10% net shift Gallup has tracked since the January-June 2011 data set was collected.

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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #8560 on: August 16, 2011, 03:55:50 pm »

Every time I see pbrower's map with Nebraska still going 1 EV for Obama based on a poll from well over half-a-year ago, I lulz my pants a little bit.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8561 on: August 16, 2011, 04:03:37 pm »

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VT_0808.pdf
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Awful, but you ought to see how the Republican field does:

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It is hard to see the Republicans winning the Presidency without Ohio even if they pick up Pennsylvania. Bad news in which all are culpable pulls everyone down... or should I say, a falling tide brings low all boats!





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    55
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 98
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 66
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    55
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 119
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  29
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 35
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  29
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 87
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 0
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  



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J. J.
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« Reply #8562 on: August 16, 2011, 04:05:48 pm »


Not necessarily.  The loss, at least on Gallup has been gradual.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8563 on: August 16, 2011, 04:10:40 pm »

Every time I see pbrower's map with Nebraska still going 1 EV for Obama based on a poll from well over half-a-year ago, I lulz my pants a little bit.

The Second Congressional District of Nebraska, essentially Greater Omaha, votes very differently (about R+2) from the rest of Nebraska (probably about R+25) Democrats can win NE-02 in a good year, as shown in 2008. Of course that all changes if Nebraska is gerrymandered so that Greater Omaha is split with the rest of eastern Nebraska (NE-01, which includes Lincoln).

In 2008, NE-01 voted like Texas
              NE-02 voted like Indiana
              NE-03 voted like Wyoming.  
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« Reply #8564 on: August 16, 2011, 04:39:38 pm »

Every time I see pbrower's map with Nebraska still going 1 EV for Obama based on a poll from well over half-a-year ago, I lulz my pants a little bit.

The Second Congressional District of Nebraska, essentially Greater Omaha, votes very differently (about R+2) from the rest of Nebraska (probably about R+25) Democrats can win NE-02 in a good year, as shown in 2008. Of course that all changes if Nebraska is gerrymandered so that Greater Omaha is split with the rest of eastern Nebraska (NE-01, which includes Lincoln).

In 2008, NE-01 voted like Texas
              NE-02 voted like Indiana
              NE-03 voted like Wyoming.  

If you say NE-02 is going to vote like Indiana, then your map says that Obama is going to win Indiana by over 10 points.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8565 on: August 16, 2011, 05:11:18 pm »
« Edited: August 17, 2011, 07:43:13 am by pbrower2a »

Every time I see pbrower's map with Nebraska still going 1 EV for Obama based on a poll from well over half-a-year ago, I lulz my pants a little bit.

The Second Congressional District of Nebraska, essentially Greater Omaha, votes very differently (about R+2) from the rest of Nebraska (probably about R+25) Democrats can win NE-02 in a good year, as shown in 2008. Of course that all changes if Nebraska is gerrymandered so that Greater Omaha is split with the rest of eastern Nebraska (NE-01, which includes Lincoln).


In 2008, NE-01 voted like Texas
              NE-02 voted like Indiana
              NE-03 voted like Wyoming.  

If you say NE-02 is going to vote like Indiana, then your map says that Obama is going to win Indiana by over 10 points.

No.

I only said that NE-02 voted like Indiana in 2008. I have said nothing about Indiana as a likely state for either Party in 2012 due only to a paucity of polls. Indiana has outlawed automated polls. There was a poll for NE-02 and it was decidedly pro-Obama in result while the rest of the state firmly rejected the President.

This of course does not reflect the current downturn in support for the President in the aftermath of the Debt Ceiling fiasco. If the approval rating for the President returns to the high 40s, then NE-02 is competitive. Republicans who are no less culpable are doing badly, too.
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President von Cat
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« Reply #8566 on: August 17, 2011, 02:52:27 am »

JJ, why do you always say "meh" to Gallup?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8567 on: August 17, 2011, 05:13:19 am »

New Jersey (Quinnipiac)Sad

44% Approve
52% Disapprove

New Jersey voters say 49 - 45 percent that Obama does not deserve to be reelected, but say 45 - 37 percent that they would vote for Obama over an unnamed Republican challenger in the 2012 presidential race.

From August 9 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,624 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1637
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J. J.
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« Reply #8568 on: August 17, 2011, 07:48:43 am »

JJ, why do you always say "meh" to Gallup?


When I was growing up, and well after that, Gallup was the gold standard of polling.

As of 2000, at least, other companies began getting as good, or better, results.  In the last election, Gallup was well off the others (possibly outside of the MOE).

Gallup's tracking polls has been showing some wide swings.  I think they use registered voters, as opposed to likely voters.

I look at Gallup for historic comparison, because the data from Gallup dates back to the 1940s, though it is more complete after Watergate.  It is a good the only measure of how the President is doing historically against other presidents.  I'm looking at it for the pattern, but not the results.

Right now, the only thing I'm looking for on Gallup is when Obama starts improving, and secondarily, how low will he go before he starts improving.  If the election were held today, I'd be looking to Rasmussen as a more accurate predictor of the result.

(I do realize the irony because I'm not an Obama supporter and he's doing better on Rasmussen.)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8569 on: August 17, 2011, 08:42:29 am »

New Jersey (Quinnipiac)Sad

44% Approve
52% Disapprove

New Jersey voters say 49 - 45 percent that Obama does not deserve to be reelected, but say 45 - 37 percent that they would vote for Obama over an unnamed Republican challenger in the 2012 presidential race.

From August 9 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,624 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1637

We are no longer a happy people.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    41
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 98
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 80
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    55
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 105
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  43
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 35
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  29
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 87
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 0
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  




[/quote]
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« Reply #8570 on: August 17, 2011, 11:43:54 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43, u.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.

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J. J.
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« Reply #8571 on: August 17, 2011, 12:39:33 pm »

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  40%, +1.

Disapprove:  52%, -1.

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« Reply #8572 on: August 17, 2011, 02:50:17 pm »


Very Bad Obama sample dropped today, a very strong Obama sample drops tomorrow - we "might" see a 38% tomorrow... the trough gets a tad deeper..... or (knowing Gallup, he could be back up to 48%....)
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J. J.
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« Reply #8573 on: August 17, 2011, 03:20:40 pm »
« Edited: August 17, 2011, 03:27:49 pm by J. J. »


Very Bad Obama sample dropped today, a very strong Obama sample drops tomorrow - we "might" see a 38% tomorrow... the trough gets a tad deeper..... or (knowing Gallup, he could be back up to 48%....)

I don't think von Kluck has turned yet.  The way it is going, he might not turn southwest until he reaches Versailles.  Wink
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« Reply #8574 on: August 17, 2011, 04:36:16 pm »

Utah gets to show us what 70% disapproval looks like on the map -- very clearly due to its large area.




There are a couple concerns I have with the way you are doing things.

Firstly, the Nate Silver "analysis" of the 50% rule is tragically flawed.  

Most of the data he used was from 2006 - a very good year for the Dems politically. The Dems also had more folks up for reelection in the Senate than did the GOP.   During the 2006 campaign, the political ground shifted quite substantially in favor of the Dems and away from the GOP... so the fact that many (mostly Dem( incumbants did better than their early polling would have suggested is almost certainly the result of the forces of the political tide, and not the consequence of the "50% rule is crap" theory he might be peddling.  

Also, the Gallup data you are using if from the first 6 months of 2011.  During the first half of 2011 Obama had an average approval (simple average of published Gallup daily results) of 47.22% and a disapproval of 44.54%.

By contrast, a simple average of the last 30 days of Gallups daily tracking poll shows an average approval of 42.1% and and average disapproval of 49.73% - In short Obama has gone from about +3 to about -7 relative to the Jan-Jun 2011 data set you are using. (actually +2.68 to - 7.68 for a net shift of -10.36%, I've rounded to 10% because I don't even pretend what I am doing is accurate enough to have .36% matter)

If we adjust the state by state Gallup Data by simply deducting 5% from Obama's approval and adding 5% to his disapproval, we get a very different picture.

Again, let me concede that simply deduct/adding 5% is far from perfect, but as a very broad stroke general rough and dirty tool, it is likely roughly in the ballpark.  In practice, the shift is likely a little greater in "Battleground" states, and a little smaller is states that are safe for either side.



After adjusting for the shift in Gallup's measurement of Obama's approval between the Jan-June data set and the average of the last 30 days, we find that Obama continues to have a net positive approval in 11 states + DC, representing 163 EVS.

District of Columbia
Connecticut
Maryland
Delaware
Hawaii
New York
Massachusetts
Vermont
California
Illinois
New Jersey
Rhode Island

I think Just about everybody would consider these to be "safe" Obama states.

If we (utterly arbitrarily) say any state where Obama has a net approval of Even to -10 to be a "Battleground" state, we get 10 states totaling 128 EVs.  In terms of "Battleground states" these are, well, "The usual suspects" we all know and love....

Minnesota
Washington
Wisconsin
Maine
Michigan
Iowa
Georgia
Pennsylvania
Florida
North Carolina

Not sure about Georgia, but the rest of the list looks pretty sane as a 2012 battleground....

Finally, if we take the states where Obama is -11 net approval or worse, we have 29 states totaling 237 EVs were, based upon net approval, the GOP likely has a leg up.  A couple of these (Nevada and New Mexico pop out) might not quite fit here ("Battleground" might be a better place) but looking over this list, most of these states look likely GOP.

New Mexico
Virginia
Mississippi
Ohio
South Dakota
Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Nevada
Oregon
South Carolina
Indiana
Louisiana
Missouri
Texas
New Hampshire
Alaska
Tennessee
Nebraska
Kansas
North Dakota
Alabama
Kentucky
Montana
West Virginia
Oklahoma
Utah
Wyoming
Idaho

I fully concede this is very rough and dirty, but is should generally capture the impact of the +/- 10% net shift Gallup has tracked since the January-June 2011 data set was collected.



I see the recent low point of approval for President Obama reflecting the nastiness of the budget debate. Almost nobody is ever happy with the results of any budget debate on every detail. This applies to state governors as well.   Take a look at what happened to the approval ratings of Tom Corbett and Chris Christie (both Republicans) just a few weeks after vicious legislative sessions on state budgets. During the debate, both sides demonize each other, especially when public opinion is as polarized as it is. But once it is over, things go back more or less to normal. Heck, even Scott Walker has gone from 'execrable' ratings for his approval to simply 'bad'.

To say that the budgeting is the most important peacetime legislation in Congress and the most important part of the political  scene in State governments may be no exaggeration. This is when the values of the legislative branch as elected define themselves as at almost no other time. Budgetary debates are not where one makes friends and impresses the electorate.

If there is any conclusion that I can draw it is that the Debt Ceiling squabble hurt the approval ratings of both Democrats and Republicans equally. If it were good for republicans and bad for Democrats, then we would  see prospective Republican nominees for President catching up with President Obama. Such has yet to happen. Mitt Romney, now a political outsider who put his moistened finger into the air during the Debt Ceiling debate, felt which part of his finger was coolest and decided to avoid weighing into the debate while it was going on and then made cheap shots at the President like all other Republicans, gained nothing.

President Obama is still ahead of every prospective Republican nominee in Ohio, Colorado, and North Carolina after the debate.  He has since gone on tour in the Midwest to do what he is especially good at -- making fresh promises of achievements that he might have gotten if the Democrats still held the House.

You have a valid case for this debate being the start of the downfall of President Obama with someone like Rick Perry defeating him in November 2012 with the Republicans picking up a raft of Senate seats and a few House seats... if there is no political rebound for the President but there is for all Republicans. Yes, the Republicans will rebound some -- but more than the President?  

Little Congressional activity will go on for a few weeks. Politicians will be going out on junkets,  returning to their districts, or going on well-deserved vacations. Maybe some not-so-well deserved, but that is a matter of judgment. All in all, most people are likely to forget the acrimony of the deficit debate except to the extent that some politicians made fools of themselves. Those who made fools of themselves will usually be the last to get the message.

The President is far more popular than Congress and almost certainly will be again in October.   Except for the Deficit Ceiling debate, conditions two months from now will likely be much like they were in June. That includes approval ratings. Gaps of approval that were 48-45 in June and are now  45-42 now could easily be 48-45 again in October.  

Until I see otherwise I expect to see the President rebound, but I can't predict how quickly he will.  
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