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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022913 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #8600 on: August 19, 2011, 04:43:30 pm »

Obama's downward slide, which isn't much, has continued after the debt debate.  I'm not seeing a connection.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8601 on: August 19, 2011, 05:40:05 pm »
« Edited: August 19, 2011, 05:48:22 pm by The Vorlon »

Obama's downward slide, which isn't much, has continued after the debt debate.  I'm not seeing a connection.

FWIW....

Gallup is quite volatile and it showing Obama at 40% may, or may not, just be one of the tangents Gallup tends to run off on.

Rasmussen which is, by design, very stable shows Obama has dropped 3 ish % or so.

THe RCP average peeked with Obama at +9.9% post Bin Laden killing, he is now 6% or so under water.

A 16% or 17% net swing (+10 to -7 or so) is a heck of a move.



Looking at the trend lines of the RCP average, Obama seems to be losing the day to day battles, his trend line is generally down, but he can and does jump up fairly sharply when there is a "big event" - Killing Bin Laden gave him a sharp jump, as did the semi-deal on taxes where all Americans were spared a tax increase for two more yeas by kicking the Bush Tax Cut expiration down the road till 2013.

Oddly, preserving the tax cuts gave him a bounce that lasted, killing Bin laden did not.

Right now all polls, have very little predictive value.

Th Obama job approval numbers are a rough gauge, but until is 2012, even those have highly limited predictive value.

In October 2012, if BHO's JA is 50%+, he almost certainly wins.
In October 2012, if BHO's JA is <40%, he almost certainly loses.

The head to heads are meaningless right now because most folks are tuned out and don't care.  

The "Generic" ballot will (kinda) tell us if it's gonna be a close race, but beyond that they are pretty limited as well...

At this time in 1979 Carter was kicking the bleep out of some crazy guy from California who was so extreme he could never ever become president...

In 2001 GHW Bush was so far in front, no "big name" democrats (ie Mario Cuomo) was even brave enough to run for President...

14 or so months out head to head presidentials are an "inside baseball" distraction for political junkies, beyond that they have no value.


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J. J.
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« Reply #8602 on: August 19, 2011, 10:36:09 pm »

I disagree a bit.

Carter, at this point in time, was at 33%, and was off his low (28%).

I'm looking at, basically, is how much ground can a president make up in the last 18 months of office.  How much off their low can they go.

Nixon gained 11 points of his 18 month prior low.

Ford gained 9 points.

Carter gained 13 points. 

Reagan gained 13 points.

GHWB gained 8 points. 

Clinton gained 4 points.

GWB had about a 5 point gain.

The average is about 9 points.

Obama would need to gain 10-11 points to win, in most cases.  That is possible, though the odds are slightly against it, arguably.  That assumes that his numbers don't further decline.



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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8603 on: August 19, 2011, 11:40:26 pm »
« Edited: August 19, 2011, 11:43:12 pm by The Vorlon »

I disagree a bit.

Carter, at this point in time, was at 33%, and was off his low (28%).

I'm looking at, basically, is how much ground can a president make up in the last 18 months of office.  How much off their low can they go.

Nixon gained 11 points of his 18 month prior low.

Ford gained 9 points.

Carter gained 13 points.  

Reagan gained 13 points.

GHWB gained 8 points.  

Clinton gained 4 points.

GWB had about a 5 point gain.

The average is about 9 points.

Obama would need to gain 10-11 points to win, in most cases.  That is possible, though the odds are slightly against it, arguably.  That assumes that his numbers don't further decline.


I guess my point is that past presidents have have improved to greater or lesser degrees because of events, and those events - looking forward - are unpredictable.

Ford gained 9 points.

Ford took over from a disgraced Nixon, his numbers started to improve as he became his own man and moved out of tricky Dick's shadow.

Carter gained 13 points.  

Carter was hugely in the tank (High 20s as I recall?) but bounced back initially as the people rallied around the President in the beginnings of the hostage crisis - also back then there was no internet or alternative media so for a while the Dems + Networks = NYT almost scared folks out of voting for Reagan.

Reagan gained 13 points.

Went from 10.8% unemployment to "morning in America" - nuff said...

GHWB gained 8 points.  - GHWB likely would have won if not for Perot - Slick Willy won with only 43% of the vote.

Clinton gained 4 points. - hard pivot to triangulation, cut a deal with Newt and the boys to save his skin.

GWB had about a 5 point gain.

The Bush folks did a better job of Demonizing Kerry than Kerry's folks did of demonizing Bush. - Also, Karl Rove put together an awesome "ground game" in Florida, Ohio, etc...

My point is presidents don't just "rebound" they rebound as a result of events and policies....

If Obama finds a brain and a spine in the next year he has a chance, if not, well, not...  but his approval will not, in the absence of some external factor, rise on it's own....
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« Reply #8604 on: August 19, 2011, 11:58:56 pm »

GHWB likely would have won if not for Perot

Can't believe anyone still believes this.
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President von Cat
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« Reply #8605 on: August 20, 2011, 12:07:11 am »

Alas, Vorlon, that is completely untrue.

Obama's ratings will rise on their own if the economy churns out a few decent jobs reports in August, September, October, and we stop having turbulent weeks on Wall Street. Q3 and Q4 are said to look stronger than the 1H of 2011, and any uptick in economic behavior is easily enough to move Obama back to the mid-to-upper 40s, which is exactly where he started the year and basically has been since late 2009.

It should surprise nobody that Obama's approval rating on Gallup hit 39% following his sub-par performance in debt ceiling negotiations and subsequent credit downgrade and financial market turmoil. This should be subsiding, and perhaps a decent August jobs report will help turn the corner.

Now, does that mean the president should just sit back and take it easy? Of course not. He has nothing to lose by pushing a jobs plan (or two, or several hundred!). But to say that Obama has to do something to make his approval ratings move just isn't true.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8606 on: August 20, 2011, 01:04:10 am »



I guess my point is that past presidents have have improved to greater or lesser degrees because of events, and those events - looking forward - are unpredictable.

Ford gained 9 points.

Ford took over from a disgraced Nixon, his numbers started to improve as he became his own man and moved out of tricky Dick's shadow.


Ford dropped from the low 50's to 39 about a year before the election.  It was a job performance issue.

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He had started to recover before that and again fell after the hostage crisis became a liability.


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I think he still would have lost, but, poll wise GHWB troughed in the late spring of 1992.  Again job performace

Reagan, Clinton and GWB, job performance.

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They tend to improve when what they do works.  The question is still, when do Obama's number start turning up?
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Penelope
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« Reply #8607 on: August 20, 2011, 01:06:13 am »

I'll predict that his approvals will be back in the high forties after he releases his jobs program, and it'll probably rise a bit more around the 10th Anniversary of 9/11.
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Iosif
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« Reply #8608 on: August 20, 2011, 05:49:30 am »

Got to love the armchair experts in this thread.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8609 on: August 20, 2011, 09:07:27 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, u.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

It is possible that a small pro Obama sample is moving through the numbers, but I think it is more likely that a small anti Obama sample was moving through and dropped out yesterday.

I'll predict that his approvals will be back in the high forties after he releases his jobs program, and it'll probably rise a bit more around the 10th Anniversary of 9/11.

I'd doubt that there will be any improvement due to the Anniversary.

If his program is a "jobs program," as opposed to an economic program, his numbers could drop.  I think this might be the last chance for him to improve his numbers prior to the campaign (absent an outside factor).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8610 on: August 20, 2011, 09:32:22 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, u.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

It is possible that a small pro Obama sample is moving through the numbers, but I think it is more likely that a small anti Obama sample was moving through and dropped out yesterday.

I'll predict that his approvals will be back in the high forties after he releases his jobs program, and it'll probably rise a bit more around the 10th Anniversary of 9/11.

I'd doubt that there will be any improvement due to the Anniversary.

If his program is a "jobs program," as opposed to an economic program, his numbers could drop.  I think this might be the last chance for him to improve his numbers prior to the campaign (absent an outside factor).

9/11 is not for President Obama to exploit except to drop hints that Osama bin Laden is not celebrating the anniversary somewhere in This World.

Any "jobs program" other than one in which the jobs have no pay attached or rely entirely upon new and bigger tax cuts for the super-rich will face stiff Republican resistance. That might be good for 2012, but in the meantime...
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President von Cat
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« Reply #8611 on: August 20, 2011, 10:08:28 am »

If Gaddafi goes, Obama is likely to get a mini-bounce of a point or so.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8612 on: August 20, 2011, 10:24:56 am »

If Gaddafi goes, Obama is likely to get a mini-bounce of a point or so.

I'd doubt that.  America has not been focused on Libya, and the results could be worse.
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President von Cat
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« Reply #8613 on: August 20, 2011, 11:20:48 am »
« Edited: August 20, 2011, 11:24:08 am by captain copernicus »

Americans like "feel good" stories, especially those about helping others overthrow despots. If Gaddafi's exit becomes front-page news, it'll be accompanied by a television blitz of people dancing in Misrata, Benghazi, Zlitan etc. All it takes is a camera crew catching just one group of rebel fighters waving the American flag around, and it'll get broadcast into every home via Nightly News. Even better, there's the possibility of MENA political analysts and opposition figures singing America's good graces on cable television across the country. It could very well create an ephemeral "feel good" moment, and you can bet that Obama will get some credit for it, as he should, even if it proves just as short-lived as the moment.
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« Reply #8614 on: August 20, 2011, 11:55:27 am »

Got to love the armchair experts in this thread Atlas.

Seriously. Outside the 3 or 4 actual professionals here, doesn't that constitute all of us? Grin
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J. J.
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« Reply #8615 on: August 20, 2011, 11:58:37 am »
« Edited: August 21, 2011, 12:10:26 pm by J. J. »

Got to love the armchair experts in this thread Atlas.

Seriously. Outside the 3 or 4 actual professionals here, doesn't that constitute all of us? Grin

And I've had some training in it, at least, though I've not done it professionally.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8616 on: August 20, 2011, 12:17:13 pm »


http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  42%, +2.

Disapprove:  51%, -2.

Is von Kluck turning southeast?  Maybe.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8617 on: August 21, 2011, 08:40:15 am »
« Edited: August 22, 2011, 09:01:55 am by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, -1.

Disapprove 55%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +2.

There was no post debt ceiling debate recovery.




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J. J.
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« Reply #8618 on: August 21, 2011, 12:12:54 pm »


http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  40%, -2.

Disapprove:  53%, +2.

[sarcasm]Gallup continues it's record of providing hugely stable poll numbers.[/sarcasm]
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J. J.
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« Reply #8619 on: August 22, 2011, 08:57:44 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, u.

Disapprove 55%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, u.

There might have been a slightly pro-Obama sample that dropped out.





[/quote]
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J. J.
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« Reply #8620 on: August 22, 2011, 12:38:10 pm »
« Edited: August 23, 2011, 08:34:57 am by J. J. »


http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  40%, u.

Disapprove:  53%, u.

Von Kluck still heading toward Paris.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8621 on: August 23, 2011, 02:15:56 am »

PPP's weekly poll for DailyKos/SEIU:

42% Approve (-1)
53% Disapprove (nc)

Out of a 39%D, 33%R, 28%I sample.

Public Policy Polling, 1000 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, August 18, 2011 - August 21, 2011.

http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/8/18
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« Reply #8622 on: August 23, 2011, 02:26:25 am »

Polls are really similar right now when it comes to Obama's approval.

If we assign the undecideds in the Gallup and PPP polls, it turns out to about 43-44% approval and 55-57% disapproval for Obama.

Gallup: 40-53 with 7% undecided, lets say they split 3-4 and we have a 43-57 approval.

Rasmussen: 44-55 with 1% undecided, which is about 44.5-55.5 approval.

PPP: 42-53 with 5% undecided, let's say 2-3 for the undecideds and we get a 44-56 approval.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8623 on: August 23, 2011, 08:56:13 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, u.

Disapprove 56%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, +1.

Obama's Strongly Disapprove number is now higher than his overall approval number and his Strongly Approve number is tied for its low point.

His disapproved number, while not its highest, was only higher five days in his term to date.  His approval number was lower about 18 days than it is now.

The gap between his Strongly Disapprove and Strongly Approve is now at its greatest negative point recorded so far.







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Rowan
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« Reply #8624 on: August 23, 2011, 12:13:45 pm »

Gallup at 38%. New low.
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