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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #8725 on: September 02, 2011, 10:42:27 am »

Is Obama improving his numbers???
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J. J.
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« Reply #8726 on: September 02, 2011, 10:56:52 am »


Not on Rasmussen.  He was actually a bit stronger at the start of the week.

On Gallup, he's off his lows but still within the MOE.  I'm paying particular attention to when he "troughs," i.e. hit his low point and starts recovering.  He might have, but the last time it looked like he "might" have, he fell back.

Yes, I'm expecting Obama to recover prior to the election.  His low numbers are survivable, though it is getting close to the point of no return.
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President von Cat
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« Reply #8727 on: September 02, 2011, 12:12:14 pm »

Well, today's horrible jobs report is probably going to increase worries of a double dip, which is going to keep him in the low 40s or high 30s for the foreseeable future.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8728 on: September 02, 2011, 01:38:58 pm »
« Edited: September 02, 2011, 06:09:50 pm by J. J. »

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  42%, u.

Disapprove:  50%, u.


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8729 on: September 02, 2011, 04:53:15 pm »
« Edited: September 02, 2011, 08:15:19 pm by pbrower2a »

Kentucky:

Quote
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But even with this poor result for approval of the President, Barack Obama still is behind Romney by 8%, Perry by 7%, and Bachmann by 3%. I'm not going to even mention Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich, whose atrocious performances in a state that Dubya won by roughly 15% twice now suggests a travesty if included. President Obama will likely gain more than 6% from his approval rating, but even at that he would still lose the state by ione of the largest margins in America. The rules of my model suggest that Kentucky is out of reach for the President.







Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 104
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 48
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 41
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   26





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    35
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 117
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  63
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 9
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  26
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  26  

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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8730 on: September 02, 2011, 05:28:03 pm »
« Edited: September 02, 2011, 05:30:27 pm by The Vorlon »


http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  42%, u.

Disapprove:  50%, u.

WE have had Obama bounce around a fair bit in Gallup.

Can't quite tell it ifs really good samples now and then bouncing him up to 42% or very bad samples now and then dropping him into the thirties.

Think it's the latter actually, but no real way to tell.

Just about everybody says 40-45%, so unless the economy turns around he is in for a really tough race.




Corrected Smiley
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J. J.
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« Reply #8731 on: September 02, 2011, 06:21:24 pm »


WE have had Obama bounce around a fair bit in Gallup.

Can't quite tell it ifs really good samples now and then bouncing him up to 42% or very bad samples now and then dropping him into the thirties.

Think it's the latter actually, but no real way to tell.

Just about everybody says 40-45%, so unless the economy turns around he is in for a really tough race.




Corrected Smiley
[/quote]

Got it.  But there was no change.  It is the same from yesterday.  The movement was only about 4 points over 3-4 days, off a low.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #8732 on: September 02, 2011, 09:40:19 pm »


Not on Rasmussen.  He was actually a bit stronger at the start of the week.

On Gallup, he's off his lows but still within the MOE.  I'm paying particular attention to when he "troughs," i.e. hit his low point and starts recovering.  He might have, but the last time it looked like he "might" have, he fell back.

Yes, I'm expecting Obama to recover prior to the election.  His low numbers are survivable, though it is getting close to the point of no return.

He's going to need to get back to at least 48% by next fall if he is going to win reelection. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #8733 on: September 02, 2011, 11:15:56 pm »


Not on Rasmussen.  He was actually a bit stronger at the start of the week.

On Gallup, he's off his lows but still within the MOE.  I'm paying particular attention to when he "troughs," i.e. hit his low point and starts recovering.  He might have, but the last time it looked like he "might" have, he fell back.

Yes, I'm expecting Obama to recover prior to the election.  His low numbers are survivable, though it is getting close to the point of no return.

Quote
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Just to be clear, that is not my comment.  Right now, Obama is in the range where hope is not lost.  He's rapidly approaching the point where he probably cannot recover.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8734 on: September 03, 2011, 06:08:43 am »

New Jersey (Kean University Center for History, Politics and Policy)Sad

53% Approve
44% Disapprove

(Gov. Christie)

54% Approve
44% Disapprove

The New Jersey Speaks poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters in New Jersey on August 30. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3 points.

The Kean University Center for History, Politics and Policy was founded in July by Dr. Dawood Farahi, president of Kean University. “The center will provide a wealth of expertise and analysis from Kean University's faculty,” Dr. Farahi said. “Whether the conversation concerns climate change, human rights, New Jersey politics, or computer literacy, Kean University faculty have the knowledge and wisdom to enrich our civic conversation. The Center for History, Politics and Policy will bring that knowledge and wisdom into the global community.”

http://www.kean.edu/pressreleases/2011/09/02_PresidentArrivesNJ.asp
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J. J.
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« Reply #8735 on: September 03, 2011, 08:51:23 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, +1.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.

Possibly some movement toward Obama or statistical noise. 
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sentinel
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« Reply #8736 on: September 03, 2011, 11:01:23 am »

I based this on the decent aggregate of polls that Wikipedia has for state head-to-head polling.

This is for an Perry-Obama matchup without me including any of my own opinions. Took the most recent poll, regardless of how close it was or who had a majority (or lack there of).



Obama-178
Perry - 17
No poll: 343

If I throw in the states that we can pretty much call already...(shaded 90%)



Obama - 385
Perry - 153

Now I think it'd be a little weird if Texas went Democrat and Georgia or Arizona didn't --so this exact result is unrealistic --but the way Perry is polling even when Obama's numbers are down isn't great.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8737 on: September 03, 2011, 12:26:40 pm »


http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  42%, u.

Disapprove:  51%, +1.



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President von Cat
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« Reply #8738 on: September 03, 2011, 03:21:48 pm »

It is going to be hard not obsess over his opinion polls over the next few days. It is hard to believe that he will manage to stay in the 40s with an economy headed back into recession.
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« Reply #8739 on: September 03, 2011, 07:18:49 pm »

For the fun of it, I took the most recent polling data from here to make a map.  Call me pBrower Tongue

I did not mess with the numbers in any way.  Note that in cases where there were polls available for both "named opponent" and "generic republican," I selected "named opponent" in all cases except those in which the only named opponent is not running or the poll is extremely outdated (older than six months, so the oldest polls should date back to March).  States for which no polls that meet this criteria and that are not "junk" exist have been colored grey.

In cases where reliable results exist for more then one credible republican candidate that is currently running, I have averaged them together.  This is why Florida is colored red despite Romney's tie in the latest Quinippiac poll against Obama.  States that average out to be in a tie (actual, not statistical) are colored white.

I have shamelessly stolen the color scheme from pBrower.  Keep in mind, the map shows margins.
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%
white                        tie (margin 1% or less)
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin
deep blue                 Republican over 10%


In this map, I averaged together the scores of Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Michelle Bachmann, and Herman Cain (or any combination thereof).



This map combines Romney with Perry, or Bachmann if he is unavailable (and in the case of Georgia, with Cain).  I also took the precaution of including each individual poll's margin of error in this map.  Hopefully, this one is a bit more accurate.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8740 on: September 03, 2011, 09:17:31 pm »

New Jersey (Kean University Center for History, Politics and Policy)Sad

53% Approve
44% Disapprove

(Gov. Christie)

54% Approve
44% Disapprove

The New Jersey Speaks poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters in New Jersey on August 30. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3 points.

The Kean University Center for History, Politics and Policy was founded in July by Dr. Dawood Farahi, president of Kean University. “The center will provide a wealth of expertise and analysis from Kean University's faculty,” Dr. Farahi said. “Whether the conversation concerns climate change, human rights, New Jersey politics, or computer literacy, Kean University faculty have the knowledge and wisdom to enrich our civic conversation. The Center for History, Politics and Policy will bring that knowledge and wisdom into the global community.”

http://www.kean.edu/pressreleases/2011/09/02_PresidentArrivesNJ.asp






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 104
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 48
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 41
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   26





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    49
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 117
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 9
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  26
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  26  


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J. J.
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« Reply #8741 on: September 04, 2011, 08:57:27 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, -1.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +2.

No movement toward Obama. 

I think we can rule out a "debt ceiling slump" or an "Irene boost."

It looks like a slump in Obama's numbers since mid-July, with it expanding in early August.  He is not in free fall.

It is like he took a step down on the stairs in July, and then another one in August.  He has not tripped and fallen down the stairs, however.
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« Reply #8742 on: September 04, 2011, 11:58:26 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, -1.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +2.

No movement toward Obama. 

I think we can rule out a "debt ceiling slump" or an "Irene boost."

It looks like a slump in Obama's numbers since mid-July, with it expanding in early August.  He is not in free fall.

It is like he took a step down on the stairs in July, and then another one in August.  He has not tripped and fallen down the stairs, however.

President Obama has been in the 45% territory before.  He isn't campaigning (although we will get a taste of that on the most politicized day of the year for Democrats tomorrow). The debt ceiling debate was a disaster for all involved We might find out soon enough whether the public responses to Hurricane Irene put egg on the faces of some politicians.

We have been fortunate to have some comparatively mild hurricane seasons in 2009 and 2010. We know what Hurricane Katrina did in 2005 to the GOP. Short of wars (we seem to be losing opportunities for military glory), major legislation (like it or not, President Obama got that in 2009 and 2010), and big diplomatic successes (the Arab Spring so far looks good) the test of a President as an administrator is the natural disaster. Any effects of the response to Hurricane Irene will appear next week. Sure, we have usually taken the response to a natural disaster for granted as a political matter -- but not since Hurricane Katrina.

PPP is polling North Carolina this weekend. 

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Penelope
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« Reply #8743 on: September 04, 2011, 12:52:58 pm »

Yes, that makes perfect sense. Last month his approvals were in the 30s, and now they are in the 40s.

He just keeps going lower and lower!
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J. J.
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« Reply #8744 on: September 04, 2011, 01:30:21 pm »


http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  42%, u.

Disapprove:  50%, -1.



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J. J.
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« Reply #8745 on: September 04, 2011, 01:35:46 pm »

Yes, that makes perfect sense. Last month his approvals were in the 30s, and now they are in the 40s.

He just keeps going lower and lower!

Actually, there has not been that much change on Gallup.  He is at 40, +/- 2.  That's been his weekly average for 1-2 weeks.

Disapprove has dropped a bit.

Rasmussen has him fairly stable.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8746 on: September 04, 2011, 06:22:11 pm »
« Edited: September 04, 2011, 06:24:04 pm by The Vorlon »

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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #8747 on: September 04, 2011, 06:42:04 pm »


This isn't the President Forever results thread.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8748 on: September 04, 2011, 06:44:44 pm »


This is a realignment map.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8749 on: September 04, 2011, 09:48:44 pm »

California:

Quote
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http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-0905-poll-presidential-20110905,0,6048766.story






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 54
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    80
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 104
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 48
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 41
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   26





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 54
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    104
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 117
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 9
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  26
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  26  



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