Home
2018
Election Results
Election Info
Weblog
Wiki
Search
Email
Site Info
Store
Welcome,
Guest
. Please
login
or
register
.
Did you miss your
activation email?
February 22, 2019, 11:59:30 am
News:
Please delete your old personal messages.
Atlas Forum
Election Archive
Election Archive
All Archived Boards
2012 Elections
The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous
next »
Pages:
1
...
356
357
358
359
360
[
361
]
362
363
364
365
366
...
410
Author
Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (Read 991673 times)
BigSkyBob
YaBB God
Posts: 2,416
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9000 on:
October 23, 2011, 12:06:36 am »
Quote from: Counting 9's to Sleep on October 22, 2011, 04:14:58 pm
Just for reference, when did President Reagan's approval ratings start increasing enough to ensure his reelection?
Close to the time the economy starting perking up significantly.
Logged
The real scandal in Washington is not the bribery, corruption, or sex. It is how poorly we are governed. That has begun to change with the election Donald Trump.
BigSkyBob
YaBB God
Posts: 2,416
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9001 on:
October 23, 2011, 12:08:15 am »
Quote from: bryan on October 22, 2011, 04:09:32 pm
So, should we start checking to see if Obama's disapproval can stay below 50%?
I'm looking for Rasmussen's strong disapproval ratings reaching the upper 40's.
Logged
The real scandal in Washington is not the bribery, corruption, or sex. It is how poorly we are governed. That has begun to change with the election Donald Trump.
J. J.
YaBB God
Posts: 32,809
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9002 on:
October 23, 2011, 09:33:12 am »
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 43, +1.
Disapprove 56%, u.
"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, u. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.
Logged
J. J.
"Actually, .. now that you mention it...."
- Londo Molari
"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke
"Wa sala, wa lala."
(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
J. J.
YaBB God
Posts: 32,809
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9003 on:
October 23, 2011, 10:32:48 am »
Quote from: Counting 9's to Sleep on October 22, 2011, 04:14:58 pm
Just for reference, when did President Reagan's approval ratings start increasing enough to ensure his reelection?
On Gallup, an important qualifier, RWR hit is low of 35% in late January 1983. By this point in 1983, RWR was at 49%, so he had hit his low and recovered a lot.
GHWB, by contrast, was at 66% at this point 1991, but he had had a steep decline from 89% in March (not unexpectedly).
BHO, on the same poll, hit his low of 40% in October of this year and is at 41% in late October.
Note that I am using this chart for historic comparisons.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx
I basically am looking for the point where the incumbent hits the low point and starts improving. My analogy is from WW I, "von Kluck's Turn." It was the point where the situation began to get a bit better for the Allies. Obama, may have hit that point.
Logged
J. J.
"Actually, .. now that you mention it...."
- Londo Molari
"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke
"Wa sala, wa lala."
(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
President von Cat
captain copernicus
YaBB God
Posts: 619
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9004 on:
October 23, 2011, 03:30:17 pm »
Gallup:
Approve: 44%, +1
Disapprove: 47% -2
Perhaps some movement due to the end of Gaddafi, the end of the Iraq War and relatively decent nuts and bolts economic data? Big corporations had good earnings releases, jobless claims are below 400,000 and the DJI had a great close on Friday.
Lets wait and see how he is doing a week from now before we say he has turned a corner. Financial markets may get bludgeoned if Europe doesn't deliver this week, and that may set back Obama's approvals.
«
Last Edit: October 23, 2011, 04:21:10 pm by bryan
»
Logged
Quote from: Senator Berkley on November 08, 2012, 06:22:08 pm
It makes me happy Republicans will never be able to say they defeated Obama. Never ever.
Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018
BushOklahoma
YaBB God
Posts: 24,938
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9005 on:
October 23, 2011, 04:34:21 pm »
Quote from: J. J. on October 23, 2011, 10:32:48 am
Quote from: Counting 9's to Sleep on October 22, 2011, 04:14:58 pm
Just for reference, when did President Reagan's approval ratings start increasing enough to ensure his reelection?
On Gallup, an important qualifier, RWR hit is low of 35% in late January 1983. By this point in 1983, RWR was at 49%, so he had hit his low and recovered a lot.
GHWB, by contrast, was at 66% at this point 1991, but he had had a steep decline from 89% in March (not unexpectedly).
BHO, on the same poll, hit his low of 40% in October of this year and is at 41% in late October.
Note that I am using this chart for historic comparisons.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx
I basically am looking for the point where the incumbent hits the low point and starts improving. My analogy is from WW I, "von Kluck's Turn." It was the point where the situation began to get a bit better for the Allies. Obama, may have hit that point.
IMHO, Obama better start improving quick with the Republican primaries around the corner and the general election only 12 1/2 months away. If Reagan started improving some 9-10 months before this point in 1983, and Obama has only "improved" 1 point, he'd better get busy or he could be a gonner.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
Posts: 32,809
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9006 on:
October 23, 2011, 04:55:37 pm »
Quote from: bryan on October 23, 2011, 03:30:17 pm
Gallup:
Approve: 44%, +1
Disapprove: 47% -2
Perhaps some movement due to the end of Gaddafi, the end of the Iraq War and relatively decent nuts and bolts economic data? Big corporations had good earnings releases, jobless claims are below 400,000 and the DJI had a great close on Friday.
Lets wait and see how he is doing a week from now before we say he has turned a corner. Financial markets may get bludgeoned if Europe doesn't deliver this week, and that may set back Obama's approvals.
Or just noise.
Logged
J. J.
"Actually, .. now that you mention it...."
- Londo Molari
"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke
"Wa sala, wa lala."
(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
Posts: 4,653
Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9007 on:
October 24, 2011, 12:20:51 pm »
Gallup:
Approve 42
Disapprove 50
http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx
Bouncing around a lot, even for Gallup.
30 and 60 day averages are staying at -10 or so.
Looking at all the polls Obama may be firming up a tad.
When in doubt - look at the NBC/WSJ poll which says 44/51, which to my eyes looks pretty darn close to reality.
«
Last Edit: October 24, 2011, 06:40:27 pm by The Vorlon
»
Logged
No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...
Thomas Jefferson
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
Posts: 4,653
Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9008 on:
October 24, 2011, 12:22:17 pm »
Quote from: J. J. on October 23, 2011, 04:55:37 pm
Or just noise.
When Gallup is running off on it's own, usually the best bet
Logged
No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...
Thomas Jefferson
J. J.
YaBB God
Posts: 32,809
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9009 on:
October 24, 2011, 02:19:56 pm »
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 45, +2.
Disapprove 54%, -2.
"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -1. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -3.
«
Last Edit: October 25, 2011, 09:04:38 am by J. J.
»
Logged
J. J.
"Actually, .. now that you mention it...."
- Londo Molari
"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke
"Wa sala, wa lala."
(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
J. J.
YaBB God
Posts: 32,809
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9010 on:
October 25, 2011, 09:07:33 am »
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 44%, -1.
Disapprove 54%, u.
"Strongly Approve" is at 18%, -1. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.
The Strongly Approve number is now at a record low, though it just could be a natural swing.
[Fixed "Approved." It was down by one, not two, points.]
«
Last Edit: October 26, 2011, 09:11:01 am by J. J.
»
Logged
J. J.
"Actually, .. now that you mention it...."
- Londo Molari
"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke
"Wa sala, wa lala."
(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
Posts: 4,653
Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9011 on:
October 25, 2011, 11:02:09 am »
Quote from: J. J. on October 25, 2011, 09:07:33 am
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 44%, -2.
Disapprove 54%, u.
"Strongly Approve" is at 18%, -1. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.
The Strongly Approve number is now at a record low, though it just could be a natural swing.
Pretty much the same strong approve / strong disapprove numbers that Democracy Corpse (D) got. - 21 versus -22.
Strongly approve ..................................................................21
Somewhat approve ..............................................................19
Somewhat disapprove..........................................................11
Strongly disapprove .............................................................42
When Bush was in the mid to high 40s in 2003 and 2004, at least his "strong approve" numbers were still not too far off his strong disapprove.
In the context of such a large enthusiasm gap, Obama's efforts to throw some "red meat" to the Democratic base make a lot of sense. - Bush beat Kerry in 2004 (mostly) because the Bush folks loved Bush a bit more than the Kerry folks hated him. I think Obama's more
class warfare
(edit, trying to resist trolling tendency) "populist" focus of late lies in the reality.
Logged
No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...
Thomas Jefferson
pbrower2a
YaBB God
Posts: 19,793
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9012 on:
October 25, 2011, 02:08:13 pm »
Quote from: The Vorlon on October 25, 2011, 11:02:09 am
Quote from: J. J. on October 25, 2011, 09:07:33 am
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 44%, -2.
Disapprove 54%, u.
"Strongly Approve" is at 18%, -1. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.
The Strongly Approve number is now at a record low, though it just could be a natural swing.
Pretty much the same strong approve / strong disapprove numbers that Democracy Corpse (D) got. - 21 versus -22.
Strongly approve ..................................................................21
Somewhat approve ..............................................................19
Somewhat disapprove..........................................................11
Strongly disapprove .............................................................42
When Bush was in the mid to high 40s in 2003 and 2004, at least his "strong approve" numbers were still not too far off his strong disapprove.
In the context of such a large enthusiasm gap, Obama's efforts to throw some "red meat" to the Democratic base make a lot of sense. - Bush beat Kerry in 2004 (mostly) because the Bush folks loved Bush a bit more than the Kerry folks hated him. I think Obama's more
class warfare
(edit, trying to resist trolling tendency) "populist" focus of late lies in the reality.
President Obama didn't run as a populist in 2008. He steered clear of class warfare, seeming to suggest that (as Ronald Reagan did) that a rising tide raises all boats. It is unambiguously clear that the recovery that we have (or had) has been uneven in results.
The Tea Party that formed to oppose him and restore the power of the Right found its populist appeal first -- even if the appeal has huge faults, as it has proved anti-worker and anti-middle-class. That sort of populism has huge faults.
People are angry at elites who have waxed fat while degrading everyone else. If the prosperity that those elites seek depends upon the impoverishing of everyone else, then it will be difficult for Republicans to defend those elites and the objectives of those elites.
President Obama has stayed clear of negativistic smears upon his rivals. So far he is positioning himself first against the Republicans in Congress. The negative ads against any Republican nominee are likely to begin at an apt time.
Logged
Your political compass
Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
J. J.
YaBB God
Posts: 32,809
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9013 on:
October 26, 2011, 09:09:27 am »
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 43%, -1.
Disapprove 55%, +1.
"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, +1. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.
Logged
J. J.
"Actually, .. now that you mention it...."
- Londo Molari
"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke
"Wa sala, wa lala."
(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
pbrower2a
YaBB God
Posts: 19,793
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9014 on:
October 26, 2011, 11:22:53 am »
I am not resuscitating the old map that I created. It had gotten messy.
It may be hard to believe that the President can win a state despite a plurality of people in the state believing that he does not deserve a second term and despite having an approval rating of 43% or so nationwide. Ohio, not surprisingly, is very close to the national average. The President can win without Ohio, but he can hardly lose with it. No current GOP candidate can win without Ohio.
Quote
President Barack Obama's job approval rating and re-elect numbers remain underwater among Ohio voters, who disapprove 51 - 43 percent and say 49 - 44 percent the president does not deserve a second term, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
Despite his negative scores, the president leads potential Republican challengers:
47 - 39 percent over Cain;
45 - 41 percent over Romney;
47 - 36 percent over Perry.
No American likes his own economic distress... but no GOP candidate seems to offer a viable alternative.
Logged
Your political compass
Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
Posts: 4,653
Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9015 on:
October 26, 2011, 04:51:03 pm »
Quote from: J. J. on October 26, 2011, 09:09:27 am
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 43%, -1.
Disapprove 55%, +1.
"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, +1. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.
we are not quite there, but we are starting to get the the point in time where these approval ratings begin (very dimly) to have some predictive value.
Starting early next year they start to mean something.
the head to heads are, of course, meaningless. PEW did a poll and found that less than 50% can, unprompted, name even one GOP presidential candidate, so the head to heads are jibberish.
The only poll that is semi-meaningful right now is Obama's "deserves to be re-elected" and/or Obama versus the mythical generic republican.
Obama's getting low 40s on both of these. Not good, but not dead in the water either. I would call it somewhat to the darker side of the grey area at this point.
Logged
No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...
Thomas Jefferson
pbrower2a
YaBB God
Posts: 19,793
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9016 on:
October 26, 2011, 08:08:34 pm »
Quote from: The Vorlon on October 26, 2011, 04:51:03 pm
Quote from: J. J. on October 26, 2011, 09:09:27 am
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 43%, -1.
Disapprove 55%, +1.
"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, +1. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.
we are not quite there, but we are starting to get the the point in time where these approval ratings begin (very dimly) to have some predictive value.
Starting early next year they start to mean something.
the head to heads are, of course, meaningless. PEW did a poll and found that less than 50% can, unprompted, name even one GOP presidential candidate, so the head to heads are jibberish.
The only poll that is semi-meaningful right now is Obama's "deserves to be re-elected" and/or Obama versus the mythical generic republican.
Obama's getting low 40s on both of these. Not good, but not dead in the water either. I would call it somewhat to the darker side of the grey area at this point.
The head-to-head match-ups are relevant. People are watching the political scene, People have been watching the Republican debates, and the Republican candidates are far-better known than has been the case in the recent past. The political figures are as well known at the least as figures of popular culture.
News coverage of the President is nothing spectacular. But Republican candidates are getting much attention; they are carping at the President nearly non-stop. They have a head start... and so far they show themselves ineffective in showing the President as a fool, crook, or an unqualified failure. This is with a horrible economy.
The average gain from an approval rating to the share of the vote for an incumbent Senator or Governor is 6%, and that is probably much the same for the President. From 43% that suggests that the incumbent President would end up with 49% of the popular vote with the challenger getting 51% and losing.
That is far from exact. Much matters, including breaking scandals, the economy, military or diplomatic successes and debacles, and of course the quality of campaigns of the incumbent and challenger. Without question, President Obama would likely go down to a Republican as strong as Ronald Reagan who has no regional weaknesses and knows how to modulate his language to seem more moderate than he is. This President is a complete mismatch for much of America -- the Deep South except for blacks, the oil patch of America, and the culturally-similar areas of the Ozarks and the middle and southern Appalachians (basically the mountainous areas east of the Rockies to the south of roughly Binghamton, New York).
So why the 6% gain on the average? The incumbent, first of all, has usually shown the ability to win the election that got him in. For every President of the twentieth century except for Gerald Ford (who had never won a statewide race) such has been true. The incumbent has responsibilities in office that preclude him from campaigning 24-7 -- as a legislator and as an administrator. Some of those, like the budgetary process, can be messy. Incumbents get pinned down for policy; challengers can usually get away with talking out of both sides of their mouths, at least early, perhaps saying one thing in Vermont and another in Wyoming or saying one thing at the Sierra Club and another at a convention of the American Petroleum Institute.
But it is an average. That depends on an average incumbent against an average challenger. Some incumbents won by piecing together coalitions that cannot endure for four years (prime example -- Jimmy Carter); sometimes the challengers are unusually weak (McGovern) and sometimes they are unusually strong (Clinton). Incumbents run on their records and win or run from their records and lose. Challengers usually run on the weaknesses of the records of incumbents. For good reason eight of thirteen incumbent Presidents running for re-election beginning in 2000 got re-elected, which isn't a random result.
What I just said in the preceding paragraph is mush. The story of the 2012 election is far from written. If I say that the President has roughly a 60% chance of re-election, then that is consistent with "8 of 13".
Logged
Your political compass
Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
Posts: 4,653
Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9017 on:
October 27, 2011, 10:29:51 am »
I guess we just disagree on the facts.
Let's look at Gallup approval ratings of all presidents starting with Truman eligible to seek re-election, and see how they did versus the 1st quarter Gallup approval ratings in the year of their (potential) re-election:
Gallup approval ratings - Last poll in 1st quarter of (potential) re-election year:
Sorted from most popular 1st quarter of the election year to least popular:
Presidents Over 50% - Every single one re-elected
Eisenhower 1956 - 1st Quarter approval - 1956 => Low to mid 70s approval => Re-elected
Johnson 1964 - 1st Quarter 1964 => mid 70s approval => Re-elected
Reagan 1984 - 1st Quarter 1984 => 54% => reelected
Nixon 1972 - 1st Quarter 1972 => 53% approval => Re-elected
GW Bush - 1st Quarter 2004 = 53% approval => Re-elected
Clinton 1996 - 1st Quarter 1996 = 52% approval => Re-elected
President who polled 46% to 50% in 1st Quarter lost very narrowly
Ford 1976 1st Quarter 1976 => 50% approval =>
Very Narrowly defeated
Presidents Below 50% -
Every single one defeated or choose not to seek re-election
Obama - Fall 2011 - 43% +/- - Result TBA
GHW Bush - 1st Quarter 1992 = 41% =>
Defeated
Carter 1980 - 1st Quarter 1980 => 39% =>
defeated
Johnson 1968 - 1st quarter 36% approval =>
Choose not to seek re-election
Truman 19
52
- 1st Quarter 19
52
- 36% approval =>
Choose not to seek re-election
Hmmm..
The 50% rule in the 1st quarter of the election year has gone 11 for 11 and predicted re-election (or not) with 100% accuracy in every presidential election since Truman....
Naturally, "Rules of thumb" work perfectly till they don't work anymore, but that being said:
The "50%" rule was not pulled out the air, it has a solid historical basis....
If you think Obama's 43% gets him 4 more years you are... at odds with the historical data...
«
Last Edit: October 27, 2011, 01:42:21 pm by The Vorlon
»
Logged
No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...
Thomas Jefferson
J. J.
YaBB God
Posts: 32,809
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9018 on:
October 27, 2011, 11:53:43 am »
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 43%, u.
Disapprove 55%, u.
"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, u. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +2.
Logged
J. J.
"Actually, .. now that you mention it...."
- Londo Molari
"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke
"Wa sala, wa lala."
(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
pbrower2a
YaBB God
Posts: 19,793
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9019 on:
October 27, 2011, 01:05:39 pm »
Quote from: The Vorlon on October 27, 2011, 10:29:51 am
I guess we just disagree on the facts.
Let's look at Gallup approval ratings of all presidents starting with Truman eligible to seek re-election, and see how they did versus the 1st quarter Gallup approval ratings in the year of their (potential) re-election:
Gallup approval ratings - Last poll in 1st quarter of (potential) re-election year:
Sorted from most popular 1st quarter of the election year to least popular:
Presidents Over 50% - Every single one re-elected
Eisenhower 1956 - 1st Quarter approval - 1956 => Low to mid 70s approval => Re-elected
Johnson 1964 - 1st Quarter 1964 => mid 70s approval => Re-elected
Reagan 1984 - 1st Quarter 1984 => 54% => reelected
Nixon 1972 - 1st Quarter 1972 => 53% approval => Re-elected
GW Bush - 1st Quarter 2004 = 53% approval => Re-elected
Clinton 1996 - 1st Quarter 1996 = 52% approval => Re-elected
President who polled 46% to 50% in 1st Quarter lost very narrowly
Ford 1976 1st Quarter 1976 => 50% approval =>
Very Narrowly defeated
Presidents Below 50% -
Every single one defeated or choose not to seek re-election
Obama - Fall 2011 - 43% +/- - Result TBA
GHW Bush - 1st Quarter 1992 = 41% =>
Defeated
Carter 1980 - 1st Quarter 1980 => 39% =>
defeated
Johnson 1968 - 1st quarter 36% approval =>
Choose not to seek re-election
Truman 1948 - 1st Quarter 1948 - 36% approval =>
Choose not to seek re-election
Hmmm..
The 50% rule in the 1st quarter of the election year has gone 11 for 11 and predicted re-election (or not) with 100% accuracy in every presidential election since Truman....
Naturally, "Rules of thumb" work perfectly till they don't work anymore, but that being said:
The "50%" rule was not pulled out the air, it has a solid historical basis....
If you think Obama's 43% gets him 4 more years you are... at odds with the historical data...
You have "Truman 1948" confused with "Truman 1952".
The President's low approval ratings relate to (1) the putrid economy, and (2) the unwillingness of the Republicans in Congress to allow him to pass any legislation. Republicans still have culpability for the economy, and the latter probably explains why Congress has such a putrid approval rating of its own.
The polls are also jumping up and down, depending upon recent events.
No Presidential election has ever gotten so much early attention as this one. Republican challengers to the President have placed themselves in the spotlight early. Ordinarily the people running against an incumbent President don't get the attention that they do now. As an example, Barack Obama was not particularly well-known a year before he was elected. But now, Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, and Sarah Palin are very well known. I would say that they are all better known than... Luis Pujols.
Barack Obama is clearly not so awful that just about anyone could beat him. Were he that awful, you would see matchups like Palin 55, Obama 41 all over the map. I look at recent polls in Ohio and see President Obama up by 4% over Romney and bigger over everyone else. A 4% gap hardly looks insurmountable because it isn't. It will be just as possible for the President to extend that gap as for Romney to cut into it. When it comes to the likes of Perry, Palin, and Bachmann they had their chances.
The Republican challengers to the President have exposed their positions early. That implies that the President's campaign has plenty of time in which to formulate a negative campaign against any candidate who talks out of both sides of his mouth. Someone who poses as a moderate yet cuts deals with extremists to the offense of moderate sensibilities will be nailed for that in due time.
Americans are getting more frustrated with politics. The Tea Party offered a solution -- and that solution isn't exactly chamomile.
Logged
Your political compass
Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
Posts: 4,653
Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9020 on:
October 27, 2011, 01:55:10 pm »
Quote from: The Vorlon on October 26, 2011, 04:51:03 pm
The only poll that is semi-meaningful right now is Obama's "deserves to be re-elected" and/or Obama versus the mythical generic republican.
Obama's getting low 40s on both of these. Not good, but not dead in the water either. I would call it somewhat to the darker side of the grey area at this point.
Logged
No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...
Thomas Jefferson
Politico
YaBB God
Posts: 4,862
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9021 on:
October 27, 2011, 05:03:40 pm »
He has a chance just like the Indianapolis Colts still have a chance of winning the Super Bowl this year.
Logged
"Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else."
- Bastiat
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
Posts: 4,653
Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9022 on:
October 27, 2011, 07:17:07 pm »
Quote from: Politico on October 27, 2011, 05:03:40 pm
He has a chance just like the Indianapolis Colts still have a chance of winning the Super Bowl this year.
Hey Peyton could come back, and they could go 9 in a row, and 9-7 could get them into the playoffs
And the economy could turn around, and Obamacare might actually save money, and ........
Logged
No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...
Thomas Jefferson
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
YaBB God
Posts: 12,363
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9023 on:
October 27, 2011, 09:20:55 pm »
Quote from: The Professor on October 27, 2011, 09:17:55 pm
Quote from: The Vorlon on October 27, 2011, 07:17:07 pm
Quote from: Politico on October 27, 2011, 05:03:40 pm
He has a chance just like the Indianapolis Colts still have a chance of winning the Super Bowl this year.
Hey Peyton could come back, and they could go 9 in a row, and 9-7 could get them into the playoffs
And the economy could turn around, and Obamacare might actually save money, and ........
.....and you might finally get a girl
F
u
ck off.
Logged
The Professor
Jr. Member
Posts: 93
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9024 on:
October 27, 2011, 09:25:43 pm »
Quote from: Joseph Gordon Levitt on October 27, 2011, 09:20:55 pm
Quote from: The Professor on October 27, 2011, 09:17:55 pm
Quote from: The Vorlon on October 27, 2011, 07:17:07 pm
Quote from: Politico on October 27, 2011, 05:03:40 pm
He has a chance just like the Indianapolis Colts still have a chance of winning the Super Bowl this year.
Hey Peyton could come back, and they could go 9 in a row, and 9-7 could get them into the playoffs
And the economy could turn around, and Obamacare might actually save money, and ........
.....and you might finally get a girl
F
u
ck off.
You can't talk to me that way. I'm going to have to report you and your vulgar, virgin mouth to the dean. Unless of course you apologize to me right this instant. I'm not the type of person to hold grudges.
Logged
Pages:
1
...
356
357
358
359
360
[
361
]
362
363
364
365
366
...
410
« previous
next »
Jump to:
Please select a destination:
-----------------------------
Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-----------------------------
=> 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
===> 2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
===> 2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
=> 2016 U.S. Presidential Election
=> U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results
=> Presidential Election Process
===> Polling
=> Presidential Election Trends
=> Election What-ifs?
===> Past Election What-ifs (US)
===> Alternative Elections
===> International What-ifs
-----------------------------
Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-----------------------------
=> Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections
===> 2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2020 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=> Congressional Elections
===> 2020 Senatorial Election Polls
=> International Elections
=> Election Predictions
-----------------------------
About this Site
-----------------------------
=> The Atlas
===> How To
-----------------------------
General Discussion
-----------------------------
=> Constitution and Law
=> Religion & Philosophy
=> History
===> Alternative History
-----------------------------
General Politics
-----------------------------
=> U.S. General Discussion
=> Political Geography & Demographics
=> International General Discussion
=> Economics
=> Individual Politics
=> Political Debate
===> Political Essays & Deliberation
===> Book Reviews and Discussion
-----------------------------
Election Archive
-----------------------------
=> Election Archive
===> All Archived Boards
=====> 2018 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=====> 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
=====> 2016 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2016 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=====> 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
=====> 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=======> 2014 House Election Polls
=======> 2014 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2012 Elections
=======> 2012 Senatorial Election Polls
=======> 2012 House Election Polls
=======> 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
=======> 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
=======> 2012 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=====> 2010 Elections
=======> 2010 House Election Polls
=======> 2010 Senatorial Election Polls
=======> 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=====> 2008 Elections
=======> 2008 Senatorial Election Polls
=======> 2008 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=======> 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign
=======> 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
=======> 2008 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
=====> 2006 Elections
=======> 2006 Senatorial Election Polls
=======> 2006 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=====> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election
=======> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign
=======> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Polls
=====> Town Hall
=====> Survivor
-----------------------------
Forum Community
-----------------------------
=> Forum Community
===> Forum Community Election Match-ups
=> Election and History Games
===> Mock Parliment
=> Off-topic Board
-----------------------------
Atlas Fantasy Elections
-----------------------------
=> Atlas Fantasy Elections
===> Voting Booth
=> Atlas Fantasy Government
===> Constitutional Convention
===> Regional Governments
1 Hour
1 Day
1 Week
1 Month
Forever
Login with username, password and session length
Powered by SMF 1.1.21
|
SMF © 2015, Simple Machines
Loading...