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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1023161 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #10075 on: September 26, 2012, 02:28:01 pm »


I'd be watch those Strongly Approve numbers and Gallup over the weekend.  Smiley

Have fun watching your flawed outlier polls.

Just saw the Quiniapiac ones ones on the polling board. 

While their might be a single bad sample, it is almost impossible to get longer term outliers on the tracking polls.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #10076 on: September 26, 2012, 03:48:27 pm »

Uh, no it's not. It's very possible. And Gallup and Ramussen are both good examples of it. Both polls have flawed sample weightings.

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Do you expect Romney's numbers to quickly rebound after the damage of the 47% remark? Because there's no evidence (besides Rasmussen) that this is happening. Obama's lead has only grown in the last few days.
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King
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« Reply #10077 on: September 26, 2012, 05:16:17 pm »

The World's Longest Lag.
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J. J.
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« Reply #10078 on: September 27, 2012, 12:03:52 am »

Uh, no it's not. It's very possible. And Gallup and Ramussen are both good examples of it. Both polls have flawed sample weightings.

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A weighting problem is not an outlier.

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No, I expect it to rebound, because they were not a major component of the sample last week, when Romney's numbers went up.  They were not a major part of the sample.

As noted, the Rasmussen numbers went down when the comment came out.


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 51%, +2.

Disapprove 48%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  40%, -2.


It could be tied to Romney's 47% comment.  Tracking shows 47%/45% Obama in the horse race poll.



Stick a fork in him. He's done.

I guess since the number's flipped, you think Obama is "done" now, right Lief?
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J. J.
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« Reply #10079 on: September 27, 2012, 08:51:14 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 51%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  42%, -1.

Head to head is tied at 46/46 Obama, but with leaners 48/48. 

The strongly approved numbers are still running lower and there appears to some erosion (2-3 points).

 On 10/1, Rasmussen will start including leaners in their head to head numbers.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
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King
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« Reply #10080 on: September 27, 2012, 08:57:11 am »

Doesn't recovery from a major campaign gaffe have to be earned?  I don't think it goes away because it was a week ago.  Maybe if something had happened in the news (the Libya ambassador death ended the convention bounce), but there really hasn't been anything helpful to Romney hooking Obama.

The debate could kill this... next week. If he wins the debate that is,  otherwise it might be permanent.
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J. J.
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« Reply #10081 on: September 27, 2012, 09:22:54 am »

Doesn't recovery from a major campaign gaffe have to be earned?  I don't think it goes away because it was a week ago.  Maybe if something had happened in the news (the Libya ambassador death ended the convention bounce), but there really hasn't been anything helpful to Romney hooking Obama.



No, it is internalized.  After the initial hype, people treat it as one piece of data.

The relations with the Islamic are a ongoing problem for Obama, because:

1.  There was more unrest after the apologies.

2.  The assassination of Stevens was a terrorist attack and it took the administration too long to admit it.  It was just probably spin or muddle, but people are saying "conspiracy."

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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
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« Reply #10082 on: September 27, 2012, 10:34:02 am »

The relations with the Islamic are a ongoing problem for Obama, because:

1.  There was more unrest after the apologies.

All of the unrest was after the so-called 'apologies'. The so-called 'apologies' came before there was much unrest. Also, 'Islamic' isn't a noun.

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Who are these people and why are they not showing up in the polls showing that Obama has a considerable lead on foreign policy? For that matter, why is none of this claim of yours showing up in the polls?
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King
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« Reply #10083 on: September 27, 2012, 10:34:54 am »

No, it is internalized.  After the initial hype, people treat it as one piece of data.

Not all people.  I usually clear out my internalized data after my weekly defragment.  Do you not clear your cache weekly, J.J.?
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ajb
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« Reply #10084 on: September 27, 2012, 11:22:44 am »

Judging by the advertising that they're doing, it's clear that neither campaign agrees with J.J. in thinking that the 47% comments were a blip.
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« Reply #10085 on: September 27, 2012, 11:56:31 am »

I'm not sure if it helps obama much, as hurts Romney, so I'm not sure hwo much it will appear here.
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J. J.
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« Reply #10086 on: September 27, 2012, 12:09:29 pm »
« Edited: September 27, 2012, 12:16:03 pm by J. J. »



http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 50%, -1


Disapprove: 44%, +1

Head to head, Obama 50% (u), Romney 44% (u).
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« Reply #10087 on: September 27, 2012, 12:13:41 pm »

Eehh, not to dent your hope too much, but the head to head is Obama 50% (u) - Romney 44% (u)
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J. J.
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« Reply #10088 on: September 27, 2012, 12:15:06 pm »

Judging by the advertising that they're doing, it's clear that neither campaign agrees with J.J. in thinking that the 47% comments were a blip.

I'm saying it was a blip on Rasmussen.  I'm waiting to see it it is a blip on Gallup.
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ajb
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« Reply #10089 on: September 27, 2012, 02:34:39 pm »

Judging by the advertising that they're doing, it's clear that neither campaign agrees with J.J. in thinking that the 47% comments were a blip.

I'm saying it was a blip on Rasmussen.  I'm waiting to see it it is a blip on Gallup.
That's a plausible interpretation of the Rasmussen results. I do think it's worth suggesting that if the 47% comments caused nothing more than a blip, and the race is still essentially tied, then Romney probably wouldn't have replaced all of his existing swing-state ads with an ad in which he announces that he cares just as much about the poor as Obama does.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/26/romney_goes_all_in_to_soften_his_47_remarks.html
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J. J.
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« Reply #10090 on: September 27, 2012, 10:02:38 pm »

Judging by the advertising that they're doing, it's clear that neither campaign agrees with J.J. in thinking that the 47% comments were a blip.

I'm saying it was a blip on Rasmussen.  I'm waiting to see it it is a blip on Gallup.
That's a plausible interpretation of the Rasmussen results. I do think it's worth suggesting that if the 47% comments caused nothing more than a blip, and the race is still essentially tied, then Romney probably wouldn't have replaced all of his existing swing-state ads with an ad in which he announces that he cares just as much about the poor as Obama does.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/26/romney_goes_all_in_to_soften_his_47_remarks.html

He might have seen it as a preemption.  There was a drop in Rasmussen, but it was ephemeral. 
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King
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« Reply #10091 on: September 27, 2012, 10:20:57 pm »

Rasmussen's track polls hardly ever move out of the margin of error of 49-49.  It feels like it's been 51-48 in either direction for months now.  The only swing from it came because Scott announced he was going to change his partisan weighing model on September 1st.  You can't possibly see trends in that thing.
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ajb
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« Reply #10092 on: September 27, 2012, 10:32:27 pm »

Judging by the advertising that they're doing, it's clear that neither campaign agrees with J.J. in thinking that the 47% comments were a blip.

I'm saying it was a blip on Rasmussen.  I'm waiting to see it it is a blip on Gallup.
That's a plausible interpretation of the Rasmussen results. I do think it's worth suggesting that if the 47% comments caused nothing more than a blip, and the race is still essentially tied, then Romney probably wouldn't have replaced all of his existing swing-state ads with an ad in which he announces that he cares just as much about the poor as Obama does.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/26/romney_goes_all_in_to_soften_his_47_remarks.html

He might have seen it as a preemption.  There was a drop in Rasmussen, but it was ephemeral. 
As the article says, he's going to begin pre-empting last week's gaffe tomorrow. Just saying.
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J. J.
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« Reply #10093 on: September 28, 2012, 12:09:08 am »

Rasmussen's track polls hardly ever move out of the margin of error of 49-49.  It feels like it's been 51-48 in either direction for months now.  The only swing from it came because Scott announced he was going to change his partisan weighing model on September 1st.  You can't possibly see trends in that thing.

These changes have virtually nothing to do with the weighting.  They are changes within the poll.  And, if you are taking about approval numbers, they were out of that range this month.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10094 on: September 28, 2012, 06:25:03 am »


Finally, the approval rating and the vote match up.
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J. J.
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« Reply #10095 on: September 28, 2012, 08:42:05 am »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 51%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, +1.

Head to head is tied at 47/46 Obama, but with leaners 48/48. 


 On 10/1, Rasmussen will start including leaners in their head to head numbers.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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J. J.
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« Reply #10096 on: September 28, 2012, 12:43:17 pm »



http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 50%, u


Disapprove: 45%, +1

Head to head, Obama 50% (u), Romney 44% (u).

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President von Cat
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« Reply #10097 on: September 28, 2012, 09:57:39 pm »

I guess we're still waiting for Americans to forget about Romney calling them entitled, irresponsible, useless leeches?
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J. J.
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« Reply #10098 on: September 29, 2012, 07:47:43 am »

I guess we're still waiting for Americans to forget about Romney calling them entitled, irresponsible, useless leeches?

Obama's unfavorable numbers have been increasing. 
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #10099 on: September 29, 2012, 07:48:29 am »

Not really, no: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_favorableunfavorable-643.html
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