Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 19, 2019, 02:40:49 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions close today at noon

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016085 times)
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« on: February 09, 2009, 01:00:03 pm »

They are hanging it all on this stimulus. If it fails, heads will roll. The media will still push the narrative of Obama, though.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #1 on: April 15, 2009, 10:02:14 pm »

Just have to stay above 55%. No way we can lose as long as we keep that goal in place.

According to the prophet Nate Silver, Obama needs a 65% approval rating in Nov 2010 for the Democrats to avoid losing congressional seats.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2009, 03:18:49 pm »

Don't be shocked if the Democrat's approvals don't remain sky high forever. Remember, the Republicans had a lot of negative approvals for congressional candidates who had done nothing controversial as well. If Obama is not particularly popular in Colorado, then it's no surprise that the Democratic senator is running behind him.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2009, 04:21:07 pm »

Attempted translation into electoral results, 2012 with the whopper of an assumption that nothing really changes before then: 




Projection:
Navy -- Generic Republican strong (10% or more)
Blue  -- Generic Republican weak   (5 - 9.9%)
Pale blue -- Generic Republican, barely (under 5%)
White -- Undeterminable or toss-up
Pink -- Obama, barely (under 5%)
Red -- weak Obama (5-9.9%)
Deep red -- strong Obama (10% or more)

Obama                    418
Toss-up                     13
Generic Republican  107

It's obvious that there will be more polls.  At this stage I consider Montana and North Dakota "unpolled", Nebraska a tossup at large as it is unpolled except for one Congressional district, and Arkansas because it has too many contradictions.  No state in which Obama gets at least a 45% approval rating can be considered anything more than "barely Generic Republican".  In the absence of polls I go with Mississippi, Maryland, D.C., Vermont, Maine, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, and Hawaii  as they did in 2008. I "mute" Nevada for lack of polls and because the double-digit win could be a one-time event.  Although West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana give support in the positive range to Obama, he lost those states by huge margins so they can't be more than "weak Obama".   Although I recognize a strong positive (50%+) for Obama in Utah, I just can't imagine him winning the state.  

Much of this is arbitrary, and one poll can change things dramatically for one state. Much will change politically by 2012; most obviously, Obama absolutely won't be running against a "generic Republican" in 2012.
 







LOL

I'm with Fezzy now. It's amazing how much bull you spew in each of your posts, yet you come off as almost intelligent.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2009, 09:43:21 am »

Alabama (Anzalone-Liszt Research (D) for Artur Davis, 600 LV, May 5-9)Sad

"58 percent of voters approve of Obama's performance, including 46 percent of white voters.  In addition, 87 percent of white Democrats and 57 percent of independents approve of Obama’s performance."

http://www.arturdavis2010.com/release_details.asp?id=65

Interesting, because the last Alabama poll by SUSA (600 adults) had Obama at only 48%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c643766a-9eb3-42a5-a1ce-38215e0aa02b


Interesting outlier.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2009, 10:17:45 pm »


I agree. There's about a zero chance that Obama wins states like LA (lol), TN, KY, WV or the western district of NE. AR is also unwinnable. SD and ND are becoming more favorable, but still lean Republican. But a Huckabee has a greater chance to lose them than, let's say a Romney has.

That map is already obsolete due to later polls. This is my more recent map, and in it I have exchanged white for yellow because yellow shows electoral votes better than does white:



Projection:
Navy -- Generic Republican strong (10% or more)
Blue  -- Generic Republican weak   (5 - 9.9%)
Pale blue -- Generic Republican, barely (under 5%)
Yellow -- Undeterminable or toss-up
Pink -- Obama, barely (under 5%)
Red -- weak Obama (5-9.9%)
Deep red -- strong Obama (10% or more)

For example, Nevada has been polled. It consolidates my assessment that anything that Obama won by 10% or more in 2008 is out of reach, and I need not wait for Maine, Vermont, or Maryland.

A more recent poll for Oklahoma suggests what about everyone reasonably thinks -- that Obama can be defeated there by about a 60-40 margin even if he wins nationwide at a 60-40 spread. I saw a poll for Alabama that gives Obama a 58% approval rating... not that I fully believe it.  But I have cause to believe that a 56% positive rating in Virginia is genuine, as that is close to the vote for Obama in 2008, and that is enough to put Virginia in the "solid Obama" category. West Virginia gave Obama about a 60% approval rating, suggesting that the depiction of Obama as an environmental extremist out to 'punish coal' may be unfounded. If the GOP won on that canard in 2008 and it remains a canard in 2012, then Obama wins West Virginia.

The Alabama poll suggests that some of those surprisingly-high ratings in some of the southeastern and south-central states in which Obama got clobbered in 2008 are genuine.  It's hard for me to believe that Obama is viewed more positively in Alabama than in Georgia -- but such reflects the latest polls. It could be an outlier. But note well -- the "Mid-South" (AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, and TN) is several states that generally move together in recent years. Those states may be easier to figure than Texas, which has no political analogue. Mississippi has yet to be polled, so I guess.

How could Obama be more popular in the South now than on November 4, 2008? He might not be. Those states have a strong heritage of admiration for the military, and they may have voted for McCain because of that heritage. McCain will not be the GOP nominee in 2012, and none of the likely GOP nominees has any military record.

I think that Mike Huckabee picks up all states of the South not on the Atlantic coast, and that if he is a VP candidate, he still wins Arkansas if not all other such states. But he has to get the nomination to do that. Romney and Palin have no connections to the South.

I don't know which to believe about Alabama: the 38% vote for Obama, the recent 48% approval rating, or the current 58% approval rating.  An average suggests a toss-up. Nebraska? At-large, Nebraska was in between South Dakota and Kansas, and the 62% approval rating for NE-02 suggests a gain in NE-01. Districts of Nebraska are shown left-to-right with an increasing number to the right, which is geographically absurd for Nebraska. NE-03 is one of the most right-wing congressional districts in America, and I have it as "Strong (generic) Republican". It offers the surest electoral vote or votes for a generic Republican. NE-01? More GOP-leaning than NE-02, but Nebraska went for McCain only by 13%, and NE-03 went for something like thirty. NE-01 and NE at large are thus undecided.

Of course it looks very hopeful for Obama, suggesting an Eisenhower-scale, if not Reagan-scale or LBJ-scale, landslide in 2012. It suggests that Obama will win everything that he won in 2008 except Colorado at least firmly, and everything that was close. The southern states are daring.

 

 



Do you believe anything you say? Or do you just try to paint the rosiest picture possible for your candidate?
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #6 on: June 29, 2009, 01:50:12 pm »

But he continues to make the same assumption that states that give Obama a net approval will ultimately vote for him. Candidates have lost states even if the state approves of their job. The most recent example was Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island, who lost reelection despite having something like a 66% approval rating.

Just because Utah gives Obama a net positive approval rating does in no way mean he will win the state, or make it close.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #7 on: July 08, 2009, 10:04:58 pm »

I know favorable ratings aren't the same thing as approval ratings, but they go hand in hand.

Anyway, Obama's favorable ratings in NC: 61% favorable, 29% unfavorable

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/poll-results/june-2009-poll-results

Civitas? Quality polling firm right there.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #8 on: July 09, 2009, 11:24:38 am »

I think we can all agree that with these approval numbers, Utah is no longer in play for Obama.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2009, 05:28:09 pm »

Really? Really? Still using the "his approvals drop only because he left the country" theory?
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2009, 01:08:11 pm »

If only we had elected Hillary, huh James?
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2009, 04:24:04 pm »

I'd expect a bounce for Obama after Friday's economic numbers. CNBC was having an orgasm proclaiming "America is back!" and "the new bull market!" all because we only lost 200,000 jobs. The media is now pushing this narrative.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2009, 04:49:02 pm »

I'd expect a bounce for Obama after Friday's economic numbers. CNBC was having an orgasm proclaiming "America is back!" and "the new bull market!" all because we only lost 200,000 jobs. The media is now pushing this narrative.
CNBC was pretty much saying the economy was fine tell Lehman bros went under so this shouldnt come as a surprise.

It's not a surprise, but I was a bit surprised how jubilant they were. Kudlow had some people on claiming we should see 3-3.5% growth during the rest of the year and into 2010, and that it is time to put all of your money into stocks.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #13 on: August 11, 2009, 11:53:24 pm »

RAS had Mccain gaining In PA last fall.They had people supporting Drill Baby Drill.How well
did that go.As a rule I Ignore RAS untill we are In General Elections then they can be taken
seriously.As for CBS/NYTimes polls calling them liberal orginazations are a joke.The New York
Times buried the surveilance programs till 2005.And If you think CBS Is proObama that Is
news to the Democratic base.

Not really.  His final poll (if I'm not mistaken) showed Obama+8.

Rasmussen was pretty accurate during this cycle. He may have been 1-2 points bias to the Republicans, but nothing along the lines of how this forum depicts them. Obama's approvals are certainly not at the NYT and CBS levels. Those firms are just as bias as Rasmussen. Anyone who claims otherwise is a mindless hack.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2009, 12:16:37 am »

RAS had Mccain gaining In PA last fall.They had people supporting Drill Baby Drill.How well
did that go.As a rule I Ignore RAS untill we are In General Elections then they can be taken
seriously.As for CBS/NYTimes polls calling them liberal orginazations are a joke.The New York
Times buried the surveilance programs till 2005.And If you think CBS Is proObama that Is
news to the Democratic base.

Not really.  His final poll (if I'm not mistaken) showed Obama+8.

Rasmussen was pretty accurate during this cycle. He may have been 1-2 points bias to the Republicans, but nothing along the lines of how this forum depicts them. Obama's approvals are certainly not at the NYT and CBS levels. Those firms are just as bias as Rasmussen. Anyone who claims otherwise is a mindless hack.
No one is arguing that his election polls are inaccurate but rather his off year polls.


Really? He was pretty accurate on the 2006 Senate races and nailed Virginia. In which case was he inaccurate in off year polls? I am using his most recent examples. I know Rasmussen was a mess in 2000 and 2002.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #15 on: August 12, 2009, 11:54:13 pm »

Ah, but pbrower2 uses the polls that make the map look most favorable to Obama. Texas and Utah will be competitive, you see.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #16 on: August 22, 2009, 04:54:21 pm »

It's impossible to predict 2012 right now. If the economy has turned around and we do not experience a double dip recession, Obama will win reelection easily.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #17 on: August 25, 2009, 10:38:11 am »

The youth seem to be drawn to the hopeful message both Obama and Huckabee espouse. To tell you the truth, if I didn't know Huckabee was batsh*t crazy, I'd probably be a supporter of his. I have a favorable view of the man, his politics are just too, well, out there for me.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #18 on: August 25, 2009, 04:56:29 pm »

Huckabee could be dangerous, which scares me. His message is a good one, and if he can keep his theocracy cravings to himself until election day, he could give Obama a run for his money. As I said, I would vote for him if I was unaware of his politics.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #19 on: August 26, 2009, 05:47:43 pm »

Taking the Age Wave into account, Obama should still be competitive in NE-02, and will get around 42-45% statewide.

You've bought into the ludicrous "age wave" theory? I'm not so sure I buy it considering I saw a poll on Facebook today with 70% of respondents (258,000) saying they would not want Obama reelected. Small snap shot, I know, but still.

I'm still going to go with the old age theory of approval ratings. If Obama has less than a 50% approval rating in a state, he probably will lose it. If his approvals are 36% in Nebraska, I have no idea why you'd think he'd get 42%-45% or so statewide. The old method has been true in the past, and I am not going to buy these age wave theories until they actually are proven to be true.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #20 on: August 27, 2009, 12:28:15 pm »

Obama needs to stop his slide quickly.  He has got to get to the Senate and tell Democrats taht they dont have a choice of opposing this. 

How would ramming the healthcare bill through congress help the President's approval ratings when a majority of Americans oppose it?
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #21 on: August 27, 2009, 05:49:43 pm »

Obama needs to stop his slide quickly.  He has got to get to the Senate and tell Democrats taht they dont have a choice of opposing this. 

How would ramming the healthcare bill through congress help the President's approval ratings when a majority of Americans oppose it?
Well it obviously wouldn't help in the short term but long term it would help tremendously. The Republicans would look like a bunch of ass clowns once it turns out that death panels don't exist and that the government is nationalizing everything. Besides not passing the health care bill would hurt him in the same way short term.

Why? In the short term, it looks like more people would be happy that this healthcare bill didn't go through. Long term it's a tossup. If it works out, then Obama wins, but if it ends up costing us more and ruining our healthcare system, then it will ruin him.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #22 on: August 28, 2009, 12:08:28 am »

Jesus, this guy is dropping like a rock. I thought he would drop some, find some support for a few months, then drop some more, but instead he's just dropping like a rock. This summer has been a nightmare. The talk of sleeping giants, peaceful revolution, a grassroots movement like never before, and the depth of passion is terrifying. It certainly wasn't reflected in the polls this spring. How did we go from 60+% approval and adoring crowds to peaceful revolution, screaming and shouting in a couple months? What happened to the middle phase where people begin to express disapproval but aren't going crazy?

Where does it end? What can Obama possibly do? If this goes on for the next 3 years, Obama will be fleeing the country taking a private charter plane to France before the end of his term rather than running for re-election.

Why weren't these people more vocal back in 2007 or 2008, when Obama's health care plan was first proposed?

Probably because people were so upset with Bush and the way the wars were going. They wanted to elect anyone from the other side, and Obama seemed like an inspiring, practical candidate. Unfortunately he has governed exactly as I expected him to do. People don't want to hear the Democrats exclaim "you lost, get over it, shut up and follow us." I've never seen the passion and anger in this country either. It's almost frightening, and when the media calls them organized mobs, it makes it worse. All of this anger was first projected on the Democrats in Congress, and now it's finally made its way to Obama.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #23 on: August 31, 2009, 04:18:06 pm »

The things being posted in this thread remind me of why no matter how far left I move on some issues, I will never be able to become a Democrat. A Corporate and theocratic state will come in 2012 because the election will be rigged? When someone basically comes out and says that the only legitimate elections are those won by Democrats, then I tune them out.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,279


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

« Reply #24 on: August 31, 2009, 04:41:40 pm »

The things being posted in this thread remind me of why no matter how far left I move on some issues, I will never be able to become a Democrat. A Corporate and theocratic state will come in 2012 because the election will be rigged? When someone basically comes out and says that the only legitimate elections are those won by Democrats, then I tune them out.

It's the ones after 2012 that would be rigged.

Ah, I see. So what happened in 2006 and 2008? The Republicans had no problems rigging the 2000 and 2004 elections. Why did they rest on their laurels in 2006 and 2008?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC