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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1007001 times)
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« on: August 17, 2009, 03:28:04 pm »

Presumably, they're heading much lower.  The person who flinches at a showdown always gets hit.
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« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2009, 04:46:18 pm »

Democrats should have never wanted to win this election.  This has just been a disaster.  Democrats need to start running away from and against Obama like they did to Carter. 

Don't blame the cycle. The economy isn't helping, but the real problem is a leadership vacuum.

Obama has no leadership experience and it shows. Bush may have consistently led us down the wrong path, but at least he could lead.

But, yes, you're right, it's time for 2010 Dems in vulnerable seats to shy away from White House photo ops. Maybe even for 2009.
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« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2009, 06:15:56 pm »
« Edited: August 18, 2009, 11:04:59 am by Mr. Moderate »

This is a stupid statement on so many levels. Obama is still fairly popular, and is still extremely popular among the base. We have no idea what his approval ratings will be in the next year There are too many things that no one knows about that makes this a dumb statement.

Before blinking on health care reform, Obama was already upside down amongst independents in New Jersey and upside down amongst registered voters in Virginia. And all indications are that things will be getting worse instead of better.

I don't know for sure where his approvals will be even three months from now, but given the last seven months of his administration, I can make a pretty good educated guess.

Update: Corrected for fairness.
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2009, 06:16:28 am »

Can't be easy being for Obama attempting to seek consensus when so many on the other side remain dogmatically recalcitrant.

It also can't be easy for Obama to seek consensus when he's unable to lead.

A good leader doesn't pass the buck. A good leader starts with a plan, and then leads people towards consensus.
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2009, 12:51:33 pm »

Don't mix up an apple with an orange, please.
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« Reply #5 on: September 01, 2009, 09:08:19 am »

If there were any standards whatsoever the Republican Party would have hit 1932 levels by now and President Obama would still be riding high

Lawl.  To "ride high" you need to be capable of doing something. People were very lenient when judging Obama (and continue to be, to some extent) in the first 100 days, but as time goes on, we're expecting action.  The most memorable aspects of the Obama administration thus far have been a stimulus package whose funds will mostly be spent after the economic downturn has subsided, and a cash-for-clunkers program that shifted most planned new car purchases from late 2009 and 2010 to the month of August at great public expense.

Most of what has come from the White House since Bush left office has been, frankly, uninspiring.
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« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2009, 11:41:17 am »

I've more confidence in the "investment" strategy and WORKFARE than I do "austerity" and WEALTHFARE

If you want to call what Obama did an "investment," that's fine. There's a lot of good that will be done with that money.

But it wasn't sold to the public as a long-term strategy for rebuilding infrastructure. It was sold as an economic recovery bill. Basically, a repackaging of something Democrats want to masquerade as something that is immediately needed to heal the economy when it would realistically do no such thing.

And now that we're not seeing immediate positive signs from the stimulus, Obama's paying a political price. While some people are still wondering where their job went, it gives the appearance as though Obama has wiped his hands clean and moved on to the next issue, health care, at the expense of paying attention to economic needs.

Any one who thinks I can forgive George W Bush - and all the damage done - can think again

Don't worry.  No one expects you to stop being a broken record.
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« Reply #7 on: September 01, 2009, 11:47:40 am »

Democratic Hawk is not going to blame Obama or his policies for his low rating.

And why should I? I'm a pragmatic moderate, not some rightwing dogmatoid


You post an entire speech babbling about the evils of Reactionary Republican "wealthfare" attacking the GOP and nation en masse for their reactions to Obama's doing next to nothing since taking office and we are really supposed to believe you are a moderate? And do you really believe Obama stands for your "workfare" and not leftist welfare? You are delusional if that is the case.

Before you get caught up in semantics, I think it's fair enough just assume that Hawk is a moderate (or whichever set of buzzworded talking-pointed euphamism he chooses to use, "Christian Smiley Democrat" or pragmatic whateverthehell).

But to clarify, he's a Democratic partisan first and a moderate second.
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« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2009, 09:34:48 am »

Obama went down in today's Gallup:

Favorable: 53% (-2)
Unfavorable: 40% (+2)

Close to where Bush was 8 years ago and he didn't even propose a health care plan.

September 7–10, 2001: Bush 51% approve, 39% disapprove. The final Gallup poll of our pre-war era.
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« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2009, 11:34:22 am »

MidtermOdd-year elections are very different from Presidential and even midterm elections; they have far lesser participation, and such elections tend to be more Republican than those in Presidential years.

Actually, in New Jersey, midterm elections see almost identical turnout when you compare them to odd-year gubernatorial elections.  Some of the voters will be different, sure, but I don't think they're going to be as different as you think.

In 2005, 49% turned out; it was 48% in 2006.  In 2001, 49% turned out; it was 46% in 2002.

Comparitively, 73% turned out for the 2008 Presidential election; only 32% showed up for odd-year State Senate legislative midterms (2007).  Expect that already-low number to get even worse next decade—State Assemblymen will top the ticket in 2015 and 2019.
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2009, 10:22:03 am »

I thought you weren't using NJ samples of likely 2009 voters?
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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2009, 10:04:14 am »

I consider Senator Jon Kyl a plausible nominee for Vice-President of the United States in 2012.  He would probably enough to keep Arizona from swinging D in 2012.

LOL, you're ridiculous.

In any case, if you're playing the pick-a-vice-president-to-win-a-state game, Arizona is not the sorrt of state you should be going after.  Try a genuine toss up or slight-D state like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, or New Hampshire instead.

Kyl is a nobody garbage pick that would be laughed at for its incomprehensibility.

If Republicans can't win Arizona, they've already lost the election, so all else is academic.  McCain could have firewalled North Carolina or Indiana in 2008, but what difference would it have made?  Making the defeat look less brutal?
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« Reply #12 on: March 05, 2010, 12:33:04 pm »

1. It's possible that Hispanics (in CO, NV, and NM largely Mexican-Americans) are underrepresented in the polls, especially if they don't have landline phones. Hispanic voters are younger than the US average, and they are more likely to rely upon cell phones instead of landlines.  Pollsters can't reach cell phones. Even if Mexican-Americans, much more urban than America as a whole, have longer commutes, they are harder to reach by pollsters.

I want to rant about this for a minute, because I hear this "ZOMG NO LANDLINE PHONES" business an awful lot. People have been saying that this has been making polls invalid since 2002, and yet I haven't seen any *real evidence* to suggest that polling is becoming much less reliable or Democratic performance is being significantly understated because of this phenomenon.

You can say it makes sense in your head, but it just doesn't translate to real life. There's simply no significant difference between who has land lines and who doesn't based on party lines. Polling still seems as accurate (or as inaccurate) as it's always been. And young people don't vote anyway, so who cares if a tiny subsample of a tiny subsample is skewed slightly?

"ZOMG LANDLINE FONE" is just the newest excuse to justify ugly poll numbers. Nothing more.
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« Reply #13 on: March 16, 2010, 07:50:24 am »
« Edited: March 16, 2010, 07:55:53 am by Mr. Moderate »

Strategic Vision is back !

Georgia:

37% Approve
50% Disapprove

The results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Georgia, aged 18+, and conducted March 5-8, 2010 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3.5 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_031510.htm

The huge gap between approval and disapproval indicates the uselessness of that poll. I'd have to show it with the letter "S" (spurious, suspicious, screwy, shady)... except that such would crowd out another and more reliable poll.

I will not use this one.  

I usually don't even post in this thread, but I just want to clarify for my own amusement: You don't want to include this SV poll of Georgia, showing Obama at a "huge" -13, because he couldn't possibly be underwater in Georgia?
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« Reply #14 on: March 19, 2010, 10:53:07 am »

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And what that has to do with whether or not anyone approves of Barack Obama, well, that we're still working on figuring out. But when we do, oh boy howdy will you hear it here first!

Meanwhile, I remain suspicious of polling numbers that show Obama at, like, nearly -10 net favorables in Georgia and Ohio. Cause, you know, those numbers are kinda ugly and I don't like them. Also, we think the Georgia one was just plain made up, crosstabs be damned.

[clears throat]

Next up on Pbrower's World: Factoring in the Age Wave: Why a map showing Barack Obama to be net unfavorable in well over 300 electoral votes worth of states means he'll win re-election in 2012. You won't want to miss it!

[cut to commercial][/quote]
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« Reply #15 on: March 19, 2010, 01:55:28 pm »

South Carolina is one state, and it is the only one in which the state's GOP pols are so egregious in arrogance, racism, or bad behavior.  What I think applies to South Carolina does not apply to Alabama.  The GOP in South Carolina acts like a Party about to be turned out of office. South Carolina may be more conservative than America as a whole, but even a very conservative polity has its limitations.

Polls showing Obama support in the high 40s have appeared for several months in South Carolina. They look anomalous and invite examination. But they are consistent! Consistency in time and between pollsters suggests change from one norm to another. Is such change permanent? Who knows? Maybe the GOP will get its stuff together in South Carolina in time for the November elections and give a resounding victory for Senator James DeMint.

If another state that has normally voted Democratic for a long time -- let us say Michigan -- had an incumbent governor with a sex scandal, a left-wing Senator operating on the lunatic fringe, a Lieutenant Governor mouthing off Marxist claptrap, and a Congressman shouting off an insult at the President (in 2006 that would have been Dubya) in the State of the Union Speech, would you have seen trouble for the Democrats?

.... Net favorables for some states have been jumping around. So it has been in some states with 15+ electoral votes -- Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas. That happens. For now that is statistical noise. If it gets more consistent, then I might see a trend.

Age wave? Show me that it isn't a reality. Young adults  -- voters under 30 -- are now much more liberal and Democratic-leaning  than voters over 30. Can we expect the same of voters that will be voting for the first time for President in 2012? They have had the same educational influences and they have been exposed to the same mass culture. Their economic experiences have been much the same except that the youngest will have known the economic meltdown of 2008 as mid-teens instead of as adults. The youngest adults generally have little cause to be political conservatives. They are paid badly for their abilities, they are often heavily in debt (so they have no cause for support for deflationary policies associated with the GOP),  tax cuts are for the benefit of people other than themselves, and they are not drifting toward Christian fundamentalism. They still remember George W. Bush as a political disaster, and they don't know Bill Clinton very well except as an ex-President of the United States and will have no memory of the Cold War.  Remember: voters of November 2012 will have been born as late as November 1994.   

In the mid-1980s, an age wave would have shown a tendency toward the Republican Party and conservatism. Younger voters in their 20s were supplanting older, more liberal voters (New Deal Democrats) born early in the 20th Century and making the electorate more conservative and pro-GOP.  People who thought that Ronald Reagan was just a political fad discovered otherwise.  It works both ways, but at different times.

.........

Of course it is still possible that Barack Obama will prove a destructive failure as President, that youth will get some "sense" and recognize that what is best for tycoons and executives is best for them irrespective of the implicit sacrifices for anyone not already rich, that they will come to recognize FoX  News as the only reliable source for televised news, and that America may soon have a youth-based religious revival that turns former liberals into hard-line conservatives, and even the reputation of our 43rd President will be restored to an image of greatness. If most of that comes to pass, then the Democrats are going to be thrown to the curb politically in 2010 and 2012 because no campaign strategy and no oratory can undo the damage or the social change. .

But at least as likely, Barack Obama will get his pet healthcare reform passed; he will bring about major reforms that will change America for the better (next comes the financial industry better at grabbing wealth than at creating it or even protecting it); he will get credit for graceful exits from Iraq and Afghanistan; he will get to ride an economic upturn that showed signs of happening only in February 2009.

Healthcare reform is his Achilles heel so far. The lucrative industry wants no challenges to its fast-rising revenues despite decaying service. It has been funding a strident campaign on behalf of what we now have (profits-first, people just often enough to keep people from rebelling) against every Democratic member of Congress. That campaign stops once the bill is passed or defeated.       
 

A wild PBROWER appears!

PBROWER used wall of text!

It's super effective!

MR. MODERATE faints!
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« Reply #16 on: March 22, 2010, 12:08:37 pm »

I believe that the toxic environment is no more. The health care industry is not going to fund more Orwellian scare ads; the debate is over.  People know that if their Congressional Representative is a Republican, he voted against the bill and that may be all that they need to know in November. Democrats will use that to hit any incumbent Republican.


I believe that the toxic environment is no more. The industry is not going to fund more Orwellian scare ads; the debate is over.  People know that if their Congressional Representative is a Republican, he voted against the Clinton budget and that may be all that they need to know in November. Democrats will use that to hit any incumbent Republican.

I love playing around with the "date=" number.
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« Reply #17 on: March 23, 2010, 11:28:59 am »

Just ignore Vanderblub, here`s a real poll:

Indiana (Rasmussen)Sad

39% Approve
60% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Indiana was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 17-18, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/indiana/toplines/toplines_2010_indiana_senate_march_17_18_2010

John Kerry numbers!

Indeed, Indiana was for him before they were against him!

Lowest point for Obama in Indiana yet, and probably the lowest point for a long time. This one is still from before the HCR passage, as was the one for Iowa.

Weren't you cautioning just yesterday that no one should make predictions about the future yet regarding Obama's popularity and HCR?
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« Reply #18 on: March 24, 2010, 01:02:31 pm »

If you're going to see a bump in Obama's numbers regarding health care, it will be primarily with Democrats. I'd guess his numbers will enjoy a short-term shoring up in heavily Democratic states (which would be a godsend for Dems in California and Illinois, two Senate seats trending "competitive" where Republicans should be anything but).'

I doubt it moves the needle appreciably in his favor in Ohio.

Anyway, once this health care dust settles, the question becomes: What next? What is Obama going to do over the next eight months to avoid further erosion of his numbers due to the economy?
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« Reply #19 on: March 24, 2010, 02:22:59 pm »


I'm not, but the *real* battleground races are in R+x districts, some heavily tilting towards the GOP. These are not the places where Obama's "victory" helps matters.

In any event, the poisoned environment of American political life has gotten some antidote. Obama won, and the Republicans came out with nothing.

A very short-term antidote. Massachusetts' version of HCR has, by some measures, gotten less popular as time goes on. And we're all freakin' Democrats.

One hopes that we will see the job-creating stage of the economic recovery.

One hopes, yes. I'm not terribly optimistic.
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« Reply #20 on: April 02, 2010, 07:36:06 am »

Alabama was one of the strongest states for John McCain in 2008, and apparently a Senate seat is no sure hold for the Republicans.

This would be the point where you say "APRIL FOOLS" and we all have a good laugh.

If not, then... I suppose we all still get a good laugh.
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« Reply #21 on: April 02, 2010, 09:21:15 am »

Alabama was one of the strongest states for John McCain in 2008, and apparently a Senate seat is no sure hold for the Republicans.

This would be the point where you say "APRIL FOOLS" and we all have a good laugh.

If not, then... I suppose we all still get a good laugh.

This was the guy in previous months seriously arguing that DeMint's 2012 prospects are seriously dampened by his lack of certainty for reelection

HOWARD DEAN CHANGED EVERYTHING
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« Reply #22 on: April 02, 2010, 10:19:38 am »

End of the alphabetical list of states  (Wyoming), following the beginning. One chance in 2450 for that to happen, in case you are so inclined to look at such things. March 25. so an asterisk. Long time, no see indeed!

Let no one say you lack a unique writing style. The non sequiturs could use some work, though.
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« Reply #23 on: April 02, 2010, 01:00:49 pm »

End of the alphabetical list of states  (Wyoming), following the beginning. One chance in 2450 for that to happen, in case you are so inclined to look at such things. March 25. so an asterisk. Long time, no see indeed!

Let no one say you lack a unique writing style. The non sequiturs could use some work, though.

50 x 49 = 2450. It's even more unlikely than that, as neither Alabama nor Wyoming gets polled often.



I understand where you got 2450 from. But there's no use in assigning exact mathematical odds to something that is not left up to random chance. Rasmussen isn't picking state names out of a hat.

Hence why I called it a "non sequitur."
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« Reply #24 on: April 05, 2010, 03:23:13 pm »

Before we all start getting too excited about job creation, remember that a heck of a lot of jobs being "created" right now are for the U.S. Census Bureau, and will only last through July.
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