The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[War on Want]

Germans are gullible people.  Remember, these are the people that elected Hitler.

Yep, and German-Americans voted overwhelmingly for Willkie and Dewey to protest the war against Germany. Kind of sad and scary at the same time.

They also were for the Union and voted for LaFollete.

But yeah mostly I dislike German-American political views.

[War on Want]

Isn;t the PPP poll registered voters?  Rassmusen is likely voters and they Obama in the 60s.  The Gallup and AP polls are all adults.

Isn't the unreported story on these approval ratings that Obama's numbers among people who are paying attention are mediocre and his numbers among people who get their news by reading the cover of Us Weekly in the supermarket checkout are high?

Shouldn't we start saying that PPP and Rasmussen are the canary in the coal mine?  That they are outliers because they measure a different, and more relevant, universe of people than the AP and Gallup polls?  And that their sample is telling us where things are headed?

If you go to Rasmussen though and read most of their polls it is the "political class" that approves of Obama's actions and policies. Their views also tend to be more liberal. If you are trying to put forth the idea that Democrats are idiots and Republicans are not doing it right.

[War on Want]

Arizona (Rasmussen, 500 LV, May 6)

49% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/arizona/toplines/toplines_john_mccain_and_arizona_may_6_2009

This isn't as terrible as it seems. I think this confirms Arizona could be a swing state almost on the level of North Carolina and the state's demographics still have 4 years to change.

[War on Want]

I think Obama could win Utah against Huckabee. Mormon turnout would be very, very low and SLC is bound to vote for Obama at even higher rates due to the few Republican more secular gentiles and  Jack Mormons voting for Obama along with the city growing somewhat in the next four years. This is if he wages a masterful campaign with perfect conditions though. I think if Obama has 55% approval ratings and conducts an average campaign the closest he could make Utah is in the low 40's.

Idaho would also get significantly closer in the southern areas with Huckabee as a candidate. Evangelicals are pretty non-existent until you get to Boise and Mountain Home. In other words if Huckabee is nominated pretty large parts of the West will swing even further towards Obama, while others should actually go towards Huckabee.

[War on Want]

Just like Carter!  Good path to be following.

America doesn't need another Reagan.

[War on Want]

All of this talk is stupid. You can't assume things based on three or four approval rating polls and then make very baseless assumptions about the rest of the country. I do think Obama's approval ratings will consistently be heading down until it seems clear that the economy is beginning to recover though.

[War on Want]

These keep getting better and better.  I'm not a big fan of the rub-it-in thing after an election is over, but this is just too obnoxious.  I hope this is still going strong by the time 2012 rolls around because these maps are going to be hilarious.  And they'll be totally within the limits of reasonable gloating because of the total arrogance of the whole thing.  "Like, duh Obama is going to win Missouri by more than 10 points, are you kidding me?  Pssh..."

Don't tell me you guys didn't do this after 2004. At least we have more logic on our side than you guys did, Bush barely beat John Kerry, who was an anemic candidate. Obama could easily be an extremely popular president and you know your party has huge problems right now. Chances are that he will win pretty easily if the economy improves. Nothing definite can be said right now though, that's for sure.

[War on Want]

Obama is slipping some -- probably because he is out of the country.

Haha, what?  Do you think people are like, "Ah! I don't see the President! Where is he, where is he?! He's horrible!"

I don't think that's the reason his approval ratings have fallen (slightly...), but the perception that he's spending too much time focusing on international issues, which is reinforced when people see photos of him smiling with Putin or Medvedev, and not doing anything to help the economy certainly can't be helpful (in the short term, at least).

Yeah the fact that he has spent so much time focusing on foriegn policy with almost no attention put on the economy has gotten even me irritated with him.

[War on Want]

Obama is down to 51% in Rassy and down to  56% in the RCP average.

Don't worry, Dems, I'm sure that Obama is as invincible as you've all told us for months.

I'm not worried considering Saint Reagan was sitting at 35% in Gallup as of January 1983

Saint Reagan's won because the economy recovered in the second half of '83.  So Obama should be fine if the next election doesn't happen until 2017.

I don't see how the economy would take that long to recover when almost every group of economists has predicted the recovery to start in 2010...

[War on Want]

Really? Really? Still using the "his approvals drop only because he left the country" theory?

This is actually partially true. The image of Obama touring the world, instead of focusing on domestic issues probably has hurt him. If he makes a few grandiose speeches on economic policy and the direction of the country his approval should bump up a little.

[War on Want]

I think Republicans need to step back and see how things play out.  Obama's still very early on in his first term and there's more than enough time for him to make these falling numbers go back up again before the next election.  I personally hope they just keep getting lower and lower, because I think everything about him is scary and anti-American and I'm glad my fellow citizens are starting to wise up to his act, but Republicans need to take all of this with a grain of salt or else they'll appear as even bigger fools than they've been acting like for the past six or seven months.

How is anything Obama does scary and anti-American?

[War on Want]

Clay is from Georgia. Obama is a black.

No.

Just.....

No.

Well than how anything Obama has been doing unamerican?

[War on Want]

You are talking about 15-16 year olds? They are very democratic.

Somewhat true, but a lot of teens are only democrat because Obama was running. Most teens don't know what the difference between a Republican and  a Democrat. I think the GOP needs to show teens the principles of the party.

Here's how most teens figure politics:
George Bush = Bad = Republican
Obama = God = Democrat

So most teens think since they like Obama then they are a democrat. When they mature, they will figure it out and become more conservative.

Very true. These teens will only know a country controlled by Democrats, so any mistakes will make the Democrats look bad in their eyes.

I'd say they will still be pretty heavily Democratic based on issues and the general feel of the Democrats. As long as the Republicans stay very socially conservative and anti-environmental they will be unpopular among the youth. Plus the youth is very heavily made up of minorities.

[War on Want]

You can't even compare Obama to Reagan or FDR or even LBJ.  And if anything, it's the left that's recalcitrant.  Or at least they were when Bush was president.  The right is only giving them a taste of their own medicine.

Yeah, it's all the fault of the recalcitrant left who voted against Bush's tax cuts, the Patriot Act, the Iraq War, Bush's Prescription Drug Benefit, etc.

Actually the Iraq War would have went much smoother had the left not kept getting in the way of Bush's actions and constantly criticizing him.

No.

[War on Want]

Sigh.  No one said all government spening is inflationary.  But if government spending forces the central bank to monetize debt (as is happenning now) it will be inflationary.

What would be bad about inflation if we are starting to get into levels of big amounts of deflation...

[War on Want]

What a disturbing piece of work the Right wingers have made, I'm sure that's going to get them In the White House!

Kind of like this photo got the dems in the white house.
Yep, it's Bush.


Oh wait, what about this one, it's a real hitter.

None of those pictures got the Democrats into the white house...

[War on Want]

I am pretty sure that Obama carrying Virginia in 2012 is very unlikely.  It was probably a one time thing. 

Nah, I am thinking there is a very good chance he will take it again. It all depends on the margin of victory. NOVA should continue to go strong for him, that's for sure.

[War on Want]

But the Dems seem to have selective outrage. It's okay to mock Bush, but not okay to mock Obama.

Mockery of George W. Bush began early when many questioned whether he had been elected fair-and-square. That faded on 9/11. It began anew as reports emerged that the basis of the invasion of Iraq was specious, and intensified after the bungled response to Hurricane Katrina.

Anyone who fouls up as badly as Dubya did, and not only for holding the "wrong" ideology, deserves mockery. But even the great ones (except perhaps Washington) get mockery. Lincoln did, and FDR did.  

Question: is the mockery valid?
 

If it's funny, I really couldn't care less about mocking. It's when you get into the area of disrespect, then it gets sketchy.

You disrespect Obama all the time...

[War on Want]

RAS had Mccain gaining In PA last fall.They had people supporting Drill Baby Drill.How well
did that go.As a rule I Ignore RAS untill we are In General Elections then they can be taken
seriously.As for CBS/NYTimes polls calling them liberal orginazations are a joke.The New York
Times buried the surveilance programs till 2005.And If you think CBS Is proObama that Is
news to the Democratic base.

Not really.  His final poll (if I'm not mistaken) showed Obama+8.

Rasmussen was pretty accurate during this cycle. He may have been 1-2 points bias to the Republicans, but nothing along the lines of how this forum depicts them. Obama's approvals are certainly not at the NYT and CBS levels. Those firms are just as bias as Rasmussen. Anyone who claims otherwise is a mindless hack.

No one is arguing that his election polls are inaccurate but rather his off year polls.

[War on Want]

RAS had Mccain gaining In PA last fall.They had people supporting Drill Baby Drill.How well
did that go.As a rule I Ignore RAS untill we are In General Elections then they can be taken
seriously.As for CBS/NYTimes polls calling them liberal orginazations are a joke.The New York
Times buried the surveilance programs till 2005.And If you think CBS Is proObama that Is
news to the Democratic base.

Not really.  His final poll (if I'm not mistaken) showed Obama+8.

Rasmussen was pretty accurate during this cycle. He may have been 1-2 points bias to the Republicans, but nothing along the lines of how this forum depicts them. Obama's approvals are certainly not at the NYT and CBS levels. Those firms are just as bias as Rasmussen. Anyone who claims otherwise is a mindless hack.

No one is arguing that his election polls are inaccurate but rather his off year polls.

Really? He was pretty accurate on the 2006 Senate races and nailed Virginia. In which case was he inaccurate in off year polls? I am using his most recent examples. I know Rasmussen was a mess in 2000 and 2002.

By off year polls, I mean in reading public opinion.

[War on Want]

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

54% Yes, 26% No

That's pretty embarassing considering the "Yes" is only a few points higher than the percentage that voted for him.

Don't forget than there is a part of the ''No'' who voted for Barack Obama. In the polls, there were always a part of the population who was ''I vote for Obama, but I think he is not born in America''.

Including a measurable percentage who believed he was Muslim and voted for him anyway.

Except there were almost none of these people. I'm sure in a Romney vs. Obama contest there would be a lot more birthers for Obama.

[War on Want]

I have confidence that his approvals will rebound by this winter.

[War on Want]

Democrats should have never wanted to win this election.  This has just been a disaster.  Democrats need to start running away from and against Obama like they did to Carter. 

Don't blame the cycle. The economy isn't helping, but the real problem is a leadership vacuum.

Obama has no leadership experience and it shows. Bush may have consistently led us down the wrong path, but at least he could lead.

But, yes, you're right, it's time for 2010 Dems in vulnerable seats to shy away from White House photo ops. Maybe even for 2009.

This is a stupid statement on so many levels. Obama is still fairly popular, and is still extremely popular among the base. We have no idea what his approval ratings will be in the next year There are too many things that no one knows about that makes this a dumb statement.

[War on Want]

Illinois (Rasmussen)

56% Approve
42% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/illinois/toplines_illinois_senate_august_12_2009

Uh... WHAT? Obama's definitely in a bad state ATM.

According to Scott Rasmussen's off-year polling, he sure is.

And as everyone knows Rasmussen's off-year polling is terrible. There is no way Kirk is up by three in Illinois. I could see a tie or a close race but not Kirk leading.

[War on Want]

Illinois (Rasmussen)

56% Approve
42% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/illinois/toplines_illinois_senate_august_12_2009

Uh... WHAT? Obama's definitely in a bad state ATM.

According to Scott Rasmussen's off-year polling, he sure is.

And as everyone knows Rasmussen's off-year polling is terrible. There is no way Kirk is up by three in Illinois. I could see a tie or a close race but not Kirk leading.

How is a tie really all that different than a 3 point lead when you factor in the MOE?

eh I don't really ever factor in MOE's. There's a difference between a three point lead and a tie for sure though.