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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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HokeyDood
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« on: February 19, 2009, 02:07:43 pm »

Update:

Rasmussen: 60% Approve, 39% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Gallup: 62% Approve, 25% Disapprove

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics: 60% Approve, 26% Disapprove

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/021909_FNCPoll.pdf

ARG: 60% Approve, 33% Disapprove

http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

AP-GfK: 67% Approve, 24% Disapprove

http://surveys.ap.org/data%5CGfK%5CAP-GfK%20Poll%20Topline%20021809.pdf

.....

New York (Quinnipiac)Sad

72% Approve, 17% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1267

Florida (Quinnipiac)Sad

64% Approve, 23% Disapprove
69% Favorable, 22% Unfavorable

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1266

North Carolina (PPP)Sad

52% Approve, 41% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_218.pdf

NC can't be right. 
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2010, 08:49:10 pm »



That actually puts the Republican at 280 with the new Census projections. 
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #2 on: April 05, 2010, 11:48:09 am »

The horror scenario for Republicans concerning 2012 is taking shape.

It's 2 and a half years out. Don't jump the gun.

Understood, but you have to keep in mind the trends.  The economy is certainly trending towards recovery; especially in job creation.  This trend is not only prevalent right now during Obama's administration, but has been seen over many different Democratic administrations. 

Someone used to have a very useful graph of job creation during Republican and Democratic admins as their signature and I wish they still had it. 

Either way, the economy and job markets are most likely going to be at least somewhat  better in 2012 than when Obama took office.  If it's only meager improvement I could see a good GOP campaign stealing one... but I don't think we are going to see a gigantic rejection ala Jimmy Carter in 2012.   
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2010, 04:33:49 pm »

I think Rasmussen is probably always going to be a few points skewed towards the Republicans in state polls. 
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #4 on: May 14, 2010, 04:25:34 pm »

I've not really been paying attention, but since we're only about 2 years away from serious campaign season, I'll start paying attention. 

So who's really more trustworthy here? 

Rasmussen is showing Obama at -7

Gallup is showing him at +11

That's a huge difference, what are their methods if they are tracking this every day?  I'm inclined to believe Gallup more because they've been doing Presidential approval for almost a century now and I remember Rasmussen's numbers always seemingly to be skewed towards the GOP a bit. 
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2010, 11:56:11 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44% -1

Disapprove 55% +1


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.


There is erosion in the base.

It's the oil spill.  When that blows over in the media it will come back up a little bit.  As of right now, it doesn't seem like calling the spill "Obama's Katrina" (as retarded as it is) is helping him at all. 

And Rasmussen is probably a little more to the right, so I'd put his approval probably around 47-48. 
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2010, 03:29:48 pm »

Minnesota State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted May 24, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

36% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
12% Somewhat disapprove
34% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Forty states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have just adjusted the colors for "medium" blue to create a sharper contrast.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  188
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  27
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 128
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   66
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 46
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

I love Minnesota
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2010, 03:44:46 pm »


pbrower, NJ is about 50% registered independents with so many state issues that pre-occupy us.  11% undecided is probably very accurate. 
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2010, 02:23:37 pm »

I really think all he has to do is stay above 45-46%.  His approvals are going to go up when he starts campaigning for reelection.  He's a very savvy politican and he's good representing himself on the campaign trail. 

His image is being defined by the media and talking points right now.  Example: "Oh noes!  Is BP Obama's Katrina?"..... I could go on for days about how stupid that statement is but unfortunately many Americans are stupid enough to take it seriously.   
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2010, 01:31:26 pm »

45% of residents in Indiana disapprove of Obama, 57% of the entire population disapprove of him. This is a state Obama actually won in 2012. You're saying it's bad for Republicans that Obama is performing miserably? I'd say just the opposite. This race will obviously be much closer than it was in 2012, and Indiana will easily go to the Republican.

Once again... we are TWO YEARS AND 4 MONTHS FROM ELECTION DAY!!!!
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2010, 01:44:54 pm »


Oh, Oklahoma.  lol indeed. 
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2010, 01:37:18 pm »

So I would figure that the actual approval rating of Obama is right around 46-47%.  I don't really think that's too bad considering the overall negativity of the coverage he's received and that he needs more than 19-20 months to clean up Bush's mess.

I expect him to be back in the green by year's end.  I wish someone other than Rasmussen would do regular state polls so we had a more accurate average.  What happened to SurveryUSA doing approval polls all the time? 
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #12 on: August 24, 2010, 02:35:20 pm »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +2.

A strong Obama sample has moved out of the system.


Just curious.  It seems that recently there have been an even number of days showing Obama around 47-48% and those showing him around 44-45%. 

How come every day it goes a little up it must have just been a good Obama sample?  Isn't it just as easy for me to say today's sample is a BAD Obama sample? 
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #13 on: August 25, 2010, 09:56:33 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +2.

A strong Obama sample has moved out of the system.



Just curious.  It seems that recently there have been an even number of days showing Obama around 47-48% and those showing him around 44-45%. 

How come every day it goes a little up it must have just been a good Obama sample?  Isn't it just as easy for me to say today's sample is a BAD Obama sample? 

Over the last two months the low for Obama, which was due to a bad sample, was 41% in approve.  The high was 49%.  Based on that, I generally refer to approval rates at 47%-49% and 41%-43% as probably good and bad samples, respectively, unless they stay around for more than three days. 

In other words, every little down is a bad Obama sample.  I'm saying he's staying stable.

I would note that when Obama was at 43% approval (about 10 days ago), I said "bad Obama sample."

Perhaps I should ask why you only ask the question after the good sample moves through the numbers, and not when a bad sample drops out?


Because the thread has become rather "hackish" at times.  I'm well aware of the mean and range of the numbers, I'm just wondering how you are interpreting it. 
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #14 on: August 25, 2010, 04:52:01 pm »

A prediction at this point it's kind of hard to do.... but I'm going to guess it ends up kind of like this.  



Obama 323 - 52%
Challenger 215 - 47%

Basically, the conservatives that went with him in 2008 are pushed away by now, costing him NC and IN.  He loses the big margins in the West and 9 EVs in the historically very anti-incumbant Colorado.  Other than that the economy SEEMS to be heading in the right direction and Obama is able to highlight the things he has been able to accomplish.  Not the victory he enjoyed in 2008, but since generally the country seems to be making progress we stick with him.  

(Not only that, but I'm predicting the GOP winds up with a candidate and campaign that's WAAAAAAAY too much to the right of the country as a whole)
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #15 on: September 08, 2010, 09:51:18 am »

Hmmmm... NBC/WSJ shows him at -4 for approval but +5 on favorables in the same poll.  Maybe it turns out that many Americans don't approve of the way things are going but they generally still like the guy.

As a political junkie, I'm almost hoping that the day before election day we have Obama at 49% approval/51% disapproval but 51% favorable/49% unfavorable among likely voters.  That would wind up being one of the more unpredictable but oh-so-close elections in history.  You would have a solid chunk of the population going out to vote that day not having made up their mind.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2010, 04:14:34 pm »


Indeed.  I would LOVE that state to just go be it's own country. 
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2010, 04:58:28 pm »

General note about the Strongly/Somewhat question that Rassmussen uses.  I hate it, I really do.  You know why?  Because I somewhat approve of what Obama has done in office.  I also somewhat DISAPPROVE of what he's done in office.  I really wish they would just go with approve/disapprove, I would imagine it is actually a lot more accurate.  Unless, they start with that first question... and THEN ask "do you strongly or only somewhat approve/disapprove"... but I still think the simple 2-answer question is better [/rant]

Anyhoo, I think if Pennsylvania's newest numbers are anywhere close to correct, then Obama's in good shape for the state in 2012.  40% willing to say they STRONGLY disapprove (even though I hate the system) is on the low side compared to the national average. 

I'd love to see another election where the GOP throws a ton of resources at Pennsylvania.  It's the GOP's wet dream in the same way Texas is going to be the Democrats' down the road.  I don't think it's winnable for them in a close election.  They're better off going in attack mode on FL, OH, VA, and CO.  Without one of those four the Democrats are screwed and as of today Obama would NOT win any of them. 
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2010, 08:58:21 am »

All I have to say is that there's seems to be quite a disconnect between the Northeast and the rest of the country when it comes to their opinion of the President. 

58% in New York, 56% in Maryland, 63% in Vermont, 60% in Rhode Island... all from the same polling company that has him at 44% nationally. Barack Obama would not be pulling that percentage of the vote in any of those states in 2012 if he only got 44% of the vote nationally (which is quite a beating). 

It's not a HUGE discrepancy, but it does seem that a lot of Obama's support seems to be quite disproportionally centered in the Northeast. 
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #19 on: September 21, 2010, 10:04:26 am »

FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen:

Delaware: 45-46

Nevada: 40-52

California: 45-47

Pennsylvania: 37-54

Ohio: 38-57

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/21/fox-news-polls-track-tea-party-influence-battleground-states/

Unfortunately for Republicans, nothing done for Fox News should be taken seriously, even if it is Rasmussen. 
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2010, 12:22:13 pm »

FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen:

Delaware: 45-46

Nevada: 40-52

California: 45-47

Pennsylvania: 37-54

Ohio: 38-57

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/21/fox-news-polls-track-tea-party-influence-battleground-states/

Unfortunately for Republicans, nothing done for Fox News should be taken seriously, even if it is Rasmussen. 
Unfortunately for members on this forum, nothing should be taken seriously about this thread or Pbrower's predictions for 2012.  He skews them in his favor.

I look at the numbers in my own way, this is just a nice place to go since all the polls are in one place.

Rasmussen surely have the best idea of where the country is, but when they do a poll specifically to be shown on Fox News, which in my mind is not a news organization, I don't really pay attention to it.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2010, 02:49:18 pm »

FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen:

Delaware: 45-46

Nevada: 40-52

California: 45-47

Pennsylvania: 37-54

Ohio: 38-57

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/21/fox-news-polls-track-tea-party-influence-battleground-states/

Unfortunately for Republicans, nothing done for Fox News should be taken seriously, even if it is Rasmussen.  
Unfortunately for members on this forum, nothing should be taken seriously about this thread or Pbrower's predictions for 2012.  He skews them in his favor.

I look at the numbers in my own way, this is just a nice place to go since all the polls are in one place.

Rasmussen surely have the best idea of where the country is, but when they do a poll specifically to be shown on Fox News, which in my mind is not a news organization, I don't really pay attention to it.

Are you bothered that statistical analysis of past Fox News polls doesn't back up your claim at all?


...thanks.

See post before this one. 

(And I'm sure it being election season affects what will be broadcast on the official mouthpiece of the GOP)

I've always noticed some Fox News/Rasmussen polls to be skewed against Democrats.  I wouldn't be making that claim if I hadn't noticed it.  The newest numbers are suspect to say the least.  45% in Delaware?  37% in Pennsylvania?  When RECENT independent Rasmussen polls have shown Obama in the mid-50s in Delaware and high 40s in Pennsylvania?  Uhhh... nah, man.  I'll ignore Fox thank you very much.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2010, 03:19:30 pm »


Right -- when this one is available:

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       39% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       35% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

...something is wrong with a "news" organization which tries to shape political life by putting out polls that it likes.

FoX News/Opinion Dynamics had objective polling in 2008 -- but NOT NOW!

If I see anything it is the statewide polarization characteristic of 2008.
Balance the two, you have always done that before, especially in North Carolina. You still need to add the other polls too. There is no reason for you to reject these when you take CNN ones.

I agree with what you say. Pbrower, balance out the polls if you only accept CNN over Fox News or alot of people will stop taking your polls seriously.

FoX News is an oxymoron.
Pbrower, you will lose any credibility you still have if you don't include the FOX polls. Because let's face it, if those polls were very pro-Obama, you would have immediately added them. You just don't want to because they aren't good for your messiah.

He does pull a lot of pro-Obama bullsh**te, but would you agree or disagree that FoxNews is a legitimate NEWS source?  In this particular case, I would have to agree with him in ignoring these polls.  When the SAME company polls California independently and gets a very believable number, then polls for an organization that is known for extreme right wing bias and gets a radically different number that is on the low end of the spectrum you have to question the credibility.  

And before you jump down my throat I also ignore PPP polls due to their affiliation with the Democrats.  
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #23 on: September 26, 2010, 01:22:55 pm »

Typo corrected!

Those who have made much of the gap between "Strongly disapprove" and "Strongly approve" can't deny this one. 

There's not really much of an improvement.  Obama's been at these sort of numbers for the last year or so, though the "Movement" is more him rising back towards his negative-teens average rather than the lower numbers of August.

Probably the GZ Mosque issue has blown over.

I think it is this combined with the fact that he's been out there in campaign mode for the Democrats... which in all honestly is his strength. 
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #24 on: September 28, 2010, 11:24:02 am »

His numbers have been remarkably consistent since early this year.  I wonder why now of all times he would be seeing a bit of a boost when there still seems to be an anti-incumbent fervor out there. 

Funny how Gallup always gave him better numbers before and now that Rasmussen has him back above 50% Gallup is showing him at 44%.

 
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