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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1014811 times)
Zarn
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« on: May 03, 2009, 01:06:34 am »

An exit poll is just that. Another poll.
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Zarn
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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2009, 01:18:25 am »

All polls have different 'flaws and benefits.'

It's just not hard enough data.
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Zarn
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« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2009, 09:47:55 am »

All polls have different 'flaws and benefits.'

In a very specific sense, yes.  But exit polls have a radically different methodology and sample than phone polls -- they are hence not "just...another poll."  That's what I meant, at least.

It's just not hard enough data.

What do you mean by "hard," and it's not hard enough for what?

Hard data is an actual count.
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Zarn
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« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2009, 01:04:25 pm »

I think a more negative sample simply came off in Rasmussen more so than an actual gain.
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Zarn
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« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2009, 10:26:53 am »

Still, saying the same.

He went down to plus 1 in the stronglys, so it is not unreasonable that he bounces back.
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Zarn
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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2009, 11:55:28 am »

Seems that way, even from not having the internals...
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Zarn
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« Reply #6 on: May 11, 2009, 01:37:15 pm »

Actually, McCain is not overwhelmingly popular in AZ right now. He does have enough, support, however.
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Zarn
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« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2009, 07:06:42 pm »

If you have the following:

Election day approval rating of each state
Election day vote percentage of each state
Current approval rating of each state

Then you can come up with:

Educated guess of the current vote percentage

If you want better, you would have to find a way to compare the 2008 McCain/ Palin ticket to any potential 2012 Republican tickets.
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Zarn
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« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2009, 09:34:24 pm »

I never said it would be easy.

Some states are more populistic (Ohio), some more libertarian (Arizona), some more liberal (Rhode Island), and some more conservative (Mississippi). It would be very rough estimation.
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Zarn
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« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2009, 10:35:31 pm »

Yes, because of one approval rating poll, Obama will lose Colorado.

Stop overanalyzing the approval ratings. You're not helping yourselves become decent political analysts; you're just looking like fools.

Roll Eyes

Wait... some people here don't look like fools?
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Zarn
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« Reply #10 on: June 05, 2009, 01:29:11 pm »

I think his Rasmussen numbers will bounce back. I don't think they'll hit the 60's any time soon, but I don't think people are completely fed up with him just yet. It's very possible that yesterday was an outlier.

Lookng at the trends, it does seem to be more partisan than the previous days.
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Zarn
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« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2009, 03:42:30 pm »

After getting his best results in a while, Rasmussen today shows Obama with his worst approvals so far:

54% Approve
46% Disapprove

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 34% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-four percent (34%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of 0. Thatís the highest level of strong disapproval and the lowest overall rating yet recorded."

Image Link

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

There is no way that there are absolutely zero undecideds.  Majorly flawed poll. 

He was one of the most accurate pollsters in the last several elections. This is also not among adults but likely voters. Majorly flawed post.
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Zarn
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« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2009, 04:32:36 pm »

After getting his best results in a while, Rasmussen today shows Obama with his worst approvals so far:

54% Approve
46% Disapprove

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 34% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-four percent (34%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of 0. Thatís the highest level of strong disapproval and the lowest overall rating yet recorded."

Image Link

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

There is no way that there are absolutely zero undecideds.  Majorly flawed poll. 

He was one of the most accurate pollsters in the last several elections. This is also not among adults but likely voters. Majorly flawed post.

He was almost never right with Bush's approval ratings.  All throughout 2006 when Bush's ratings were around 30% in most polls, Rasmussen consistantly had him in the mid 40's. 

Way to not read what I typed...
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Zarn
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« Reply #13 on: June 06, 2009, 11:51:49 pm »

Rasmussen had him at 65% on the day after inauguration.

In late January, he was at 69% for Gallup.

A fall is a fall.
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Zarn
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« Reply #14 on: June 07, 2009, 12:15:22 am »

Rasmussen had him at 65% on the day after inauguration.

In late January, he was at 69% for Gallup.

A fall is a fall.

Of course he's going to fall from his approval ratings right after his inauguration. That should have been the high point of his approvals, at least until some major positive news event happens.

Then people shouldn't complain about Ras's findings. Some people took the GM bankruptcy thing a bit hard. It's not rocket science to see it as a potential cause for numbers dropping.
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Zarn
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« Reply #15 on: June 07, 2009, 12:38:19 am »

The point is that Rasmussen should stop using a likely voter model in an off-year.
It's better than an adult poll.

I really don't see a problem with a likely voter poll, anyway. People were complaining about it, during the election season, too.
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Zarn
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« Reply #16 on: June 08, 2009, 09:35:15 am »

Rasmussen is back up to 56-43 (+3, -3) and +7 again.

Yeah, the one outlier came off.
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Zarn
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« Reply #17 on: June 10, 2009, 01:28:41 pm »

Gallup is showing their highest disapproval and lowest approval to date.  They're also getting closer and closer to Rasmussen

Gallup:

Approve 59%
Disapprove 34%


Rasmussen:

Approve 57%
Disapprove 42%

I don't see an approval in the late 50's as surprising. What I do find slightly surprising is that there is only a 2% difference between likely voters and all adults.
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Zarn
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« Reply #18 on: June 11, 2009, 10:54:40 am »

You can't switch results. That's not how it works.
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Zarn
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« Reply #19 on: June 11, 2009, 02:16:55 pm »

Considering Obama's approvals are mediocre, that isn't happening.
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Zarn
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« Reply #20 on: June 11, 2009, 09:27:37 pm »

If his approvals in VA are down, he will not end up getting more votes there...
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Zarn
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« Reply #21 on: June 12, 2009, 08:50:48 am »

Fox always gave him high approvals...
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Zarn
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« Reply #22 on: June 12, 2009, 05:20:58 pm »

Hmm, I find it strange to see Gallup's adult voter model having lower approvals than Fox's registered voter model ...

Fox is a liberal commie poll, quite obviously.

Like I just said, but you ignored... Fox always gives him high ratings.
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Zarn
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« Reply #23 on: June 14, 2009, 11:36:39 pm »

Didn't someone tell you that approval and who would actually vote for him are two different things?
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Zarn
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« Reply #24 on: June 15, 2009, 08:48:37 am »

It's not the best you have. You can use the actual votes in Nov, the approval in Nov, plus the approvals of today.
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