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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016080 times)
tmthforu94
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Posts: 21,078
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Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« on: January 22, 2009, 07:39:19 pm »

Interesting numbers.
I didn't know he has accomplished that much in less than a week. People should wait a bit before automatically loving him. If I had to guess, because he won't be able to make all of his promises, in one year, he will be around 55-60%.
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tmthforu94
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*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2009, 04:57:52 pm »

Oh you're part of the blame America first crowd too. Good to know.

And yes, I do admire my country. I live in the greatest country on Earth.

How is your crowd called? Delusional, flag waving, ultra-nationalist defenders of ''Manifest Destiny''?
Or perhaps the ''White Resentment Appreciation Association''?

Grow up man! The 80's are over and Ronald Reagan is still dead.
And I hate to break it to you, but the greatest country on earth is owed by China. So get used to some ass kissing.
 
Shocked
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tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2009, 03:24:11 pm »

Hmmm, I wasn't expecting Colorado to be so low. I know it's only one poll, but judging by it, Republicans will at least have a shot to win it back in 2012.
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tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2009, 03:38:37 pm »

You should not base 2012 predictions on polls that are 44 months out. These are just for fun. Your posts will only get bumped in the future and laughed at.

I'm not stupid. If you look at my post, I said "I know it's only one poll" and "a shot". I'm not making an predictions. I'm just going off this one poll, which I obviously know is premature. Honestly though, if the election was today, I know Colorado would vote for Obama. But if the Colorado ratings are this much lower than the national ratings, we could have a good chance, even if Obama has a 50% approval rating nationwide.
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tmthforu94
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Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2009, 03:34:10 pm »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Smiley
I think this will close any assumptions that Kansas could vote for Obama under a good term.
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tmthforu94
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*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2009, 04:00:24 pm »


Totally.
If I had to guess it, it would be about
Approve: 54%
Disapprove:40%
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tmthforu94
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Posts: 21,078
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Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2009, 05:10:30 pm »

I'm more interested in states such as Idaho, Wyoming or Nebraska than Indiana to be honest.
Are you being sarcastic?
Because I would love to see polling there. I mean, is there any chance Obama could win there in 4 years?
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tmthforu94
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*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2009, 12:33:47 pm »

The gap between Rasmussen and Gallup is widening again:

54-45 (nc, nc) vs. 67-28 (+4, -3 in the last 2 days)
I'm going to say it's right in the middle of those 2. Probably about 60-35, which is average for a President at this time.
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tmthforu94
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Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2009, 08:01:11 pm »

OBAMA IS NOT WINNING UTAH UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. NONE. ZILCH.
Disagree
If Huckabee is the nominee, it will be close. If Obama's approval ratings are above 60%, and Huckabee is the Republican nominee, Obama will carry the state. Romney would barely get 60% under that scenario.
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tmthforu94
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*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #9 on: May 22, 2009, 09:48:01 pm »

OBAMA IS NOT WINNING UTAH UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. NONE. ZILCH.
Disagree
If Huckabee is the nominee, it will be close. If Obama's approval ratings are above 60%, and Huckabee is the Republican nominee, Obama will carry the state. Romney would barely get 60% under that scenario.

I'm sorry but you are wrong, dead wrong. Please try again.

I'm dead right. Mormons hate Huckabee. Many will stay home on election day. The whole southwest is trending Democrat. A strong Obama term + Huckabee as the Republican nominee = Utah going Democrat
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tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2009, 09:39:16 am »

I think Obama could win Utah against Huckabee. Mormon turnout would be very, very low and SLC is bound to vote for Obama at even higher rates due to the few Republican more secular gentiles and  Jack Mormons voting for Obama along with the city growing somewhat in the next four years. This is if he wages a masterful campaign with perfect conditions though. I think if Obama has 55% approval ratings and conducts an average campaign the closest he could make Utah is in the low 40's.

Idaho would also get significantly closer in the southern areas with Huckabee as a candidate. Evangelicals are pretty non-existent until you get to Boise and Mountain Home. In other words if Huckabee is nominated pretty large parts of the West will swing even further towards Obama, while others should actually go towards Huckabee.
Agreed.
If it's a tight race nationally, Huckabee would win in Utah. But if Obama was approval rating's in the 60's, maybe even high 50's, Utah will be extremely competitive. Mormon turnout will be ridiculously low. They could just flock to a 3rd party candidate.
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tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #11 on: May 23, 2009, 12:38:22 pm »

When did you become an independent?  Are the mean Republicans purging moderates again? Sad
Pretty much
Actually, I'll give a small list...
1. I don't approve of our chairman
2. Huckabee is doing way to well in polls
3. Far Right Republicans are ruling our party, and want all moderates out.
4. Rush and Hannity are becoming the voices of our party...that is scary Sad
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tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #12 on: May 23, 2009, 12:43:38 pm »

When did you become an independent?  Are the mean Republicans purging moderates again? Sad
Pretty much
Actually, I'll give a small list...
1. I don't approve of our chairman
2. Huckabee is doing way to well in polls
3. Far Right Republicans are ruling our party, and want all moderates out.
4. Rush and Hannity are becoming the voices of our party...that is scary Sad

5. I realize that having a conservative viewpoint on this forum will not help me make "forum friends", therefore I better get in line quick with the clique or they'll hate me.

6. I realize that the amount of conservatives in America is getting smaller and smaller, and unless we adjust to the center, we're screwed in Presidential elections.
7. Many of the Democrats on here are quite smart, and thanks to them, I'm seeing clearer how Democrats think. And actually, it isn't all that bad, although I tend to agree with Republicans more.
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tmthforu94
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Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #13 on: May 23, 2009, 12:51:35 pm »

My point exactly. We could use another Josh22 though.

What's your point?
The only reason I was so conservative when I got on here was because I've been brainwashed by my Dad for the past 15 years of my life. He thinks Democrats had planned on Gore winning in 2000, and had already paid terrorists to bomb the World Trade Centers so Democrats would look strong on National Security. Thanks to some people on here, I've becomed more open-minded, and have reversed my position on some key issues.
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tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #14 on: May 23, 2009, 12:53:50 pm »

I don't think so
I'm only 15
Why?
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tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #15 on: May 23, 2009, 01:50:14 pm »

We all know that his only reason for switching to an I avatar is to protest against Huckabee.

I actually agree with Ben...
Why does it matter?
Seriously
And yes, protesting Huckabee is part of the reason. I don't like him. I'm not going to support him. I wouldn't leave the party just because of him though. Other reasons are involved.
And besides, I'm not a Republican. I'm not even a registered voter. It doesn't really matter how I feel until 2012, because that's when I vote.
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tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #16 on: June 17, 2009, 02:21:47 pm »

He's slightly going down. New Mexico is interesting, as it is below the national average. It could end up being a toss-up on election day, 2012. I'm still suprised how high Obama's approval ratings are in Virginia though. Besides that, nothing suprising here. I think most expect Obama's approval ratings to keep slipping until the economy recovers (if it does).
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tmthforu94
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*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #17 on: June 18, 2009, 12:36:08 pm »

National (CBS/NYT):

Obama (Job Approval):

Approve 63% (-); Disapprove 26% (-)

Foreign policy: Approve 59% (-); Disapprove 25% (-)
The threat of terrorism: Approve 57% (+2); Disapprove 24% (-4)
The economy: Approve 57% (+1); Disapprove 35% (+2)
Health care: Approve 44%; Disapprove 34%
Problems facing the auto industry: Approve 41%; Disapprove 46%

Views of the budget deficit:

41% say the government should spend money to stimulate the economy, even if it means increasing the deficit; 54% say the government should not spend money to stimulate the economy and should instead focus on reducing the deficit

30% say that the Obama administration has developed a clear strategy for dealing with the budget deficit; 60% say it has not

Democratic Party: Favorable 57% (+1); Unfavorable 32% (-2)
Republican Party: Favorable 28% (-3); Unfavorable 58% (-)

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/18/us/politics/18poll.html?_r=2&ref=politics

CBS/NYT interviewed 895 adults between June 12-16, 2009. Sample: Democrat 35% (-); Republican 24% (+4); Independent 31% (-5)
It's quite interesting that Obama's approval rating is higher than the issues, which proves that many Americans are "in love" with Obama, despite the fact they don't like what he's doing...
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tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #18 on: June 22, 2009, 10:10:02 am »

Nevada (Mason-Dixon)Sad

47% Excellent/Good (25% Excellent, 22% Good)
50% Fair/Poor (25% Fair, 25% Poor)

49% Favorable
32% Unfavorable
19% Neutral

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C., from June 18 through June 19, 2009. A total of 625 registered Nevada voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/june_2009_polls.html

It looks like the Mountain West states are now 50\50 on Obama, after voting for him decisively in the election. I saw a poll from New Mexico where his numbers were barely 50\50. Colorado approves of him, but not very strongly.

Can anyone explain this? My guess is that the libertarians in these states may have supported Obama on election day, but they don't support him anymore.
I think that when a lot of people voted for Obama, they were giving him a chance. They didn't agree with his views as much as they did McCain, but they wanted to see what he could do. He hasn't done a lot, and our economy is still failing, so of course they are going to go against him. Far left people are annoyed that Obama is governing to the center, and centrists think Obama is governing to the left. If this continues, I think he'll face a serious primary challenge in 2012.
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tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #19 on: June 22, 2009, 10:44:47 am »

My own little map, of what I expect the map would look like if the election was tomorrow.



Prediction: By the end of 2009, Obama will have negative approval ratings in Montana, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada, the Mountain West swing states.
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tmthforu94
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*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #20 on: June 22, 2009, 03:39:26 pm »

...
His ratings are in a freefall. I'm surprised, as my opinion of him has slightly improved over the past few weeks.
Will Obama's approval rating be lower than his disapproval rating by the end of the year, by RCP averages? I was sceptical, but I think there is a chance, unless the economy quickly recovers.
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tmthforu94
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*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #21 on: June 29, 2009, 01:35:40 pm »

jesus christ. who the hell is going to read that?


I actually did. I think he makes excellent points, and I agree with just about everything he said. In a close election, Obama is guarenteed about 250 EV's, while a Republican is guarenteed about 150. I honestly believe the only way Obama will lose is in a landslide. If it's close, he'll probably win.
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tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #22 on: June 29, 2009, 07:55:26 pm »

Obama Is in better shape than Clinton or Bush JR were.

In 1996 Clinton lost 2 States that Perot caused him to win Colorado and Montanta.He also
lost Georgia which he barely won In 1992.He won Florida which Perot cost him In 1992.He
also won Arizona which he might have won In 1992 had Perot stayed out of the general
Election.

Bush In 2004 with a 50 percent approvol ratings lost New Hamphserie which would have gone to al Gore In 2000 If not for Ralph Nader and won Iowa and New Mexico which he
lost In 2000 due to Incresed support from Hispanic by fear tactics.

As I have said many times Obama will not win a landslide In 2012.Obama has a good shot at taking Missouri.His best approval from a Mccain state.Nader may have cost Obama Missouri In 2008.Nader got more votes here than Mccain beat Obama by.Beyond that Arizona without Mccain on the ticket could be In Play.Indiana and Noth Carolna are questions.My thinking Is If he loses one It will Indiana.NC Is more likely to stay Dem.
lol
I love it when people blame elections on 3rd party candidates.
Because look at it from the other side: Clinton caused Perot to lose Maine and Montana, as well as a couple other states. If it wasn't for Clinton, Perot could have won. If it wasn't for Bush, Perot could have won.
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tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #23 on: July 07, 2009, 09:39:07 am »

Whoa! Ohio is lower than I thought it would be, and Obama has fallen again in Rasmussen. Will more disapprove than approve by the end of the month?

Not sure what Rasmussen poll you see, but mine has Obama at 53-47.

Gallup (National):
Approve: 59%
Disapprove: 34%
Undecided: 7%
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tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #24 on: July 23, 2009, 03:56:30 pm »

According to www.realclearpolitics.com , which averages out 6 recent polls to determine President Obama's job approval, his approval rating is at it's worst, and his disapproval rating is at it's highest, going over 40% for the first time. The President's approval rating has dropped 5 points in July alone. If this rate continues (which is unlikely), Obama's approval rating will be below 50% by mid-August.
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