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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 999386 times)
Badger
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« on: May 04, 2009, 05:24:13 pm »

SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%

Let's interpret that as a "vote-over". 93% are decided, so that leaves 7% undecided. A third of the undecided don't vote for President, and of the undecided who end up voting they go 3-2 for McCain (because those voters are more likely to be Republicans):

Add 40% x 2/3 x 7% = 1.867% to Obama's 54% (55.867%)
Add 60% x 2/3 x 7% = 2.800% to McCain's 39% (41.800%)

Add the sum of their results from 100% to get a percentage of voters (97.667%)

Divide each by .97667 to reduce the number of non-voters polled, and you get:

Obama 57.20%
McCain 42.80%

2008 reality:

Obama 52.87%
McCain 45.61%

Likely effect of a vote with a 57-43 spread instead of 52-47:




That assumes that Obama gains as much in percentage in California as in Kentucky. Without such an assumption, things look very bad for the GOP in 2012.







FWIW: Doesn't GA also flip under this scenario?
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Badger
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« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2009, 07:51:56 am »

I think some of you are overestimating how "libertarian" states like Colorado and Arizona actually are...

If as the bromide goes, a conservative is a liberal who was just mugged...

a libertarian stranded in a traffic jam begins to think of the government as a possible solution.

And a liberal is a conservative who's just been downsized.
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Badger
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« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2009, 03:23:29 pm »

Alabama (Anzalone-Liszt Research (D) for Artur Davis, 600 LV, May 5-9)Sad

"58 percent of voters approve of Obama's performance, including 46 percent of white voters.  In addition, 87 percent of white Democrats and 57 percent of independents approve of Obamaís performance."

http://www.arturdavis2010.com/release_details.asp?id=65

Interesting, because the last Alabama poll by SUSA (600 adults) had Obama at only 48%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c643766a-9eb3-42a5-a1ce-38215e0aa02b


Interesting outlier.

Which one? The 48% approval rating or the 58% one? Or maybe just high end MOE combined with small actual changes in approval/disapproval?
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Badger
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« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2009, 07:32:57 am »

I love how liberals hate Reagan, but always want to compare themselves to him.

You mean the same way conservative politicians compare themselves with FDR, Truman and JFK?
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Badger
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« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2009, 12:07:55 pm »

After getting his best results in a while, Rasmussen today shows Obama with his worst approvals so far:

54% Approve
46% Disapprove

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 34% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-four percent (34%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of 0. Thatís the highest level of strong disapproval and the lowest overall rating yet recorded."



http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

These numbers don't make sense based on the state by state numbers. With Obama still getting huge approval ratings in most recent state polls, particuarly those with larger populations, all of the unpolled and not recently polled states would've had to slip to 70-80% disapproval for these national numbers to add up.

Outlier
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Badger
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« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2009, 05:41:56 pm »

I love that Obama will win VA by 10 points or more. Dude, your "system" sucks.
Uh, he won by 6.3 points only several months ago. So you're incredulous about Obama improving by at least 3.7 points nationally, let alone in one of the most aggressively Democratic shifting states?

I don't think it's his analysis that sucks here.
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Badger
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« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2009, 05:44:22 pm »

I honestly don't understand why everyone is giving pbrower such a hard time.  I don't think he ever claimed that THIS is what will happen in 2012.  His maps are clearly based on numbers and the only numbers we have right now are approval/favorability ratings.  There are of course many factors they cannot measure, but they're fun to look at.  I'm sure that if/when Obama's approval ratings drop, pbrower's map will become more red and you will all be happy.
What Blago said. I think that anyone trying to spin these ratings into anything more than an estimate of what would happen if the presidential election were held today is overacting.
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Badger
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« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2009, 05:51:25 pm »

I also much prefer polls to "extrapolations" (I'm not sure what we'd be extrapolating if not polls?).  My point is that you're comparing un-alike polls to each other, and then making a theoretical extrapolation of electoral returns based on that.  It's a perfectly fair effort if you don't want to go to the trouble of developing an algorithm to adjust for the passage of time, or a way of managing polls that ask different questions than "strongly approve"/"approve"/"somewhat approve"/whatever.  But, as it stands, this information is poisoned by a number of variables.
True, but isn't this argument just as applicable to polls taken in Oct. 2012 as those taken today? Again, I don't think PB2 is trying to predict the 2012 race so much as show where Obama's popularity is today on a state by state basis. Measuring it in terms of 2012 electoral maps makes sense only because we're such political junkies grubbing poll results to be displayed on pretty map graphics. (Nice job, BTW).
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Badger
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« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2009, 06:06:27 pm »

I love that Obama will win VA by 10 points or more. Dude, your "system" sucks.
Uh, he won by 6.3 points only several months ago. So you're incredulous about Obama improving by at least 3.7 points nationally, let alone in one of the most aggressively Democratic shifting states?

I don't think it's his analysis that sucks here.

Hmm, his approval rating there is 52%, lower than his 2008 vote total. So yeah, I have a hard time believing it.
His 2008 vote share in VA was 52.63%. Nice try.

You'll pull amuscle stretching like that.
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Badger
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« Reply #9 on: July 08, 2009, 12:29:05 pm »

Wisconsin (University of Wisconsin Badger Poll)Sad

63% Approve
32% Disapprove

http://www.uwsc.wisc.edu/BP28_PR1.pdf

New Badger poll: Approval--100%.

(Number of badgers polled: 1; MOE = +/- 5%) :-)
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Badger
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« Reply #10 on: July 09, 2009, 08:15:40 pm »

New polls today:



Obama is slipping some -- probably because he is out of the country.



Expect to see more yellow on that map within 6 to 12 months.
And a lot more green in 18 to 24...
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Badger
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« Reply #11 on: July 10, 2009, 11:30:14 am »

Obama is down to 51% in Rassy and down to  56% in the RCP average.

Don't worry, Dems, I'm sure that Obama is as invincible as you've all told us for months.

I'm not worried considering Saint Reagan was sitting at 35% in Gallup as of January 1983

Saint Reagan's won because the economy recovered in the second half of '83.  So Obama should be fine if the next election doesn't happen until 2017.
I don't see how the economy would take that long to recover when almost every group of economists has predicted the recovery to start in 2010...

The same economists who didn't see the crash coming?  The same economists who now have to admit their stimulus projections were wrong because they underestimated the recession?

No, the same economists that said that the GOP neutering of the stimulus bill would slow the recovery because Republicans underestimated the recession.

It is amazing that it took only six months for the left's argument to reach this point.

The failure of Keynesianism is evidence of the need for more Keynesianism!

Your arguments have reached the point where nothing is ever falsifiable.  If your polices fail, you can always excuse the failure by saying your policies were not sufficiently pure.  You never have to re-examine your premises or think seriously about where you went wrong, you just have to shout louder.

I will gladly take Keynesian economics over supply-side theory any day of the week. Comparing the historcial performance of each, as well as the logic behind both theories, it's clear Keynes had it right and supply side is a dismal failure.
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Badger
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« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2009, 12:03:27 pm »

It might be just noise, guys.

Nevertheless, until Obama starts becoming fiscally responsible, I can't see his approval rating going up.
It never hurt Bush much.

And at least Obama actually has a good reason for running up the deficit in the short term with  economic stimulus to combat the recession and addressing the banking/mortgage crisis (thanks again, W), as opposed to Bush's long term budgetary plan of: "raise $4 revenue and spend $5" was simply far-right ideology trumping plain arithmetic.
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Badger
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« Reply #13 on: July 27, 2009, 12:28:24 pm »
« Edited: July 27, 2009, 12:30:03 pm by Badger »

Actually the Iraq War would have went much smoother had the left not kept getting in the way of Bush's actions and constantly criticizing him.
Comedy goldmine here.
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Badger
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« Reply #14 on: August 13, 2009, 11:51:54 am »

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

54% Yes, 26% No

That's pretty embarassing considering the "Yes" is only a few points higher than the percentage that voted for him.

Don't forget than there is a part of the ''No'' who voted for Barack Obama. In the polls, there were always a part of the population who was ''I vote for Obama, but I think he is not born in America''.
Including a measurable percentage who believed he was Muslim and voted for him anyway.
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Badger
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« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2009, 07:10:56 pm »

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

54% Yes, 26% No

That's pretty embarassing considering the "Yes" is only a few points higher than the percentage that voted for him.

Don't forget than there is a part of the ''No'' who voted for Barack Obama. In the polls, there were always a part of the population who was ''I vote for Obama, but I think he is not born in America''.
Including a measurable percentage who believed he was Muslim and voted for him anyway.
Except there were almost none of these people. I'm sure in a Romney vs. Obama contest there would be a lot more birthers for Obama.
Pre-election polls showed a number of such voters IIRC
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Badger
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« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2009, 11:47:26 am »

YAWN

The state of the economy in 2012 will determine whether or not Obama is re-elected, not the health care reform debate of 2009.
True, BUT Obama's approval ratings in 2009 will effect the outcome of the 2009 health care debate, which in turn will effect the 2010 Congressional elections.
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Badger
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« Reply #17 on: August 28, 2009, 01:17:05 pm »

Jesus, this guy is dropping like a rock. I thought he would drop some, find some support for a few months, then drop some more, but instead he's just dropping like a rock. This summer has been a nightmare. The talk of sleeping giants, peaceful revolution, a grassroots movement like never before, and the depth of passion is terrifying. It certainly wasn't reflected in the polls this spring. How did we go from 60+% approval and adoring crowds to peaceful revolution, screaming and shouting in a couple months? What happened to the middle phase where people begin to express disapproval but aren't going crazy?

Where does it end? What can Obama possibly do? If this goes on for the next 3 years, Obama will be fleeing the country taking a private charter plane to France before the end of his term rather than running for re-election.

Why weren't these people more vocal back in 2007 or 2008, when Obama's health care plan was first proposed?
Relax. These same screamers and shouters were out in full crazy force at McCain/Palin rallies last fall, and again at the tea bag parties earlier this year when Obama was hovering around 60% approval. There is a substantial minority in this country utterly unreconstructed to Obama as president who are now venting their conservative spleens at town hall meetings about socialist death panels. Obama's drop is tied directly to the economy and lack of immediate progress on passing health care reform. If both continue to tank the Dems could face a wave election, but personally I suspect health care will pass this year as either a public option plan or co-ops and the economy will show signs of life by November next year (how much life is questionable, but the national mood should be at least somewhat better by then).
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Badger
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« Reply #18 on: August 28, 2009, 02:28:44 pm »

I'm going to shout "Ronald Regan" every time someone mentions his approval rating in 200-and-ing-9 as an indicator of his electoral chances in 2012. His approval will probably go under 50% - maybe even under 40%, like Reagan - but he'll bounce back.
On that very cogent note, how bad were Reagan's approval ratings when unemployment was at this level in 81 or 82?
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« Reply #19 on: August 28, 2009, 09:32:38 pm »

Why weren't these people more vocal back in 2007 or 2008, when Obama's health care plan was first proposed?

Obama had a health care plan in 2007 or 2008?  Actually, Obama has a health care plan now?  Must've missed something.

I'm not going to necessarily brag about what I've said for many years, but it is the truth and gets proven "more truthier" every day.

Health care is to the Democrats what immigration reform is to Republicans - an issue that can be campaigned on, but must never be legislated on, otherwise it ends up destroying you.

This is so mainly because the polls lie.  Everyone says they want "universal health care" but the moment when you get into the specifics as to what is required, the people (and your base) turn against it and you.
Yeah, passing and prtecting Medicare has been a pain for Democrats to run on the last 40 years.
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Badger
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« Reply #20 on: August 31, 2009, 06:22:02 pm »

Why weren't these people more vocal back in 2007 or 2008, when Obama's health care plan was first proposed?

Obama had a health care plan in 2007 or 2008?  Actually, Obama has a health care plan now?  Must've missed something.

I'm not going to necessarily brag about what I've said for many years, but it is the truth and gets proven "more truthier" every day.

Health care is to the Democrats what immigration reform is to Republicans - an issue that can be campaigned on, but must never be legislated on, otherwise it ends up destroying you.

This is so mainly because the polls lie.  Everyone says they want "universal health care" but the moment when you get into the specifics as to what is required, the people (and your base) turn against it and you.
Yeah, passing and protecting Medicare has been a pain for Democrats to run on the last 40 years.

Medicare?  You have to go back that far for a reference.  You do realize my comparison issue - immigration reform - was not really on Republican radar screens until the last 15-20 years or so.  So, my comment is really not intended to go back that far.
Alright, I'll grant you health care reform bit the Dems in the ass once about 15 years ago. Not much of a harbinger compared to the decades they've had to run as the protector of medicare and medicaid.
Also, the comment refers to passing legislation, not protecting or whatever euphemistic term you want to come up with.  Which reminds me, the present legislation in front of Congress does not protect Medicare one bit.  Go read it.
So how does the proposed legislation actually threaten Medicare?
Btw, if we're going to get real technical about it, LBJ signed Medicare into law in 1965.  And then examine how Democrats performed in the 1966 or 1968 or 1970 or 1972 elections.  Not that it was about Medicare, That, is just a tad bit an understatement. but I'm really growing tired of the stupidity around here. Yep.
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Badger
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« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2009, 11:59:15 am »

Colorado speaks!



Translated into a likely electoral result:


Modified CO to tossup. You can't predit anything yet, 3 years to go.
Really, people. Do we need to remind ourselves in every 5th post for this thread that 2012 is a long way off, etc. etc.? (This is by no means just aimed at you Magnetic Free--there are MANY here who persist in this habit). Like I've said before let us political junkies just enjoy PB's maps as a snapshot of what an election against a generic Republican would look like if held today and please limit reiterating the obvious and redundant point about how much could change in the next 3 years (or even till November next year).
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Badger
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« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2009, 12:03:21 pm »

Why are people always pissing on Pbrower2a? As i understand it, he's not claiming that Obama will win this type of electoral victory in 2012, he just makes maps that take into account the polling data of today and then makes a projection of how it can be in 2012 if everything stays like it is today.
Things will stay like today? not likely. Is this unnecessary? You could say so. A bit dense? definitely. But apart from that i don't see anything wrong with what he's doing with the maps.

Even in his last post he said "I do not claim that either will happen"

Of course i could be mistaken Tongue but I've seen no indication that this guy thinks that the data for today will be exactly what will happen in 2012
Because he is a Democratic hack, and always rambles on about how the "Age Wave" will cause Obama to easily win re-election, even though little polling has been done on these new voters. It's an assumption that the youth will like our black president.

Well, they certainly did a year ago.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/04/exit.polls/
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Badger
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« Reply #23 on: September 18, 2009, 04:46:20 pm »

Well for one thing, New Jersey is not a tossup.

Neither is Wisconsin or Iowa.
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Badger
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« Reply #24 on: September 19, 2009, 08:26:12 pm »

VOTER REGISTRATION-RELATED FIGHT!!!!  VOTER REGISTRATION-RELATED FIGHT!!!!
Damn, Alcon! You almost made me pee myself laughing.
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