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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1002472 times)
Devilman88
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Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« on: April 25, 2009, 12:57:07 pm »

Polls are meanless, why are you guys making them out to be bigger then they are?
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Devilman88
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Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2009, 08:16:39 pm »

Latest update:



The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

North Carolina looks so pro-Obama.
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Devilman88
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Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2009, 01:50:35 pm »

PPP NC Poll

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 51%
Disapprove...................................................... 41%
Not Sure.......................................................... 8%
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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2009, 12:45:24 pm »


Maybe they mixed the numbers up...
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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2009, 06:52:59 pm »


They changed it. It was 44/55, I guess Rasmussen changed the numbers.
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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2009, 09:36:45 pm »

Updated map:



66% Minnesota, 55% Nevada... eleven states outstanding.

Mississippi anyone? North Dakota? Montana?

Colorado or Arizona again?

NC should be 50%
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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2009, 09:36:46 pm »

OBAMA IS NOT WINNING UTAH UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. NONE. ZILCH.
Disagree
If Huckabee is the nominee, it will be close. If Obama's approval ratings are above 60%, and Huckabee is the Republican nominee, Obama will carry the state. Romney would barely get 60% under that scenario.

I'm sorry but you are wrong, dead wrong. Please try again.
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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2009, 11:04:40 pm »

OBAMA IS NOT WINNING UTAH UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. NONE. ZILCH.
Disagree
If Huckabee is the nominee, it will be close. If Obama's approval ratings are above 60%, and Huckabee is the Republican nominee, Obama will carry the state. Romney would barely get 60% under that scenario.

I'm sorry but you are wrong, dead wrong. Please try again.

I'm dead right. Mormons hate Huckabee. Many will stay home on election day. The whole southwest is trending Democrat. A strong Obama term + Huckabee as the Republican nominee = Utah going Democrat

Dude, your hate for Huckabee is blinding your judgement. Also you don't speak for mormons, you just speak for yourself. The fact is Huckabee would kill Obama in Utah and thats the bottom line.
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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2009, 04:04:12 pm »

My point exactly. We could use another Josh22 though.

What's your point?
The only reason I was so conservative when I got on here was because I've been brainwashed by my Dad for the past 15 years of my life. He thinks Democrats had planned on Gore winning in 2000, and had already paid terrorists to bomb the World Trade Centers so Democrats would look strong on National Security. Thanks to some people on here, I've becomed more open-minded, and have reversed my position on some key issues.

"People who will not stand for something will fall for anything."
You should have an open mind about things, but don't ever let them change your views, if you truly believe in them views you (had)have.
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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #9 on: May 23, 2009, 10:45:11 pm »

I'm pretty sure those who think Obama has no chance in Utah thought the same thing about Indiana last year...

Well, probably.  If they didn't think Obama would win in Indiana, then why would they suddenly give him a chance in Utah?

Obama wins Utah only in the best of scenarios.  Huge economic recovery, a new era of good feelings, and only against Mike Huckabee (this is why Huckabee must not get the nomination).  If the economy hasn't recovered, no way in hell Utah goes for Obama, or most other states for that matter.

What I find interesting is that people give Obama a chance in Utah but they refuse to consider the possibility of a Republican winning in Massachusetts, Illinois, or California (which Obama won by around the same percentage that McCain won Utah).  It's like they think that Obama is guaranteed re-election based on his approvals four months into his term.  ing incredible. 

That is because we are talking about Obama here. Didn't you get the memo, Obama is god and can do anything. Roll Eyes
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Devilman88
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Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2009, 04:42:10 pm »
« Edited: May 27, 2009, 08:14:21 am by ♠♣♦Dan♦♣♠ »

I went back and will show the trends month by month of Obama's approval ratings. (Green approve, Blue Disapprove)

January 09





February 09





March 09




April 09





May 09 (So far)

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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2009, 05:54:28 pm »

pbrower2a, approval ratings doesn't mean votes. Get that, and stop trying to say because someone approves of Obama they will vote for him.
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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2009, 06:23:59 pm »

pbrower2a, approval ratings doesn't mean votes. Get that, and stop trying to say because someone approves of Obama they will vote for him.

On the other hand, of course, disapproval ratings don't necessarily mean votes against. In 2004, 9% of those who approved of Bush voted for Kerry, while 6% of those who didn't voted for Bush

You are right, you can't us approval ratings to see if someone will win a state.
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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2009, 11:44:50 am »

Obama's approval ratings in November 2012 will determine whether he wins or loses.

Wrong.  Approval ratings have no direct relationship with the percentage of the vote a candidate gets.  This is completely different than predicting baseball because there are no absolute precedents, just relative precedents.  In politics there is no such thing as definite causation.  You can never predict the future in politics because even if you were to somehow know what Obama is going to do and how people have reacted to that in the past, it will never be the same as anything that has happened.  There are too many variables.  That's why peoples' predictions on election day are sometimes wildly off.  Predicting now, especially based on approval ratings, is the most asinine and ridiculous notion in politics.  There is no other reason but hackery to seriously suggest that Obama will win West Virginia, Kentucky, and Louisiana.

I agree, but he doesn't see it that way.
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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2009, 11:58:42 am »

Obama's approval ratings in November 2012 will determine whether he wins or loses.

Wrong.  Approval ratings have no direct relationship with the percentage of the vote a candidate gets.  This is completely different than predicting baseball because there are no absolute precedents, just relative precedents.  In politics there is no such thing as definite causation.  You can never predict the future in politics because even if you were to somehow know what Obama is going to do and how people have reacted to that in the past, it will never be the same as anything that has happened.  There are too many variables.  That's why peoples' predictions on election day are sometimes wildly off.  Predicting now, especially based on approval ratings, is the most asinine and ridiculous notion in politics.  There is no other reason but hackery to seriously suggest that Obama will win West Virginia, Kentucky, and Louisiana.

I have shown their limitations in my response -- and I have stated that anything can change. Some changes are more likely than others.

I have explained West Virginia, where Obama now has an approval rating around 60%. Do you argue with that rating?

If anything, my model suggests that the GOP has more chance of getting  trounced in the 2012 Presidential race than of winning, and that should be a fair warning: expend efforts elsewhere, especially in grass-roots efforts to win city council seats and county-wide elections -- and of course to distance itself as much as possible from ideological stances no longer popular and no longer achievable. 

That WV poll was taking right after Obama took office. You are just a Democratic hack who twist thing to make Obama look better. Next you will be saying Obama will become King and take over the world.
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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #15 on: May 31, 2009, 01:11:49 pm »

I went back and will show the trends month by month of Obama's approval ratings. (Green approve, Blue Disapprove)

January 09





February 09





March 09




April 09





May 09


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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #16 on: June 01, 2009, 01:13:47 pm »

WV: PPP poll

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve ................. 39%
Disapprove............. 50%
Not Sure................. 10%
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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #17 on: June 01, 2009, 01:15:21 pm »

I went back and will show the trends month by month of Obama's approval ratings. (Green approve, Blue Disapprove)

January 09





February 09





March 09




April 09





May 09



June 09(So far)

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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #18 on: June 01, 2009, 01:31:51 pm »

The most recent poll for Alabama shows a 58% approval rating. That may be counter-intuitive.



Link?
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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #19 on: June 01, 2009, 01:55:46 pm »

The most recent poll for Alabama shows a 58% approval rating. That may be counter-intuitive.



Link?
Can't seem to find a poll like that. There was a poll with Obama at 60% approval of Alabama once, but that was right around inauguration day. The newest poll I found was 48% app, 49% disapproval, which I figure is probably the one actually shown in your map.

Yep.
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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #20 on: June 01, 2009, 02:56:13 pm »

Here is the poll, like it or not. I am not familiar with the polling agency, but until someone discredits it I go with it, just as I go with some polls that suggest that Colorado is weak in support for Obama:

Alabama (Anzalone-Liszt Research (D) for Artur Davis, 600 LV, May 5-9)Sad

"58 percent of voters approve of Obama's performance, including 46 percent of white voters.  In addition, 87 percent of white Democrats and 57 percent of independents approve of Obama’s performance."

http://www.arturdavis2010.com/release_details.asp?id=65

Interesting, because the last Alabama poll by SUSA (600 adults) had Obama at only 48%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c643766a-9eb3-42a5-a1ce-38215e0aa02b

It's almost a month old, but one poll a month from Alabama is about the most that anyone can expect.

Artur Davis is running for a Congressional seat in 2010 as a Democrat.

That is a campagin run poll, most people don't really look at them.
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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #21 on: June 10, 2009, 10:24:46 am »

Current prediction -- for now. Alabama is definitely not a tossup.




Key:

GOP wins by 10% or more
GOP wins 5-9%
GOP wins up to 5%
tossup
Obama wins up to 5%
Obama wins 5-9%
Obama wins 10% or more


Much depends, of course, on who the GOP nominee will be.

OMG, I hope you really don't believe that. If you do go ahead and change your name to #1ObamaHack.
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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #22 on: June 10, 2009, 10:48:25 am »

Current prediction -- for now. Alabama is definitely not a tossup.




Key:

GOP wins by 10% or more
GOP wins 5-9%
GOP wins up to 5%
tossup
Obama wins up to 5%
Obama wins 5-9%
Obama wins 10% or more


Much depends, of course, on who the GOP nominee will be.

OMG, I hope you really don't believe that. If you do go ahead and change your name to #1ObamaHack.

NC and IN before CO is laughable enough.

LA, AR, NE, TN, ND, SD, KY and WV are all laughable too.
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Devilman88
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Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #23 on: June 10, 2009, 11:30:58 am »

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Yes, but what does that have to do about 2012?

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Wrong, the economic woes are now on Obama, after the first 100 days it became Obama's woes. Also, the economy was find until 2007 when Democrats took over.

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Wrong, McCain just has that appeal, which has nothing to do with war record.

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You can't base how states will vote on approval polls. You are just trying to twist it to make it look like Obama is going to win states he will never win.

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It isn't stable, his popularity is slowing falling.

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You are using polls that were taken right after Obama won. Like in WV, last poll showed Obama with a 36% approval rating, but you don't have that on there.

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Not really, it only seemed to weakening because Obama won by 7%, due to the economy being blamed on the Republican, which is not true, but most Americans are to stupid to know the real truth.
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Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

« Reply #24 on: June 10, 2009, 04:09:01 pm »

WV: PPP poll

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve ................. 39%
Disapprove............. 50%
Not Sure................. 10%
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