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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1002535 times)
Vepres
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« on: May 14, 2009, 08:15:58 pm »

Latest update:



The slight negative approval difference in Arizona looks specious, but who am I to argue?

North Carolina looks so pro-Obama.

...and Arizona looks way too anti-Obama. Sometimes polls are wrong.

Perhaps, but the Phoenix metropolitan area is more conservative than say Denver or Las Vegas. Also, could there be some bitterness among Republican and Independent Arizonans over their favorite son's loss in the election?
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Vepres
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« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2009, 07:21:50 pm »

Updated map:



66% Minnesota, 55% Nevada... eleven states outstanding.

Mississippi anyone? North Dakota? Montana?

Colorado or Arizona again?

Very interesting. I wonder if Colorado and Arizona are outliers, or if the mountain west libertarianism is starting to show itself. I really didn't expect him to have low approvals out here this early, but if these polls aren't outliers, I can see why.
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Vepres
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« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2009, 10:50:33 pm »

I think some of you are overestimating how "libertarian" states like Colorado and Arizona actually are...

I consider myself a moderate libertarian, and many independents and Republicans I meet out here (Denver and Boulder regions) have a libertarian streak. Maybe not as extreme as the libertarian party itself, or even myself, but still undeniably libertarian leaning. The thing is, liberals in my area of the state are very liberal, which overwhelms the libertarian vote. However, if these approval ratings prove accurate, than I would be tempted to say that small government, state's rights voters are the reason for it (these people voted for Obama because they no longer trusted the Republican party).
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Vepres
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« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2009, 11:08:03 pm »

OBAMA IS NOT WINNING UTAH UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. NONE. ZILCH.
Disagree
If Huckabee is the nominee, it will be close. If Obama's approval ratings are above 60%, and Huckabee is the Republican nominee, Obama will carry the state. Romney would barely get 60% under that scenario.

I'm sorry but you are wrong, dead wrong. Please try again.

I'm dead right. Mormons hate Huckabee. Many will stay home on election day. The whole southwest is trending Democrat. A strong Obama term + Huckabee as the Republican nominee = Utah going Democrat

That may be what my map indicates.  Who runs shapes the voting of individual states, if not regional blocks. I can imagine Utah voters voting for Obama as a protest against someone disrespectful of the LDS Church or the sensibilities of LDS members. Could an active alcoholic  win Utah as a Republican? I think not. Could a serial spouse-cheater win in Utah? Perhaps not. Someone nutty? Utah rejected Goldwater.

Utah is not a difficult state in which to campaign; if it had any chance of voting Democratic in 2008, then Obama's style of campaign would be well suited to the state and he would have been there often. Obama loves publicity and large crowds more easily obtained in big cities and their suburbs than in isolated rural areas.  Utah is easy to get to and get around -- at least between Logan and Provo, an area that contains about 90% of the population. The Salt Lake City television market covers practically the entire state through feeds throughout the state. Obama could make a speech or two supporting religious tolerance while praising Mormon community (they take care of themselves) in Salt Lake City, Ogden, and Provo.

That hardly indicates that Utah becomes a Democratic haven -- far from it. It could be a one-time event. But it does put forth a warning to candidates of all political types: if you want Utah to vote for you, then at the least respect the LDS Church and community or expect to lose Utah!

Indeed. The question is, would Mormons vote for a pro-life, anti-gay marriage candidate who criticized the Mormon church and community, or a pro-choice, pro-civil unions candidate who respects the community? This is not one I can answer, though Mormons seem to have a strong loyalty with the Republican party.
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Vepres
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« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2009, 11:39:50 am »

I was referring to states Obama didn't win already. I also doubt Obama can do much better in Georgia, he maxed out the black vote, and still lost by 5 points.

If he does two points better nationally then why can't he take Georgia?
Also, in four years blacks and Hispanics will be an even bigger part of the electorate in the state.
And old time segragationists will be even less. 

Yes, but I think that IF the GOP turns down the anti-immigrant rhetoric (which they appear to have been doing, but we'll see when the President tackles immigrant reform) Hispanics will vote for the Republicans in much the same way they did for Bush in 2004. As for blacks, their turnout will likely be down, and I could see about 5% or so defecting towards Republicans now that we have a black president (typically, 10% vote Republican, not 3%). So that would balance out the lessening of the racist vote.


Pray tell what "southern" state would Romney lose. McCain wasn't exactly southern himself.

Virginia (which might not be particularly Southern anymore, but it would be enough)
Florida
North Carolina
Georgia (heavy military presence helped McCain as it won't help Romney)

So far I can't see Obama losing Virginia to any imaginable GOP candidate in 2012 except in the aftermath of political disaster, category self-inflicted.

.... Anything else beyond those indicates a landslide.

I see no indication that Romney can win as much of the poor white vote as did McCain -- a large vote in the South, and one critical to GOP success in recent years. Romney is just as much a d@mnyankee as Obama, but in 2012 Obama will be the d@mnyankee that they know. Besides, if Obama does good for poor Southern blacks, he will also do good for poor Southern whites.  He will be running for re-election as President -- not to be some white person's in-law.

Mitt Romney will have to explain his religion; Joe Lieberman had to do that, too, and that didn't help Gore in 2000. Mormonism is about as exotic in the South as is Judaism.

I think they will warm up to the Mormonism as the campaign goes on. I think Romney could win all of those, though I think he will have the hardest time in North Carolina. He may do better in Virginia than North Carolina, though I think he would win or lose them together.
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Vepres
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« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2009, 03:39:31 pm »

Obama support down to 62% in Pennsylvania:




Hmm... I find it surprising there is no poll of Montana yet considering how close the results there were.
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Vepres
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« Reply #6 on: May 30, 2009, 09:09:10 am »

Just like Carter!  Good path to be following. Wink

And even is he is like Carter (which I doubt), the Republicans have nobody like Reagan for '12.

They just don't have ...

My dog could've beaten Carter, easily (and he's not the brightest dog either).
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Vepres
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« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2009, 02:45:51 pm »

Two polls for NJ today, 59% and 60% approval:



It would be interesting to see some more polls for Southern states.

Arizona is bizarre. Was the poll an outlier? Is the abnormally conservative Phoenix the reason? Or is there bitterness over McCain's defeat?

Another surprise is Colorado. As a resident, I can see Obama having these approvals, but I don't think it's likely.
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Vepres
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« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2009, 11:12:06 pm »

Two polls for NJ today, 59% and 60% approval:


And people think Obama can win over Arizona in 2012 and hold onto Colorado?  Doubt that, I think Obama will flip Missouri and South Dakota before the other two according to the polls.

Yeah, I think you can agree as a fellow resident that the mountain west has an aversion to big government. However, I think if the GOP nominates, say, Huckabee, Obama will still win Colorado and Arizona. However, a candidate popular in the west like Romney or Huntsman could keep these states.
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Vepres
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« Reply #9 on: June 08, 2009, 08:37:23 pm »

Marist

Approve 56%
Disapprove 32%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/majority-lauds-obamas-overall-job-performance/

"However, fervor among younger voters has died down.  In those previous polls, 18 to 29 year olds tipped the scales toward the president’s positive approval ratings with his rating among this group in the seventies.  The current proportion of voters within this age group who approve of President Obama’s performance — 61% — is just slightly higher than registered voters in general."

Just as I have been predicting. Once the overly idealistic youth sees that Obama's big government policies won't work, and the Obama loses his novelty, they will start to defect from him.
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Vepres
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« Reply #10 on: June 09, 2009, 03:32:18 pm »

Marist

Approve 56%
Disapprove 32%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/majority-lauds-obamas-overall-job-performance/

"However, fervor among younger voters has died down.  In those previous polls, 18 to 29 year olds tipped the scales toward the president’s positive approval ratings with his rating among this group in the seventies.  The current proportion of voters within this age group who approve of President Obama’s performance — 61% — is just slightly higher than registered voters in general."

Just as I have been predicting. Once the overly idealistic youth sees that Obama's big government policies won't work, and the Obama loses his novelty, they will start to defect from him.

Yeah, I'm sure the Chrysler bailout killed him among youngsters. Roll Eyes

No, but if/when healthcare reform fails, and the national debt continues to rise, trust me, they'll defect. As a younger person myself, I can safely say most of the 14-17 year olds (future voters) don't really know what's going on and only support Obama because it's cool. These people will only have become politically aware in a world where Democrats control everything.

You can quote me on this, Obama will still win the youth in 2012 for sure (unless he's an epic failure), but the margin of victory relative to the national PV will be far lower.

The down turn in these polls probably has less to do with policy and more to do with the novelty of Obama waring off and reality setting in.
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Vepres
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« Reply #11 on: June 09, 2009, 04:19:34 pm »

Current prediction -- for now. Alabama is definitely not a tossup.




Key:

GOP wins by 10% or more
GOP wins 5-9%
GOP wins up to 5%
tossup
Obama wins up to 5%
Obama wins 5-9%
Obama wins 10% or more


Much depends, of course, on who the GOP nominee will be.

I still find it incredible that Obama has higher approvals in Tennessee than Colorado or Arizona.

By the way, what is your methodology. Do you take into account Obama's margin of victory in 2008?
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Vepres
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« Reply #12 on: June 10, 2009, 06:27:58 pm »






Key:

GOP wins by 10% or more
GOP wins 5-9%
GOP wins up to 5%
tossup
Obama wins up to 5%
Obama wins 5-9%
Obama wins 10% or more


See? The system works. Even if I split the "not sure" 50/50 (which may be charitable for Obama), WV is on the line between "medium" and "hard". In the event of a tossup between such categories I use the 2008 vote to decide -- and it decides that Obama would lose by at least 10% in West Virginia. 

Now that I think of it, that criterion allows me to distinguish Nebraska as a likely win for the GOP nominee and Colorado as a likely win, however marginal, for Obama.

I fixed it, gave Colorado 10 electoral votes. 

With an approval rating that Obama has in CO, I would clearly make Colorado as tossup or even 5% for the GOP.  His popularity is not going to last forever in CO.  Another reason is people are already getting sick of the democrat governor that we have and his job approval.


Since when did Colorado have 10 EVs? If you mean in 2012, I'm not sure it will gain any then.
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Vepres
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« Reply #13 on: June 10, 2009, 06:47:32 pm »

I honestly don't understand why everyone is giving pbrower such a hard time.  I don't think he ever claimed that THIS is what will happen in 2012.  His maps are clearly based on numbers and the only numbers we have right now are approval/favorability ratings.  There are of course many factors they cannot measure, but they're fun to look at.  I'm sure that if/when Obama's approval ratings drop, pbrower's map will become more red and you will all be happy.

I qualify my statements, and I show my methods. I suggest my prediction as "likely results if nothing really changes". Much WILL change by November 2012 -- most particularly that we will have no "Generic Republican" nominated for President.

This model does not allow someone to say such things as "when Oregonians get tired of high taxes or when the auto industry blows up on Obama, then Oregon, Michigan, and Ohio will be easy pickings for any Republican" before such happens. Likewise it does not allow one to say that  "when poor whites and poor blacks recognize shared interests in economics, then they will vote alike -- for Obama".  If "tax revolts" become successful in some states  in the so-called Blue Firewall or if the American auto industry implodes, then Obama will be in political trouble, as shown in Obama having approval ratings in the forties or thirties in such states. Likewise if white poor people and black poor people in the South find common cause in struggles against shared exploiters and oppressors, Obama could win a raft of states that he didn't win in 2008, and that would show in approval ratings in the sixties or higher.

My map is modeled, such as it is, on models not in use (Electoralvote.com, 538.com, 270 to win) since the 2008 election. I respect those models. Am I completely justified in assuming that a 52% approval rating suggests a likely win? Hardly. People who approve of an incumbent President are likely to vote for him; those who don't generally vote for someone else. That's before I can account for the personality of someone who will comprise half the attention of the Presidential campaign of 2012 -- the Republican half.  

Not until we have specific polls involving specific candidates in specific states will we have a really good idea of how Election 2012 will be going. We will have heard the rhetoric at the Democratic and Republican national conventions. We will see the campaign ads.

My system lets nobody count chickens before they hatch; it shows where the eggs are and it might not even be able to tell whether the eggs are from hens or from snakes. They can show statewide trends (in case anyone still needs to be educated on this matter, the States decide who becomes or remains President, and voters don't).

Let me just add that this is if the election were today against a generic Republican. Neither is going to happen. Likely, the Republicans will nominate somebody significantly better or significantly worse than a "generic Republican".

Also remember that Obama hasn't tackled large divisive issues yet such as healthcare, immigration reform, and cap-and-trade. Thus, the majority of moderates (~40% of the population) combined with the majority of liberals (~25% of the population) make up his approvals. Until he does something that will alienate independents and moderate Republicans and Democrats, expect his approvals to remain in the upper fifties. Thus making the map much more Democratic than it will most likely be on election day.
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Vepres
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« Reply #14 on: June 15, 2009, 04:43:09 pm »

Remember, if the election were held today against a generic Republican with almost no campaigning from either side, this would be the result. The interesting thing will be to see the trends from now to November 2012.
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Vepres
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« Reply #15 on: June 18, 2009, 04:19:16 pm »

Views of the budget deficit:

41% say the government should spend money to stimulate the economy, even if it means increasing the deficit; 54% say the government should not spend money to stimulate the economy and should instead focus on reducing the deficit

Yet again the American public shows it doesn't know what the f**k it's talking about.

The craziest part is the same poll showed approval of Obama's handling of the economy 57% to 35%.  But not for how he's handling it?  Hard to understand the contradiction.  Maybe people felt now that we've spent enough, we should hold off?  Or just people want no deficit, no taxes, and things that cost a lot of money.


Perhaps they like what he's done thus far, but want him to moderate now that the immediate crisis is over.
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Vepres
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« Reply #16 on: June 19, 2009, 04:34:18 pm »

I'm still somewhat surprised by Obama's approvals in Colorado and Arizona.

I will be very interested in a Montana poll, they don't seem to like government spending there.
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Vepres
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« Reply #17 on: June 21, 2009, 05:44:59 pm »

PPP North Carolina
Approve 50%
Disapprove 43%

That's about right. Obama won NC with a margin of -7 the national popular vote. His approvals hover around 57% at the moment.
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Vepres
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« Reply #18 on: June 21, 2009, 06:48:05 pm »


There hasn't really been an economic recovery yet, but I'd guess that there's a VERY strong chance that the economy will rebound in the next few years before 2012, enough to boost Obama's approval ratings no matter what they are (could be 20% or 80%).

Who the hell cares about 2012?  Democrats need to be worried about 2010 right now. 

Yeah, I actually find it doubtful we'll make gains. But, look at '94, Republican landslide and Dole did terrible in '96. The midterms are a good guide, not always though. If we do well in 2010, it'll be because of Republican failings, not our success.

Clinton beat Dole because he basically became a Republican, abandoning healthcare reform, and signing Welfare Reform and deregulation.  A Republican landslide in 2010 would likely wipe Democrats out of Congress for at least another 12 years. 

Then everybody would talk about how the Democratic party is dead, and how they've lost touch with America, blah, blah, blah.

Anyway, Republicans will make gains in 2010, but they will be hard pressed to take back either house of congress.
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Vepres
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« Reply #19 on: June 22, 2009, 02:08:20 pm »

Nevada (Mason-Dixon)Sad

47% Excellent/Good (25% Excellent, 22% Good)
50% Fair/Poor (25% Fair, 25% Poor)

49% Favorable
32% Unfavorable
19% Neutral

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C., from June 18 through June 19, 2009. A total of 625 registered Nevada voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/june_2009_polls.html

It looks like the Mountain West states are now 50\50 on Obama, after voting for him decisively in the election. I saw a poll from New Mexico where his numbers were barely 50\50. Colorado approves of him, but not very strongly.

Can anyone explain this? My guess is that the libertarians in these states may have supported Obama on election day, but they don't support him anymore.

State's rights and the budget deficit are big issues out here (relatively speaking). Obama appeared to be a moderate who would cut wasteful spending, be pragmatic and work with Republicans. The stimulus, which many people out here opposed, didn't help either. And, at least in Colorado's case, there are many independents, and Obama's approvals have been slowly declining with them.

I would be interested to see Obama's approvals amongst Latinos, because they are a crucial demographic out west (and in Florida of course).
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Vepres
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« Reply #20 on: June 29, 2009, 05:56:57 pm »

But he continues to make the same assumption that states that give Obama a net approval will ultimately vote for him. Candidates have lost states even if the state approves of their job. The most recent example was Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island, who lost reelection despite having something like a 66% approval rating.

Just because Utah gives Obama a net positive approval rating does in no way mean he will win the state, or make it close.

QFT
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Vepres
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« Reply #21 on: June 29, 2009, 07:46:58 pm »

Obama Is in better shape than Clinton or Bush JR were.

In 1996 Clinton lost 2 States that Perot caused him to win Colorado and Montanta.He also
lost Georgia which he barely won In 1992.He won Florida which Perot cost him In 1992.He
also won Arizona which he might have won In 1992 had Perot stayed out of the general
Election.

Bush In 2004 with a 50 percent approvol ratings lost New Hamphserie which would have gone to al Gore In 2000 If not for Ralph Nader and won Iowa and New Mexico which he
lost In 2000 due to Incresed support from Hispanic by fear tactics.

As I have said many times Obama will not win a landslide In 2012.Obama has a good shot at taking Missouri.His best approval from a Mccain state.Nader may have cost Obama Missouri In 2008.Nader got more votes here than Mccain beat Obama by.Beyond that Arizona without Mccain on the ticket could be In Play.Indiana and Noth Carolna are questions.My thinking Is If he loses one It will Indiana.NC Is more likely to stay Dem.

You know who had approvals higher than Obama's at this point... Jimmy Carter.

Yeah, he really won his reelection in a landslide didn't he. Roll Eyes
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Vepres
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« Reply #22 on: June 30, 2009, 10:30:26 am »

Republicans have been saying for years Perot caused Clinton's election.You have to acknoldge third party candiates cost candiates from major party states In General Election.

Keep bringing up Carter.Obama Is not Carter.A better candiate than Carter ever was.And
better President.Clinton and Bush won reelection.Although with Bush It was more an election after the supreme court stopped the recount.

On this forum I repersente the Democrats where most others are against him on this forum.I will be for Obama while many others here are for romney.

At this point in his Presidency, you would've said Carter was a great candidate and leader.

Clinton won reelection because he moved to the middle. Bush won because his opponent sucked.

Obama has some problems:

1. The chance that healthcare could fail. He and other Democrats have made this their central domestic issue. So if it fails, there will be a much greater impact than in 1992.

2. The media, which so far has been pretty nice to Obama, is starting to actually do its job and be critical. If you saw Obama's latest press conference, he seemed frustrated and dismissive towards reporters who asked hard questions.

3. All this spending could cause massive inflation in the future.

4. So far, the stimulus doesn't seem to have slowed the job loss rate. If this continues he's in big trouble.

5. He isn't being bipartisan like he said.
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Vepres
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« Reply #23 on: July 04, 2009, 11:56:25 am »

The Canadian poll makes sense. Obama has had a stellar foreign policy thus far, and that's what people in other countries care about.
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Vepres
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« Reply #24 on: July 07, 2009, 04:55:52 pm »

I bet a lot of these "Democrats" they survey don't turn out in elections, so their opinion means very little. They're probably overestimating his support. This seems to be the trend, Democrats' numbers are overestimated because many "Democrats" don't care very much and thus don't vote.
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