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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1015084 times)
5280
MagneticFree
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Posts: 3,398
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Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« on: June 04, 2009, 09:53:25 pm »

Two polls for NJ today, 59% and 60% approval:


And people think Obama can win over Arizona in 2012 and hold onto Colorado?  Doubt that, I think Obama will flip Missouri and South Dakota before the other two according to the polls.
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #1 on: June 04, 2009, 11:21:19 pm »

Don't get me wrong, I think Huckabee would be a good candidate, but I still prefer Romney to run in 2012 against Obama.  Only one can hope for that to happen, still too early to predict.
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2009, 05:04:41 pm »
« Edited: June 10, 2009, 05:15:44 pm by MagneticFree »






Key:

GOP wins by 10% or more
GOP wins 5-9%
GOP wins up to 5%
tossup
Obama wins up to 5%
Obama wins 5-9%
Obama wins 10% or more


See? The system works. Even if I split the "not sure" 50/50 (which may be charitable for Obama), WV is on the line between "medium" and "hard". In the event of a tossup between such categories I use the 2008 vote to decide -- and it decides that Obama would lose by at least 10% in West Virginia. 

Now that I think of it, that criterion allows me to distinguish Nebraska as a likely win for the GOP nominee and Colorado as a likely win, however marginal, for Obama.

I fixed it, gave Colorado 10 electoral votes. 

With an approval rating that Obama has in CO, I would clearly make Colorado as tossup or even 5% for the GOP.  His popularity is not going to last forever in CO.  Another reason is people are already getting sick of the democrat governor that we have and his job approval.
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2009, 10:03:46 pm »






Key:

GOP wins by 10% or more
GOP wins 5-9%
GOP wins up to 5%
tossup
Obama wins up to 5%
Obama wins 5-9%
Obama wins 10% or more


See? The system works. Even if I split the "not sure" 50/50 (which may be charitable for Obama), WV is on the line between "medium" and "hard". In the event of a tossup between such categories I use the 2008 vote to decide -- and it decides that Obama would lose by at least 10% in West Virginia. 

Now that I think of it, that criterion allows me to distinguish Nebraska as a likely win for the GOP nominee and Colorado as a likely win, however marginal, for Obama.

I fixed it, gave Colorado 10 electoral votes. 

With an approval rating that Obama has in CO, I would clearly make Colorado as tossup or even 5% for the GOP.  His popularity is not going to last forever in CO.  Another reason is people are already getting sick of the democrat governor that we have and his job approval.


Since when did Colorado have 10 EVs? If you mean in 2012, I'm not sure it will gain any then.
That is for 2012, Colorado should have 10 electroal votes by then or maybe 11, who knows for sure.
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #4 on: June 10, 2009, 11:04:32 pm »

Doesn't make much sense.  Georgia and South Carolina should be pink then.
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2009, 06:02:57 pm »

Do you think ND, SD, MT, CO will lean GOP anytime soon?
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #6 on: June 19, 2009, 05:39:57 pm »

I'm still somewhat surprised by Obama's approvals in Colorado and Arizona.

I will be very interested in a Montana poll, they don't seem to like government spending there.
You would expect Obama is god in Colorado, but that's not the case.  I can't wait to see what the map looks like when all the polls are in.
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #7 on: June 23, 2009, 11:39:22 pm »

I didn't vote for Obama, and will never vote for him.  Romney better make it past primaries!
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #8 on: June 23, 2009, 11:56:27 pm »

I didn't vote for Obama, and will never vote for him.  Romney better make it past primaries!

I voted twice for Obama, and will vote for him again. Romney better make it past primaries! Smiley
uhhh, ok...
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2009, 08:05:39 am »

Look at all that yellow, it looks beautiful! LOL
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2009, 09:11:16 pm »
« Edited: June 24, 2009, 09:23:26 pm by MagneticFree »



New polls, some weird.



Go figure. Who is the Texas Lyceum? How could anyone poll a 68% approval rating for Obama in Texas when he slips below 50% in Florida?   


According to Obama's approval ratings map, this is the 2012 election map I came up with an average Republican opponent.  It's only speculation.

The closer to dark green, Obama wins that state.  Light green and yellow, Republicans win that.
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2009, 12:46:17 am »




Current projection, and oh can it change!


Why is Montana pink along with the Dakota's?  Montana hasn't been polled yet neither has ND.
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #12 on: June 29, 2009, 06:28:28 pm »
« Edited: June 29, 2009, 06:32:22 pm by MagneticFree »



New polls, some weird.



Go figure. Who is the Texas Lyceum? How could anyone poll a 68% approval rating for Obama in Texas when he slips below 50% in Florida?   


According to Obama's approval ratings map, this is the 2012 election map I came up with an average Republican opponent.  It's only speculation.

The closer to dark green, Obama wins that state.  Light green and yellow, Republicans win that.

You have to admit, this map is pretty fair according to the polls.
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #13 on: June 29, 2009, 07:10:23 pm »

Here's what I think will happen:




Strong Republican win (10% +)
Weak  Republican win (5-9.9%)
Bare    Republican win (under 5%)
No tossups shown
Bare    Obama win  (under 5%)
Weak  Obama win  (5-9.9%)
Strong Obama win  (10% +)


This is a cautious prediction based on assumptions that:

1. Demographic change will be enough to flip Missouri and solidify Obama 's 2008 wins in Indiana and North Carolina

2. Obama maxed out support in Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina in 2008 -- and really, the Blue Firewall.

3. The absence of a candidate from Arizona takes away the Favorite Son effect

4. Obama makes gains in the South and Plains, but not enough to win anything other than Missouri.

5. Obama meets expectations of most who voted for him but doesn't convince enough of those who voted against him to change their minds enough to flip any state, except in Arizona (again, no Favorite Son effect will be active there) .

6. The GOP nominee has no unusual weaknesses in any region that Obama lost. 


I think Colorado will flip to Romeny if he runs.  If Obama doesn't stay away from being a far left radical, then Arizona will stay blue.  Nevada, keep as toss-up.
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #14 on: June 29, 2009, 08:45:27 pm »

Republicans have been saying for years Perot caused Clinton's election.You have to acknoldge third party candiates cost candiates from major party states In General Election.

Keep bringing up Carter.Obama Is not Carter.A better candiate than Carter ever was.And
better President.Clinton and Bush won reelection.Although with Bush It was more an election after the supreme court stopped the recount.

On this forum I repersente the Democrats where most others are against him on this forum.I will be for Obama while many others here are for romney.
Uh, ok whatever you say...
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #15 on: July 08, 2009, 11:20:38 pm »

New polls today:



Obama is slipping some -- probably because he is out of the country.



Expect to see more yellow on that map within 6 to 12 months.
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #16 on: July 09, 2009, 08:36:40 pm »

New polls today:



Obama is slipping some -- probably because he is out of the country.



Expect to see more yellow on that map within 6 to 12 months.
And a lot more green in 18 to 24...
Doubt that, Obama approval ratings are not looking too hot, not pleasing alot of people by leaving the country and not focusing on what the US needs.
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #17 on: July 19, 2009, 07:13:34 pm »

If that's the case, then it's time for a 3rd party or independent candidate to run.
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #18 on: August 20, 2009, 10:06:18 pm »

Based off the current polls, this is my prediction for 2012.

DEM: 276
REP: 251

Look for Obama's approval rating to lower more then steady.
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #19 on: August 22, 2009, 04:07:05 pm »

Update my prediction map...changed it around a bit.  Made Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon and Missouri lean Obama. Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Virginia, and Ohio lean REP for now.  This all depends on who is running for the REPs and how Obama is doing later on.

Folks, 2012 will be close election to watch.  Don't expect it to be anything like 2008, thank god!

DEM: 276
REP: 262
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #20 on: August 30, 2009, 10:07:14 am »

President Obama isn't looking too hot right now. How's the hope and change doing for you? Ha ha ha
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #21 on: September 09, 2009, 09:04:56 pm »

I would say eastern CO and western/central Nebraska vote similarly.  Same goes for southern CO and New Mexico.
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2009, 08:39:51 pm »

Colorado speaks!



Translated into a likely electoral result:


Modified CO to tossup. You can't predit anything yet, 3 years to go.
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #23 on: September 16, 2009, 08:30:22 pm »

I don't know whats with all the letters, so I'm changing it back to numbers.
I will not be picking and choosing which polls to put on.



When making the map, tick off the box that shows Congressional Districts - since most of the polls for either Nebraska or Maine are going to be state-wide anyway... And if we're having Green >30% for >50% ties, we should have Yellow >30% for <50% ties.
Based on polls, this it an update what I think the 2012 election will turnout.
Dem - 249
Rep - 257
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5280
MagneticFree
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,398
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70


« Reply #24 on: September 22, 2009, 09:10:18 pm »

Arizona is a 47-47 tie; Minnesota's 55% rounds up (I rounded up Texas, so don't quibble).



Colorado, Missouri, Montana, and Nevada should be interesting.  Come in Indiana and NE-02, too!


Please stop rounding polls up and down. MN's 55% cannot be rounded up to 60%, because it's 55%-45% and there's a 4% MoE.

BTW: Nobody seems to polls IN, a really interesting state that has not been polled for 1 year. I have written to PPP to include it in their user choice, but they have never done so ... Sad

I'm going to treat 55% as "5", but 56-64 as "6". 65-74 as "7", 75-84 as "8", and anything above 85 as a "9" (in case someone polls DC). 45-55 is the interesting area, and anything beyond that suggests the possibility of a blowout. That goes just the same for disapprovals, too.

You have a case on 55%; that is a 10% lead, and McCain did take a quixotic effort to win Pennsylvania in the last few weeks -- one that few Democrats thought could succeed. 

I'm going to start treating states with polls older than six months as "unpolled". So the orange disappears:



Romney would absolutely crush Obama in Utah, so I will keep that state shaded yellow.
My map update based on polls for 2012. Anything can change from now until then.
DEM: 284
REP: 250
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