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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1014858 times)
nhmagic
azmagic
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Posts: 1,097
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Political Matrix
E: 4.62, S: 4.61

« on: August 24, 2009, 12:13:27 am »

So you said that Obama won the 18-29 vote in MT by a 61-37. Then why is his favorables with them only 51-47? Not much of an "age wave" if you ask me.

He's not actively campaigning right now. The efficient and effective election machine that he had in operation in 2008 is in mothballs. Don't worry; it will be up and running, perhaps even before the Republicans start their knock-down, drag-out in New Hampshire. There are no political campaign ads. In a knock-down, drag-out primary struggle the opposing sides usually supply grist for the campaign apparatus of the incumbent.

I predict that Obama will have no meaningful primary challenge. It will be likely light-weight Dennis Kucinich and some heavy-handed acolyte of Lyndon LaRouche. Who runs will determine what sort of advertising and campaign messages will be out, as well as the locations of the ads. The autumn of 2008 will be shown as a bad time for America except for one thing. No, it's not the Philadelphia Phillies winning the World Series, which wasn't so delightful in Florida.

Without a meaningful primary challenge and with sharp competition within the other party's primaries, Obama will have a head start in winning re-election against a challenger. Is that unfair? No. That's just how American politics operates, and it shows how a mediocre-to-good incumbent President is all-but-invincible in a campaign for re-election. You can count on the Obama campaign exploiting any weakness of the opponent, just as in 2008, and pulling back only when going further will seem like overkill. Barack Obama will have control of official travels, and they will tend to go to swing states (possible exception: natural disasters).
I think Hillary could be a surprise nominee - if she smells blood, also if this healthcare thing doesn't go, dont think she won't be sniffing up the progressive members to see if they will lend her a hand.
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nhmagic
azmagic
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,097
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.62, S: 4.61

« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2010, 12:25:25 pm »

p2, liberals always use the cell phone argument, but the fact is that in most polls, democrats outpoll their actual support/margin in elections by 3-4%.  Everyone - not just the young or hispanic has a cell phone now - a republican is just as likely as a democrat to have one.  I don't buy it.
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nhmagic
azmagic
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,097
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.62, S: 4.61

« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2010, 01:33:37 pm »

p2, liberals always use the cell phone argument, but the fact is that in most polls, democrats outpoll their actual support/margin in elections by 3-4%.  Everyone - not just the young or hispanic has a cell phone now - a republican is just as likely as a democrat to have one.  I don't buy it.

cite?
Just for you Lief - though Im only doing it once, and then you're done getting a response from me on citation, as no other republican is asked on this board to do that other than me. 

Actual margin: 7.27
Marist 11/03 - 11/03 804 LV 4.0 52 43 Obama +9
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 11/01 - 11/03 1201 LV 2.9 54 43 Obama +11
IBD/TIPP 11/01 - 11/03 981 LV 3.2 52 44 Obama +8
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 11/01 - 11/02 1011 LV 3.1 51 43 Obama +8
Gallup 10/31 - 11/02 2472 LV 2.0 55 44 Obama +11
CBS News 10/31 - 11/02 714 LV -- 51 42 Obama +9
ABC News/Wash Post 10/30 - 11/02 2470 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9

Tester actual margin: .87
Rasmussen 11/04 - 11/04 500 LV 48% 50% Tester +2%
USA Today/Gallup 11/01 - 11/04 874 LV 41% 50% Tester +9%

Begich 1.25
Research 2000 10/28 - 10/30 600 LV 58 36 Begich +22
Rasmussen 10/28 - 10/28 500 LV 52 44 Begich +8

Udall 10.31
National Journal/FD 10/23 - 10/27 409 RV 51 36 Udall +15
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 626 LV 48 36 Udall +12
Rocky Mtn News/CBS4 10/21 - 10/23 500 LV 51 38 Udall +13

Shaheen 6.34
Rasmussen 10/30 - 10/30 700 LV 52 44 Shaheen +8
SurveyUSA 10/29 - 10/30 682 LV 53 40 Shaheen +13
ARG 10/28 - 10/30 600 LV 53 41 Shaheen +12

Shall I Go On?
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nhmagic
azmagic
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,097
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.62, S: 4.61

« Reply #3 on: April 06, 2010, 05:21:30 pm »

Isn't it remarkable that Rasmussen has shown few polls with Obama with approval over 50%? Read between the lines on Alabama and the Dakotas. He did show Hawaii and Rhode Island as extreme outliers for America as a whole.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Rasmussen polls from  Utah, Louisiana, Kansas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia at any moment.  


Michigan? Oregon? Washington? Minnesota? Massachusetts? Maine? New Hampshire? Hmmm.

I wonder about Georgia, Florida, Indiana, South Carolina, Virginia, Montana, and Colorado.


... Does anyone have any problems if I remove the recordings of the most recent polls in Montana and Utah? Those are the last 2009 polls on the map. Spring housekeeping, so to speak.

New Hampshire is surely anti Obama right now.  I dont think he's holding off on poll releases just because...
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nhmagic
azmagic
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,097
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.62, S: 4.61

« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2010, 11:51:51 am »

These polls are only reflecting what the feeling is at this current time.  Considering (irregardless of LePage's minority win) that republicans took back control of the legislature (which to most people was unthinkable) there is the opportunity for some potential of a republican win in the state, particularly in the 2nd CD.  Republicans in Maine can now put together a functioning state party apparatus again - that's critical.  With that said, it's pretty doubtful that the GOP will win the state, but who knows...
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nhmagic
azmagic
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,097
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.62, S: 4.61

« Reply #5 on: December 15, 2010, 11:23:58 pm »

The strongly disapprove numbers seem a little low as well. It looks like views towards Obama are getting less polarized, which is an excellent sign for his re-election chances.

Actually his disapproval numbers are tending to be higher than previous presidents at the same point in time.

Of course no President in recent times has been so vilified so early and so vehemently. Before one bring up Dubya, he had yet to invade Iraq.
Please...spare us.  You get what you give out.  Obama vilified hardworking real Americans (not the eurocentric, one world crowd) before he even assumed power and went to a church for 20 years that spewed hatred of the country.  Bitter clingers...punish our enemies and reward our friends...flipping off both Hillary and McCain in speeches....soliloquies in his book about his hatred of whites...He is getting what he deserves, and he deserves yet more because he needs to feel the pain and anger he has caused this nation while he works to destroy it.  He needs all of the pain he has caused to be returned tenfold upon himself.  The sick thing though, is that he probably feeds off of the pain...like a monster does.  He enjoys it and it pleasures him to see so many people suffering.  Maybe we should lay off for that reason and deprive him such pleasure.
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nhmagic
azmagic
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,097
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.62, S: 4.61

« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2012, 08:31:20 pm »

If Romney doesn't show at least a 3point bounce out of the debate then I feel this election is well over with. I mean come on. More than 67 million americans watch the debate and you destroyed Obama at the debate and the best you can do is less than 3 points? I may be too premature here. But after what I saw, I was ready to see huge jumps. Why isn't it happening? What is going on here? On CNN poll of undecided colorado voters, they overwhelmingly gave the win to Romney. Yet when asked who had made up their minds, 8 went for Romney and 8 went for Obama. This is crazy. Now the expectations are set that Romney will win the next debate, if Obama comes swinging, we will be back where we were at, a lead for Obama by 2%.

This electorate is so polarized. If by next week, Obama still leading, the pundits at Fox will be having a major fit.
Nah man.  They never showed the people choose - Erin Burnett just said it and you're supposed to believe it.  When is a focus group not expected to share who they're voting for prior to being chosen.  It doesn't make for good tv.  I'm guessing that the results were so bad that Burnett just made it up.  She kind of hesitated when saying it and it looked like she was lying.  Her excuse was that I promised that I wouldn't make them share on TV.  What network does that prior to a focus group?
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