The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Poundingtherock]

Yeah, the approval rating in the states sometimes don't matchup with his approval rating overall.

For example, Rasmussen found him at 48/50 in Michigan, a state where Obama won 57% of the vote (that's better than the December MPIC-ERA poll that showed Obama at 44/55 approval/disapproval in Michigan and 49/45 favorable/unfavorable).

Obama may have "gained" in the deep red states because he performed so poorly relative to his performance nationally but any gain that he makes in these states is irrelevant just as any loss in the deep blue states is irrelevant because he'll just win the deep blue states and lose the deep red states regardless of any modest gain.

Where I think he's really struggling is in the swing states (though Rasmussen does show Obama faring better in Virginia than either PPP or SurveyUSA).

[Poundingtherock]

The best way to explain the South Carolina polling from Ras and PPP is to look at when they were conducted.  They were conducted right after his afgahnistan speech, which might have boosted his numbers among Republicans/conservatives temporarily before reality set in and we started hating him again.

The PPP showed him receiving 17% approval from Republicans nationally, which is a lot higher than where he is with Republicans in PPP's national polling and in PPP's polling of other non-Northeastern states.

[Poundingtherock]

Daily Kos/Research 2K

Favorable/Unfavorable

Obama 40/55

Obama won almost 45% of the vote there.

[Poundingtherock]

Here's the link to the North Dakota poll:

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/1/6/ND/421

[Poundingtherock]

What?  Obama's approval rating is lower than his favorable rating, so his favorable rating is probably giving Obama the best case scenario.  His approval rating is likely 1-2 points lower.

In any event, Mason-Dixon shows his favorable rating in Nevada to be at 34/46.

[Poundingtherock]

In any event, Obama is in horrible shape in Nevada if the Mason-Dixon numbers are correct unless you believe his approval rating is higher than his favorable rating in the state.

[Poundingtherock]

Pbrower, 46% unfavorables with 20% undecided is not good news.  80% of the undecideds would have to view him favorably for him to break even.

However, I'll grant you that it's likely that the undecideds overwhelminly have a favorable opinion of him, probably by a 2-to-1 margin and that gets you to around a 47/52 favorable/unfavorable in a state where he won 55% of the vote.

[Poundingtherock]

Oklahoma exit poll from 2008 indeed showed 41% Democrat, 44% Republican

In other words, Obama is probably doing mcuh worse than what the poll found.  He's probably closer to around 30% in approval in Oklahoma.

[Poundingtherock]

http://blog.pos.org/2010/01/western-states-update-gop-back-on-top/

"President Obama’s job approval numbers have plummeted in the West. A majority of voters (53%) in Western states disapprove of the job he’s doing while 45% approve. Compare this to the 100-day mark in his term when Obama’s job approval in the West was 59% approve/33% disapprove."

[Poundingtherock]

PPP

46/47

[Poundingtherock]

PPP North Carolina

44/50

[Poundingtherock]

Obama's speeches are inconsistent.  He's on sometimes, off sometimes.

Just see the polling for his race speech.  It was horrible.

Link

[Poundingtherock]

Obama in Nevada

Daily KOs/Reserch 2K

Favorable/unfavorable: 45/50

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/1/20/NV/432

[Poundingtherock]

Obama approval rating for Rasmussen in Arizona and Indiana

Indiana: 43/56

Arizona: 43/57

[Poundingtherock]

Sources:

Link AZ Governor

Link IN Senate

[Poundingtherock]

Rocky Mountain poll Arizona

http://www.brcpolls.com/10/RMP%202010-I-02.pdf

Obama: 40% excellent/good
35% very poor/poor
18% fair

[Poundingtherock]

PPP(D) Alaska

Obama 37/56

Let's just say that Obama won't get a more favorable sample than what PPP(D) gave him.

[Poundingtherock]

Begich's best bet in 2014 is for Obama to lose in 2012.

[Poundingtherock]

Actually, Gallup is showing somewhat of a negative bounce from his SOTU address.

That's disastrous for Obama to get no bounce or a negative bounce from a primetime speech.

[Poundingtherock]

So you are now conceding that Obama is no better than other Presidents at changing public opinion through his speeches?

If so, that's quite a concession since that was allegedly one of his greatest stregths as a candidate.  If he's not able to move the needle any better than any other President, it's tough to see what he can use to turn it around considering that he lacks the abilities of other Presidents on things other than speeches.

[Poundingtherock]

Obama favorable/unfavorable in Florida: 51/45

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/files/2-10-fl-sw---crists-quandary.pdf

The sample is 40/37 Democrat/Republican...so it's a general election sample.  It appears that Democrats are now enthused to vote this November but are still losing.

[Poundingtherock]

New Hampshire Obama poll:

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2010_winter_presapp20410.pdf

48/47 approval/disapproval

52/41 favorable/unfavorable

[Poundingtherock]

Regarding the left slant in  Fox News/Opinion Dynamics for  Obama's approval ratings, see the following from October:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/10/question-order-may-bias-fox-news-health.html

"The first instinct that most of the liberals in the audience will have simply this: well, it's a Fox poll, so of course it's biased. The reality is a little bit more complicated, however. Fox News's pollster, Opinion Dynamics, generally hasn't shown much evidence of a Republican-leaning "house effect". Take a look, for example, at their Obama approval numbers. Since the beginning of Obama's term, they have shown, on average, 58 percent of registered voters approving the President versus 32 percent disapproval. This is, if anything, generous to Obama, as the average non-Fox polls has shown 57 percent approval and 37 percent disapproval over this interval."

[Poundingtherock]

51/46 in the Washington Post poll, down from 53/44 last month

One year ago, he was 68/23

[Poundingtherock]

Obama's "favorable" rating is 39% in the new NY Times poll.  See question #14.

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_Obama_Congress_021110.pdf