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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1015081 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: September 11, 2010, 11:51:59 am »

How early did polling companies start using strongly and somewhat wording?  Surely we could find data on Clinton and Bush.  What about the Ford-Carter-Reagan era?


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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2010, 02:43:53 pm »

Rasmussen Reports (independently of Fox News) is out with a new poll that has Obama at 57% statewide approval in CA.  We need to see what they get independently of Fox News in a couple of the other Fox News/POR states, but the CA result makes the POR polls look more than a little suspicious.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2010, 09:44:19 am »
« Edited: September 23, 2010, 09:46:05 am by Skill and Chance »

I wonder why Obama is doing so anomalously well in the more urbanized Southern states?  He is polling better in GA and FL than CO or NV.  NC approvals are right at the national average in Rasmussen polling.  He is doing as well in GA and FL as he is in NH and ME!  I wonder what VA looks like right now? 

Are GA, NC and FL now friendlier to Obama than PA or CO and NV?   
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2010, 10:00:12 am »

I wonder why Obama is doing so anomalously well in the more urbanized Southern states?  He is polling better in GA and FL than CO or NV.

Black people?

Extrapolating backward suggests he would have carried NC, GA, and FL in 2008 by about the same margin as VA.  This is way off from reality, which suggests an underlying trend toward Obama in the coastal South.  There is also a much more widely discussed trend away from Obama apparent in the Rust Belt and maybe the Rocky Mountain West.  Remember when Montana just barely voted for McCain?  That won't be happening again in 2012.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2010, 02:41:12 pm »

Obama lost the state 60-39. With the 58-41 spread in approvals, any chance of Obama winning Alabama is slim.  But look at the difference, and it may suggest some trend that bodes ill for the GOP Presidential nominee in 2012.

Alabama was one of the worst states for Obama in 2008, his 45th-best, and he could win it only in about a 45-state landslide.  About the only way that he wins it in something "less" than a 45-state landslide is if he gets out of Afghanistan with no problems remaining.

My seat-of-the-pants estimate of the likelihood of Obama winning Alabama is about 1%. Higher chance than Utah or Wyoming.

More significantly, it fortifies the idea that a 47% approval rating in Georgia isn't out of the question. Except that Greater Atlanta is far bigger than Greater Birmingham, Alabama and Georgia would seem to have similar demographics.

States shift back and forth all the time. If there is any benefit to Obama in Alabama, it is purely a local phenomenon (or one that applies to Alabaman demographics) and not something that's happening nationwide.

If anything, Republicans should be glad that the erosion in their vote is currently happening in safe Republican states. The erosion in the Democrats' vote right now is primarily happening in the midwest (at least for the 2010 elections, which you have to admit are at least somewhat nationalized), and those states were hardly safe for Gore, Kerry, or Obama.

Trends right now favor Republicans. There's no doubt about that. Democrats are unenthused. Half the problem is complacency. The other half of the problem is Obama.

If we assume current trends hold, I don't think its a net gain for either party.  You would have OH moving decisively into the GOP column and FL moving into the Democratic column.  You can't seriously call NC and FL safe Republican states when Obama just won them two years ago.  States like MI and WI would be toss-ups, but so would NC and GA.  We haven't had a poll there in ages, but I would be shocked if Obama doesn't have above average approval in VA right now given NC and GA. 

The net result is about 50 electoral votes coming into play for the GOP in the midwest and about 50 additional ones coming into play for the Dems in the Southeast (although not Alabama unless you are a hack).  If he can't make it back to 50/50 approval, he will be struggling regardless, but these trends don't really help or hurt Obama in a close election.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2010, 05:22:32 pm »

The net would be a 60-70 EV gain from an Northeast, Heartland R shift, and FL VA shift to the Obama.

But there is no net shift in the Northeast whatsoever, unless you count PA as the NE.  The midwestern shift toward the GOP mainly entails OH, PA, IA, and IN (which is now long gone save for Morning in America II).  In the SE, FL, VA, NC, and GA are shifting toward Obama.  The president still has above average approval in MN, MI, and WI.  There would be no big margins, but these 3 are still his to lose in a close race.

There is an elephant in the living room with all of these approval polls: who is being polled?  The vast majority of these state polls reflect the opinions of 2010 likely voters, not 2012 likely voters.  Turnout will be much higher in a presidential year, so a midterm electorate is not a good model for the 2012 electorate.  In the recent past, higher turnout has always benefited Democrats over Republicans.  Maybe this isn't the case anymore, after all CNN did just report a 42-54 sample among all adults, but we need more evidence before anyone can set up a meaningful 2012 likely voter model.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2010, 11:24:50 am »

The correct numbers are 47% approve, 52% disapprove.  Strongly Approve is now at 28%, not 27%, and strongly Disapprove has fallen to 41%.

This looks like real upward movement over the past few days.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2010, 12:12:39 pm »

South Carolina (Ras):

38-61

If there is some movement in the South East, South Carolina isn't feeling it.  Though admittedly it's hard for Obama to get good approvals in a state that gives Jim DeMint a 67% approval (which might just be the highest for any sitting Republican Senator right now), and where 71% of Voters want to repeal Obamacare.

Though I'm curious as to who are the roughly 10% of Likely voters that both approve of Obama and want to repeal his signature piece of legislation.

Probably lefties who want single payer.  Polls that ask voters whether they oppose health care reform from the right or the left consistently get about 10% of voters opposing it because it doesn't do enough.

There was a poll last week that got an even more provocative result: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/120915-poll-many-voters-think-health-reform-too-conservative
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2010, 09:37:28 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +2.

Disapprove 49%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

There may be a bad sample moving through the system, but there has definitely a shift.  These are the best Obama numbers since mid April 2010.

These are 2010 likely voters, right?

50/50 approval of the incumbent president does not fit very well with the kind of losses expected for the Dems this fall.  This is almost certainly an outlier when Obama's preferred candidate is barely leading in Connecticut of all places.

If Obama really has recovered to 50/50 and it holds through October, Dems would narrowly hold the House and probably wouldn't lose more than 4 in the Senate.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2010, 05:09:00 pm »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)

Interesting.

It's interesting that Carter and Reagan were in such similar positions in year 2, given their ultimate results.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2010, 01:56:57 pm »

Today he is at 48% approve, 51% disapprove which does suggest some modest upward movement over the past week toward more of a 50-50 landscape.

Strongly approve is 28% and Strongly disapprove is 42%.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2010, 09:50:16 am »

He's still at 48/51 today.  Strongly approve is up 1 to 30% and strongly disapprove is down one to 41%
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2010, 10:11:29 am »

Obama's numbers were a bit higher at this point last year, before the election.  It was not a good year for Democrats.

I wouldn't read too much into NJ and VA, period.  They both went D in 2001 when Bush had ~90% approval.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #13 on: November 12, 2010, 11:36:57 am »
« Edited: November 12, 2010, 11:42:30 am by Skill and Chance »

I'll be honest...Nevada and Colorado seem to be trending left.

I'm not certain Reid doesn't also beat Lowden and Tark or Bennett doesn't also beat Norton.

It looks like the West in general is moving to the left while the Midwest is moving heavily to the right.

The Northeast and South are what they are but there are some bright spots in both areas for the GOP and Dems (south carolina in the south and new hampshire in the north).



Seems like this state is trending left, and for the worst IMO. It'll be a messed up state in a few decades just watch, similar like CA and the leftcoast, runned to hell. It won't matter cause I'll find another place to move.

What I'd say the midwest and the rustbelts are trending right.

I think the new party coalitions are shaping up to be NE + W (including the inland SW)  for the Dems and the South + the middle of the country for the GOP.  It's unclear where VA, PA, and FL fit into this, but I would imagine VA ends up leaning left by 2012, PA moves hard to the right, and FL starts leaning left with increasing Hispanic population and increasing salience of environmental issues (this is probably the GOP high water mark in FL, with anger at Obamacare dominating the elderly vote).  I expect this divide to be cemented whenever climate change legislation resurfaces, which could be as early as 2013 if Obama gets re-elected.  There will be a lot of midwestern Dems defying their party on this and also a lot of western GOPers who have little choice but to go along with it given the force of environmental issues in that region.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: December 04, 2010, 05:24:37 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1. 

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

If this is a bad sample, we should know by tomorrow or Monday.

I believe this is real.  Unemployment plus WikiLeaks would be enough to do this IMO.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #15 on: December 14, 2010, 08:33:27 am »

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Well...okay.

The "devil you know" mentality rules the day.

And after two years, Obama is still an enigma.

And yet he is leading the entire known GOP field in Ohio of all places!  I agree it seems odd given his approval, but he is polling at a 2008 repeat just about everywhere he's been tested, and that's with an economy that will likely improve over the next 2 years.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #16 on: December 15, 2010, 03:18:07 pm »

The strongly disapprove numbers seem a little low as well. It looks like views towards Obama are getting less polarized, which is an excellent sign for his re-election chances.

He needs that number to go down into the low 30's before he can relax, especially if he stays under 50% approve.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #17 on: February 20, 2011, 12:32:41 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

This could normal wobble, a bad sample, or real movement.  We should wait until midweek.

Could it be Wisconsin?  Also, he just went way up to 51/42 in Gallup yesterday, which is interesting.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #18 on: May 01, 2011, 12:30:13 pm »

Gallup is 46-46 today, so let's wait a few days, but it seems that Obama is up from his recent low.

Maybe the birth certificate actually helped him?  I mourn for my country if that is the case...
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #19 on: September 05, 2011, 04:56:31 pm »

For Perry to win New York or California, the economy would have to be in complete freefall. With Romney, maybe he could pull it out since people do see him as some economic master or whatever. Even with Romney we would have to see unemployment pushing close to 10% though. If unemployment is still at 9.1-9.3%, we are looking at a close Obama loss at best for the Republicans. The battleground would still be the Midwest, four corners states and the Mid-Atlantic.

You'll have to define freefall.

I'm saying, a double dip recession, with greater than 9% employment, and Rubio on the ticket, you are looking a a map like the one I posted.

The midwest is already a battleground.

It would take an economic situation like Hoover 1932.  With >18% unemployment, Perry would be favored in CA and NY would basically be a tie.  I think Obama would only win HI, VT, MA, MD, and DC and a 50/50 chance in NY and IL.       
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #20 on: September 05, 2011, 05:54:27 pm »

For Perry to win New York or California, the economy would have to be in complete freefall. With Romney, maybe he could pull it out since people do see him as some economic master or whatever. Even with Romney we would have to see unemployment pushing close to 10% though. If unemployment is still at 9.1-9.3%, we are looking at a close Obama loss at best for the Republicans. The battleground would still be the Midwest, four corners states and the Mid-Atlantic.

You'll have to define freefall.

I'm saying, a double dip recession, with greater than 9% employment, and Rubio on the ticket, you are looking a a map like the one I posted.

The midwest is already a battleground.

It would take an economic situation like Hoover 1932.  With >18% unemployment, Perry would be favored in CA and NY would basically be a tie.  I think Obama would only win HI, VT, MA, MD, and DC and a 50/50 chance in NY and IL.       

It would take much less than 1932 to do that.  The numbers are better than 1980.  Arguably, the economy isn't as bad as 1980, but unemployment is higher.

There has to be several things happening.  One of them is Rubio as VP; a second one that Rubio will attract at least Hispanics not of Mexican descent.  The third is the economy is worse, and in recession through the summer of 2012.

I think with Perry, a map might look more like this:



NB:  Those other conditions have to be present and there is no prediction that they will be.

You aren't giving Obama enough credit.  Even in 1932, Hoover won 6 states and narrowly lost another 2.  In say a 12% unemployment scenario, the election would surely be lost, but Obama would still win at least 10-15 states in a 2 way election.  The 60% Obama 2008 states aren't flipping barring 25% local unemployment. 

I think this is his realistic floor vs. Perry (Romney might get a bigger landslide):

*12.1% Unemployment on Election Day, job losses through the summer and fall*



Perry/Christie 376 EV/ 56.2% PV
Obama/Biden 162 EV/ 43.1% PV


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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #21 on: September 05, 2011, 06:04:18 pm »
« Edited: September 05, 2011, 07:16:17 pm by Skill and Chance »

A realistic Obama Morning in America 2.0 ceiling:

*7.1% Unemployment on Election Day, >3.0 million new jobs created July-September 2012*



Obama/Biden 453 EV/ 58.8% PV
Perry/Christie  85 EV/ 40.6% PV
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #22 on: September 05, 2011, 07:14:59 pm »

A realistic Obama Morning in America 2.0 ceiling:

*6.9% Unemployment on Election Day, >3.0 million new jobs created July-September 2012*



Obama/Biden 453 EV/ 58.8% PV
Perry/Christie  85 EV/ 40.6% PV

6.9% unemployment in October 2012 is not realistic.  You would need about 450,000 jobs created per month over the next year and GDP growth near 10% every quarter through the third of 2012.

I should have said 7.1%.  I'm looking for the outer positive edge of realistic, just like 12.1% would be the outer negative edge of realistic.  In 1983-84 there were several months of ~700K job growth and the labor force is about 1/3rd larger today than it was then.  Several months of 7 figure job growth should be possible in a 1935 or 1984 paced recovery with today's population.   
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #23 on: September 05, 2011, 07:33:19 pm »

Here's what I think is the most likely outcome as of now:

"A burst of 350k job growth during spring-summer 2012 and not having to run against Romney saved my presidency."



Obama/Biden 300 EV/ 50.4% PV
Perry/Christie  238 EV/ 48.7% PV

Election Day Unemployment: 8.5%
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #24 on: September 05, 2011, 11:23:55 pm »

Here's what I think is the most likely outcome as of now:

"A burst of 350k job growth during spring-summer 2012 and not having to run against Romney saved my presidency."



Obama/Biden 300 EV/ 50.4% PV
Perry/Christie  238 EV/ 48.7% PV

Election Day Unemployment: 8.5%
Do you really think that Ohio will flip before North Carolina?  And there is no way Christie will run as Perry's Veep.  He wants two terms as Governor of New Jersey so that he can run in 2016.

I think FL and NC are the easiest Obama holds beyond the VA-CO-NV election deciding tier, so yes.  OH demographically is rapidly moving right and NC is moving exponentially left while FL is a quite stable tilt R.  Charlotte and RDU get large enough to outvote the rest of the state by 2020, and when that happens, NC turns into MD south. Unless the election somehow becomes a referendum on labor unions, I can't see OH voting left of NC and FL.  Also, don't forget about the D convention in Charlotte.
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