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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1022456 times)
Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« on: July 21, 2011, 01:12:54 am »

It's a parody of a critique of Pascal's "proof" of the existence of God.

Anselm's.

I completely agree with the rest of the paragraph though.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2011, 08:04:53 pm »

Gallup:

40% Approve
50% Disapprove

The next week probably won't be nice ...

That is the lowest Obama number ever.  Gallup isn't exactly known for accuracy recently.

To be fair, I really can't think of anything in his presidency so far that Obama has been quite as abjectly pathetic on as this, even at the nadir of the health-care fight. The man called a prime-time nationwide address to tell people to call their Congressmen, for God's sake! (They did, so it was a success in that sense, but hardly something that gave off a feeling of anything remotely resembling strength). It makes sense to me that this is the sort of situation that could cause Obama to trough.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2011, 10:38:24 pm »

Heck, I would stick my neck out and predict that Hawaii will probably support the Democrat party nominee for President in 2012 while Wyoming will probably support the Republican party nominee in the same year for the same office.

Hawaii's going to specifically support a Thai party's candidate for an office that doesn't currently exist in Thailand? That is an unusual prediction. What's your reasoning?

Agreed on Wyoming.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2011, 11:05:31 am »

Heck, I would stick my neck out and predict that Hawaii will probably support the Democrat party nominee for President in 2012 while Wyoming will probably support the Republican party nominee in the same year for the same office.

Hawaii's going to specifically support a Thai party's candidate for an office that doesn't currently exist in Thailand? That is an unusual prediction. What's your reasoning?

Agreed on Wyoming.

So you are a sock puppet.

I'm a human being.

You, however, confuse American political parties with ones in other countries with similar names, and thus may well be a poorly-programmed robot (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room).
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2011, 04:35:50 pm »
« Edited: November 20, 2011, 04:37:28 pm by Nathan »

I think there's an implied 'all else being equal' in Bob's post. (There's also an implied 'hackish bull' in all or most or Bob's posts, but I don't think that's as intentional on the part of the author.)
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #5 on: December 03, 2011, 07:21:24 pm »

Obama Average Approval Rating November 2011 (Gallup)

43% Approve

49% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 58/37 (November 1939)

Truman: 54/33 (November 1947) AND 23/61 (November 1951)

Eisenhower: 78/13 (November 1955)

Kennedy: 58/30 (November 1963)

Johnson: 42/46 (November 1967)

Nixon: 49/37 (November 1971)

Ford: 43/45 (November 1975)

Carter: 35/52 (November 1979)

Reagan: 53/37 (November 1983)

Bush I: 55/37 (November 1991)

Clinton: 52/41 (November 1995)

Bush II: 52/45 (November 2003)

Truman was popular in the fall of 47?!  When did he start cratering to fall into the 30's by the summer of 48?

The Korean War. I'm going to guess that as the front line sagged southward so did President Truman's approval rating. The war also got increasingly unpopular as it dragged on.

Goldmined.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #6 on: December 27, 2011, 05:27:02 pm »

Meh. Up by two points, down by two points. Gallup is tetchy enough that I wouldn't read that much into it.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2012, 07:56:16 pm »


I know that when I think Hitler, I think mediocre but stable approval ratings.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #8 on: January 23, 2012, 07:57:15 pm »

I'm not sure how I feel now knowing that, swapping out 'skin' for 'hair', J.J. and I have the same 'type'.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #9 on: January 29, 2012, 02:27:47 pm »


If you don't include undecideds and just divide the approval by all those registering an opinion, it's only one point below what he got in Kansas in 2008.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #10 on: January 30, 2012, 08:53:02 pm »

More of the same another 4 years, doh!

Well, yeah. 'Help keep America from becoming unimaginably worse and never getting better again: Vote Obama 2012' isn't the world's catchiest slogan, but it's one of the most honest ones possible for his campaign.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2012, 02:53:01 pm »

Agreed. This probably reflects improvement in Obama's numbers over a period of a couple of weeks or so, not a couple of days.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2012, 03:58:14 pm »

Good economic news bounce must be here. Time for Obama to start putting out the positive ads, he needs to start early.

While I doubt that the 'Halftime in America' ad was meant to be seen as such (partly because while Clint Eastwood's politics may be many things, some of them admirable, conventional American liberalism has never seemed to be one of them), there may be something to the idea that it's having this sort of effect.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #13 on: February 10, 2012, 02:02:03 am »

It's official: America is Obama-country again.
I wish this was true but prolly wont last thru election day!

Obama is more likely to tread water around ~49-52%, with a few blips in either direction, than start going downhill again unless the economy gets shot to Hell again (or become as popular as he was at the start of his term, for that matter). He's such a known quantity that 'spin' around him is pretty much pointless at this point, and campaignwise he can give as much as he can get, in terms of money and organization. Expecting him to improve much beyond a few points above water is also ridiculous, though.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2012, 01:06:39 am »

Could Obama's ratings on the rebound finally?

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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2012, 07:22:11 pm »
« Edited: February 20, 2012, 07:25:11 pm by Nathan »

Okay, what the Hell is going on? There's no reason why Obama should be flagging right now, unless this plus that weird Obama-Romney poll are just bad samples going through Gallup.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #16 on: February 20, 2012, 09:00:33 pm »

That's slightly less normal with polling companies than with people, especially people in relationships.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #17 on: February 21, 2012, 12:45:25 pm »

Okay, what the Hell is going on? There's no reason why Obama should be flagging right now, unless this plus that weird Obama-Romney poll are just bad samples going through Gallup.

Oil prices.  There is a sense, rightly or wrongly, that there will be an economic slowdown.

God damn this stupid civilization and its obsession with that ing mineral slime.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #18 on: February 21, 2012, 02:24:17 pm »
« Edited: February 21, 2012, 02:25:49 pm by Nathan »

Okay, what the Hell is going on? There's no reason why Obama should be flagging right now, unless this plus that weird Obama-Romney poll are just bad samples going through Gallup.

Oil prices.  There is a sense, rightly or wrongly, that there will be an economic slowdown.

God damn this stupid civilization and its obsession with that ing mineral slime.

It is the economic slowdown that it could bring that causes problems.

The economic slowdown wouldn't necessarily be the case if we had started looking into ways to alleviate the addiction to mineral slime considerably longer ago than we did, but yes, I understand the problem. I also understand why people are stupid enough to freak out in a herd mentality and blame the President for this. That doesn't mean I have to like it.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #19 on: February 24, 2012, 01:21:27 pm »

No, but there is a "point of no return."  At this point, it appears to be in the mid-40's.

What makes it appear to be that?

Nobody has been reelected with scores below a certain point (in the mid 40's) on Gallup.

Considering there's only one President to ever be below Mid-40s in February in a Gallup poll (George H.W. Bush) and he was in a unique 3 man race for re-election, that's hardly a trend.

I don't think it was a three man race in February 1992.  He was considering it late in the month:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ross_Perot_presidential_campaign,_1992

There is also the point made several months ago about the low point within the last 18 and 12 months prior to the election.  It is where an incumbent bottoms out on Gallup.  The only one who didn't was Truman.  Ford almost survived with a 39% low 11 months out.

I am saying that, historically, Obama's numbers are not good.  He might be at the point of no return, but we'll still have to watch, because it is close to the number.

Gallup is sensitive enough that this would be a nearly meaningless statement even with a Republican field that was something other than a travesty and abortion of decent conservative politics.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #20 on: February 24, 2012, 03:16:44 pm »



Gallup is sensitive enough that this would be a nearly meaningless statement even with a Republican field that was something other than a travesty and abortion of decent conservative politics.

Actually, I'm using the weekly numbers, which are fairly stable.  They have shown only a 4 point range from 12/1/11 until 2/19/12.

I've also been finding it interesting how it seems like at some point over the past year or so Gallup just kind of drifted to the generally low end in terms of the President's approval ratings. I might be misremembering but it seemed like it used to be consistently fairly bullish on him.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #21 on: February 27, 2012, 10:32:32 am »

I tend to just mentally resolve all of these approval rating bounces to 'tie' these days.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #22 on: February 27, 2012, 08:12:38 pm »

I tend to just mentally resolve all of these approval rating bounces to 'tie' these days.

Well, by tomorrow or Wednesday, we should know for sure.

It's not a question of knowing for sure about any one poll so much as how they all seem to be clustered in that general 45-53 range but go off on their own weird little tracks within that.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #23 on: February 28, 2012, 02:06:39 pm »

Meanwhile Gallup is at 43-50, the lowest in...quite a while.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #24 on: March 01, 2012, 02:59:59 pm »

Why would anyone approve someone who trashed our economy by making bigger government and destroying business? The only good thing about Obama is that he killed Osama Bin laden.

1. Welcome! I think you're the only Mormon we have on the forum, unless you count Tweed, who's thinking of converting.
2. Yes, there are other places to discuss this. There's a whole economics board, as well as US General and the rest of the 2012 board for general discussion of Obama's record and how it relates to his reelection prospects. This thread is pretty much just for statistical repository and analysis.
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