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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1026181 times)
Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« on: November 15, 2011, 04:31:24 pm »

I'm not really sure what is fueling Obama's uptick. Messaging on the jobs bill? Support for ending the Iraq war? Warm and fuzzy holiday goodyfeelings?

The economy sucks, yet Obama rises to 50%. Just seems counter intuitive.

Better than expected economic data keeps happening (it's not that much better but an improvement is an improvement), Libya, and a pathetic GOP field works well in his favor.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2011, 10:44:22 pm »

Perhaps he's feeling some political fallout from the failure of the debt committee.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2011, 06:12:02 pm »

Gallup's economic confidence level has been steadily rising since July and the end of the debt ceiling crisis.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2012, 02:34:28 pm »

Gallup is at 45A/47D.

Either it's a short term bump due to Iraq or a structural improvement due to greater optimism about the economy.  Obama could be following a 6 month delayed Reagan trajectory if it's the latter case.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/122840/Gallup-Daily-Economic-Indexes.aspx

It may be structural. The Gallup Economic Confidence is still negative and sits at -32, but compare it to the end of July when it was -55. At that point his approvals were around 39/52. There has been a noticeable trend in an improving perception about the economy, and this can only help Obama.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #4 on: March 03, 2012, 07:55:14 pm »

I still don't understand why in 2012 people are looking anywhere else besides Rasmussen. They predicted 50/50 correctly in 2004 and only missed 4 states in 2008. Each election since their existence in 2003 they have been the most accurate. I know warm and fuzzy hope is nice for those who don't lead in polls, but let's grow up and be serious. Let's get real and seek what has been the standard bearer in recent elections. Most other polling places have lost their ways or become outdated.

Rasmussen was the worst pollster of the 2010 midterms.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #5 on: March 03, 2012, 08:06:29 pm »

I still don't understand why in 2012 people are looking anywhere else besides Rasmussen. They predicted 50/50 correctly in 2004 and only missed 4 states in 2008. Each election since their existence in 2003 they have been the most accurate. I know warm and fuzzy hope is nice for those who don't lead in polls, but let's grow up and be serious. Let's get real and seek what has been the standard bearer in recent elections. Most other polling places have lost their ways or become outdated.

Rasmussen was the worst pollster of the 2010 midterms.

No the tea party senate candidates lost steam and momentum at the end and so the numbers from the entire year as a whole seemed off. The final results and final polling were closer. Midterm Elections are tougher to predict to begin with because of the unpredictable turnout. What do you mean by worst?

When polling numbers were compared to the actual result, Rasmussen had the worst average error and a heavy bias toward GOP candidates in the midterms. It was not an issue of "losing steam." Rasmussen missed Hawaii by a margin of 40 points.

Nate Silver composed a good piece here. We also had an Atlas member table all of the Rasmussen polls against the final results and again, there was a large deviation.

Time will tell to see if he's back on the ball on 2012.
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