NY-20 Special Election

[Meeker]

Now we have to defend an open R+3 (2004) district in a special election.

Thanks a lot Governor Asshole.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They'll just dismantle the district in after 2010 anyway, so who cares?

Edit: Happy now?

[Meeker]

They'll just dismantle the district in 2010 anyway, so who cares?

The "ZOMG THE DEMOCRATS JUST LOST A SPECIAL ELECTION IN A SEAT THEY HAD HELD!!11!1one!!!1" narrative is one I like to avoid.

Plus the DCCC is going to have to pour money into this thing.

[Horus]

We get a woman who's likely to be an extremely good senator, but lose a firm grip on this sea. Its not the end of the world, overall I'm happy with the choice.

[Brittain33]

They'll just dismantle the district in 2010 anyway, so who cares?

The "ZOMG THE DEMOCRATS JUST LOST A SPECIAL ELECTION IN A SEAT THEY HAD HELD!!11!1one!!!1" narrative is one I like to avoid.

Plus the DCCC is going to have to pour money into this thing.

Given the actual numbers of Democrats in the House and Senate, we can afford to lose a little PR for a few weeks and not lose any action on the legislative agenda, IMO.

[Keystone Phil]

We love you, Governor Paterson!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

We love you, Governor Paterson!

You are getting a little over-confident to put it mildly.

Remember everyone Obama won this seat.

[Holmes]

For now I'm willing to bet that Democrats keep this seat. Anyone wanna bet against me?

[Keystone Phil]

Remember everyone Obama won this seat.

OBAMA 4 U.S. HOUSE (AGAIN)

[Lunar]

ALBANY—Already the jockeying over who will replace Kirsten Gillibrand in the House has begun.

I called Republican State Senator Roy McDonald, a longtime assemblyman from Gillibrand's district, just elected to Joe Bruno's former State Senate seat. He is often mentioned as a likely candidate for the House seat.

"I've heard that State Senator Betty Little from Glens Falls is interested, that Sandy Treadwell is interested, that Jimmy Tedisco is interested, and that John Faso is interested," McDonald said, and he predicted a "scramble" that would draw many candidates.

Each party's designee for the seat will be determined by a canvass of the county party chairman within the district. (There are 10.)

McDonald said he's not ruling anything out, but said the size of the district and the need to fly to Washington made congressional service less of a plum than it seems for some.

"I don't know if I have the capacity. The U.S. House and the U.S. Senate is becoming like the House of Lords," he said. "My father worked in a steel mill. I think I can make a difference as a state senator, and I'm going to focus on that."

Jasper Nolan, the Saratoga County Republican Chairman, told me last month that if it was an open seat, he thought a Republican candidate would have a very good shot at retaking the district. There are about 70,000 more Republican voters on the rolls than Democrats.

The Times Union is reporting that for Democrats, candidates include Saratoga County Democratic Chairman Larry Bulman (whose organization was first to endorse Gillibrand in 2006), as well as past local candidates Mike Russo, M. Tracey Brooks and Darius Shahinfar.

http://www.politickerny.com/1613/lining-replace-gillibrand

[Lunar]

"State Assembly Republican Minority Leader Jim Tedisco has already said he's running for Kirsten Gillibrand's House seat--and he has the Saratoga County endorsement."

http://www.politickerny.com/1624/filling-gillibrands-seat-original-hope-photo

[Mr.Phips]

For now I'm willing to bet that Democrats keep this seat. Anyone wanna bet against me?

Yes, I will bet you $1000. 

[cinyc]

They'll just dismantle the district in 2010 anyway, so who cares?

I doubt the district will be dismantled in 2010.  2012 is more likely.

[Sam Spade]

The internal dynamics of this CD, who will likely be the nominees of the parties (I consider Liddle or Tedesco to be the most likely for the GOP, of those mentioned) and the way special elections tend to go in marginals would make me conclude that the GOP nominee is the favorite unless there is some ugly primary battle that extends beyond the primary.

[Verily]

The internal dynamics of this CD, who will likely be the nominees of the parties (I consider Liddle or Tedesco to be the most likely for the GOP, of those mentioned) and the way special elections tend to go in marginals would make me conclude that the GOP nominee is the favorite unless there is some ugly primary battle that extends beyond the primary.

The dangers of an ugly primary are pretty high, though. State Senators suddenly in the permanent minority want out and aren't going to just give in to Tedisco, who is nonetheless the favorite.

[Eraserhead]

I think that we probably keep the seat, in the end.

[Hash]

I think the Democrats will hold the seat, too.

[Lunar]

I think this is a GOP pickup as of now, until we find out who the parties nominate.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0109/Growing_field_for_Gillibrands_seat.html?showall

On the Democratic side, Carol Schrager, a Greene County attorney who worked for Gillibrand’s campaign and raised money for Hillary Clinton, announced her candidacy Friday. Also mentioned are Larry Bulman, a union official who doubles as Saratoga County Democratic chairman; Coxsackie Town Supervisor Alex Betke; and Mike Richter, a former New York Rangers goalie whose primary residence is in Connecticut but who owns a vacation home in the Adirondacks.

The Democratic and Republican nominees for the special election will be chosen by county party chairmen, who have weighted votes based on the party enrollments in their counties — and there are 10 counties in the 20th district.
The special election will be a significant first test for House Republicans, who are trying to quickly put behind memories of the last two dismal election cycles.  It would be a strong morale boost if Republicans could pick up a seat in a state where they only hold three of 31 Congressional seats.

They have reason for optimism, given the dearth of Democratic officeholders in the district and its GOP lean. But Republican operatives caution that the special election nominees are chosen by county party leaders, making it harder for the national party committee to land its favored candidate.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Any chance that one of the Republican hopefuls that doesn't get the nod is upset enough over the back room deals made with the county chairmen by the GOP nominee  to consider a third party run on the Conservative Party line?

[Lunar]

Any chance that one of the Republican hopefuls that doesn't get the nod is upset enough over the back room deals made with the county chairmen by the GOP nominee  to consider a third party run on the Conservative Party line?

I don't know, but it would seem politically suicidal

[Verily]

Any chance that one of the Republican hopefuls that doesn't get the nod is upset enough over the back room deals made with the county chairmen by the GOP nominee  to consider a third party run on the Conservative Party line?

I don't know, but it would seem politically suicidal

If it's one of the State Senators, it's not unrealistic. At least assuming that they are conservative enough to run on the Conservative line in the first place (I'm not familiar with any of their politics). Being a Republican in the NY State Senate has become political suicide anyway--they won't win back control for years if not decades, and there are no statewide offices they could win.

[Sam Spade]

The big players who appear to be in the running would have little trouble getting the Conservative Party nod simply because they're not particularly liberal (on social issues for sure - i.e. pro-life, pro-gun).  In my mind, the concern would be more about Independence party hijinks.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wonder how the Bruno business might impact here; IIRC his district was mostly inside this one (unless I'm misremembering. Which is possible).

Anyway.

Fact is that this is a by-election in a marginal district. Which is far more of a concern for the Democrats than their weak bench here; Republican voters (or enough of them) will turn out no matter what because that's the way these things work (have a look at recent by-elections to state legislatures).

[muon2]

I think this is a GOP pickup as of now, until we find out who the parties nominate.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0109/Growing_field_for_Gillibrands_seat.html?showall

On the Democratic side, Carol Schrager, a Greene County attorney who worked for Gillibrand’s campaign and raised money for Hillary Clinton, announced her candidacy Friday. Also mentioned are Larry Bulman, a union official who doubles as Saratoga County Democratic chairman; Coxsackie Town Supervisor Alex Betke; and Mike Richter, a former New York Rangers goalie whose primary residence is in Connecticut but who owns a vacation home in the Adirondacks.

The Democratic and Republican nominees for the special election will be chosen by county party chairmen, who have weighted votes based on the party enrollments in their counties — and there are 10 counties in the 20th district.
The special election will be a significant first test for House Republicans, who are trying to quickly put behind memories of the last two dismal election cycles.  It would be a strong morale boost if Republicans could pick up a seat in a state where they only hold three of 31 Congressional seats.

They have reason for optimism, given the dearth of Democratic officeholders in the district and its GOP lean. But Republican operatives caution that the special election nominees are chosen by county party leaders, making it harder for the national party committee to land its favored candidate.

So I take it that there is no primary for the special election, unlike IL.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Demographic information (all %'s and all 2005-2007 ACS unless otherwise stated...) part one of two...

White 93.5
Black 2.7
Hisp. 2.7
Born abroad 4.0
Anglophone 94.1
Median Age 40 (compares with around 36 nationally)
Over 65 14.1 ('' '' 12.5 '' '')

With Degree 27.8 (pretty much bang on average)
Renting 25.1 (that's rather low)
Median home value $186,600 (about average)
Median hh income $54,941 (slightly above average)
Families in official poverty 5.4 (not far off half the national average)
Individuals in official poverty 8.5 (not quite ditto, but almost)

Note also that there's an unusually high number of vacant houses here, that household sizes are slightly smaller than average, that vet population is slightly higher than average and that the disabled population is basically average sized.