NY-20 Special Election

[Joe Republic]

... and that the disabled population is basically average sized.

Even those with no legs?  Surely they would be shorter than average?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Employment rate 60.9 (presumably somewhat lower now)
Managerial-Professional occupations 36.1
Office and etc occupations 24.3
Classic blue collar occupations - low order service sector jobs 38.8
Employed in Agriculture 1.9
Employed in Manufacturing 9.7
Employed in Education, Healthcare, etc (the largest industry group in the district, by miles) 24.2
Public sector workers 18.9
Uni students 5.8
Households on under $25k a year 20.1
Households on under $35k a year 30.7
Households on between $35k and $75k a year 35.0
Households on over $75k a year 34.8
Households on over $100k a year 20.3

Largest ancestry groups;

Irish 23.6
German 19.5
Italian 16.0
English 14.0
French-French Canadian 12.0

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

They'll just dismantle the district in 2010 anyway, so who cares?

Redistricting doesn't take effect until January 2013.

[Kevinstat]

Being a Republican in the NY State Senate has become political suicide anyway--they won't win back control for years if not decades, and there are no statewide offices they could win.

Not to mention that a lot of Republican State Senators are likely to be drawn in districts with other Republican State Senators for the 2012 elections.

How did the election for State Senate President Pro Tempore/Majority Leader go in New York, by the way?  Straight party-line vote for the outgoing (Democratic) Minority Leader?  Or was it unanimous as the Republicans knew the Democrat had the votes?  Or was someone other than the Democratic leader elected?  I remember reading right after the 2008 general election that four Democratic State Senators(-elect) hadn't committed to supporting their party's leader for the position.  Was there any power-sharing agreement, or just concessions to the threatening Democratic renegades to secure their support?

[Kevinstat]

I answered my own questions.  2007-2009 Senate Minority Leader Malcolm Smith was elected on January 6 as the Senate Majority Leader/Senate President Pro Tempore (the first African-American to hold that position according to Wikipedia), making him Senate President and acting Lieutenant Governor as the Lieutenant Governor position will be vacant in New York until 2011.  Concessions were made to three Democratic holdouts, although they seem smaller than the concessions which seemed to be imminent in early December when one of the renegades, a then-Senator-elect only no less, was to be made Senate Majority Leader as the position was to be severed from Senate President Pro Tempore.  Smith seemed non-bitter and focused on the future in answering questions about why it took so long to reach an agreement, however.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Remember everyone Obama won this seat.

OBAMA 4 U.S. HOUSE (AGAIN)

well you're right that that probably doesn't mean a whole lot, but it's not as if this is an R+20 seat in West Texas.

[Padfoot]

I'm going to go ahead and say this is a toss-up (something no seems to have mentioned yet somehow).  The nature of the district makes it nearly impossible to predict a "favorite" until we actually know who we're betting on.  Gillibrand was the right Democrat at the right time so there is every potential for the Democrats to nominate someone not as good.  However if the Republicans pick someone too far to the right then they'll probably lose.  The key will be playing to the middle so whichever candidate can do that the best will win.

[Lunar]

I think people need to remember that while special elections are unpredictable, they inherently favor the Republicans.  The higher the turnout the more the Democrats benefit (see the special elections in Georgia and Louisiana).  The lower the turnout, the better Republicans do.  How does this end up computing as a tossup?

So, you're taking an election in a slightly lean-Republican district (70k more Republicans) and it's a special election where Democratic turnout is going to depressed.  Kirsten may campaign heavily for the Dem and tilt the scales, but it'd be a surprise.

[Mr.Phips]

I think the only chance Democrats would have here is if they can convince hugely popular WNYT anchorwoman Benita Zahn to run. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think people need to remember that while special elections are unpredictable, they inherently favor the Republicans. 

And, more to the point, they almost always favour the party viewed as being the opposition party. That is why the Democrats should be worried about this seat.

[Lunar]

Tedisco is the GOP nominee

I think he's one of the better people they could have nominated.

[Joe Republic]

If the Republicans can pull this off, it'll bring their share of the New York congressional delegation to a whopping 12.9%.  Truly an overwhelming sight to behold.

[Sam Spade]

The only disadvantage Tedisco has is that he doesn't live in the CD for now (the Saratoga county part of his Assembly district is in CD-20, he resides and is from the Schenectady part of the AD).  Other than that, I've found him to be very articulate in the past in his news conferences.  We'll see.

[Lunar]

Saratoga County is the largest population base for NY-20 though, so I expect his geography to help him more than hurt him. 

[Sam Spade]

Saratoga County is the largest population base for NY-20 though, so I expect his geography to help him more than hurt him. 

Oh, I agree.  I just wanted to point out the disadvantage in what to me looks like a good pick for the GOP (if not entirely expected).

[Nicodeme Depape]

Saratoga County is the largest population base for NY-20 though, so I expect his geography to help him more than hurt him. 

Oh, I agree.  I just wanted to point out the disadvantage in what to me looks like a good pick for the GOP (if not entirely expected).

On a national level location matters. On an over all region for a statewide race [ upstate/downstate ] it can matter slightly. Do people really give a damn about counties? xD

[Ronnie]

When will be the actual election?

[Lunar]

When will be the actual election?

Paterson will soon set a date, probably like 40 days from now.

[Verily]

Saratoga County is the largest population base for NY-20 though, so I expect his geography to help him more than hurt him. 

Oh, I agree.  I just wanted to point out the disadvantage in what to me looks like a good pick for the GOP (if not entirely expected).

On a national level location matters. On an over all region for a statewide race [ upstate/downstate ] it can matter slightly. Do people really give a damn about counties? xD

"Carpetbagger from Schenectady" could work as a campaign strategy. With carpetbagger accusations, it can vary wildly depending on how well the non-carpetbagger candidate exploits it (and, to a lesser extent, on how well the carpetbagger responds to the charge).

[Nicodeme Depape]

This is my district, I'm simply hoping a Republican doesn't win. Please god no!

This should be the Dem slogan: Remember Sweeney!

[Brittain33]

"Carpetbagger from Schenectady" could work as a campaign strategy. With carpetbagger accusations, it can vary wildly depending on how well the non-carpetbagger candidate exploits it (and, to a lesser extent, on how well the carpetbagger responds to the charge).

This district is such a hodge-podge of counties from all over the state that I doubt many people know or care if Schenectady is in the district vs. anywhere else that a candidate could be from. I could see it having an impact in a primary where other R's want the guy defeated so they can win in the next round, but all the county committees did just agree to nominate him without a Bud Shuster-type situation, so he seems solid.

[Mr.Phips]

This is my district, I'm simply hoping a Republican doesn't win. Please god no!

This should be the Dem slogan: Remember Sweeney!

Then you better vote in the special. 

[Nicodeme Depape]

This is my district, I'm simply hoping a Republican doesn't win. Please god no!

This should be the Dem slogan: Remember Sweeney!

Then you better vote in the special. 

I can't, I'm 14. I did make phone calls for Hillary during the primary though, I could do that for the Dem nominee.

[Verily]

"Carpetbagger from Schenectady" could work as a campaign strategy. With carpetbagger accusations, it can vary wildly depending on how well the non-carpetbagger candidate exploits it (and, to a lesser extent, on how well the carpetbagger responds to the charge).

This district is such a hodge-podge of counties from all over the state that I doubt many people know or care if Schenectady is in the district vs. anywhere else that a candidate could be from. I could see it having an impact in a primary where other R's want the guy defeated so they can win in the next round, but all the county committees did just agree to nominate him without a Bud Shuster-type situation, so he seems solid.

All true. Although the district is much more cohesive than you suggest. It's the eastern Albany suburbs. It just happens to have some weird appendages south of Albany and stretching way up north.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Given that they pull in $79,500 a year, I'd be surprised to see a State Senator commit political suicide over a seat in the U.S. House.  Not exactly a good time to be looking for a new job, especially if you're a Republican in New York.