NY-20 Special Election

[cinyc]

You know that if Tedisco was leading by 65 votes, the media would just declare it for him now.

Nonsense.  It may be 59 votes, if you believe the CBS 6 Albany and WNYT Albany counts.

Why are the absentees expected to favor Murphy?

We don't know, Torie.  Anyone who claims they do is lying.  If the absentees more or less follow the actual vote and they're disproportionately from Greene or Saratoga counties, they probably favor Tedisco.  If they're disproportionately from Columbia, Essex, Warren or Washington counties, they probably favor Murphy.  

Bizarrely, Delaware and Greene Counties went different ways -  Murphy outperformed 2006 Gillibrand  in Delaware County but lagged in Greene.   Delaware County is in the Binghamton DMA while Greene is in the Albany DMA.  Maybe that had something to do with it?

Greene is in Tedisco's AD, I believe.

If you notice, Tedisco overperformed in his AD and underperformed worse the further you get away.  Murphy underperformed in Warren for some reason (home county).

Good point about Greene.

Underperformed versus what is the question.  Murphy did 1.95 points better in Warren County than Gillibrand in 2006 (which is what I've been using as a baseline).  Unless you have the County-by-CD stats, you can't directly compare Obama's performance in most counties because only parts of most counties are in the district (I'm not sure about Warren).  The worthless New York State Board of Elections site doesn't have that information.

Edit:  Tedisco's AD doesn't include any of Greene, just parts of Schenectady and Saratoga counties.

[SamInTheSouth]

All in but the absentees, recount and lawsuits:

Murphy 77,344   (50.02%)
Tedesco 77,279 (49.98%)

Murphy +65

Yes, that must be it for now. Hopefully the absentee ballots will favor Murphy, but it's not a done deal.

There can't be more than 200 overseas military voters ...

Why are the absentees expected to favor Murphy?

They are assuming they are military ballots, which typically lean heavily Republican.

[Sam Spade]

You know that if Tedisco was leading by 65 votes, the media would just declare it for him now.

Nonsense.  It may be 59 votes, if you believe the CBS 6 Albany and WNYT Albany counts.

Why are the absentees expected to favor Murphy?

We don't know, Torie.  Anyone who claims they do is lying.  If the absentees more or less follow the actual vote and they're disproportionately from Greene or Saratoga counties, they probably favor Tedisco.  If they're disproportionately from Columbia, Essex, Warren or Washington counties, they probably favor Murphy.  

Bizarrely, Delaware and Greene Counties went different ways -  Murphy outperformed 2006 Gillibrand  in Delaware County but lagged in Greene.   Delaware County is in the Binghamton DMA while Greene is in the Albany DMA.  Maybe that had something to do with it?

Greene is in Tedisco's AD, I believe.

If you notice, Tedisco overperformed in his AD and underperformed worse the further you get away.  Murphy underperformed in Warren for some reason (home county).

Good point about Greene.

Underperformed versus what is the question.  Murphy did 1.95 points better in Warren County than Gillibrand in 2006 (which is what I've been using as a baseline).  Unless you have the County-by-CD stats, you can't directly compare Obama's performance in most counties because only parts of most counties are in the district (I'm not sure about Warren).  The worthless New York State Board of Elections site doesn't have that information.

Warren is Murphy's home county - henceforth my point that I'm surprised he didn't perform better there.

[Person Man]

All in but the absentees, recount and lawsuits:

Murphy 77,344   (50.02%)
Tedesco 77,279 (49.98%)

Murphy +65

Yes, that must be it for now. Hopefully the absentee ballots will favor Murphy, but it's not a done deal.

There can't be more than 200 overseas military voters ...

Why are the absentees expected to favor Murphy?

They are assuming they are military ballots, which typically lean heavily Republican.

200 military ballots- that would mean that Tedesco would need to win by a margin of about 66-33. That's a tall order- even from the military. I am guessing it will be more like a 40 vote gain for Tedesco....making him 20 votes short..

[Alcon]

Provisionals, too.  I imagine that provisionals will essentially cancel out military absentees, and we'll be left at square one.

[CARLHAYDEN]

All in but the absentees, recount and lawsuits:

Murphy 77,344   (50.02%)
Tedesco 77,279 (49.98%)

Murphy +65

Yes, that must be it for now. Hopefully the absentee ballots will favor Murphy, but it's not a done deal.

There can't be more than 200 overseas military voters ...

Why are the absentees expected to favor Murphy?

They are assuming they are military ballots, which typically lean heavily Republican.

200 military ballots- that would mean that Tedesco would need to win by a margin of about 66-33. That's a tall order- even from the military. I am guessing it will be more like a 40 vote gain for Tedesco....making him 20 votes short..

Sorry Weasel, but,

To his credit, Lunar correctly noted that 5,907 absentee votes have already been received, and a few more (primarily military) should be added.

So, approximately 6,000 absentee votes yet to be counted.

[Zarn]

Right, there is about 6,000 received. At the same, there is potential for another 4,000 votes that may or may not have been sent.

[cinyc]

A chart:

County	Murphy %	2006  D% Change	County Turnout vs 2006
Columbia	56.31%	-2.01%	64.49%
Delaware	49.81%	3.74%	53.12%
Dutchess	51.57%	-3.58%	58.06%
Essex	55.29%	1.75%	50.77%
Greene	44.68%	-3.22%	60.10%
Ostego	48.76%	-3.80%	52.33%
Rensselaer	48.53%	-4.83%	63.96%
Saratoga	46.07%	-6.53%	72.71%
Warren	55.75%	1.92%	67.68%
Washington	56.03%	2.88%	69.86%
Total	50.02%	-3.08%	65.60%

Before counting absentees, the greatest percentage of ballots cast versus the 2006 off-year election number was in Saratoga County, home to part of Tedisco's Assembly district.  It was one of Tedisco's best counties (along with Greene), and the one with the most improvement from Sweeney in 2006.

Turnout was lowest, relatively speaking, in rural Essex, Ostego, Delaware and Dutchess counties.  The lowest turnout tended to be in pro-Murphy or marginal counties.   If the absentees are from there, Murphy should pull this out. 

[Eraserhead]

This is going to go on forever. Get ready.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The lowest turnout tended to be in pro-Murphy or marginal counties.

Well isn't that suspicious.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is going to go on forever. Get ready.

Me and you will have something in common!

[Eraserhead]

This is going to go on forever. Get ready.

Me and you will have something in common!

Haha, we already have a few things in common but that's true.

[cinyc]

The lowest turnout tended to be in pro-Murphy or marginal counties.

Well isn't that suspicious.

Not really.  All 4 of those counties are at the fringes of NY-20, with 3 of the 4 lowest-turnout counties (Delaware, Dutchess, Essex) actually outside of the Albany DMA (TV market), and Ostego only marginally inside it.  They may not have been as innundated with ads were they watching New York, Binghamton, Utica, Syracuse or Burlington/Plattsburgh TV stations instead of the network stations from Albany.

[cinyc]

This is going to go on forever. Get ready.

Me and you will have something in common!

You have 6 years left for a fight.  This can go on for a maximum of 21 months until the next general election.

[Marokai Backbeat]

This is going to go on forever. Get ready.

Me and you will have something in common!

You have 6 years left for a fight.  This can go on for a maximum of 21 months until the next general election.

Which would give the Republicans a very easy way to freeze a Democrat out until the 2010 elections should Murphy look like he's going to win.

[Smash255]

This is going to go on forever. Get ready.

Me and you will have something in common!

You have 6 years left for a fight.  This can go on for a maximum of 21 months until the next general election.

Which would give the Republicans a very easy way to freeze a Democrat out until the 2010 elections should Murphy look like he's going to win.

The difference is the lack of filibuster in this case.  The GOP doesn't get much out of holding this seat up, the Dems majority in the House is large enough that really nothing will come down to one vote.  On the other hand with the Minnesota seat, Fraken being seated makes it easier for the Dems to get past any filibuster attempts by the GOP.

[cinyc]

This is going to go on forever. Get ready.

Me and you will have something in common!

You have 6 years left for a fight.  This can go on for a maximum of 21 months until the next general election.

Which would give the Republicans a very easy way to freeze a Democrat out until the 2010 elections should Murphy look like he's going to win.

Downstate, we still voted on the 50-year-old mechanical lever machines in the 2008 elections.  There are no hanging chads or dangling chads or half-filled circles to interpret. 

New York was supposed to replace those machines soon.  Did they by this election?   I don't know - but Eraserhead should, since he voted.  If they didn't, there won't be as much to argue over as there was in Minnesota.  Voter intent is clear with the lever machines.  They either registered a vote or didn't.

I doubt this will drag on for more than a few months.

[Sam Spade]

Good question - was it lever voting upstate?  Because there won't be much argument, if so - I'm with cinyc there.  It's pretty clear. 

I actually hope they never replace the things.

[cinyc]

Good question - was it lever voting upstate?  Because there won't be much argument, if so - I'm with cinyc there.  It's pretty clear. 

I actually hope they never replace the things.

It looks like Murphy did:

[Tender Branson]

All in but the absentees, recount and lawsuits:

Murphy 77,344   (50.02%)
Tedesco 77,279 (49.98%)

Murphy +65

Yes, that must be it for now. Hopefully the absentee ballots will favor Murphy, but it's not a done deal.

There can't be more than 200 overseas military voters ...

Why are the absentees expected to favor Murphy?

They are assuming they are military ballots, which typically lean heavily Republican.

200 military ballots- that would mean that Tedesco would need to win by a margin of about 66-33. That's a tall order- even from the military. I am guessing it will be more like a 40 vote gain for Tedesco....making him 20 votes short..

a) I didn't say that absentee ballots will favor Murphy, I hope they do.

b) 200 overseas ballots is a rough guess, unless there's a military base in NY-20. Considering that about 300.000-400.000 US soldiers are currently overseas, it'd be 1/1000 of all NY-20 voters, which of course would be around 200 overseas voters in a 160.000 turnout.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Does anyone know the breakdown between precinct and absentee voters in 2008 in the 20th Congressional District for President?

That should give us an approximation of the breakout of the absentee vote.

[cinyc]

Does anyone know the breakdown between precinct and absentee voters in 2008 in the 20th Congressional District for President?

That should give us an approximation of the breakout of the absentee vote.

I don't think New York keeps that data.  I looked at the 2006 and 2008 official Saratoga County results, and there are no special precincts for absentees.  The best you could do is to try to compare the election day and final official tallies, if you can find the former somewhere. 

We do know that there are at least 6,000 and up to 10,000 outstanding absentees.  We don't have a county-by-county breakdown - yet.

Because the NY-20 boundaries don't match county lines (and New York doesn't keep Presidential election by county by CD data), direct comparisons to the 2008 Presidential results in those counties would be difficult - and perhaps misleading.  To be accurate, you'd have to recreate the CD data from precinct level data.  We may have that here somewhere.  I've been comparing results to the close 2006 NY-20 off-year election, since turnout was about half of the 2008 election so far (without absentees).

[Tender Branson]

Newsmax notes that out of the 10.055 absentee ballots that were issued, 1.800 went to "military service personnel and other citizens living abroad".

http://www.newsmax.com/headlines/tedisco_challenge_race/2009/03/31/198170.html

[cinyc]

Newsmax notes that out of the 10.055 absentee ballots that were issued, 1.800 went to "military service personnel and other citizens living abroad".

http://www.newsmax.com/headlines/tedisco_challenge_race/2009/03/31/198170.html

Thanks - but consider the source.

[minionofmidas]

Entertaining.