NY-20 Special Election

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I want to see what Nate Silver (peace be upon him) projects.

[cinyc]

The projections -- based off of the county performances by Murphy and state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco (R) on election night -- show the Democrat gaining 115 votes in Warren County, 96 votes in Columbia County and 70 votes in Washington County as well as scoring smaller gains in several other counties. Tedisco's only major gain, according to the model, will be in Saratoga County where he will net an additional 116 votes.

The Democratic projection puts the total number of absentee and military ballots at 5,584 with Murphy winning 2,864 and Tedisco taking 2,720. On election night, Murphy held a 65-vote lead -- 77,344 to 77,279.

Republicans insist that any such "projections" are not an appropriate gauge of what the eventual universe of absentee ballots will look like.

I'd love to see that model.  Even the number of absentee ballots cast doesn't match what we actually know about the number of absentees that have already come in - it's higher.

[Franzl]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

[Rowan]

Let's do some math, shall we? Number of absentees submitted by party:

Democrat: 2,105

Republican: 2,863

Other: 904(includes Independents, Conservative Party, Independence Party, Working Families party)

Let's say Tedisco wins 70% of the Rep vote(reasonable), and Murphy gets 90% of the Dem vote(reasonable), and the "other" splits 50/50(again reasonable), Tedisco wins by 100 votes.

[cinyc]

The unofficial numbers have been revised after Columbia County rechecked the machines (supposedly).   It's down to Murphy +25:

Murphy 77,217
Tedisco 77,192

Edit: The 6-vote difference from the AP and Saratogian/my tally yesterday was from 6 extra Tedisco votes in Delaware County.  That's been reflected in the updated Saratogian numbers.

[cinyc]

Let's do some math, shall we? Number of absentees submitted by party:

Democrat: 2,105

Republican: 2,863

Other: 904(includes Independents, Conservative Party, Independence Party, Working Families party)

Let's say Tedisco wins 70% of the Rep vote(reasonable), and Murphy gets 90% of the Dem vote(reasonable), and the "other" splits 50/50(again reasonable), Tedisco wins by 100 votes.

Where did you get those absentee numbers?

[Rowan]

Let's do some math, shall we? Number of absentees submitted by party:

Democrat: 2,105

Republican: 2,863

Other: 904(includes Independents, Conservative Party, Independence Party, Working Families party)

Let's say Tedisco wins 70% of the Rep vote(reasonable), and Murphy gets 90% of the Dem vote(reasonable), and the "other" splits 50/50(again reasonable), Tedisco wins by 100 votes.

Where did you get those absentee numbers?

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2Q1MjdiOGQ2NTAyNGZmOTAyM2E5NGNhODkzZTg2NzE=

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let's do some math, shall we? Number of absentees submitted by party:

Democrat: 2,105

Republican: 2,863

Other: 904(includes Independents, Conservative Party, Independence Party, Working Families party)

Let's say Tedisco wins 70% of the Rep vote(reasonable), and Murphy gets 90% of the Dem vote(reasonable), and the "other" splits 50/50(again reasonable), Tedisco wins by 100 votes.

But a hundred votes is practically nowt when over a hundred thousand have been cast in total.

[Rowan]

Let's do some math, shall we? Number of absentees submitted by party:

Democrat: 2,105

Republican: 2,863

Other: 904(includes Independents, Conservative Party, Independence Party, Working Families party)

Let's say Tedisco wins 70% of the Rep vote(reasonable), and Murphy gets 90% of the Dem vote(reasonable), and the "other" splits 50/50(again reasonable), Tedisco wins by 100 votes.

But a hundred votes is practically nowt when over a hundred thousand have been cast in total.

He would win though. That's my point.

[Lunar]

Let's do some math, shall we? Number of absentees submitted by party:

Democrat: 2,105

Republican: 2,863

Other: 904(includes Independents, Conservative Party, Independence Party, Working Families party)

Let's say Tedisco wins 70% of the Rep vote(reasonable), and Murphy gets 90% of the Dem vote(reasonable), and the "other" splits 50/50(again reasonable), Tedisco wins by 100 votes.

That's reasonable, but it's just a fucking mindless guess as to what the breakdown will be.  Those numbers could easily be adjusted to other reasonable numbers that would show Murphy gaining.  If we're using the district as a  base, Murphy did better among Independents.  Remember that Murphy ended up winning on election night despite the fact that far more Republican ballots were cast than Democratic ones.

[Lunar]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

No, Tedisco will win.

[Rowan]

Let's do some math, shall we? Number of absentees submitted by party:

Democrat: 2,105

Republican: 2,863

Other: 904(includes Independents, Conservative Party, Independence Party, Working Families party)

Let's say Tedisco wins 70% of the Rep vote(reasonable), and Murphy gets 90% of the Dem vote(reasonable), and the "other" splits 50/50(again reasonable), Tedisco wins by 100 votes.

That's reasonable, but it's just a fucking mindless guess as to what the breakdown will be.  Those numbers could easily be adjusted to other reasonable numbers that would show Murphy gaining.  If we're using the district as a  base, Murphy did better among Independents.  Remember that Murphy ended up winning on election night despite the fact that far more Republican ballots were cast than Democratic ones.

How do we know Murphy did better among Independents? There's no confirmation of that. No exit polls were taken.

[Lunar]

Well, we do have normal polls, which count for something (exit polls are flawed too).  And we have the raw facts on the ground that the Republicans enjoy a significant registration advantage.

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that Murphy likely won Independents, either that, or did freakishly well among Republicans.  Either way, your assumptions about what leads to a narrow Tedisco win, while reasonable, aren't the only reasonable prediction out there.  I could slightly adjust your numbers to something else "reasonable" and Murphy would end up winning.  To just make a random crapshoot guess and then declare flatly that "Tedisco will win" is an exercise is ridiculousness

[Franzl]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

[Rowan]

Well, we do have normal polls, which count for something (exit polls are flawed too).  And we have the raw facts on the ground that the Republicans enjoy a significant registration advantage.

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that Murphy likely won Independents, either that, or did freakishly well among Republicans.  Either way, your assumptions about what leads to a narrow Tedisco win, while reasonable, aren't the only reasonable prediction out there.  I could slightly adjust your numbers to something else "reasonable" and Murphy would end up winning.  To just make a random crapshoot guess and then declare flatly that "Tedisco will win" is an exercise is ridiculousness

I didn't say he will win, I said using that projection he would win by 100 votes. Also the Siena poll had Tedisco up 45-44 among Independents...

[cinyc]

But a hundred votes is practically nowt when over a hundred thousand have been cast in total.

All Murphy or Tedisco needs to do is win by 1 vote.  Winning by 100 votes would be gravy.

[Lunar]

Ok I misinterpreted your post where you said "Tedisco would win though, that's my point."

Fair enough.  Tedisco clearly can still win this and I don't think anyone's disputing that.  Hell, I think he's slightly favored depending on how aggressively the Democratic machine encouraged absentee votes.

[Rowan]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

This isn't a recount. These are votes still needing to be counted. If Murphy's up when these ballots are counted than so be it.

[Lunar]

The projections -- based off of the county performances by Murphy and state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco (R) on election night -- show the Democrat gaining 115 votes in Warren County, 96 votes in Columbia County and 70 votes in Washington County as well as scoring smaller gains in several other counties. Tedisco's only major gain, according to the model, will be in Saratoga County where he will net an additional 116 votes.

The Democratic projection puts the total number of absentee and military ballots at 5,584 with Murphy winning 2,864 and Tedisco taking 2,720. On election night, Murphy held a 65-vote lead -- 77,344 to 77,279.

Republicans insist that any such "projections" are not an appropriate gauge of what the eventual universe of absentee ballots will look like.

I'd love to see that model.  Even the number of absentee ballots cast doesn't match what we actually know about the number of absentees that have already come in - it's higher.

"Democratic operatives have broken down the county-by-county distribution of the outstanding absentee ballots, and the party is assuming that the results from the absentee ballots will mirror the Election Night results. "

"The memo also says it can’t identify the county origins of some 300 ballots, another wild-card in the estimate."



http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0409/Democrats_project_Murphy_victory.html

[cinyc]

That's reasonable, but it's just a fucking mindless guess as to what the breakdown will be.  Those numbers could easily be adjusted to other reasonable numbers that would show Murphy gaining.  If we're using the district as a  base, Murphy did better among Independents.  Remember that Murphy ended up winning on election night despite the fact that far more Republican ballots were cast than Democratic ones.

I don't know how you could necessarily conclude Murphy did better among (small-I) independents or that more Republican ballots were cast than Democratic ones.  I've seen no turnout figures by party, and there was no exit poll.  For all we know, Democrats could have gotten more of their registered voters out than Republicans.  Registered Republicans aren't a majority in the district.

*- I say small-I independents because capital-I Independents could be construed to mean members of the Independence Party in New York.

[Franzl]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

This isn't a recount. These are votes still needing to be counted. If Murphy's up when these ballots are counted than so be it.

Now you're contradicting yourself.

You were complaining that Coleman's lead went down from 700 to 200 or something like that between election night and the begin of the recount, implying that such changes were not normal.

Now what if Tedisco jumps into the lead before the count is over? How is that different?

[Lunar]

They're not a majority in the absentee ballots either.  They have both a plurality in the district and a plurality of absentee ballots.  There are a lot of ways to guess at where the numbers go.

(I was wrong though when I implied that the latest Sienna poll showed Murphy doing better among Independents).  We just don't know, that's my point.  I think Tedisco is marginally favored until we find out more details about how aggressively Murphy's campaign pushed for absentee votes, so I'm not trying to shill for Murphy here, just trying to point out how ambiguous this is until we learn more.

[cinyc]

"Democratic operatives have broken down the county-by-county distribution of the outstanding absentee ballots, and the party is assuming that the results from the absentee ballots will mirror the Election Night results. "

"The memo also says it can’t identify the county origins of some 300 ballots, another wild-card in the estimate."



http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0409/Democrats_project_Murphy_victory.html

This mystery could probably be solved with 10 phone calls to the 10 county boards of elections.  I'm surprised nobody in the media has bothered to do that yet.

[Alcon]

Affidavit (provisional) ballots, too, folks!  I have no idea why the media is totally ignoring them.

[Lunar]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

This isn't a recount. These are votes still needing to be counted. If Murphy's up when these ballots are counted than so be it.

Now you're contradicting yourself.

You were complaining that Coleman's lead went down from 700 to 200 or something like that between election night and the begin of the recount, implying that such changes were not normal.

Now what if Tedisco jumps into the lead before the count is over? How is that different?

UH OH, Murphy's lead has shrunk since election day from 65 to 25.  Someone must have STOLEN THE ELECTION