NY-20 Special Election

[Zarn]

Then they have done a poor job of it, since Tedisco still doesn't have the lead.

[Rowan]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

This isn't a recount. These are votes still needing to be counted. If Murphy's up when these ballots are counted than so be it.

Now you're contradicting yourself.

You were complaining that Coleman's lead went down from 700 to 200 or something like that between election night and the begin of the recount, implying that such changes were not normal.

Now what if Tedisco jumps into the lead before the count is over? How is that different?

I never said anything about that part of the count. Maybe someone else did, but I didn't. What I objected to was the actual recount portion.

[Franzl]

I apologize then, but what you said then, assuming that you believe Coleman was leading by 700 before the recount, is simply incorrect:

Actually, I believe Mr. McCain should seek a recount in Virginia.

After all, he was leading the first couple of hours (until NoVa came in).

That must mean he actually won Virginia!

No, thats not my point. What I am saying is that Coleman was up by over 700 votes with 100% precints reporting. Franken's lead only came after a recount that was questionable at best.

That was your statement. The fact is, though, that Coleman was leading by much less by the time the intial count had been completed. I believe it was by about 200-250 votes. The recount changed a 200 vote lead to about the same for Franken. That's a really small shift....about 0.02%.

But the point stands. Going into the recount, Coleman was not leading by 700 votes.
I don't have the time or energy right now to find a source for that, but I'm sure somebody here will agree with me. (Lunar hopefully)

[You kip if you want to...]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

This isn't a recount. These are votes still needing to be counted. If Murphy's up when these ballots are counted than so be it.

Now you're contradicting yourself.

You were complaining that Coleman's lead went down from 700 to 200 or something like that between election night and the begin of the recount, implying that such changes were not normal.

Now what if Tedisco jumps into the lead before the count is over? How is that different?

UH OH, Murphy's lead has shrunk since election day from 65 to 25.  Someone must have STOLEN THE ELECTION

And now from 25 to 13. I think it'll end up going to Tedisco

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[Franzl]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

This isn't a recount. These are votes still needing to be counted. If Murphy's up when these ballots are counted than so be it.

Now you're contradicting yourself.

You were complaining that Coleman's lead went down from 700 to 200 or something like that between election night and the begin of the recount, implying that such changes were not normal.

Now what if Tedisco jumps into the lead before the count is over? How is that different?

UH OH, Murphy's lead has shrunk since election day from 65 to 25.  Someone must have STOLEN THE ELECTION

And now from 25 to 13. I think it'll end up going to Tedisco

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That's impossible. Murphy was leading on election night!! Even though the margin is 13 votes, Tedisco needs to concede....that would be the honorable thing to do! After all, the tally on election night is always final and can never be wrong!

[Mr.Phips]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

This isn't a recount. These are votes still needing to be counted. If Murphy's up when these ballots are counted than so be it.

Now you're contradicting yourself.

You were complaining that Coleman's lead went down from 700 to 200 or something like that between election night and the begin of the recount, implying that such changes were not normal.

Now what if Tedisco jumps into the lead before the count is over? How is that different?

UH OH, Murphy's lead has shrunk since election day from 65 to 25.  Someone must have STOLEN THE ELECTION

And now from 25 to 13. I think it'll end up going to Tedisco

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There is a good chance the Democratic House wont seat Tedisco if it appears to be this close.  The Republicans control the machinery here and this is not an election that Democrats are just going to let go of. 

[Eraserhead]

Wow, now I'm really pissed that my brother didn't vote.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Let's look at the remaining ballots outstanding:

First, Alcon notes that provisional ballots have yet to be counted.  However, the percentage of provisional ballots is significantly less in special elections than in general elections, and signficantly less in suburban/rural areas than in major metropolitan areas.  Generally provisional ballots tend to favor the Democrat, but I doubt they are numerous in this case.

Second, generally speaking the lower the percentage of the total vote that are absentee ballots, the better the results for the Republican candidate.  In this case, absentee ballots are likely to account for about five per cent of the total vote.

Third, military absentee ballots can come in even latter than other absentee ballots (and still be valid).  For the past generation such ballots have historically generally favored the Republican candidate.

Given the closeness of the polling place vote, this bodes ill for Murphy and the Democrats.

However, Murphy and the Democrats should count their blessings that Tedisco and the Republicans ran such an inept campaign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But a hundred votes is practically nowt when over a hundred thousand have been cast in total.

All Murphy or Tedisco needs to do is win by 1 vote.  Winning by 100 votes would be gravy.

Not my point though. More a question of, er, margin of error.

[Zarn]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

This isn't a recount. These are votes still needing to be counted. If Murphy's up when these ballots are counted than so be it.

Now you're contradicting yourself.

You were complaining that Coleman's lead went down from 700 to 200 or something like that between election night and the begin of the recount, implying that such changes were not normal.

Now what if Tedisco jumps into the lead before the count is over? How is that different?

UH OH, Murphy's lead has shrunk since election day from 65 to 25.  Someone must have STOLEN THE ELECTION

And now from 25 to 13. I think it'll end up going to Tedisco

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That's impossible. Murphy was leading on election night!! Even though the margin is 13 votes, Tedisco needs to concede....that would be the honorable thing to do! After all, the tally on election night is always final and can never be wrong!

Just because you don't get along with some people, due to MN, it doesn't mean that you should lash at all Republicans. I know you are joking, but I would appreciate it, if you could tone is down a notch.

If you want me to do the same with a Republican or Republican leaning voter, I would be more than happy to do so.

[CARLHAYDEN]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

This isn't a recount. These are votes still needing to be counted. If Murphy's up when these ballots are counted than so be it.

Now you're contradicting yourself.

You were complaining that Coleman's lead went down from 700 to 200 or something like that between election night and the begin of the recount, implying that such changes were not normal.

Now what if Tedisco jumps into the lead before the count is over? How is that different?

UH OH, Murphy's lead has shrunk since election day from 65 to 25.  Someone must have STOLEN THE ELECTION

And now from 25 to 13. I think it'll end up going to Tedisco

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's impossible. Murphy was leading on election night!! Even though the margin is 13 votes, Tedisco needs to concede....that would be the honorable thing to do! After all, the tally on election night is always final and can never be wrong!

Uh, has Lunar loaned you his crack pipe?

[cinyc]

The Republicans control the machinery here and this is not an election that Democrats are just going to let go of. 

Nonsense.  No one party controls the "machinery" (i.e. the county and state boards of election) in New York.  County boards are comprised of two commissioners - one Republican and one Democrat.  Somebody posted the process by which questionable votes will be counted further up the thread.  It's completely nonpartisan.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Nonsense.  No one party controls the "machinery" (i.e. the county and state boards of election) in New York.

Then how do you explain what happened in '94?

[cinyc]

Nonsense.  No one party controls the "machinery" (i.e. the county and state boards of election) in New York.

Then how do you explain what happened in '94?

What happened in 1994?

And last I checked, it's not 1994.

[Mr.Phips]

Nonsense.  No one party controls the "machinery" (i.e. the county and state boards of election) in New York.

Then how do you explain what happened in '94?

A lot of the races in 1994 were not that close and the ones that were, Democrats generally won. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Nonsense.  No one party controls the "machinery" (i.e. the county and state boards of election) in New York.

Then how do you explain what happened in '94?

A lot of the races in 1994 were not that close and the ones that were, Democrats generally won. 

Um??? In 1994???

[cinyc]

Nonsense.  No one party controls the "machinery" (i.e. the county and state boards of election) in New York.

Then how do you explain what happened in '94?

A lot of the races in 1994 were not that close and the ones that were, Democrats generally won. 

I have no idea what either of you are talking about, particularly as it relates to New York politics.  It was an off-election year where Republicans won a lot of House seats and Pataki moved into the governor's mansion in Albany.  So what?

[Mr.Phips]

Nonsense.  No one party controls the "machinery" (i.e. the county and state boards of election) in New York.

Then how do you explain what happened in '94?

A lot of the races in 1994 were not that close and the ones that were, Democrats generally won. 

Um??? In 1994???

Almost every race that was decided by less than 1000 votes went to the Democrat in 1994.

[Lunar]

As a dark reminder, if the election somehow manages to be disputed, remember what Pelosi can do.

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I don't think the Democrats would do this, but it's an outside, outside possibility.

http://www.politickerny.com/2863/what-now-murphy-tedisco

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[© tweed]

does the coin-flip nature of this ensure that the loser will run again in 2010?

[Marokai Backbeat]

The Democrats would be far, far too spineless to do something so bold, Lunar.

[Smash255]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

This isn't a recount. These are votes still needing to be counted. If Murphy's up when these ballots are counted than so be it.

Now you're contradicting yourself.

You were complaining that Coleman's lead went down from 700 to 200 or something like that between election night and the begin of the recount, implying that such changes were not normal.

Now what if Tedisco jumps into the lead before the count is over? How is that different?

UH OH, Murphy's lead has shrunk since election day from 65 to 25.  Someone must have STOLEN THE ELECTION

And now from 25 to 13. I think it'll end up going to Tedisco

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's impossible. Murphy was leading on election night!! Even though the margin is 13 votes, Tedisco needs to concede....that would be the honorable thing to do! After all, the tally on election night is always final and can never be wrong!

Uh, has Lunar loaned you his crack pipe?

Its a joke aimed at Rowan based off his comments on the Minnesota race...

[cinyc]

does the coin-flip nature of this ensure that the loser will run again in 2010?

Not necessarily.  There are other Democrats (and perhaps even Republicans) waiting in the wings.  

Edit: I say "perhaps" Republicans because New York will likely lose a seat in 2012, and this district is most likely to go out of existence.  Since Democrats are likely to control both houses and probably even the governor's mansion when new lines are drawn, whatever is drawn in that area will likely favor Democrats.

[cinyc]

More on the outstanding absentees, from the Albany Times Union's Capitol Confidential Blog:



Edit: If the currently in absentees break as the counties voted, Murphy would lead by 158.  That's without taking into account the military absentees.  I think they are included in the overall absentee numbers.  I haven't tried to specially allocate them.

[Landslide Lyndon]

More on the outstanding absentees, from the Albany Times Union's Capitol Confidential Blog:



Edit: If the currently in absentees break as the counties voted, Murphy would lead by 158.  That's without taking into account the military absentees.  I think they are included in the overall absentee numbers.  I haven't tried to specially allocate them.

So apparently the Democratic model was pretty accurate.

By the way...
I know about the Senate revote in New Hampshire in 1974.
But was there ever a House revote?