NY-20 Special Election

[cinyc]

So apparently the Democratic model was pretty accurate.

By the way...
I know about the Senate revote in New Hampshire in 1974.
But was there ever a House revote?

Only if you assume the absentees, including the overseas and military votes, will break exactly the same way as the county votes, and ignore the partisan makeup of the votes already in.  Maybe they will break the same way.  Maybe they won't.   Plus, we don't know the extent of the provisional ballots and where they are out from.   And we don't know which absentees will trickle in over the next few weeks.

The race is far too close to make any guess based on a blind projection of absentee votes.  We'll just have to wait and see.  If I had to predict, I'd put it as a slightly lean Murphy at this point.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So apparently the Democratic model was pretty accurate.

By the way...
I know about the Senate revote in New Hampshire in 1974.
But was there ever a House revote?

Only if you assume the absentees, including the overseas and military votes, will break exactly the same way as the county votes, and ignore the partisan makeup of the votes already in.  Maybe they will break the same way.  Maybe they won't.   Plus, we don't know the extent of the provisional ballots and where they are out from.   And we don't know which absentees will trickle in over the next few weeks.

The race is far too close to make any guess based on a blind projection of absentee votes.  We'll just have to wait and see.  If I had to predict, I'd put it as a slightly lean Murphy at this point.

They decided to take a shot based on the only hard numbers they have.  Can't blame them for that.

And the absentees are anyway a coin flip. Just look at what happened in Minnesota. Everybody expected that Franken would carry them, but not by such a large margin. 

[minionofmidas]

also note that some of Saratoga county has outdated touch screens


Fact 1: No one is currently in the lead.
Yes, Scott Murphy has a higher number on the AP's website. But I can not even stress to you how unofficial those numbers are. The process for gathering those numbers is riddled with potential errors:

Results are read off of machines by Person A to Person B who writes them down. Person B calls the BOE and reads - over the phone - the results to Person C at the BOE, who writes them down. Person C gives the sheet to person D who types them into a computer.

That's why you repeat the numbers back.

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That would be good. If it were done everywhere.

Here in Germany, the most common type of error seems to be switched columns.

[minionofmidas]

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They're critising dems for possibly stealing elections... *cough* 2000

you don't understand, that was perfectly legitimate, despite the conduct of the Sec of State's office, although Minnesota was clearly stolen even though the recount process was entirely neutral and transparant.

No, because it was neutral. You don't seem to understand that Republicans have a constitutional right to having all close contests resolved according to their whims because they win more counties and because America is a Republic, not a Democracy.

[minionofmidas]

New York state has registration by party. This allows us to see which absentee ballots are being returned by both parties.
There is currently a Republican advantage among the absentee and military ballots that exceed the current Murphy lead.
(...)Democrats have attempted to paint this election with a broad brush by simply pointing to the misleading voter registration numbers, but a closer look at the district does not legitimize the Democrats' faulty argument that this is a "Republican district."

lol.

[minionofmidas]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

This isn't a recount. These are votes still needing to be counted. If Murphy's up when these ballots are counted than so be it.

Now you're contradicting yourself.

You were complaining that Coleman's lead went down from 700 to 200 or something like that between election night and the begin of the recount, implying that such changes were not normal.

Now what if Tedisco jumps into the lead before the count is over? How is that different?

UH OH, Murphy's lead has shrunk since election day from 65 to 25.  Someone must have STOLEN THE ELECTION

And now from 25 to 13. I think it'll end up going to Tedisco

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That's impossible. Murphy was leading on election night!! Even though the margin is 13 votes, Tedisco needs to concede....that would be the honorable thing to do! After all, the tally on election night is always final and can never be wrong!

Uh, has Lunar loaned you his crack pipe?

Its a joke aimed at Rowan based off his comments on the Minnesota race...

Carl Hayden has levels of irony perception that would make Mr Spock laugh out loud. I don't know why. It's just something you need to learn to live with.

So apparently the Democratic model was pretty accurate.

No, apparently the cinyc used a model that was similar to the Democratic model.

[Lunar]

TEDISCO IS UP BY 12

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

TEDISCO IS UP BY 12

Isn't it Tedesco, Lunar? I have now seen it spelled both ways and right now thats the only thing I wan't to be known about this race. I could care less who wins this seat. Its booked for a one way train ticket to the dumpster in 2012. Plus I don't think having Tedesco in the House is a real benefit for the GOP. We have enough retarded people there already.

[Keystone Phil]

TEDISCO IS UP BY 12

Isn't it Tedesco, Lunar? I have now seen it spelled both ways and right now thats the only thing I wan't to be known about this race. I could care less who wins this seat. Its booked for a one way train ticket to the dumpster in 2012. Plus I don't think having Tedesco in the House is a real benefit for the GOP. We have enough retarded people there already.

No. "Tedesco" means "German" in Italian though. 

[cinyc]

According to politckerny, the changes came from Rensselaer and Dutchess recanvassing (i.e. double checking the machine count).   Rennselaer has more to recanvass.  One of the most Democrat-leaning counties in the district, Columbia County, has yet to recanvass.

In other news, the Albany Times-Union's Capitol Confidential blog reported the party-by-county breakdown of the absentees:



More grist for the mill, I suppose.  A slightly larger percentage (1.7 points) of Republican  absentees are in than the Democrat ones.  And the "others" in significantly lag the Republican and Democrat percentage in.  

[minionofmidas]

And the "others" in significantly lag the Republican and Democrat percentage in. 

That's probably the real news here.
It seems to signify that the absentee voters are more partisan, which *might* signify that Tedisco got a higher share of the Republican absentee vote than the Republican day vote, in which case he's favored to wins this. If that's not the case, Murphy's favored.

[cinyc]

And the "others" in significantly lag the Republican and Democrat percentage in. 

That's probably the real news here.
It seems to signify that the absentee voters are more partisan, which *might* signify that Tedisco got a higher share of the Republican absentee vote than the Republican day vote, in which case he's favored to wins this. If that's not the case, Murphy's favored.

On the other hand, although Republicans have about a 15-point voter registration advantage over Democrats districtwide, they only have a 13-point advantage over registered Democrats in the absentees returned thus far and 11-point advantage in absentees requested, suggesting the Democrat's get-out-the absentees effort was more effective.  But without an exit poll or hard data telling us the partisan breakdown of voters who went to the polls in the first place, it's hard to tell. 

On the other other hand, that Democrat advantage is largely due to the efforts of the Columbia County Democratic Machine (i.e. Gillibrand), which somehow managed to get a 31-point Democrat advantage in absentees even though Democrat and Republican enrollment is essentially even (D +0.1%).  And the Democrat advantage in Columbia was mitigated by a smaller Republican advantage in Saratoga (+4.5) and Rennselaer Counties (+3.6) - Tedisco's home turf, all suggesting that the absentee voters may be more partisan than general election voters after all.

On the other other other hand, a greater percentage of the absentees came from Columbia County and Murphy's home turf (Washington and Warren counties - where the extended Murphy clan has a number of registered Republican relatives) - than the percentage of the election-day vote.

Who knows?  For what it's worth, Michael Barone's analysis is here.

[minionofmidas]

Yah, it's a waiting game.

[Nym90]

Someone needs to go back and bump threads from Republicans declaring Buchanan the clear winner and Jennings's challenge a joke while now declaring Coleman's challenge and Franken not being seated as legitimate.

At least Jennings didn't object to seating Buchanan while the contest was sorted out. Likewise here, if Coleman and the GOP were willing to seat Franken now provisionally, they can go ahead and sue for the next 6 years to try to overturn it if they wish.

[You kip if you want to...]

TEDISCO IS UP BY 12

[Zarn]

Don't worry, he has a good chance to win by more.

[Purple State]

How can I keep track of the absentee voting?

[Zarn]

How can I keep track of the absentee voting?

I don't know, but maybe ACORN knows the results, already.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Someone needs to go back and bump threads from Republicans declaring Buchanan the clear winner and Jennings's challenge a joke while now declaring Coleman's challenge and Franken not being seated as legitimate.

At least Jennings didn't object to seating Buchanan while the contest was sorted out. Likewise here, if Coleman and the GOP were willing to seat Franken now provisionally, they can go ahead and sue for the next 6 years to try to overturn it if they wish.

Are you insinuating something?

[cinyc]

How can I keep track of the absentee voting?

The actual votes won't be counted until next week.  When the votes start to trickle in, the Albany Times-Union's Capitol Confidential blog and politickerny.com seem to be tracking the NY-20 race the closest.  Or you can call the State and/or County Boards of elections yourself and ask for updated totals, I guess.

[Rowan]

The Albany Project:

I'm hearing from a tipster in Washington County that, due to a reporting error on election night that has now been rectified, Scott Murphy just picked up a net of 198 votes. Says the tipster, the news "took the wind right out" of the Republican observers.

There's still thousands of absentee votes to count, but the bigger the cushion Murphy has before then the better.

This is huge news.

http://www.thealbanyproject.com/diary/6198/ny20-wow-murphy-picks-up-198-votes-in-washington-county

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Albany Project:

I'm hearing from a tipster in Washington County that, due to a reporting error on election night that has now been rectified, Scott Murphy just picked up a net of 198 votes. Says the tipster, the news "took the wind right out" of the Republican observers.

There's still thousands of absentee votes to count, but the bigger the cushion Murphy has before then the better.

This is huge news.

http://www.thealbanyproject.com/diary/6198/ny20-wow-murphy-picks-up-198-votes-in-washington-county

I think it's about time for Disco Duck to concede then.

[Lunar]

http://www.dailygazette.com/news/2009/apr/03/0403_deadheat/

IT'S A 77,225-77,225 TIE RIGHT NOW OMG OMG OMG

[cinyc]

The Albany Project:

I'm hearing from a tipster in Washington County that, due to a reporting error on election night that has now been rectified, Scott Murphy just picked up a net of 198 votes. Says the tipster, the news "took the wind right out" of the Republican observers.

There's still thousands of absentee votes to count, but the bigger the cushion Murphy has before then the better.

This is huge news.

http://www.thealbanyproject.com/diary/6198/ny20-wow-murphy-picks-up-198-votes-in-washington-county

If true, yes.

The NYS Board of Elections has the race officially unofficially tied.  Literally.

[minionofmidas]

I hope it stays tied.