NY-20 Special Election
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Author Topic: NY-20 Special Election  (Read 178432 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #725 on: April 03, 2009, 04:10:46 PM »


Boy, wouldn't Tedisco feel stupid then?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #726 on: April 03, 2009, 04:15:51 PM »

Right, I didn't even think about that part.

Then again, so would Eraser's brother so it cancels out.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #727 on: April 03, 2009, 04:27:56 PM »


Stupid question: what happens then?
Is the winner decided by tossing a coin?
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cinyc
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« Reply #728 on: April 03, 2009, 04:28:15 PM »
« Edited: April 03, 2009, 04:45:11 PM by cinyc »


Only if he loses the game of chance that would decide his fate under New York law (IIRC).

Edit: that was in a village election.  I don't see a provision about what to do for a tie in a federal election.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #729 on: April 03, 2009, 04:29:22 PM »

wtf
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Rowan
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« Reply #730 on: April 03, 2009, 04:32:08 PM »

Confirmed. Murphy gains 198.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04/murphy-picks-up-198-votes-as-county-fixes-errors.php
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #731 on: April 03, 2009, 04:33:41 PM »

How much remains to canvass?
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Rowan
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« Reply #732 on: April 03, 2009, 04:35:20 PM »


A few more counties are still canvassing including the rest of Columbia where Murphy gained the 198. Saratoga still has to recanvass so maybe there is a big chunk of Tedisco votes out there somewhere.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #733 on: April 03, 2009, 04:40:17 PM »


A few more counties are still canvassing including the rest of Columbia where Murphy gained the 198. Saratoga still has to recanvass so maybe there is a big chunk of Tedisco votes out there somewhere.
Canvassing errors should be normally distributed, with no correlation (once you got a large enough sample) of whom they favor and who does best in a county.
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cinyc
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« Reply #734 on: April 03, 2009, 04:50:13 PM »


A few more counties are still canvassing including the rest of Columbia where Murphy gained the 198. Saratoga still has to recanvass so maybe there is a big chunk of Tedisco votes out there somewhere.
Canvassing errors should be normally distributed, with no correlation (once you got a large enough sample) of whom they favor and who does best in a county.

If it's 198 votes, we're talking about .13% of the total outstanding votes.  Hardly an inconceivable error and hardly insurmountable by Tedisco or Murphy based on the outstanding absentees under either man's best theory of allocating the unknowable absentees.

Registered Republicans returned more than 198 absentees than registered democrats, and the county breakdown of all the absentees requested could favor Murphy by 200 or so.
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cinyc
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« Reply #735 on: April 03, 2009, 06:01:06 PM »
« Edited: April 03, 2009, 06:03:49 PM by cinyc »

Tedisco's camp told politickerny.com that Tedisco gained 228 votes in the Saratoga county recanvass, which will put them back up by 30, FWIW. 

We'll have to wait and see - especially since the Washington County recanvass may not be complete.

Meanwhile, Capitol Confidential has the revised absentee breakdown.  6,693 absentees are now in.  I can't give the R vs. D breakdown because Saratoga didn't report the breakdown of theirs.  But without updating  for Saratoga, the registered R advantage for returned absentees is down to 10.89 points over the Dems (3.89 points below the R county registration advantage).  And more of the non-D or R absentees came in, particularly in Columbia County.

Remember - New York has minor parties, particularly the Independence, Conservative and Working Families Parties.  Some of the "other" absentees can be from party members.   The Independence and Working Families parties endorsed Murphy; the Conservatives Tedisco.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #736 on: April 03, 2009, 06:05:19 PM »

Smiley
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cinyc
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« Reply #737 on: April 03, 2009, 06:49:51 PM »

Here's the absentee ballots received breakdown as of 3:50PM today, courtesy off the NYS Board of Elections:



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« Reply #738 on: April 04, 2009, 02:34:20 PM »

This one is going to be a squeaker, but the odds are definitely against a tie.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #739 on: April 04, 2009, 02:45:51 PM »

This one is going to be a squeaker, but the odds are definitely against a tie.

     A tie would be awesome, though sadly unlikely. Tongue
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change08
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« Reply #740 on: April 05, 2009, 12:09:46 PM »

This one is going to be a squeaker, but the odds are definitely against a tie.

     A tie would be awesome, though sadly unlikely. Tongue

Governor Paterson's handling of a tie would be funny.
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cinyc
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« Reply #741 on: April 05, 2009, 02:13:08 PM »

This one is going to be a squeaker, but the odds are definitely against a tie.

     A tie would be awesome, though sadly unlikely. Tongue

Governor Paterson's handling of a tie would be funny.

Fortunately, I don't think he has a say.  It sounds like the state Board of Elections would make all decisions.  My guess is they couldn't certify a winner and there would be another election - but I couldn't find a law on ties other than in village elections (re-vote unless the parties agree to declare the winner by a game of chance).
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #742 on: April 05, 2009, 03:35:38 PM »

Although there are more absentee ballots from Republicans than Democrats to be counted, there are actually more absentee ballots from counties Murphy won that Tedisco did.

I predict another "fraken" recount with enough spoiled and illegal votes being counted to give Murphy the win.
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Meeker
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« Reply #743 on: April 05, 2009, 03:40:26 PM »

Although there are more absentee ballots from Republicans than Democrats to be counted, there are actually more absentee ballots from counties Murphy won that Tedisco did.

I predict another "fraken" recount with enough spoiled and illegal votes being counted to give Murphy the win.


LOL
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Rowan
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« Reply #744 on: April 05, 2009, 04:02:22 PM »

there are actually more absentee ballots from counties Murphy won that Tedisco did.


So? That means nothing.
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Smash255
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« Reply #745 on: April 05, 2009, 04:32:08 PM »

Although there are more absentee ballots from Republicans than Democrats to be counted, there are actually more absentee ballots from counties Murphy won that Tedisco did.

I predict another "fraken" recount with enough spoiled and illegal votes being counted to give Murphy the win.


More absentees are from Republicans than Democrats, but the district itself is more Republican than Democrat, and the GOP advantage is absentees is a bit smaller than the GOP registration advantage.  If the GOP & Dem turnout was similar (giving the GOP close to the 16 point registration edge they have) the fact that a 16 point GOP registration advantage wound up in pretty much a tie, a smaller advantage than that with the absentees favors Murphy.  The real question is, are the Republicans who voted absentee as likely to cross party lines as the Republicans that voted on March 31st.  If that is the case its going to be very hard for Tedisco to pull this off.  With that being said, it is still likely going to come down to a couple hundred votes either way once this is all over.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #746 on: April 05, 2009, 04:34:36 PM »

Although there are more absentee ballots from Republicans than Democrats to be counted, there are actually more absentee ballots from counties Murphy won that Tedisco did.

I predict another "fraken" recount with enough spoiled and illegal votes being counted to give Murphy the win.


More absentees are from Republicans than Democrats, but the district itself is more Republican than Democrat, and the GOP advantage is absentees is a bit smaller than the GOP registration advantage.  If the GOP & Dem turnout was similar (giving the GOP close to the 16 point registration edge they have) the fact that a 16 point GOP registration advantage wound up in pretty much a tie, a smaller advantage than that with the absentees favors Murphy.  The real question is, are the Republicans who voted absentee as likely to cross party lines as the Republicans that voted on March 31st.  If that is the case its going to be very hard for Tedisco to pull this off.  With that being said, it is still likely going to come down to a couple hundred votes either way once this is all over.

But we don't know that the people that went to the polls were at a 16 point GOP advantage.
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Smash255
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« Reply #747 on: April 05, 2009, 04:36:00 PM »

Although there are more absentee ballots from Republicans than Democrats to be counted, there are actually more absentee ballots from counties Murphy won that Tedisco did.

I predict another "fraken" recount with enough spoiled and illegal votes being counted to give Murphy the win.


More absentees are from Republicans than Democrats, but the district itself is more Republican than Democrat, and the GOP advantage is absentees is a bit smaller than the GOP registration advantage.  If the GOP & Dem turnout was similar (giving the GOP close to the 16 point registration edge they have) the fact that a 16 point GOP registration advantage wound up in pretty much a tie, a smaller advantage than that with the absentees favors Murphy.  The real question is, are the Republicans who voted absentee as likely to cross party lines as the Republicans that voted on March 31st.  If that is the case its going to be very hard for Tedisco to pull this off.  With that being said, it is still likely going to come down to a couple hundred votes either way once this is all over.

But we don't know that the people that went to the polls were at a 16 point GOP advantage.

Which is why I said If.....
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #748 on: April 05, 2009, 04:54:09 PM »

Come on, people. Just let the Irish guy win.
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cinyc
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« Reply #749 on: April 06, 2009, 03:37:19 PM »

New numbers from the New York State Board of Elections website:

Jim Tedisco (R):     76,914
Scott Murphy (D):   76,817
Difference:       97
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