NY-20 Special Election

[Eraserhead]

Pretty crazy, I gotta say. I knew it would most likely be extremely close but wow.

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04/the-latest-score-in-ny-20-unknown.php#more

According to the Murphy campaign Delaware county finished counting AND the absentees, and Murphy netted 20 votes.
The result couldn't be confirmed because the county workers had gone home.

[Rowan]

Also, The Albany Project is reporting that Murphy has gained 13 votes from Dutchess.

http://www.thealbanyproject.com/diary/6234/ny20-murphy-picks-up-33-votes-in-delaware-dutchess-counties

[You kip if you want to...]

This was said a few pages back, but an exact tie in this race would be a pretty funny situation.

[Ronnie]

Murphy will most likely win.

[You kip if you want to...]

Murphy will most likely win.

That's counting that it doesn't turn into Minnesota-sen 2.0

[cinyc]

These initial reports may be misleading, depending on who objected to what absentees.  And if you think the military absentees broke differently than the regular vote, they are especially misleading because the military and overseas absentees cannot be counted until April 14.   They are still trickling in.

Politickerny.com is reporting from Democrat sources that Murphy picked up 20 votes in Delaware, 10 in Rennselaer and 13 in parts of Dutchess counties.

[Nym90]

Murphy will most likely win.

That's counting that it doesn't turn into Minnesota-sen 2.0

What are the election laws like in New York regarding challenges? Hopefully they don't allow endless appeals well beyond inauguration day like Minnesota does.

Imagine if the Presidency was like that. Gore could've just kept the Florida results held up in court forever and kept the White House vacant. Obviously anyone who supports Coleman's challenge now would've supported this as well.

[minionofmidas]

Murphy will most likely win.

That's counting that it doesn't turn into Minnesota-sen 2.0

What are the election laws like in New York regarding challenges? Hopefully they don't allow endless appeals well beyond inauguration day like Minnesota does.

Imagine if the Presidency was like that. Gore could've just kept the Florida results held up in court forever and kept the White House vacant. Obviously anyone who supports Coleman's challenge now would've supported this as well.

The difference is that the US President is not elected by the voters. He is elected by the Electors. While it would have been only sane and proper to just deny Florida its electors entirely, as was done in comparable circumstances in 1872 (but not since), the remedy of seating the leader provisionally (which would be sane and proper here but isn't allowed by MN state law) was just not available for the selection of Electors.

[You kip if you want to...]

Murphy will most likely win.

That's counting that it doesn't turn into Minnesota-sen 2.0

What are the election laws like in New York regarding challenges? Hopefully they don't allow endless appeals well beyond inauguration day like Minnesota does.

Imagine if the Presidency was like that. Gore could've just kept the Florida results held up in court forever and kept the White House vacant. Obviously anyone who supports Coleman's challenge now would've supported this as well.

The difference is that the US President is not elected by the voters. He is elected by the Electors. While it would have been only sane and proper to just deny Florida its electors entirely, as was done in comparable circumstances in 1872 (but not since), the remedy of seating the leader provisionally (which would be sane and proper here but isn't allowed by MN state law) was just not available for the selection of Electors.

If Florida was denied its electors, wouldn't that have taken the election to the House with the electoral votes standing at 267 (or 266 if one still didn't vote) for Gore to 246 for Bush? And presumably Bush would've still won because the GOP had the house majority, after the 2000 election. The senate was 50/50, after the 2000 election, with Vice-president Gore as the 51st Democratic vote, so Lieberman would've (presumably) been made the Vice-president to Bush.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Murphy will most likely win.

That's counting that it doesn't turn into Minnesota-sen 2.0

What are the election laws like in New York regarding challenges? Hopefully they don't allow endless appeals well beyond inauguration day like Minnesota does.

Imagine if the Presidency was like that. Gore could've just kept the Florida results held up in court forever and kept the White House vacant. Obviously anyone who supports Coleman's challenge now would've supported this as well.

The difference is that the US President is not elected by the voters. He is elected by the Electors. While it would have been only sane and proper to just deny Florida its electors entirely, as was done in comparable circumstances in 1872 (but not since), the remedy of seating the leader provisionally (which would be sane and proper here but isn't allowed by MN state law) was just not available for the selection of Electors.

If Florida was denied its electors, wouldn't that have taken the election to the House with the electoral votes standing at 267 (or 266 if one still didn't vote) for Gore to 246 for Bush? And presumably Bush would've still won because the GOP had the house majority, after the 2000 election. The senate was 50/50, after the 2000 election, with Vice-president Gore as the 51st Democratic vote, so Lieberman would've (presumably) been made the Vice-president to Bush.

Now, wouldn't that be a match made in heaven?

[minionofmidas]

Murphy will most likely win.

That's counting that it doesn't turn into Minnesota-sen 2.0

What are the election laws like in New York regarding challenges? Hopefully they don't allow endless appeals well beyond inauguration day like Minnesota does.

Imagine if the Presidency was like that. Gore could've just kept the Florida results held up in court forever and kept the White House vacant. Obviously anyone who supports Coleman's challenge now would've supported this as well.

The difference is that the US President is not elected by the voters. He is elected by the Electors. While it would have been only sane and proper to just deny Florida its electors entirely, as was done in comparable circumstances in 1872 (but not since), the remedy of seating the leader provisionally (which would be sane and proper here but isn't allowed by MN state law) was just not available for the selection of Electors.

If Florida was denied its electors, wouldn't that have taken the election to the House with the electoral votes standing at 267 (or 266 if one still didn't vote) for Gore to 246 for Bush? And presumably Bush would've still won because the GOP had the house majority, after the 2000 election. The senate was 50/50, after the 2000 election, with Vice-president Gore as the 51st Democratic vote, so Lieberman would've (presumably) been made the Vice-president to Bush.

No.

"The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed." There wouldn't have been any appointed Electors from Florida (or none whose appointment was recognized by the United States of America) under this scenario, so the total drops.

[Rowan]

NY-20 Update:

Tedisco up 24 overall.

This includes all recanvassing and some absentees being counted. Murphy has gained 44 votes from absentees counted so far.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults040909.pdf

[Dan the Roman]

Take this as you like. Dailykos claims Tedisco is challenging every ballot from a voter with a 2nd home in the district in Columbia county, which may be depressing Murphy's total by as much as 100.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/4/9/718067/-NY-20:-Urgent-distress-call-from-Columbia-County

[Rowan]

Take this as you like. Dailykos claims Tedisco is challenging every ballot from a voter with a 2nd home in the district in Columbia county, which may be depressing Murphy's total by as much as 100.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/4/9/718067/-NY-20:-Urgent-distress-call-from-Columbia-County

They'll be counted eventually, so it really doesn't matter. It's not like they are being thrown out, they are being put aside for now.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, Disco Duck called up all the absentee voters and asked them who they voted for, so he knows which ballots to challenge.

[Verily]

Take this as you like. Dailykos claims Tedisco is challenging every ballot from a voter with a 2nd home in the district in Columbia county, which may be depressing Murphy's total by as much as 100.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/4/9/718067/-NY-20:-Urgent-distress-call-from-Columbia-County

They'll be counted eventually, so it really doesn't matter. It's not like they are being thrown out, they are being put aside for now.

Yes, but if it artificially makes the race close, it provides cover for a future lawsuit. Which is probably the point.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So Tedisco is taking notes from Norm Coleman.

[Eraserhead]

This thing is going to go on forever if it remains this close.

[You kip if you want to...]

This thing is going to go on forever if it remains this close.

Minnesota 2.0

[Ronnie]

This thing is going to go on forever if it remains this close.

Minnesota 2.0

It's more like Minnesota 1.5 because it's a house race, not a senate race.

[cinyc]

Also, Disco Duck called up all the absentee voters and asked them who they voted for, so he knows which ballots to challenge.

Of course, the Murphy campaign would NEVER do exactly the same thing.  Never.  BTW - If his campaign didn't, it's incompetent.

As for the questioned absentees, were hearing about the questionable Tedisco-objected absentees from  left-wing sources, but not the questionable Murphy-objected absentees that likely also exist.  And most of us are forgetting that the military and overseas absentees cannot be counted yet, which may or may not offset any questioned absentees.

[cinyc]

NY-20 Update:

Tedisco up 24 overall.

This includes all recanvassing and some absentees being counted. Murphy has gained 44 votes from absentees counted so far.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults040909.pdf

Tedisco picked up a net 51 votes from recanvassing the machine count in Greene County, putting him up by 68 before absentees.  Greene was supposedly the last county to recanvass.  So the official unofficial machine count tally after the first recanvassing is:

Tedisco (R) 77,060 (50.02%)
Murphy (D) 76,992 (49.98%)

That's the baseline to work off of when trying to project absentees.

Here's a breakdown of the absentees counted as of 10:00AM today:



All county counts are extremely partial.  Columbia has counted 6.71% of the absentees returned, Dutchess 8.38% and Greene 44.42%.

[jimrtex]

Murphy will most likely win.

That's counting that it doesn't turn into Minnesota-sen 2.0

What are the election laws like in New York regarding challenges? Hopefully they don't allow endless appeals well beyond inauguration day like Minnesota does.

Imagine if the Presidency was like that. Gore could've just kept the Florida results held up in court forever and kept the White House vacant. Obviously anyone who supports Coleman's challenge now would've supported this as well.

The difference is that the US President is not elected by the voters. He is elected by the Electors. While it would have been only sane and proper to just deny Florida its electors entirely, as was done in comparable circumstances in 1872 (but not since), the remedy of seating the leader provisionally (which would be sane and proper here but isn't allowed by MN state law) was just not available for the selection of Electors.

If Florida was denied its electors, wouldn't that have taken the election to the House with the electoral votes standing at 267 (or 266 if one still didn't vote) for Gore to 246 for Bush? And presumably Bush would've still won because the GOP had the house majority, after the 2000 election. The senate was 50/50, after the 2000 election, with Vice-president Gore as the 51st Democratic vote, so Lieberman would've (presumably) been made the Vice-president to Bush.

The Constitution defines a majority in terms of electors "appointed".  The issue would then be whether Florida had appointed its electors.  The Florida legislature was prepared to appoint electors, so then you would have Congress determining whether (1) Florida had appointed electors, and (2) whether their votes were legally cast.

[cinyc]

Delaware County Absentees (via Capitol Confidential):
Murphy 139
Tedisco 119
Objections 9
Military/Overseas not counted 33

That shrinks Tedisco's lead to 4.

The absentees counted thus far came in 4.05% better for Murphy in Delaware than the machine count, and puts the Delaware County overall tally at Tedisco 3,489 - Murphy 3,486.