NY-20 Special Election
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Author Topic: NY-20 Special Election  (Read 178457 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #800 on: April 09, 2009, 02:21:42 PM »

Delaware County Absentees:
Murphy 139
Tedisco 119
Objections 9
Military/Overseas not counted 33

That shrinks Tedisco's lead to 4.

The absentees counted thus far came in 4.05% better for Murphy in Delaware than the machine count. 

I think we're almost at the point where we can call the election for Murphy.
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cinyc
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« Reply #801 on: April 09, 2009, 02:22:56 PM »

Delaware County Absentees:
Murphy 139
Tedisco 119
Objections 9
Military/Overseas not counted 33

That shrinks Tedisco's lead to 4.

The absentees counted thus far came in 4.05% better for Murphy in Delaware than the machine count. 

I think we're almost at the point where we can call the election for Murphy.

Not without seeing results from Saratoga County and the military absentees.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #802 on: April 09, 2009, 03:39:25 PM »

Delaware County Absentees:
Murphy 139
Tedisco 119
Objections 9
Military/Overseas not counted 33

That shrinks Tedisco's lead to 4.

The absentees counted thus far came in 4.05% better for Murphy in Delaware than the machine count. 

I think we're almost at the point where we can call the election for Murphy.

Not without seeing results from Saratoga County and the military absentees.

Don't feed trolls.
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Holmes
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« Reply #803 on: April 09, 2009, 03:45:32 PM »

Hm, I'm not following this as closely as I intended. Is there a date where all the ballots must be counted?
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Rowan
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« Reply #804 on: April 09, 2009, 03:52:03 PM »

Hm, I'm not following this as closely as I intended. Is there a date where all the ballots must be counted?

Nope. Could take weeks.
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cinyc
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« Reply #805 on: April 09, 2009, 03:54:05 PM »

Hm, I'm not following this as closely as I intended. Is there a date where all the ballots must be counted?

Counting of regular absentee ballots could have started as early as Wednesday.  Military and overseas absentees cannot be counted until April 14, the day after they must be received to get counted.  

I doubt there's a final date, other than whenever the court decides the last challenge.  

Rennselaer County may be done counting the non-challenged, non-overseas and military absentee ballots, but no results have been announced yet.
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Rowan
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« Reply #806 on: April 09, 2009, 03:56:34 PM »

NY-20 Update

Murphy ahead by 8.

Murphy ahead by 76 on absentee ballots counted so far.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults040909b.pdf
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cinyc
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« Reply #807 on: April 09, 2009, 04:14:36 PM »

On the absentee count of one precinct in Republican-leaning Saratoga County:

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The objections are going both ways.
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cinyc
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« Reply #808 on: April 09, 2009, 04:57:20 PM »


The new absentees came from Rennselaer County (92.5% of all absentees in counted (including uncounted military and overseas); Murphy did 3.7%  better than the machine count so far without military and overseas absentees) and Otsego County (65.7% counted; Tedisco did 2.8% better than the machine count so far).
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cinyc
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« Reply #809 on: April 09, 2009, 05:42:18 PM »

According to Capitol Confidential, Murphy is up by 34 after Essex County's paper ballots were counted.  The Essex County count was Murphy 88, Tedisco 62, with 31 challenged ballots and likely 11 military and federal ballots left to be counted.

Murphy 77,678 (50.01%)
Tedisco 77,6644 (49.99%)
Difference 34

In Essex, County the counted ballots constituted 86.7% of the absentees reported in.  But the counted plus disputed ballots reflects 104.6% and counted plus disputed plus military/foreign ballots reflects 111.0% of the absentees reported in.  Either there are more absentees than reported by the NYS Board of Elections or the counties are also counting provisional ballots right now - the numbers of which have never been reported by anyone.
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Torie
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« Reply #810 on: April 09, 2009, 09:54:38 PM »

If there are enough provisional ballots, that is the inside straight for Murphy I would think. Those puppies tend to have a substantial Dem bias, no?
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cinyc
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« Reply #811 on: April 09, 2009, 10:09:58 PM »

If there are enough provisional ballots, that is the inside straight for Murphy I would think. Those puppies tend to have a substantial Dem bias, no?

That depends on how many provisional ballots there are (unknown) and whether Saratoga County or the military ballots can save Tedisco (again, unknown - and may not be known for a while).  Tedisco was up by 68 in the recanvassed machine count before paper ballots were counted.  So he does have some cushion.

Given the absentee results so far, I'd much rather be in Murphy's shoes than Tedisco's.  Every county but Otsego has been going better for Murphy than the machine count thus far.  Then again, the military absentees may reverse that advantage, for all we know.
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Lunar
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« Reply #812 on: April 09, 2009, 10:12:39 PM »

If there are enough provisional ballots, that is the inside straight for Murphy I would think. Those puppies tend to have a substantial Dem bias, no?

Alas, yes, people who don't know how to vote favor the Democrats.  But it matters a lot on local laws, Al Franken 100% won because of Minnesota's liberal ballot laws that declare that observable intent is sufficient... so if you voted Coleman but wrote in giant crayon all over the ballot "I HATE COLEMAN I REALLY WANT TO VOTE FOR FRANKEN, PLEASE CAST THIS VOTE FOR FRANKEN" ... well, it means something different than other states. 

NY also has ancient lever-machines that are less disputable than filling in bubbles...

I'm not sure on their laws.  If they're strict enough, the GOP bias of military absentees would overwhelm any uneducated err... new voter advantage for the Democrats.
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cinyc
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« Reply #813 on: April 09, 2009, 10:18:40 PM »

If there are enough provisional ballots, that is the inside straight for Murphy I would think. Those puppies tend to have a substantial Dem bias, no?

Alas, yes, people who don't know how to vote favor the Democrats.  But it matters a lot on local laws, Al Franken 100% won because of Minnesota's liberal ballot laws that declare that observable intent is sufficient... so if you voted Coleman but wrote in giant crayon all over the ballot "I HATE COLEMAN I REALLY WANT TO VOTE FOR FRANKEN, PLEASE CAST THIS VOTE FOR FRANKEN" ... well, it means something different than other states. 

NY also has ancient lever-machines that are less disputable than filling in bubbles...

I'm not sure on their laws.  If they're strict enough, the GOP bias of military absentees would overwhelm any uneducated err... new voter advantage for the Democrats.

In theory, the only people who would get provisional ballots in New York are folks who voted when the machines malfunctioned or folks who weren't registered in the precinct where they went to vote.  If I recall correctly, if the person's name wasn't on the roll because they moved within the county since they registered in it, the vote would be counted, but if they moved out of county or weren't registered in the county, it would not.  (I may be wrong on this.)

There shouldn't be a ton of provisional or other paper ballots in a New York special election.  Fortunately, that's not how we roll - yet.
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Rowan
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« Reply #814 on: April 09, 2009, 10:19:42 PM »

Why doesn't every state just have touch screen machines?
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Lunar
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« Reply #815 on: April 09, 2009, 10:20:29 PM »

On the other hand, a simply shift of, say, 25 votes, could decide the election.


And then there's the prospect of disputed absentee ballots, which were probably not cast with lever-based machines
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cinyc
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« Reply #816 on: April 09, 2009, 10:32:26 PM »

On the other hand, a simply shift of, say, 25 votes, could decide the election.


And then there's the prospect of disputed absentee ballots, which were probably not cast with lever-based machines

From my experience, New York absentees are usually punch-card ballots (at least Downstate).  There may a few hanging or dangling chads, but, IIRC the instructions specifically say to make sure you make a clean punch and remove the chad. 

And remember, as of right now we're only talking about 6,726 potential absentees with hanging chads, not millions like in other states.  And the universe of disputed ballots will be much smaller than that.

New York isn't Minnesota or Florida - yet.  HAVA might be changing that, unfortunately.
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cinyc
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« Reply #817 on: April 10, 2009, 12:08:46 AM »
« Edited: April 10, 2009, 12:34:16 AM by cinyc »

The Poughkeepsie Journal has Murphy up by 55, with more absentee votes apparently in from Columbia, Dutchess and Rensselaer Counties.  Still no word from Saratoga, which is apparently waiting until all absentees are counted to release a tally - probably the right way to do things.

Edit: Adding the Essex County results from Capitol Confidential blog, Murphy's lead should be 81.

The Poughkeepsie Journal also reported that there were 740 "absentee, affidavit and other paper ballots, excluding military and federal ballots" in Dutchess County.   Yet the State Board of elections only reported 680 Dutchess absentees in, including 67 military and overseas absentees.  So if the Poughkeepsie Journal is correct, there are 60 or 127 other paper ballots to be counted in Dutchess, depending on whether the military absentees were backed out of the count.
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Lunar
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« Reply #818 on: April 10, 2009, 12:35:49 AM »

This race is so ridic, we really need to get the absentees counted before anyone picks up or gives up hiope
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cinyc
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« Reply #819 on: April 10, 2009, 01:02:06 AM »

This race is so ridic, we really need to get the absentees counted before anyone picks up or gives up hiope

That's unlikely to happen.  Tomorrow is a quasi-holiday when a lot of people are trying to get away.  Dutchess County isn't going to resume counting absentees until Monday afternoon.  Saratoga doesn't appear to be anywhere close to done.  And Warren and Washington counties don't appear to have counted anything yet.

And then there's the matter of ruling on whether the objected to absentees should be counted.  It will be a slow crawl.
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Rowan
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« Reply #820 on: April 10, 2009, 10:38:13 AM »

NY-20 Update:

Murphy up by 46.

Delaware, Essex, Ostego, and Rensselear have finished counting paper ballots.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults041009.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #821 on: April 10, 2009, 10:53:55 AM »

Seems like a good enough Murphy lead in absentees only so far.

Can anyone please explain to me (I haven't followed this all the time) why there's such a discrepancy between the Election Night Vote (Murphy up by 60 or so) and the recanvassing (Tedisco up 70) Why are these counties not able to produce final numbers on Election Night ... ?
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Rowan
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« Reply #822 on: April 10, 2009, 10:58:35 AM »

Seems like a good enough Murphy lead in absentees only so far.

Can anyone please explain to me (I haven't followed this all the time) why there's such a discrepancy between the Election Night Vote (Murphy up by 60 or so) and the recanvassing (Tedisco up 70) Why are these counties not able to produce final numbers on Election Night ... ?

They were just errors in reporting. For example, a person on the phone saying 769 instead of 796. During canvassing they go back and check for errors.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #823 on: April 10, 2009, 11:03:59 AM »

Seems like a good enough Murphy lead in absentees only so far.

Can anyone please explain to me (I haven't followed this all the time) why there's such a discrepancy between the Election Night Vote (Murphy up by 60 or so) and the recanvassing (Tedisco up 70) Why are these counties not able to produce final numbers on Election Night ... ?

They were just errors in reporting. For example, a person on the phone saying 769 instead of 796. During canvassing they go back and check for errors.

But 100 votes ? The should check the numbers in a precinct 2 times or 3 times or 5 times on Election Night and then report it to the SBOE. Sry, but I just hate it if there are 10 different results around all the time ...
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Lunar
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« Reply #824 on: April 10, 2009, 11:05:43 AM »

I'll go talk to them for you, I promise it'll never happen again
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