NY-20 Special Election

[Purple State]

turnout light:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jvFtnxqBwuwEltwfNBZytBYwy5HQD9795EMO1

I call your turnout light article and raise you a turnout high article:
Turnout high for Congress race; get results here after 9 p.m. (Poughkeepsie Journal)

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Does the large number of early morning voting provide a Dem advantage?

[Lunar]

Odds are that it provides a Democratic advantage more than a Republican one, but it really matters who's turning out.

One third of the district lives in Unionized households (three times the national average)...

[Torie]

turnout light:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jvFtnxqBwuwEltwfNBZytBYwy5HQD9795EMO1

I call your turnout light article and raise you a turnout high article:
Turnout high for Congress race; get results here after 9 p.m. (Poughkeepsie Journal)

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Does the large number of early morning voting provide a Dem advantage?

It used to be white collars (GOP leaning) voted early, and blue collars later after work (they get off work earlier than white collars). That probably isn't so generally true now, but it may still be somewhat true in this economically stagnant and fossilized region of the country.

[Lunar]

http://firedoglake.com/2009/03/31/breaking-ny-20-tedisco-preps-for-loss/

Republican Jim Tedisco may be running for the House in a district where Republicans outnumber Democratic voters by some 70,000, but with the polls closing in a matter of hours, Tedisco’s campaign is prepping for a loss.

An electoral loss, anyway.

The Dutchess County Clerk’s Office has confirmed to FDL that Tedisco’s people have filed an ex parte motion, the effect of which would be to investigate and overturn today’s election results, should the outcome not be to Republicans’ liking.

We now have sloppy copy, and are poring over it. Here's the fun that's right up top:



Beyond the standard practice of seeking to impound machine, determine validity of affidavit ballots, etc., the Tedisco campaign goes for this grand overreach--and does so hours before the polls even close. (I am not a lawyer, but the ones we have hear tell me this is not standard operating procedure--this is a desperate play.)

This filing come on the heels of a report that Tedisco’s own polling has him losing to Democrat Scott Murphy by a narrow margin.

[Franzl]

Is this a joke?

And if not, what does it mean?

[Verily]

It appears Norm Coleman has given birth to a whole new level of sleaze in elections.

[Lunar]

Is this a joke?

And if not, what does it mean?

It means he's laying the preliminary legal groundwork for an appeal if he narrowly loses

[Franzl]

define "narrow".

We talking about 0.1% or 3%?

[Lunar]

define "narrow".

We talking about 0.1% or 3%?

That's up for his lawyers to decide after the fact.

[minionofmidas]

It appears Norm Coleman has given birth to a whole new level of sleaze in elections.

John Cornyn's the name.

[Franzl]

define "narrow".

We talking about 0.1% or 3%?

That's up for his lawyers to decide after the fact.

Well yeah....but everybody knows it won't do him any good above an extremely small margin, right?

Why would he want to make a fool of himself?

[Franzl]

Does it even make sense to challenge an election before a recount is requested and performed?

[Torie]

Does it even make sense to challenge an election before a recount is requested and performed?

I suspect the document is ersatz myself. It makes zero sense. It is not as if the election will be certified tomorrow or the next day is it?

[Lunar]

it's a non-story, I'm just posting every development I see.  I give it at least a 50% of being true but probably distorted in its implications

[Lunar]

NewMajority points out some facts:

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http://newmajority.com/ShowScroll.aspx?ID=cb1eb676-19fb-47ed-b0d1-43b14bcf22de

[Marokai Backbeat]

It appears Norm Coleman has given birth to a whole new level of sleaze in elections.

John Cornyn's the name.

Destroying Democracy's his game.

[cinyc]

Since the county results might come quicker than the districtwide results, here are some stats on the county-by-county breakdown of the district (based on the 2008 Congressional Vote), plus the percentage of the vote Gillibrand (D) received in 2006.  Gillibrand won in 2006 with 53.1%.  2004 and 2008 were blowouts and not great for comparison:

County	% of District	2006 D%
Columbia	9.6%	58.32%
Delaware	5.4%	46.07%
Dutchess	14.5%	55.15%
Essex	1.9%	53.54%
Greene	6.8%	47.90%
Ostego	1.6%	52.56%
Rensselaer	9.9%	53.36%
Saratoga	32.6%	52.60%
Warren	9.8%	53.83%
Washington	7.8%	53.16%
Total	100%	53.10%

Fairly uniform, except for Greene, Delaware and Columbia.

Saratoga.  Saratoga.  Saratoga.

[cinyc]

Does it even make sense to challenge an election before a recount is requested and performed?

I suspect the document is ersatz myself. It makes zero sense. It is not as if the election will be certified tomorrow or the next day is it?

Sounds like much ado about nothing - and not directly filed by Tedesco, in any event.  From the Poughkeepsie Journal:

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[Joe Biden 2020]

When will we know the results of this election?

[Holmes]

When will we know the results of this election?

Maybe... 10pm eastern?

[Lunar]

We might not know tonight if it's close enough since they'll have to count the moderately high number of absentees and whatnot.

[Lunar]

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Why would Paterson be holding an event in Scott Murphy's hometown tomorrow?

[Eraserhead]

When will we know the results of this election?

Final results? Not sure, hopefully tonight. Early returns should start coming in after 9 PM eastern time (when polls close).

[Meeker]

That court filing doesn't sound like much.

C'mon Scottie!

[Lunar]

here's the link to the full filing.  It's echoed by more credible sites as well but people are scratching their heads as to what it means.

http://static1.firedoglake.com/1/files//2009/03/tediscofiling033109.pdf