NY-20 Special Election
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Author Topic: NY-20 Special Election  (Read 179271 times)
Meeker
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« Reply #450 on: March 31, 2009, 08:35:52 PM »
Warren 67/70 in and Murphy winning 56-44
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #451 on: March 31, 2009, 08:36:12 PM »
Is the DLC gonna be proud of themselves if Murphy loses?
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Meeker
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« Reply #452 on: March 31, 2009, 08:36:37 PM »
There are numbers from every county but Delaware on the AP's page
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cinyc
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« Reply #453 on: March 31, 2009, 08:36:41 PM »
My updated count from County BOE websites and the Saratogan for Dutchess, Ostego, Columbia:

Tedesco 40,411 50.49%
Murphy  39,632 49.51%
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #454 on: March 31, 2009, 08:37:19 PM »
Im glad I remembered to watch this. I have nothing to do tonight and too much coffee so this better go on for a while! Tongue
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #455 on: March 31, 2009, 08:37:25 PM »
If I had to guess right now (with 1/2 through) - Tedisco by 1,000 or so.  But this is only a guess.
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Alcon
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« Reply #456 on: March 31, 2009, 08:37:46 PM »
Could someone link to the site with Columbia, Delaware, Dutchess and Otsego?  Can't find it for my life, but I have an automated update program hooked up for the others.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #457 on: March 31, 2009, 08:38:14 PM »
This is still looking painfully/beautifully close at the moment (but a bit of a Murphy breakout seems plausible)...
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Meeker
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« Reply #458 on: March 31, 2009, 08:39:11 PM »
Tedisco's margin in Saratoga has been gradually shrinking (59% lead to now only 56%)
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War on Want
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« Reply #459 on: March 31, 2009, 08:40:00 PM »
It looks like there is still a good chance Murphy can win this.
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Alcon
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« Reply #460 on: March 31, 2009, 08:40:12 PM »
Excluding CDDO:

Tedisco 39,543 (51.0%)
Murphy 37,929 (49.0%)

Tedisco is crashing a bit in Saratoga, but improving in the smaller counties.
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cinyc
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« Reply #461 on: March 31, 2009, 08:40:21 PM »
County   Murphy   Tedesco   SE D%   2006 Change
Columbia   2544   1981   56.22%   2.10%
Delaware         #DIV/0!   #DIV/0!
Dutchess   3016   2894   51.03%   4.11%
Essex   630   593   51.51%   2.03%
Greene   3366   4333   43.72%   4.18%
Ostego   790   876   47.42%   5.14%
Rensselaer   3158   3376   48.33%   5.03%
Saratoga   14178   18051   43.99%   8.61%
Warren   8680   6890   55.75%   -1.92%
Washington   6750   5238   56.31%   -3.15%
            
Total   43112   44232   49.36%   3.74%
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #462 on: March 31, 2009, 08:41:04 PM »
Quote from: VP Meeker on March 31, 2009, 08:39:11 PM
Tedisco's margin in Saratoga has been gradually shrinking (59% lead to now only 56%)

Probably because the votes that are coming in are splitting evenly.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #463 on: March 31, 2009, 08:41:47 PM »
Delaware is a Republican county, went for McCain 53-46 compared to Obama winning the district.

I would give Tedisco about a 75% chance of winning right now.
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Alcon
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« Reply #464 on: March 31, 2009, 08:41:52 PM »
Updated with cinyc's numbers from CDDO:

Tedisco 46,694 (50.6%)
Murphy 45,598 (49.4%)
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #465 on: March 31, 2009, 08:41:57 PM »
Haha, this is nuts. I had hoped this would be exciting (although it better have the correct ending)!
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cinyc
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« Reply #466 on: March 31, 2009, 08:42:15 PM »
Quote from: Alcon on March 31, 2009, 08:37:46 PM
Could someone link to the site with Columbia, Delaware, Dutchess and Otsego?  Can't find it for my life, but I have an automated update program hooked up for the others.

Dutchess
Delaware
The others don't have pages, as best I can tell.
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Zarn
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« Reply #467 on: March 31, 2009, 08:42:58 PM »
Aren't the military/ overseas voted coming in, later? I heard they were given some more time to arrive.
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Meeker
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« Reply #468 on: March 31, 2009, 08:43:26 PM »
Murphy needs to improve in Saratoga and pray that Columbia turned out...
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #469 on: March 31, 2009, 08:43:27 PM »
Still way too close to call, but I'm agreeing with Dan and like my 1,000 vote margin call still.
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Alcon
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« Reply #470 on: March 31, 2009, 08:43:54 PM »
This number includes Delaware and the latest from all counties.

Tedisco 53,493 (50.4%)
Murphy 52,548 (49.6%)
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Lunar
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« Reply #471 on: March 31, 2009, 08:44:10 PM »
I agree with Sam.  Tedisco's on track for a win by a thousand or so, maybe a few hundred more than that, but who knows until we get a few more numbers
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #472 on: March 31, 2009, 08:44:58 PM »
This is pretty much going as most expected it to go, this is, afterall, a Republican district, even if it has trended Democrat slightly more in recent elections.
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cinyc
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« Reply #473 on: March 31, 2009, 08:45:40 PM »
Next Update:

Tedesco 53,563 50.46%
Murphy 52591    49.54%

Warren all in.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #474 on: March 31, 2009, 08:46:02 PM »
reminds me of Hackett-Schmidt '05
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