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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
  NY-20 Special Election
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Author Topic: NY-20 Special Election  (Read 163212 times)
Lunar
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« Reply #850 on: April 14, 2009, 03:42:18 pm »

Tedisco just had a campaign fail.  Despite being able to see that the name on the ballot was Kirsten Gillibrand, they still challenged it because of the whole multiple residences thing.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #851 on: April 14, 2009, 03:44:56 pm »

Tedisco just had a campaign fail.  Despite being able to see that the name on the ballot was Kirsten Gillibrand, they still challenged it because of the whole multiple residences thing.
Hm? It's called consistency.
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Lunar
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« Reply #852 on: April 14, 2009, 03:48:13 pm »

I suppose, but it's bad PR, now the Democrats can more easily mock Republicans who will claim that the election is being stolen as they review challenges absentees.  Not to mention it's hard to imagine a U.S. Representative not correctly registered.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #853 on: April 14, 2009, 03:51:13 pm »

I don't get it.  Gillibrand's name was on the ballot for the special election?
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Rowan
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« Reply #854 on: April 14, 2009, 03:53:36 pm »

NY-20 Update:

Murphy leads by 47.

Delaware and Ostego counted their military and overseas ballots today.

In Ostego, only 4 military and federal ballots were returned. They went 4 for Tedisco and 0 for Murphy. In Delaware, it says 33 military and federal ballots were returned, but only 25 were counted so far. Tedisco has won 15, and Murphy has won 10.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults041409b.pdf
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Lunar
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« Reply #855 on: April 14, 2009, 03:54:43 pm »

I don't get it.  Gillibrand's name was on the ballot for the special election?

on the envelope or what have you, I meant her vote
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Lunar
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« Reply #856 on: April 14, 2009, 04:01:59 pm »

apparently the complaint against Gillibrand is that Tedisco's campaign say that they knew for a fact that she was in the district that day and thus should have voted in person
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Rowan
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« Reply #857 on: April 14, 2009, 04:07:02 pm »

apparently the complaint against Gillibrand is that Tedisco's campaign say that they knew for a fact that she was in the district that day and thus should have voted in person

I kinda don't like this "no-excuse" absentee voting. It allows for too much chance for fraud.
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cinyc
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« Reply #858 on: April 14, 2009, 04:12:05 pm »
« Edited: April 14, 2009, 04:15:50 pm by cinyc »

NY-20 Update:

Murphy leads by 47.

Delaware and Ostego counted their military and overseas ballots today.

In Ostego, only 4 military and federal ballots were returned. They went 4 for Tedisco and 0 for Murphy. In Delaware, it says 33 military and federal ballots were returned, but only 25 were counted so far. Tedisco has won 15, and Murphy has won 10.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults041409b.pdf

If that military/overseas breakdown continues in other counties, Tedisco would pick up a net 129 votes or so.  But it probably won't. 

Even with most of the military and overseas absentees counted, Murphy is still doing better than the machine count in Delaware County.  Should that trend continue (as it has thus far in all but Otsego County),  Murphy will win.  That trend is much more likely to stick.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #859 on: April 14, 2009, 04:51:50 pm »

With Tedisco challenging so many ballots, every current vote count is pretty useless.
Wake me up when the (legal) dust settles.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #860 on: April 14, 2009, 06:32:16 pm »

With Tedisco challenging so many ballots, every current vote count is pretty useless.

That sounds so familiar.. where have I heard that before..?
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Holmes
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« Reply #861 on: April 15, 2009, 08:40:40 am »

Gilibrand responded.

Quote
"The Republican's challenge is frivolous and without merit. This is part of their larger attempt to disenfranchise legal Democratic voters and delay the inevitable Democratic victory in the 20th. Every day that the national Republicans waste with their dishonest stalling tactics is another day Upstate New Yorkers are deprived their Member of Congress. Senator Gillibrand looks forward to working with Scott Murphy in Congress to support President Obama plans to turn this economy around and create good paying jobs."

NYS election law says that an elector must intend to be out of the COUNTY on Election Day when the elector submits the absentee ballot or requests the application.

Senator Gillibrand requested and completed an absentee ballot because she did not expect to be able to vote at her polling location since votes were scheduled in the Senate that day. Furthermore, Republican claims that she was in the county are false. She was not in Columbia County on Election Day.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #862 on: April 15, 2009, 09:45:20 am »

New count:

Murphy: 78.329
Tedisco: 78.161

Murphy: +168
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Rowan
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« Reply #863 on: April 15, 2009, 10:00:25 am »

Over.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #864 on: April 15, 2009, 10:09:40 am »

Over.

Well, there are still about 4.300 absentees left to count.

Among the 2443 that were already counted, Murphy leads 55%-45%.
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Rowan
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« Reply #865 on: April 15, 2009, 10:11:50 am »

Over.

Well, there are still about 4.300 absentees left to count.

Among the 2443 that were already counted, Murphy leads 55%-45%.

Where will Tedisco make up the difference? Not Saratoga, as I'm hearing he may net only 90 votes from there.
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The love that set me free
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« Reply #866 on: April 15, 2009, 12:30:22 pm »

Then there's all of Tedisco's ridiculous and inane challenges, looks like he won't be as succesful in thwarting democracy as Normie.
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Zarn
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« Reply #867 on: April 15, 2009, 03:01:18 pm »

We're a republic.
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Franzl
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« Reply #868 on: April 15, 2009, 03:05:17 pm »

We're a republic.

There is no contradiction.
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Alcon
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« Reply #869 on: April 15, 2009, 03:11:51 pm »

We're a republic.

He's technically right.  It's a direct vote, albeit one on republican representatives, but it's still "democratic" in the stringent sense.

With Rowan on this one.  If there were a pattern emerging that would be sufficient to overturn this margin, we would have seen it by now.  Nothing's impossible, but within a rational explanation for why a last-minute veer will happen, it's safe to assume it won't.
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« Reply #870 on: April 15, 2009, 03:47:46 pm »

We've seen a last-minute veer in this race before, those final precincts coming in far more strongly for Murphy than we had expected.

But yeah, it'd be highly remarkable if Tedisco won after all. (Unless we've somehow not been hearing the stories of Murphy's even more ridiculous, even more numerous challenges. Tongue )
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #871 on: April 15, 2009, 03:56:04 pm »

New numbers:

with Saratoga and Washington counties reporting


Murphy: 79,105
Tedisco: 79, 019

Murphy +86


Saratoga 1,181 absentee votes counted (inc. military + overseas)

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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #872 on: April 15, 2009, 04:05:52 pm »

Yikes, Tedisco will drag this race out for many months (just like Coleman).
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Verily
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« Reply #873 on: April 15, 2009, 04:10:01 pm »

Yikes, Tedisco will drag this race out for many months (just like Coleman).

No. The national party has no incentive to throw money at this race after the counting and recounting is done.
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #874 on: April 15, 2009, 04:10:20 pm »

Prediction: Murphy wins +250
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