NY-20 Special Election

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ALBANY—Already the jockeying over who will replace Kirsten Gillibrand in the House has begun.

I called Republican State Senator Roy McDonald, a longtime assemblyman from Gillibrand's district, just elected to Joe Bruno's former State Senate seat. He is often mentioned as a likely candidate for the House seat.

"I've heard that State Senator Betty Little from Glens Falls is interested, that Sandy Treadwell is interested, that Jimmy Tedisco is interested, and that John Faso is interested," McDonald said, and he predicted a "scramble" that would draw many candidates.

Each party's designee for the seat will be determined by a canvass of the county party chairman within the district. (There are 10.)

McDonald said he's not ruling anything out, but said the size of the district and the need to fly to Washington made congressional service less of a plum than it seems for some.

"I don't know if I have the capacity. The U.S. House and the U.S. Senate is becoming like the House of Lords," he said. "My father worked in a steel mill. I think I can make a difference as a state senator, and I'm going to focus on that."

Jasper Nolan, the Saratoga County Republican Chairman, told me last month that if it was an open seat, he thought a Republican candidate would have a very good shot at retaking the district. There are about 70,000 more Republican voters on the rolls than Democrats.

The Times Union is reporting that for Democrats, candidates include Saratoga County Democratic Chairman Larry Bulman (whose organization was first to endorse Gillibrand in 2006), as well as past local candidates Mike Russo, M. Tracey Brooks and Darius Shahinfar.

http://www.politickerny.com/1613/lining-replace-gillibrand

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"State Assembly Republican Minority Leader Jim Tedisco has already said he's running for Kirsten Gillibrand's House seat--and he has the Saratoga County endorsement."

http://www.politickerny.com/1624/filling-gillibrands-seat-original-hope-photo

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I think this is a GOP pickup as of now, until we find out who the parties nominate.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0109/Growing_field_for_Gillibrands_seat.html?showall

On the Democratic side, Carol Schrager, a Greene County attorney who worked for Gillibrand’s campaign and raised money for Hillary Clinton, announced her candidacy Friday. Also mentioned are Larry Bulman, a union official who doubles as Saratoga County Democratic chairman; Coxsackie Town Supervisor Alex Betke; and Mike Richter, a former New York Rangers goalie whose primary residence is in Connecticut but who owns a vacation home in the Adirondacks.

The Democratic and Republican nominees for the special election will be chosen by county party chairmen, who have weighted votes based on the party enrollments in their counties — and there are 10 counties in the 20th district.
The special election will be a significant first test for House Republicans, who are trying to quickly put behind memories of the last two dismal election cycles.  It would be a strong morale boost if Republicans could pick up a seat in a state where they only hold three of 31 Congressional seats.

They have reason for optimism, given the dearth of Democratic officeholders in the district and its GOP lean. But Republican operatives caution that the special election nominees are chosen by county party leaders, making it harder for the national party committee to land its favored candidate.

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Any chance that one of the Republican hopefuls that doesn't get the nod is upset enough over the back room deals made with the county chairmen by the GOP nominee  to consider a third party run on the Conservative Party line?

I don't know, but it would seem politically suicidal

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I think people need to remember that while special elections are unpredictable, they inherently favor the Republicans.  The higher the turnout the more the Democrats benefit (see the special elections in Georgia and Louisiana).  The lower the turnout, the better Republicans do.  How does this end up computing as a tossup?

So, you're taking an election in a slightly lean-Republican district (70k more Republicans) and it's a special election where Democratic turnout is going to depressed.  Kirsten may campaign heavily for the Dem and tilt the scales, but it'd be a surprise.

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Tedisco is the GOP nominee

I think he's one of the better people they could have nominated.

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Saratoga County is the largest population base for NY-20 though, so I expect his geography to help him more than hurt him. 

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When will be the actual election?

Paterson will soon set a date, probably like 40 days from now.

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Democrats still are surprisingly weak at identity politics and should have chosen a woman

Whoever it was would have had plenty of funds due to Gillibrand fundraising for her, all that really mattered was fitting the ideal biographical profile and be qualified

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"Dude with money" actually raises the chances of a (D) retainment drastically.

A special election is not a standard election

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I also think the national GOP party is hungry, really hungry, and will have more than enough matching funds and support. 

and I don't know if Kirsten will jump through the hoops for Murphy

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The DCCC put out some oppo research, but other than that, they have been largely absent:
http://www.politickerny.com/1813/why-dccc-fighting-gillibrand-seat

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What's he doing, driving an RV to work or filling up his friends cars?

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http://www.politickerny.com/1893/source-paterson-call-special-election-march-31

MARK YOUR CALENDARS

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Murphy runs an ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs7WgKpBa1E

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Obama should appear in an ad for him.

Obama's not THAT popular for the electorate that will turn out late March, which will be strongly Republican.  Besides, Obama can't afford to look so petty.  Gillibrand is the one that needs to cut 1-2 ads that run a lot, praising Murphy's stances on guns and government transparency and whatever those rednecks care about

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I was joking, you rednecks upstate aren't that bad.  Hell, I bet y'all can read if the words are small.

Anyway, Obama's not going to get really involved (see Georgia run-off), maybe a radio ad.  The Democrats' big X factor is whether Gillibrand will cut a TV ad.

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I was joking, you rednecks upstate aren't that bad.  Hell, I bet y'all can read if the words are small.

Anyway, Obama's not going to get really involved (see Georgia run-off), maybe a radio ad.  The Democrats' big X factor is whether Gillibrand will cut a TV ad.

Running an ad mentioning guns, illegals or marriage (or anything similar) might just do her in with the 2010 primary, considering her *present* views on such issues (which have moved considerably).

I imagine she's capable of appearing in a 30 second ad to help a candidate without talking about illegals or handguns.

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http://www.politickerny.com/1955/sundwall-will-scramble-do-petitions

a Libertarian is trying to get on the ballot -- I assume that would marginally help the Dems

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If anything makes me confident of this district for the Democrats, it is this video, put out by Tedisco's own campaign:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7u9bH0ZTGE&feature=channel_page

This isn't live, you're able to like, do a retake where Tedisco isn't obviously monotonously reading cue cards right behind the camera for a 50 something second clip. 

Not that I'm confident, but just, the lack of personality is astounding

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Compare their two official TV ads:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs7WgKpBa1E&eurl
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFYOWIPYr_s

Jim needs someone else to talk for him and he never actually talks on camera.

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Of course he thought there was a Republican advantage - there is.  Republicans have a large registration advantage.

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These days, if you want to get ahold of an Assembly Minority staffer, you’re better off calling the Tedisco for Congress campaign office than the minority leader’s government office.

Seven Assembly minority office staffers have taken leaves of absence to work on the campaign, including the conference’s top three spokesmen — Communications Director Joshua Fitzpatrick, Spokesman Dan Bazile, and Director of Regional Information Services Adam Kramer.

http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/11754/assembly-minority-loses-staff-to-tediscos-campaign

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Are you acting dumb intentionally?  You don't see any correlation between the large Republican registration advantage and a possible Republican advantage?  Ok, let me spill this out better: in a special election (low turnout), Republicans have an advantage: see Louisiana, Georgia, etc.  In a Cook R+5 district, the Republicans have an advantage.

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Well, another reason probably not to care is that the Democrats are going to have a hard time gerrymandering a Republican seat to eliminate come the next census.  NY-20 is really easy to chop up should it come under Republican control.  Getting rid of NY-23 or NY-26 are harder without being forced to unload some GOP-heavy areas on vulnerable Democratic seats.  And I don't think you can throw in 30% more Democrats into Pete King's district, especially because the relative population loss is heaviest upstate.

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The Independence Party, despite Tedisco's hard courting effort, despite the fact they've endorsed Tedisco in every one of his campaigns in the last twenty years, despite the fact that they endorsed the Republican against Gillibrand in 2008, endorsed Scott Murphy today.

That's worth a couple votes but is more symbolic than anything else.