NY-20 Special Election

[Tender Branson]

ALBANY, N.Y. - Scott Murphy, the Democrat running for Congress in New York, says he opposes the death penalty, even for terrorists.

Speaking on Talk 1300-AM, WGDJ, Murphy tells host Fred Dicker he opposes the death penalty in all cases, including for the Sept. 11 terrorists who attacked the World Trade Center and Washington, D.C.

Murphy says the evidence may not be conclusive in many cases and guilt can't be guaranteed. He says the cost of making a mistake in a death penalty case is too high.

A spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee calls Murphy's comments "dangerously naive and appalling."

Jim Tedisco, the Republican candidate in the March 31 special election in the 20th Congressional District, supports the death penalty.

"Scott respects that people have deeply held beliefs about the death penalty," Murphy's spokesman, Ryan Rudominer, said in a prepared statement Friday. "He is against it. Scott was in New York City on 9-11, and understands the horrors of that day. Scott believes we need to round up the terrorists and lock them up for life and throw away the key."

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newyork/ny-bc-ny--nyhouse20-deathpe0320mar20,0,7034270.story

Great ! My support for Murphy has just increased by 500%.

[Tender Branson]

Obama endorses Murphy, e-mails supporters to ask them to volunteer for him.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/25/obama-flexes-political-mu_n_178801.html

"According to the latest Siena College poll on the race (March 12), Obama has a 65 percent approval rating in the district, with 27 percent rating him unfavorably and 9 percent undecided. Gillibrand had a 78 percent approval rating.

That poll showed Tedisco leading Murphy by 4 percentage points, with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points."

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedFiles/Home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/20th%20CD%20SNY%20Poll%202%20Release%20--%20final_2.pdf

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i2nln7p35tRhOT7gX0tNtWIFMkcAD9755G1G4

[Tender Branson]

A new Siena College NY-20 poll will be out in a few hours ...

[Tender Branson]

New poll by Siena Research Institute:

Murphy (D): 47% (+6)
Tedisco (R): 43% (-2)
Sundwall (L): 2% (+1)

“Murphy has sealed the deal with Democrats, leading 84-11 percent, while Tedisco has the support of less than two-thirds of Republicans, leading 64-27 percent. Independents are virtually tied, with Tedisco leading 45-44 percent, after trailing with independents by six points two weeks ago and leading by 14 points four weeks ago,” Greenberg said.

Favorable Ratings:

Murphy: 49% favorable, 38% unfavorable
Tedisco: 48% favorable, 41% unfavorable
Sundwall: 7% favorable, 14% unfavorable

Gillibrand: 76% favorable, 18% unfavorable
Obama: 65% favorable, 28% unfavorable

This SRI 20th C.D. survey was conducted March 25-26, 2009 by telephone calls to 917 likely voters. It has a margin of error of + 3.2 percentage points.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedFiles/Home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/20th%20CD%20SNY%20Poll%203%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Ugh.

I have checked the registration statistics of NY-20 and it breaks down as followed:

41% Republicans: Tedisco 64-27
33% Independents/Others: Tedisco 45-44
26% Democrats: Murphy 84-11

So, if the composition on Election Day is like the registration composition, Murphy leads 47-44.

[Tender Branson]

Great, so does this mean we'll still likely know the winner on 4/1, unless it's very close?

How many NY-20 voters are actually in the military and deployed overseas ?

0.1% ?

[Tender Branson]

What exactly is or was Gillibrand's stance on the Death Penalty ?

[Tender Branson]

What exactly is or was Gillibrand's stance on the Death Penalty ?

Almost certainly in favor....but I'm not sure.

It could explain why Murphy dropped among Independents during the last 2 weeks.

Or just high MoE in subgroups ...

[Tender Branson]

Note: Conducted a few days before Siena's poll:

Dem's internal poll shows edge in N.Y. race

Bidding for New York's 20th district seat, Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco by two percentage points in a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll.

The poll, obtained by The Hill from a Democratic source, shows Murphy leading Tedisco 43 percent to 41 percent in the race for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's (D-N.Y.) former House seat.

The DCCC's poll was taken earlier this week, before the Siena College poll released Friday that showed Murphy leading Tedisco by four percentage points, 47 percent to 43 percent.

The Siena poll was the first to show Murphy leading Tedisco. Tedisco quickly responded, issuing a statement that said his campaign's polling shows him ahead of Murphy.

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/dems-internal-polling-shows-edge-in-n.y.-race-2009-03-27.html

[Tender Branson]

Prediction:

Murphy - 52.3%
Tedisco - 47.7%

[Tender Branson]

Sources are telling me a 4-6 point win for Murphy tonight...

What sources ?

[Tender Branson]

All in but the absentees, recount and lawsuits:

Murphy 77,344   (50.02%)
Tedesco 77,279 (49.98%)

Murphy +65

Yes, that must be it for now. Hopefully the absentee ballots will favor Murphy, but it's not a done deal.

There can't be more than 200 overseas military voters ...

[Tender Branson]

All in but the absentees, recount and lawsuits:

Murphy 77,344   (50.02%)
Tedesco 77,279 (49.98%)

Murphy +65

Yes, that must be it for now. Hopefully the absentee ballots will favor Murphy, but it's not a done deal.

There can't be more than 200 overseas military voters ...

Why are the absentees expected to favor Murphy?

They are assuming they are military ballots, which typically lean heavily Republican.

200 military ballots- that would mean that Tedesco would need to win by a margin of about 66-33. That's a tall order- even from the military. I am guessing it will be more like a 40 vote gain for Tedesco....making him 20 votes short..

a) I didn't say that absentee ballots will favor Murphy, I hope they do.

b) 200 overseas ballots is a rough guess, unless there's a military base in NY-20. Considering that about 300.000-400.000 US soldiers are currently overseas, it'd be 1/1000 of all NY-20 voters, which of course would be around 200 overseas voters in a 160.000 turnout.

[Tender Branson]

Newsmax notes that out of the 10.055 absentee ballots that were issued, 1.800 went to "military service personnel and other citizens living abroad".

http://www.newsmax.com/headlines/tedisco_challenge_race/2009/03/31/198170.html

[Tender Branson]

Republicans insist that any such "projections" are not an appropriate gauge of what the eventual universe of absentee ballots will look like.

I agree with the Republicans on this one ...

[Tender Branson]

Seems like a good enough Murphy lead in absentees only so far.

Can anyone please explain to me (I haven't followed this all the time) why there's such a discrepancy between the Election Night Vote (Murphy up by 60 or so) and the recanvassing (Tedisco up 70) Why are these counties not able to produce final numbers on Election Night ... ?

[Tender Branson]

Seems like a good enough Murphy lead in absentees only so far.

Can anyone please explain to me (I haven't followed this all the time) why there's such a discrepancy between the Election Night Vote (Murphy up by 60 or so) and the recanvassing (Tedisco up 70) Why are these counties not able to produce final numbers on Election Night ... ?

They were just errors in reporting. For example, a person on the phone saying 769 instead of 796. During canvassing they go back and check for errors.

But 100 votes ? The should check the numbers in a precinct 2 times or 3 times or 5 times on Election Night and then report it to the SBOE. Sry, but I just hate it if there are 10 different results around all the time ...

[Tender Branson]

New count:

Murphy: 78.329
Tedisco: 78.161

Murphy: +168

[Tender Branson]

Over.

Well, there are still about 4.300 absentees left to count.

Among the 2443 that were already counted, Murphy leads 55%-45%.

[Tender Branson]

4678 of about 6700 absentee ballots have been counted so far.

Murphy has won 53% of them so far.

Tedisco would need to win roughly 55% of the remaining 2000 ballots to pull ahead again.

[Tender Branson]

4678 of about 6700 absentee ballots have been counted so far.

Murphy has won 53% of them so far.

Tedisco would need to win roughly 55% of the remaining 2000 ballots to pull ahead again.

With the bulk of those absentees out from Columbia and Warren Counties, the odds of that happening aren't good.  The objected-to ballots in Saratoga shouldn't be anywhere close enough for Tedisco to take the lead again, let alone win when the Columbia votes come in.

1600 are now left to be counted and Tedisco needs 59% of them to win.

[Tender Branson]

With all of the unchallenged absentee and overseas military ballots counted, Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican Jim Tedisco by 273 votes and looks in extremely strong position to prevail in the New York special election.

Murphy has 79,839 votes, while Tedisco has 79,566 votes.

Fueling Democratic optimism is the source of the 1,773 ballots that have been challenged by both campaigns, and left out of the current count. According to a database provided by the Murphy campaign, the plurality of those challenged ballots were cast by registered Democrats.

Of the 1,773 ballots not included in the count, 810 were cast by registered Democrats, 653 were from registered Republicans and 310 were from independent or unaffiliated voters.

That registration breakdown makes it nearly impossible for Tedisco to overcome his 273-vote deficit. Registered Democrats overwhelmingly voted for Murphy in the election, so it's fairly safe to conclude that Murphy will net additional votes as many of the challenged ballots get counted.

Democrats also estimate that Tedisco’s campaign has objected to twice as many ballots across the district as Murphy’s campaign – consistent with the registration patterns of the challenged ballots. So if most of these ballots end up in the count, expect Murphy to ultimately win by around 700-800 votes.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0409/Murphy_on_track_to_win_special_election.html

It's time for Tedisco to concede ...

[Tender Branson]

About 6300 of 6800 absentee ballots are now counted.

Murphy has won them 54-46.

Tedisco would need to win the rest with more than 90% to win.