NY-20 Special Election (user search)
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Author Topic: NY-20 Special Election  (Read 179002 times)
cinyc
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« on: January 23, 2009, 03:12:17 PM »
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on January 23, 2009, 08:24:40 AM
They'll just dismantle the district in 2010 anyway, so who cares?

I doubt the district will be dismantled in 2010.  2012 is more likely.
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cinyc
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« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2009, 06:59:01 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on February 05, 2009, 07:34:24 PM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on February 05, 2009, 03:30:43 PM
Quote from: Eraserhead on February 05, 2009, 03:09:21 PM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on February 05, 2009, 02:23:32 PM
Quote from: Eraserhead on February 05, 2009, 11:54:17 AM
I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400. I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

Was that meant to be serious?

Yes it was.  I think Tedisco will probably win this race with around 67% of the vote. 

I live in NY-20. Tedisco will probably win if turnout is low but there is no way in hell that that is going to happen.

For a special election?  Turnout will be low - very low.  It always is.
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cinyc
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« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2009, 10:14:43 PM »
Quote from: Lunar on February 07, 2009, 12:19:11 PM
The DCCC put out some oppo research, but other than that, they have been largely absent:
http://www.politickerny.com/1813/why-dccc-fighting-gillibrand-seat

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What's he doing, driving an RV to work or filling up his friends cars?

Maybe he drove to Buffalo and back for a hearing, or Montauk and back for a meeting, or Buffalo to Montauk, or to a conference somewhere far away. 

Two days out of eight years?  And an average of $2600 per year for gas?  Big deal.   If the car got 15MPG, that would be 20,000 miles per year at $2 a gallon - not out of the ordinary.   They're making a mountain out of a molehill.
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cinyc
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« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2009, 03:12:52 PM »
« Edited: March 31, 2009, 03:24:30 PM by cinyc »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on March 31, 2009, 11:27:31 AM
I checked the State Board of Elections page and there doesn't seem to be a link (at least not yet) to a results page. Anyone have ideas? Do you think the Albany news affiliates might have useful pages?

New York's Board of Elections website is a complete joke.  They've never posted timely returns.   Louisiana runs circles around this state when it comes to providing election returns.

The best bet will probably be to check Politico or the larger area newspapers'  (Poughkeepsie Journal, Albany Times-Union) and TV stations' (WRGB, WTEN, WNYT) websites for the APs returns from the district.  Alternatively, I'll check if we can sum up results from the various COUNTY boards of elections - but given past history, their results won't be timely, either.

Edit: Links to County BOE sites' result pages:
Columbia
Delaware
Dutchess
Essex
Greene
Ostego
Rensselaer
Saratoga
Warren
Washington
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cinyc
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« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2009, 03:50:54 PM »

I call your turnout light article and raise you a turnout high article:
Turnout high for Congress race; get results here after 9 p.m. (Poughkeepsie Journal)

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cinyc
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« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2009, 05:28:13 PM »
« Edited: March 31, 2009, 05:43:09 PM by cinyc »
Since the county results might come quicker than the districtwide results, here are some stats on the county-by-county breakdown of the district (based on the 2008 Congressional Vote), plus the percentage of the vote Gillibrand (D) received in 2006.  Gillibrand won in 2006 with 53.1%.  2004 and 2008 were blowouts and not great for comparison:



County      % of District    2006 D%
Columbia
9.6%
58.32%
Delaware
5.4%
46.07%
Dutchess
14.5%
55.15%
Essex
1.9%
53.54%
Greene
6.8%
47.90%
Ostego
1.6%
52.56%
Rensselaer
9.9%
53.36%
Saratoga
32.6%
52.60%
Warren
9.8%
53.83%
Washington
7.8%
53.16%
Total
100%
53.10%

Fairly uniform, except for Greene, Delaware and Columbia.

Saratoga.  Saratoga.  Saratoga.
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2009, 06:32:07 PM »
Quote from: Torie on March 31, 2009, 04:22:45 PM
Quote from: Senator Franzl on March 31, 2009, 04:21:00 PM
Does it even make sense to challenge an election before a recount is requested and performed?

I suspect the document is ersatz myself. It makes zero sense. It is not as if the election will be certified tomorrow or the next day is it?

Sounds like much ado about nothing - and not directly filed by Tedesco, in any event.  From the Poughkeepsie Journal:

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cinyc
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« Reply #7 on: March 31, 2009, 07:38:13 PM »
« Edited: March 31, 2009, 07:45:26 PM by cinyc »
Albany Times-Union Results Page (breakdown by county; no total for some reason).

Saratoga County 2006 results for comparison, in case we get a precinct breakdown there.
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cinyc
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« Reply #8 on: March 31, 2009, 07:47:15 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on March 31, 2009, 07:45:28 PM
Quote from: Eraserhead on March 31, 2009, 07:32:23 PM
"Bronx GOP" sounds like an oxymoron.

Well, they do manage to get candidates to run every time out who can usually successfully pull 5%-10% of the vote.  Whatever that means...  Smiley

I thought NY polls close at 9:00 PM.  Am I wrong on this?  Anyway, I'll be in and out, probably this evening.

Yes, polls close at 9.

The Bronx had a Republican state senator until he went to prison a few years back.
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cinyc
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« Reply #9 on: March 31, 2009, 08:03:25 PM »

Two more:
CBS 6 Results Page
WNYT results page
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cinyc
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« Reply #10 on: March 31, 2009, 08:06:54 PM »
First results from Republican-leaning Greene County:


GREENE COUNTY BOARD OF ELECTIONS
General Election Results
UNOFFICIAL
Election Date 03/31/2009
Last Updated 03/31/2009 09:00:04 PM
General Election 03/31/2009
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 020 RACES
3 of 36 (8%) machines reporting (52 total districts)
20TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Vote for 1
JIM TEDISCO 567
SCOTT MURPHY 453
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cinyc
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« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2009, 08:08:55 PM »
Warren County:


UNOFFICIAL
NTS Election Night Reporting System - Party Breakdown Race results
Warren County Board of Elections
Office of the Board of Elections
1340 State Rte. 9
Lake George, NY 12845
518-761-6457
Warren County Municipal Center
Commissioners
Deputy Commissioners
Wm. A. Montfort
Mary Beth Casey
Thomas Apple
Connie Service
General Election 03/31/2009
Congressional District 020
2 of 36 (6%) machines reporting (70 total districts)
20th Congressional District Member
Jim Tedisco 90 REP 18 CON 108
Scott Murphy 229 DEM 33 IND 15 WOR 277
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cinyc
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« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2009, 08:11:38 PM »
So it's
Murphy 740    52.30%
Tedesco 675   47.70%

with these limited results in.
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cinyc
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« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2009, 08:13:39 PM »
31% of Warren in:
UNOFFICIAL
NTS Election Night Reporting System - Party Breakdown Race results
Warren County Board of Elections
Office of the Board of Elections
1340 State Rte. 9
Lake George, NY 12845
518-761-6457
Warren County Municipal Center
Commissioners
Deputy Commissioners
Wm. A. Montfort
Mary Beth Casey
Thomas Apple
Connie Service
General Election 03/31/2009
Congressional District 020
11 of 36 (31%) machines reporting (70 total districts)
20th Congressional District Member
Jim Tedisco
1,659 REP 197 CON 1,856
Scott Murphy 2,084 DEM 225 IND 84 WOR 2,393
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cinyc
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« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2009, 08:16:11 PM »

Way too early for that.
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cinyc
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« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2009, 08:19:21 PM »
My tally from the county BOE sites
Tedesco 12761 50.21%
Murphy 12656    49.79%
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cinyc
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« Reply #16 on: March 31, 2009, 08:20:08 PM »
Quote from: VP Meeker on March 31, 2009, 08:18:04 PM
Remind me again which county Murphy is from?

Warren (Glenns Falls)
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cinyc
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« Reply #17 on: March 31, 2009, 08:24:26 PM »
Latest Update:

Tedesco 17530   51.17%
Murphy 16730          48.83%


100% Missing: Columbia, Ostego, Dutchess
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cinyc
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« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2009, 08:25:30 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on March 31, 2009, 08:23:55 PM
Once you have full county results, cinyc, that would be mighty helpful.


County   Murphy   Tedesco   SE D%
Columbia         #DIV/0!
Delaware         #DIV/0!
Dutchess         #DIV/0!
Essex   441   321   57.87%
Greene   1494   1982   42.98%
Ostego         #DIV/0!
Rensselaer   1457   1565   48.21%
Saratoga   5552   7665   42.01%
Warren   5759   4506   56.10%
Washington   2027   1491   57.62%
         
Total   16730   17530   48.83%
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cinyc
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« Reply #19 on: March 31, 2009, 08:29:32 PM »
Update:
Tedesco 27,335       50.48%
Murphy  26,810   49.52%

Columbia and Ostego county BOE's websites stink - no results page.  Dutchess hasn't updated theirs, nor has Delaware.
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cinyc
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« Reply #20 on: March 31, 2009, 08:31:54 PM »
Change from 2006 D% (Positive is pro-Tedesco, Negative is pro-Murphy)
Columbia         
Delaware         
Dutchess         
Essex    -4.33%
Greene    4.30%
Ostego      
Rensselaer   5.15%
Saratoga           9.76%
Warren         -1.63%
Washington -4.26%
            
Total   3.58%
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cinyc
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« Reply #21 on: March 31, 2009, 08:36:41 PM »
My updated count from County BOE websites and the Saratogan for Dutchess, Ostego, Columbia:

Tedesco 40,411 50.49%
Murphy  39,632 49.51%
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cinyc
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« Reply #22 on: March 31, 2009, 08:40:21 PM »
County   Murphy   Tedesco   SE D%   2006 Change
Columbia   2544   1981   56.22%   2.10%
Delaware         #DIV/0!   #DIV/0!
Dutchess   3016   2894   51.03%   4.11%
Essex   630   593   51.51%   2.03%
Greene   3366   4333   43.72%   4.18%
Ostego   790   876   47.42%   5.14%
Rensselaer   3158   3376   48.33%   5.03%
Saratoga   14178   18051   43.99%   8.61%
Warren   8680   6890   55.75%   -1.92%
Washington   6750   5238   56.31%   -3.15%
            
Total   43112   44232   49.36%   3.74%
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cinyc
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« Reply #23 on: March 31, 2009, 08:42:15 PM »
Quote from: Alcon on March 31, 2009, 08:37:46 PM
Could someone link to the site with Columbia, Delaware, Dutchess and Otsego?  Can't find it for my life, but I have an automated update program hooked up for the others.

Dutchess
Delaware
The others don't have pages, as best I can tell.
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cinyc
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« Reply #24 on: March 31, 2009, 08:45:40 PM »
Next Update:

Tedesco 53,563 50.46%
Murphy 52591    49.54%

Warren all in.
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