NY-20 Special Election

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I'm just excited that I have something else to vote for.

Where in the district are you anyway?  i always thought you were from Westchester.

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I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400. I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

Was that meant to be serious?

Yes it was.  I think Tedisco will probably win this race with around 67% of the vote. 

What exactly is that based on?

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Well, this is BlueDogDem's district so I know a lot about it

I'm still banking on the GOP here.  I know I'm new this conversation, but this district is from like Glens Falls to upper Essex correct?

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Tedisco's campaign is in full implosion mode.

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So what did Tedisco do (or Murphy do) to make this race go haywire?

Tedisco went in with a built in advantage because of the GOP lean and his name recognition.  If he was able to keep this race about him and Murphy, the name recognition and GOP lean of the district would have likely been enough.  Murphy needed to turn this into more of an election about Obama Democrats vs National Republicans.  That is something he was able to do, and Tedisco and the RNC are basically playing right into Murphy's hands by making this more of a national race than a local one. 

The attacks by the RNC have backfired and basically painted Tedisco as being along the lines of the GOP Congress, say no to Obama and offer no alternatives other than the exact same thing we did under Bush.  That just won't work.

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This is going to go on forever. Get ready.

Me and you will have something in common!

You have 6 years left for a fight.  This can go on for a maximum of 21 months until the next general election.

Which would give the Republicans a very easy way to freeze a Democrat out until the 2010 elections should Murphy look like he's going to win.

The difference is the lack of filibuster in this case.  The GOP doesn't get much out of holding this seat up, the Dems majority in the House is large enough that really nothing will come down to one vote.  On the other hand with the Minnesota seat, Fraken being seated makes it easier for the Dems to get past any filibuster attempts by the GOP.

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what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

This isn't a recount. These are votes still needing to be counted. If Murphy's up when these ballots are counted than so be it.

Now you're contradicting yourself.

You were complaining that Coleman's lead went down from 700 to 200 or something like that between election night and the begin of the recount, implying that such changes were not normal.

Now what if Tedisco jumps into the lead before the count is over? How is that different?

UH OH, Murphy's lead has shrunk since election day from 65 to 25.  Someone must have STOLEN THE ELECTION

And now from 25 to 13. I think it'll end up going to Tedisco

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That's impossible. Murphy was leading on election night!! Even though the margin is 13 votes, Tedisco needs to concede....that would be the honorable thing to do! After all, the tally on election night is always final and can never be wrong!

Uh, has Lunar loaned you his crack pipe?

Its a joke aimed at Rowan based off his comments on the Minnesota race...

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Although there are more absentee ballots from Republicans than Democrats to be counted, there are actually more absentee ballots from counties Murphy won that Tedisco did.

I predict another "fraken" recount with enough spoiled and illegal votes being counted to give Murphy the win.

More absentees are from Republicans than Democrats, but the district itself is more Republican than Democrat, and the GOP advantage is absentees is a bit smaller than the GOP registration advantage.  If the GOP & Dem turnout was similar (giving the GOP close to the 16 point registration edge they have) the fact that a 16 point GOP registration advantage wound up in pretty much a tie, a smaller advantage than that with the absentees favors Murphy.  The real question is, are the Republicans who voted absentee as likely to cross party lines as the Republicans that voted on March 31st.  If that is the case its going to be very hard for Tedisco to pull this off.  With that being said, it is still likely going to come down to a couple hundred votes either way once this is all over.

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Although there are more absentee ballots from Republicans than Democrats to be counted, there are actually more absentee ballots from counties Murphy won that Tedisco did.

I predict another "fraken" recount with enough spoiled and illegal votes being counted to give Murphy the win.

More absentees are from Republicans than Democrats, but the district itself is more Republican than Democrat, and the GOP advantage is absentees is a bit smaller than the GOP registration advantage.  If the GOP & Dem turnout was similar (giving the GOP close to the 16 point registration edge they have) the fact that a 16 point GOP registration advantage wound up in pretty much a tie, a smaller advantage than that with the absentees favors Murphy.  The real question is, are the Republicans who voted absentee as likely to cross party lines as the Republicans that voted on March 31st.  If that is the case its going to be very hard for Tedisco to pull this off.  With that being said, it is still likely going to come down to a couple hundred votes either way once this is all over.

But we don't know that the people that went to the polls were at a 16 point GOP advantage.

Which is why I said If.....

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also no one cares if Pelosi gets one more vote

One more vote?  Remember that this is a Democratically-held seat.  By winning, the Dems just break even.

One more vote than they have now, since the seat has been vacant for the past few months.

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Ouch for Steele.

Actually, there are no national losers in this exchange.  If one side won convincingly that'd mean something.  But one side scraping by?  Anti-symbolism

Perhaps, but this shouldn't have been that close.  Large GOP registration advantage + huge name recognition advantage should have = GOP win, but bad campaign from Tedisco + the GOP brand being dog crap = Murphy win