Florida Senate Race 2010(The Seat Nobody Wants)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It looks like this is shaping up to be the seat nobody wants. Is this seat cursed like Burr's or something. So far the GOP has had an incumbent  Mel Martinez retire, and two of the strongest candidates turn it down Jeb Bush and Charlie Crist. The Dems haven't had it any easier as the top recruit Alex Sink has turned down seat not once but twice. The Dems have one more big name candidate that they could run and the GOP has a handfull

Republicans
First Tier
Rep. Connie Mack IV - out
State House Speaker Marco Rubio
Atty Gen Bill McCollum  - out
Gov. Charlie Crist - Back in

Second tier
Rep. Vern Buchanan
State House Majority Leader Adam Hasner
Former State House Speaker Allan Bense


Democrats
First Tier
Rep. Allen Boyd -out
Rep. Ron Klein
Rep. Kendrick Meek - Declared
Mayor Pam Iorio

Second Tier
State Senator Dan Gelber - Declared

[Keystone Phil]

Rubio or McCollum would be perfect for me.

I've been loyal to McCollum for awhile but I think, for electability reasons, we ought to go with Rubio this time.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Boyd!  Boyd!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'm still on board Mack's ships. But I might transfer to McCollum's or Rubio's if necessary.

[Ronnie]

All of those Republicans are awesome.  I support Connie Mack in the primary, but if he doesn't run or somehow doesn't win the primary, I would wholeheartedly support McCollum or Rubio.

[Lunar]

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/palmbeach/floridapolitics/entries/2009/01/20/mack_im_waiting_for_crist.html

U.S. Rep. Connie Mack IV, R-Fort Myers, told WBBH in Fort Myers this weekend that until Gov. Charlie Crist formally declines a candidacy for U.S. Senate, he’ll watch from the sidelines:

“Charlie Crist hasn’t ruled out that he may run for Senate. I know that he’s being courted right now to do so. So it’s way too early to make any decisions like that.”
A “Crist for Senate” campaign appears unlikely at the moment. And several of Crist’s supporters have mentioned Mack, who was among the first elected Republicans in Florida to encourage former Gov. Jeb Bush to jump into the race, as a possible candidate. Bush decided against a campaign earlier this month.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

How "top tier" is Kendrick Meek, really?

Upper tier, maybe, but he's no Alex Sink.  Or, dare I even say it, a white Dem congressman.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Any chance the Democrats could get Katherine Harris to run for the GOP so they can annihilate the opposition and take the seat with ease?

[Lunar]

How "top tier" is Kendrick Meek, really?

Upper tier, maybe, but he's no Alex Sink.  Or, dare I even say it, a white Dem congressman.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0109/Hildebrand_advising_Meek.html

That's why he's top tier IMO

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'd would say that if Crist were to run he would need to wait till the end of the year after the budget crisis has passed. But it would still be seen as running away from the states problems. Given Cornyn's strategy of recrutiing candidates early, which is very wise, I don't think Crist would delay the process. I suspect he will either announce soon that he is not running or continue the same statement he put out on the a few days ago saying he was focused right now on the needs of Florida. After which Connie Mack will declare his candidacy. I am pleased that many of Crists people are pushing Mack right now. That decreases the chances of a bitter primary as Crists support would be necessary for anyone else to challenge Mack and have a shot.

[Lunar]

I'm hardcore, 100% Mack.  I've been a huge fan for some time now and would love to see him move up to Senator. 

Should he run a poor campaign, he'd hardly be the first person who got into political office through nepotism in a partisan district to make a miss-step when having to run an actual competitive race for higher office.

But otherwise I agree.  He seems competent and hell could even make a run for national office some day.  That or Connie V.

[WalterMitty]

what about wasserman-schultz?  is she out?

[Lunar]

what about wasserman-schultz?  is she out?

yes.

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/broward/blog/2008/12/wasserman_schultz_wont_seek_us.html

[Linus Van Pelt]

You'd think running for office while being called "Connie Mack" or "Kendrick Meek" would be a pretty good guarantee that your opponent's name wouldn't be oddly similar to your own. If only Kendrick went by "Kenny" .

[Lunar]

what about wasserman-schultz?  is she out?

yes.

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/broward/blog/2008/12/wasserman_schultz_wont_seek_us.html

Also, Bill Clinton is fundraising for him.

He's top tier now that Sink is out

[Holmes]

what about wasserman-schultz?  is she out?

yes.

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/broward/blog/2008/12/wasserman_schultz_wont_seek_us.html

Also, Bill Clinton is fundraising for him.

He's top tier now that Sink is out

For reals? Source?

[Lunar]

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2009/01/meek-gets-this-senate-race-started.html

dawg, you can trust me

[Lunar]

Former minority leader Gelber jumps in the Race on the Democratic side:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0109/Gelber_running_for_Senate_in_Florida.html

[Brittain33]

Former minority leader Gelber jumps in the Race on the Democratic side:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0109/Gelber_running_for_Senate_in_Florida.html

You know, there's a sense that a Jew is unelectable statewide in Florida, but it seems weird because there is no minority whose members have been more successful at getting elected statewide all over the country in random states.

I understand the reasoning behind the argument. I don't believe it's actually been tested in modern times, though.

[Lunar]

The mayor of Tampa, Pam Iorio, is looking about jumping into the race.

She might be one of the more electable Democrats since that whole Tampa region is a critical swing area

Gelber and Meeks could end up splitting Southeast Florida and deliver the primary results to someone like Iorio

[Lunar]

Did some looking into it, Iorio is by far the most electable Democratic candidate, assuming she can run a good campaign (a big question mark).  It's already obvious that Kendrick will run a professional campaign now that Hildebrand is at his back so I don't really know how this will play out.

Iorio is a centrist, I believe, and from a geographically critical location.  She could potentially beat Mack, which I don't see the other prospective candidates doing as of now.

[Lunar]

 McCollum and Boyd are out

[Brittain33]

McCollum and Boyd are out

Great news for both sides!

[Kaine for Senate '18]

McCollum and Boyd are out

Damn.  It loks like I'm backing Iorio now.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Call me crazy, but I think that Democrats should be rooting for Charlie Crist to enter the race.
Sure, he will probably scare away every respectable opponent, Republican and Democrat, and will be the heavy favorite to win.

But at the same time, there will be an opening for Alex Sink to win the governorship. And with the 2010 census and subsequent redistricting just around the corner, I bet the Democrats would happily trade a senate seat for having a chance to reverse the republican imposed gerrymandering. Even more now that Florida is projected to gain two more seats.