Florida Senate Race 2010(The Seat Nobody Wants)

[Lunar]

If Republicans were smart they would just let Crist run and win the senate seat. But no one ever said they were smart.

I'm a bit undecided about what we should do.  I know the expression "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush", but if we have a significant chance at getting the two in the bush, should we go for it?

If you can't win in Florida (basically the most professional GOP GOTV organization in the country) in an off-year (possibly the best overall off-year GOTV operation), with a candidate like Mack, then he's the least of your worries.

If I was a traditional Republican, I would see no reason to compromise with Crist.  He's gone out of his way, more so than the governors of places like Connecticut and Hawaii, to stick it to partisan Republican politics... there's no reason to suspect he wouldn't be somewhere between Martinez and Collins.  He likes attention, to the point that he might be fine being the one GOP senator to vote certain ways on certain things. 

If this were a more liberal state and/or a state with a less solid turnout operation, then maybe.  But if Mack were to lose against Meek, then the Democrats are probably picking up a handful of other seats (Missouri, New Hampshire, etc).   Kendrick has been running a solid campaign and his campaign manager is the real deal, but he still has to overcome his own biography and overwhelm the biography of his prospective opponents (Mack, Crist, and Rubio all have certain built-in name-recognition or swingy-demographic advantages over Kendrick).

Whenever I read in-the-know blogs on Florida politics (written by reporters who talk to people who know stuff instead of reading AP reports), they all seem to be significantly more skeptical of a Crist candidacy than the MSM and broadcast their skepticism proudly.  Yet, this move by Mack seems to indicate that Crist may be bailing.

Crist has two worries:
1) Being seen as an opportunist jumping from position to position
2) Ruining his political career by having to manage a state budget during a recession. 

Since incumbent Presidents usually get reelected and there's so much star power lined up already, wouldn't surprise me if Crist would hop to the Senate and hope for either the VP slot or perhaps the top job 2016.  I'm pretty sure Jindal is placing most of his own bets on 2016.

We'll see.

/ramble

[BM]

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http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/hl_20090403_4449.php

[Lunar]

there you go.  That explains why Mack bowed out and Rubio is pondering taking on Crist in the primary.  Also why the GOP has been running ads against Sink and pollsters have been testing the governor's race.

GO RUBIO GO.  The Democrats need you.

[Holmes]

It would be a big deal if Crist lost the primaries. Does he really have a 20% favorability among Republicans...?

[Lunar]

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2009/04/more-mo-for-meek.html

[Lunar]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mY1qJOM6Qw&eur

Meek on Crist.  Awesome interview background, any Floridians know wtf that is across the ocean?

[Holmes]

Uhh... a city? How awkward though, "why do you think Floridians love your potential senate challenger so much?"

I just realized he'd have to swing more to the center to have a shot. Hmm.

[Lunar]

Meek represents possibly the fifth most Democratic district [or so] in the entire country. He's gonna swing

[© tweed]

probably has been asked before, but is the FL primary open or closed?  or hybrid?

[justfollowingtheelections]

probably has been asked before, but is the FL primary open or closed?  or hybrid?

Closed IIRC

[Brittain33]

They said they were in Tampa, so that's either Tampa or St. Petersburg.

[© tweed]

I guess Crist thinks Obama won't lose in 2012

[Lunar]

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2009/04/charlie-crists-senate-run-hint-see-you-in-washington.html

[Lunar]

C'mon Count Chocula over at Club for Growth, this is the perfect race to get behind.  I used to think Rubio would be favored in a head-to-head matchup but if he has to destroy the popular [except with the GOP] moderate candidate to do so, well.  Anyway, if I was Kendrick Meek I'd write Rubio a check.

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2009/04/a-rubio-vs-crist-primary.html

His approval ratings may be sky high, but if Charlie Crist runs for U.S. Senate he still could face a serious primary challenge from former state House Speaker Marco Rubio. The conservative Miami Republican, in a sharp about face from earlier, said Tuesday that Crist’s candidacy would not deter him from running if he decides to jump into the senate race. Rubio said in 25 days he raised $250,000 for an exploratory campaign for senate and will make a decision within weeks.

“My decision, which I’ll announce shortly, will not be predicated on what anybody else does,” Rubio said in a phone interview from Washington, where he gave a speech and had assorted meetings this week.

That’s a sharp contrast to what Rubio told the St. Petersburg Times in January about a potential Crist senate candidacy: “Everyone on the Republican side that’s talking about running would step aside and acknowledge that Charlie Crist would be the best candidate,” he said at the time.

Since then, however, Crist infuriated many party activists by campaigning alongside Barack Obama for the economic stimulus package, raising the prospect of a challenge from the right.