CNN/USA Today/Gallup 52/44 Bush (LVs) 53/42 (RVs)

[Sam Spade]

From the Kerry Spot:

http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp

EARLY PEEK AT POLL RESULTS [09/27 02:36 PM]

Just talked to a senior Republican in Washington. The USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll should be out shortly - Bush up 53-42 among registered, 52-44 among likely voters.

UPDATE: This source doesn’t know about the ABC/Washington Post poll that is supposed to be out later today. Overall thoughts from this GOP source: Most of non-public polls are showing Bush up five or six points. He is telling every Bush supporter who will listen not to get complacent - this lead could shrink quickly, although he is reassured that once you throw out most of the odd outliers (Bush up a lot, or Kerry up a bit) the lead has been pretty steady since the convention. Still, he adds, Bush campaign knows “to campaign like they’re five points down.”

I have to wonder if he didn’t get the RV and LV numbers mixed up, since that would make more sense with Gallup’s LV model.

[The Vorlon]

Note! - CNN graphic says Bush +11 at RV level, Gallup website says +13?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

[Sam Spade]

Thanks.  What is you opinion as to what this sort of odd result means?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Bush Lead Narrows in CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll
Mon Sep 27, 2004 03:04 PM ET

MORE
 
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush's lead over Democratic nominee John Kerry narrowed to eight points in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of likely voters released on Monday, compared with a 13-point lead in the poll conducted two weeks ago.
The survey of likely voters showed 52 percent would vote for Bush and 44 percent for Kerry. A similar poll conducted from Sept. 13-15 showed Bush with 55 percent compared to Kerry at 42 percent.

However, among registered voters Bush's lead widened to 13 percent with 54 percent supporting the president and 41 percent backing Kerry. It was up from the earlier poll in mid-September that had 52 percent of registered voters behind Bush and 44 percent in favor of Kerry.

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll survey was conducted by telephone of 1,006 adults between Sept. 24 and Sept. 26, including 758 likely voters and 926 registered voters. The margin of error for both likely and registered voters was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

EDITORIAL BIAS NOTE:

CNN ALWAYS reported the RV value and ignored the LV number in their reporting so far this year.

Will CNN Continue this trend..?

CNN always explicitly has been reporting both figures.  I remember a story on this on Inside Politics a couple weeks ago explaining their decision to report both sets in response to the big divergence in Gallup's numbers.

[The Vorlon]

Thanks.  What is you opinion as to what this sort of odd result means?

BTW - Both Ipsos and Fox also have "inverted" turnout curves right now where Bush does better RV vs LVs.

Bush has seen a rather amazing jump among mid to lower income voters, typically with high school educations

This group has an intermittent voting history and hence while they support Bush, there spotty  historic voting patterns means that many times they will NOT be deemed likely voters - hence the RV vs LV gap.

This is very similar to 1980 when LV polls were close right till the end.

I am not saying 2004 is 1980 BTW, this is just the last time I can recall when the turnout curve looked like this.

Both IPSOS and CBS had Bush +9 at the RV level, but frankly I just don't believe +13 at the RV level.

Registered Voters

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I am not saying 2004 is 1980 BTW, this is just the last time I can recall when the turnout curve looked like this.

I think the LV/RV curve simply means that Bush has a ripe opportunity to "close the deal".  He COULD do that in the first debate IF he makes a good showing.

[AuH2O]

Since the last Gallup was a little Bush friendly, I don't think his lead really declined at all.

The Democrats and the media like to play games with poll numbers, but the bottom line is that Bush got a convention bounce and held it.

Tie in the debates and the campaign is over. Bush wins debates and campaign over. Osama captured and campaign over. As it is, Kerry has practically no chance and has to 1) be incredible in the debates... personable, concise... all the things he isn't and 2) have Bush really screw up.

Kerry's chances, % wise, are probably lower than 10% in a horserace model. My 'model' (it's not statistical as such), which is based on underlying factors and the structure of the electorate, puts him at about 1%.

[Sam Spade]

Well, I was just wondering what you'd have to say on that. My educated guess would be is that Kerry's anti-war stance has reenergized his base, while at the same time perhaps alienating some moderate and swing voters, perhaps in those areas you are referring to.

I would also be curious for a demographic of young voters, because normally inverted numbers like this suggests that vote might have switched towards Bush.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kerry's chances, % wise, are probably lower than 10% in a horserace model. My 'model' (it's not statistical as such), which is based on underlying factors and the structure of the electorate, puts him at about 1%.

Grow up

[A18]

Interesting. This is the second poll to show Bush up more with RV than LV.

[The Vorlon]

I would also be curious for a demographic of young voters, because normally inverted numbers like this suggests that vote might have switched towards Bush.

You are correct re young voters - a lot of those are in the mid/lower income bracket, but yes, it is a good point you make.

That being said, Gallup is behaving oddly this year, more so than simply LV models would imply.

I wish I had a meaningfull comment on this poll, but untill I get a good look at the internals, I really have nothing to say

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That being said, Gallup is behaving oddly this year, more so than simply LV models would imply.

I've been quietly looking over most published state polls recently... and the thing is, almost all are acting... oddly... as well.

[AuH2O]

Kerry's chances, % wise, are probably lower than 10% in a horserace model. My 'model' (it's not statistical as such), which is based on underlying factors and the structure of the electorate, puts him at about 1%.

Grow up

I'm quite serious.

I suppose it's because of the way I view history and the future; given the exact same set of circumstances, people will respond identically every time (i.e., turning back the clock 10 minutes, you would make the exact same response to my post if nothing was different).

The problem, of course, is that we don't know the exact circumstances and, even if we did, we have imperfect knowledge of the relevant actors (i.e. there could be something in particular Bush is unprepared for, but there is no way to know in advance).

Even still, there is only 1 possible outcome for the election. No one, myself included, knows what it is- but there is a fairly limited amount of time left.

I think some people, i.e. Al, have a problem in that they know quite a bit about politics, but not much about other important disciplines (philosophy, non-politcal history, psychology, etc.). Even in the case of Al who recognizes the problems of looking at the election as a horse race.

[Friar]

What are the internals of this poll?

My guess - it is again 8% or so republican friendly as their last poll was.

I predicted weeks before RNC that Bush will lead 4 to 5% after the convention and this lead will hold steady untill the debates. Turned out to be true. I believe Bush's lead is no bigger than 4 or 5% right now.

I will make another prediction now that the race will get tighter as we're approaching the final stretch of the campaign.

The final polls will look very much like 2000 final polls - a couple of points between the candidates.

For our republican friends - don't underestimate the hate towards Bush. Hate is a stronger feeling than love.

It will all come down to the GOTV effort.

[JNB]

That being said, Gallup is behaving oddly this year, more so than simply LV models would imply.

I've been quietly looking over most published state polls recently... and the thing is, almost all are acting... oddly... as well.

  The problem with this race in the last month is that external factors have dominated, from the Swift Boat C**ards in August and  Dan Rathers pathetic attempt to help Kerry the last couple of weeks. All of these events have sucked the air out of real issues. That said, this week, I do think the focus will be on the issues. Again, Kerry is lucky that this mess has taken place before, not after the debates.

   Now that said, there are some potential issues that may hurt Bush in the next 5 weeks. One is Iraq, the situation is not getting any better, and even Sec of State Powell has said i t has become worse, and to an extent related, the price of oil, near $50 a barrel today. If Kerry can get a disciplined, concise message "Are you better off now than 4 years ago" going, with references to the uS being bogged down in Iraq, higher gas prices and outsourced jobs, I think he will gain traction.

[King]

The trend on that chart looks familar...ah yes

[Rococo4]

The final polls will look very much like 2000 final polls - a couple of points between the candidates.

For our republican friends - don't underestimate the hate towards Bush. Hate is a stronger feeling than love.

It will all come down to the GOTV effort.

Well, your hate just makes people like me more determined to keep Bush in office - and I disagree- hate is not going to bring out more voters for Bush than will the love that others have for him.

[J. J.]

According to MSNBC, the W. Post puts Bush up by 6 point.  There is a definite trend.

[Sam Spade]

Internals of the Gallup poll are here:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

JA @ 54%

[The Vorlon]

According to MSNBC, the W. Post puts Bush up by 6 point.  There is a definite trend.

ABC and the Washington Post are actually the same poll.

The jointly collect the data, but apply (slightly) different weights and assuptions to the data.

Taken as a whole, the ABC adjustment are very marginally more favorable to the GOP. but these "two" polls since they use the same raw data are almost always either the same, or within 1% or each other

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

For the record, CNN's Inside Politics today lead with this story, posting the LV and RV numbers at the same time, and reported it as almost entirely good news for Bush (in contrast to the AP headline).  So I don't think sticking them with a liberal bias is fair in their poll reporting.

[12th Doctor]

For the record, CNN's Inside Politics today lead with this story, posting the LV and RV numbers at the same time, and reported it as almost entirely good news for Bush (in contrast to the AP headline).  So I don't think sticking them with a liberal bias is fair in their poll reporting.

Acctually, i must say that this election season, CNN seems to be behaving itself.  Probably because they have to worry about Fox taking away veiwers.