Rothenberg Gubernatorial Rankings

[Nym90]

Lean Takeover (3 R, 3 D)

    * CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
    * HI Open (Lingle, R)
    * RI Open (Carcieri, R)
    * KS Open (Sebelius, D)
    * OK Open (Henry, D)
    * WY Open (Freudenthal, D)

Toss-Up (2 R, 4 D)

    * Gibbons (R-NV)
    * SD Open (Rounds, R)
    * MI Open (Granholm, D)
    * PA Open (Rendell, D)
    * TN Open (Bredesen, D)
    * VA Open (Kaine, D)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 2 D)

    * Brewer (R-AZ)
    * Douglas (R-VT)
    * Pawlenty (R-MN)
    * Corzine (D-NJ)
    * NM Open (Richardson, D)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (4 R, 6 D)

    * Rell (R-CT)
    * AL Open (Riley, R)
    * GA Open (Perdue, R)
    * SC Open (Sanford, R)
    * Blagojevich (D-IL)
    * Doyle (D-WI)
    * Paterson (D-NY)
    * Strickland (D-OH)
    * ME Open (Baldacci, D)
    * OR Open (Kulongoski, D)

Currently Safe (5 R, 6 D)

    * Crist (R-FL)
    * Heineman (R-NE)
    * Otter (R-ID)
    * Palin (R-AK)
    * Perry (R-TX)
    * Beebe (D-AR)
    * Culver (D-IA)
    * Lynch (D-NH)
    * O'Malley (D-MD)
    * Patrick (D-MA)
    * Ritter (D-CO)

[Ronnie]

I'd move TN, AZ, and SD towards the GOP, and AL towards the Dems, but otherwise these ratings are fine at the moment. 

[Lunar]

I think Alabama is a little more vulnerable than that (otherwise Artur Davis wouldn't be so gung-ho about losing his House career and other prospective Democratic candidates wouldn't be scrambling around so fast)

[Nym90]

I think Alabama is a little more vulnerable than that (otherwise Artur Davis wouldn't be so gung-ho about losing his House career and other prospective Democratic candidates wouldn't be scrambling around so fast)

True, though given that it's Alabama, it's hard to see a Democrat actually winning, especially a black (sad, but true). So I think it's where it should be, though it's certainly not impossible the GOP could end up nominating a horrible candidate or some such.

[Lunar]

I think Alabama is a little more vulnerable than that (otherwise Artur Davis wouldn't be so gung-ho about losing his House career and other prospective Democratic candidates wouldn't be scrambling around so fast)

True, though given that it's Alabama, it's hard to see a Democrat actually winning, especially a black (sad, but true). So I think it's where it should be, though it's certainly not impossible the GOP could end up nominating a horrible candidate or some such.

Roy Moore is looking it it, as I posted.

As I said, I don't know whether he'd be an awesome opponent or a horrible victor

[Nym90]

I think Alabama is a little more vulnerable than that (otherwise Artur Davis wouldn't be so gung-ho about losing his House career and other prospective Democratic candidates wouldn't be scrambling around so fast)

True, though given that it's Alabama, it's hard to see a Democrat actually winning, especially a black (sad, but true). So I think it's where it should be, though it's certainly not impossible the GOP could end up nominating a horrible candidate or some such.

Roy Moore is looking it it, as I posted.

As I said, I don't know whether he'd be an awesome opponent or a horrible victor

As much as it sickens me, I think he'd beat Davis.

Now, if Bud Cramer runs, then we have a shot. Maybe.

[Dan the Roman]

Hmm, if this is announced candidates, I'm not sure its that far off. That said, I think Georgia should be moved down. There is no real democrat on the horizon, and the party had a disastrous 2006. I'm skeptical whether a non-incumbent Democrat can win their at all.

SC - Should be further down. I have no doubt a competent Democrat could get to 44%, but after Barber lost the Lt. Gov race against Andre Bauer in 2006 its hard to see any Democrat getting over 50%. Not to mention, Moore was no joke candidate in 2006. The Democrats don't have any one who could match him at the 3rd tier level.

MD - Should be up, if only because O'Malley is in serious trouble popularity wise, just came out with a harsh budget, and Ehrlich is thinking of running again. At best if Ehrilich does run it should be narrow advantage incumbent party.

ME- Should be up in slight advantage incumbent party. Its an open seat, and the Democrats have a terrible candidate recruitment record in Maine, rivaling their counterparts in Minnesota. The AG Steven Rowe seems to be the leading candidate with an assortment of legislators. The Republicans have a wealth of tier 2 candidates ranging from 2006 primary loser Peter Mills(who would have easily won the general) to Former Minority Leader Carol Weston, and Former State Senator Kevin Raye. Not the top of the heap, but better than anyone the Democrats have right now.

MA - Hardest one to call. Depending on whether who you trust Patrick either has a very high favorable rating(suffolk, globe) or a mediocre job rating with disapproval almost as high as approvals(Surveyusa, Rasmussen). Furthermore, the state's democratic tilt is almost invisible in Gubernatorial races, and a serious Republican candidate is almost always competitive. That said Patrick is the victim of variables. Will his budget with largest local aid cuts in two decades lead to public outrage? Will Tim Cahill challenge him? If he does will it be in the primary or as a Republican? Will the Republicans entice a strong candidate into the race. An important point - in early 2001 all of the Democrats had 20-30 point leads over Jane Swift, and when Romney was included he still trailed Shannon O'Brien by 12 when he entered the race.

WI - I think Doyle may not run again, and I think he has the potential to suffer an upset if he does. He road national coattails in 2006.

[Brittain33]

MA - Hardest one to call. Depending on whether who you trust Patrick either has a very high favorable rating(suffolk, globe) or a mediocre job rating with disapproval almost as high as approvals(Surveyusa, Rasmussen). Furthermore, the state's democratic tilt is almost invisible in Gubernatorial races, and a serious Republican candidate is almost always competitive. That said Patrick is the victim of variables. Will his budget with largest local aid cuts in two decades lead to public outrage? Will Tim Cahill challenge him? If he does will it be in the primary or as a Republican? Will the Republicans entice a strong candidate into the race. An important point - in early 2001 all of the Democrats had 20-30 point leads over Jane Swift, and when Romney was included he still trailed Shannon O'Brien by 12 when he entered the race.

Rothenberg does his ratings by likelihood of party switch, so a primary defeat of Patrick by a strong Democrat would still leave this seat "Safe" in the rankings, assuming no Republican is going to unseat Patrick.

I just do not see a Republican coming out of nowhere and unseating Patrick.

[Brittain33]

I'd move TN, AZ, and SD towards the GOP, and AL towards the Dems, but otherwise these ratings are fine at the moment. 

The difference between Lean Takeover and Toss-up, from what I can tell, is that in LT there are only viable candidates on one side while in Toss-up there are viable candidates on both sides, either declared or in the wings. Even if you think Tennessee is a conservative state trending Republican yadda yadda (all true) Lincoln Davis is a potentially strong candidate for the Dems, so we can't say it's more than a toss-up until the candidates are out there was structural weaknesses start to manifest themselves.

But in Wyoming, there is no Democrat who can make the race competitive, most likely. The Kansas Democrats also have no candidate. The fly in the ointment is Oklahoma, where I thought Democrats were running... I guess he sees it like California, where the incumbent could come up with a respectable if not great candidate, but it's the other party's to lose.

[Sam Spade]

Perry's safe?  Doesn't he mean Hutchinson's safe?

If Perry were to get past the primary, he'd stand a halfway decent chance of losing.  Of course, he's not getting past the primary, but it's useful to keep that in mind.

[Nym90]

Perry's safe?  Doesn't he mean Hutchinson's safe?

If Perry were to get past the primary, he'd stand a halfway decent chance of losing.  Of course, he's not getting past the primary, but it's useful to keep that in mind.

Rothenberg does his ratings by likelihood of party switch.

[Sam Spade]

Perry's safe?  Doesn't he mean Hutchinson's safe?

If Perry were to get past the primary, he'd stand a halfway decent chance of losing.  Of course, he's not getting past the primary, but it's useful to keep that in mind.

Rothenberg does his ratings by likelihood of party switch.

It still ain't safe.

[Nym90]

Perry's safe?  Doesn't he mean Hutchinson's safe?

If Perry were to get past the primary, he'd stand a halfway decent chance of losing.  Of course, he's not getting past the primary, but it's useful to keep that in mind.

Rothenberg does his ratings by likelihood of party switch.

It still ain't safe.

I guess Stu and I have less confidence than you do that the party of the black President who hasn't won any major statewide race (Prez/Senate/Gov) in Texas in 20 years (come 2010) and nominates candidates like Chris Bell can actually win anything.

Either that, or he's assuming Hutchison will win the primary, in which case, obviously, it is safe.

I do agree that a Perry vs. Sharp race would be at least competitive, provided the national environment is decent for the Dems (unknown at this point, of course).

[JSojourner]

I suspect this is where the GOP will rebuild their strength.  Looks like a LOT of potential GOP pickup opportunities in the Gubernatorial ranks...unlike the Senate.  And that could mean a lot of excellent, impressive GOP Senate candidates down the road.  The Republican Party is hardly dead and, knowing my own party's flaws and foibles, I am glad of it.  I'll work my butt off to keep as many Democrats in office as possible.  But ultimately, this is very good news for both Republicans AND Democrats. 

[muon2]

I'm amused at a ranking for IL that lists Blagojevich as an incumbent for reelection. There's a good chance that by later today it will be Quinn. (OPEN?) would have been a better listing.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

SC - Should be further down. I have no doubt a competent Democrat could get to 44%, but after Barber lost the Lt. Gov race against Andre Bauer in 2006 its hard to see any Democrat getting over 50%. Not to mention, Moore was no joke candidate in 2006. The Democrats don't have any one who could match him at the 3rd tier level.

I agree that Moore wasn't a joke candidate, but he ran a joke of a campaign in the general election.  The lack of depth on the Democratic bench is a serious, but not insurmountable problem.  A lot depends on how kooky Sanford acts this year and next, how the economy does, and who wins the primaries.  Clear Advantage GOP is the most accurate listing.  It won't be impossible for a Democrat to win the Governor's race in 2010, but it will be difficult.

[Nym90]

I guess Muon has some pull with Stu Rothenberg.

Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings. 2009 races in italics.

*Changes made to reflect the impeachment of Rod Blagojevich (D). Illinois moved to Currently Safe.

Lean Takeover (3 R, 3 D)

    * CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
    * HI Open (Lingle, R)
    * RI Open (Carcieri, R)
    * KS Open (Sebelius, D)
    * OK Open (Henry, D)
    * WY Open (Freudenthal, D)

Toss-Up (2 R, 4 D)

    * Gibbons (R-NV)
    * SD Open (Rounds, R)
    * MI Open (Granholm, D)
    * PA Open (Rendell, D)
    * TN Open (Bredesen, D)
    * VA Open (Kaine, D)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 2 D)

    * Brewer (R-AZ)
    * Douglas (R-VT)
    * Pawlenty (R-MN)
    * Corzine (D-NJ)
    * NM Open (Richardson, D)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (4 R, 5 D)

    * Rell (R-CT)
    * AL Open (Riley, R)
    * GA Open (Perdue, R)
    * SC Open (Sanford, R)
    * Doyle (D-WI)
    * Paterson (D-NY)
    * Strickland (D-OH)
    * ME Open (Baldacci, D)
    * OR Open (Kulongoski, D)

Currently Safe (5 R, 7 D)

    * Crist (R-FL)
    * Heineman (R-NE)
    * Otter (R-ID)
    * Palin (R-AK)
    * Perry (R-TX)
    * Beebe (D-AR)
    * Culver (D-IA)
    * Lynch (D-NH)
    * O'Malley (D-MD)
    * Quinn (D-IL)
    * Patrick (D-MA)
    * Ritter (D-CO)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Illinois to Clear Advantage, please.

Vermont to Clear Advantage, please.

Arizona to Toss-Up, please.

Connecticut to Currently Safe, please.

Maine to Narrow Advantage, please.

Less emphasis on blue state/red state, please.

(Then again, if Rothenberg did that, he wouldn't be Rothenberg.)

[Ronnie]

Mr. Moderate, don't forget how much Jan Brewer won her secretary of state race, even with Janet Napolitano at the top of the ticket.

[Brittain33]

Mr. Moderate, don't forget how much Jan Brewer won her secretary of state race, even with Janet Napolitano at the top of the ticket.

People don't ordinarily know much about their Secretary of State, especially in a tuned-out state like Arizona. I would guess that her opponent's Hispanic name was a factor in her polling better than the generic Republican, along with her incumbency. It's also equally accurate to say that Jon Kyl was at the top of the ticket.

My understanding is that Brewer is rather hard-right. Doesn't matter for SoS, but will for Governor. I also think that this is a very tough time for Republicans to own all parts of Arizona's budget problems and economy.

Finally, Terry Goddard, her likely Democratic opponent, got both more votes and a higher share of the vote than she did in his race, and was mayor of Phoenix in the 1980s.

[DownWithTheLeft]

My majors disgareements and my rating:

CA (Lean Takeover -> Tossup)
NJ (Narrow Adv -> Tossup)
MA and CO (Safe -> Clear Adv)

[Landslide Lyndon]

My majors disgareements and my rating:

CA (Lean Takeover -> Tossup)
NJ (Narrow Adv -> Tossup)
MA and CO (Safe -> Clear Adv)

As the old saying goes, ''you can't beat something with nothing''.
Until the Republicans find something, MA and CO are safe.

[Nym90]

2009-2010 Gubernatorial Ratings

Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings. We've updated Kansas to reflect Gov. Kathleen Sebelius appointment to the Obama cabinet. But since incoming Gov. Mark Parkinson (D) reiterated his decision not to run in 2010, the race remains a Lean Takeover for Republicans. 2009 races in italics.

Lean Takeover (3 R, 3 D)

    * CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
    * HI Open (Lingle, R)
    * RI Open (Carcieri, R)
    * KS Open (Parkinson, D)
    * OK Open (Henry, D)
    * WY Open (Freudenthal, D)

Toss-Up (2 R, 4 D)

    * Gibbons (R-NV)
    * SD Open (Rounds, R)
    * MI Open (Granholm, D)
    * PA Open (Rendell, D)
    * TN Open (Bredesen, D)
    * VA Open (Kaine, D)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 2 D)

    * Brewer (R-AZ)
    * Douglas (R-VT)
    * Pawlenty (R-MN)
    * Corzine (D-NJ)
    * NM Open (Richardson, D)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (4 R, 6 D)

    * Rell (R-CT)
    * AL Open (Riley, R)
    * GA Open (Perdue, R)
    * SC Open (Sanford, R)
    * Blagojevich (D-IL)
    * Doyle (D-WI)
    * Paterson (D-NY)
    * Strickland (D-OH)
    * ME Open (Baldacci, D)
    * OR Open (Kulongoski, D)

Currently Safe (5 R, 6 D)

    * Crist (R-FL)
    * Heineman (R-NE)
    * Otter (R-ID)
    * Palin (R-AK)
    * Perry (R-TX)
    * Beebe (D-AR)
    * Culver (D-IA)
    * Lynch (D-NH)
    * O'Malley (D-MD)
    * Patrick (D-MA)
    * Ritter (D-CO)

[Nym90]

Someone did a bad job with copy and paste. Last rankings had Quinn for Illinois, now they go back to Blago.....

[Sam Spade]

Still don't get how Patrick's safe with his approvals being completely in the toilet.