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Nym90
nym90
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E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #100 on: August 27, 2010, 10:17:18 AM »
Total Seats in Play

Democrat: 19 Republican: 18 

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 4 Republican: 4 
CA R Open Schwarzenegger →
FL R Open Crist 
ME D Open Baldacci 
MN R Open Pawlenty 
NM D Open Richardson 
OH D  Strickland 
OR D Open Kulongoski 
RI R Open Carcieri ←

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0 
MA D  Patrick 
MD D  O'Malley 

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 0 Republican: 2 
CT R Open Rell ←
HI R Open Lingle 

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0 
CO D Open Ritter ←
NH D  Lynch 

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0 
AR D  Beebe 
NY D Open Paterson 

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 1 
VT R Open Douglas 
WI D Open Doyle 

Lean Republican
Democrat: 3 Republican: 3 
AZ R  Brewer 
GA R Open Perdue 
IL D  Quinn →
MI D Open Granholm 
PA D Open Rendell 
TX R  Perry 

Republican Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 3 
AL R Open Riley 
IA D  Culver 
NV R Open Gibbons 
SC R Open Sanford 
TN D Open Bredesen 

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 3 Republican: 5 
AK R  Parnell 
ID R  Otter 
KS D Open Parkinson 
NE R  Heineman 
OK D Open Henry 
SD R Open Rounds 
UT R  Herbert 
WY D Open Freudenthal
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JoeyJoeJoe
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E: -3.48, S: -5.57

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« Reply #101 on: August 27, 2010, 11:59:44 AM »
Quote from: timmer123 on July 19, 2010, 03:25:23 AM
Quote from: WEB Dubois on July 18, 2010, 06:01:17 AM
Simply put it the GOP like these pundits are analysing aren't gonna win all those states in the midwest they probably gonna win Iowa and win MI or PA but winning more than that is simply unrealistic, high probability win only 2. And our senate candidates should help with electing governors in IL, WI, and PA. MI and IO are another story.

Wow, your wishful thinking is amusing.

The Republicans are favored to sweep the whole mid west.  IA and PA are almost a lock, MI and WI are clearly favoring Rep and IL is probable.

Most likely yes.  Ironically, the Dems' best shot at holding a Gov seat in the area is in the one midwest state they don't have - Minnesota.  This is assuming you don't count Missouri, since there's no election.
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JoeyJoeJoe
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« Reply #102 on: August 27, 2010, 12:09:46 PM »
Ratings (Note:  There's no tossup category because there's no such thing as a true toss up - every race at least tilts one way, or looks like it will on Election Day)

Solid GOP Hold:
Alaska (Parnell)
Idaho (Otter)
Nebraska (Heinemann)

Likely GOP Hold:
Alabama - Open
Arizona (Brewer)
Nevada - Open
South Carolina - Open
South Dakota - Open
Utah (Herbert)

Lean GOP Hold:
Georgia - Open
Texas (Perry)

Tilt GOP Hold:

Takeovers:
California - Open
Connecticut - Open
Hawaii - Open
Minnesota - Open
Rhode Island - Open (to Independent)
Vermont - Open

Solid Dem Holds:
Colorado - Open
New Hampshire (Lynch)
New York - Open

Likely Dem Holds:
Arkansas (Beebe)
Massachusetts (Patrick)

Lean Dem Hold:
Maryland (O'Malley)

Tilt Dem Holds:
Maine - Open
New Mexico - Open
Ohio (Strickland)
Oregon - Open

Takeovers:
Illinois (Quinn)
Iowa (Culver)
Kansas - Open
Michigan - Open
Oklahoma - Open
Pennsylvania - Open
Tennessee - Open
Wisconsin - Open
Wyoming - Open

I predict that Florida will go to the Dems.

Republicans pick up 3 (at least) Governorships, not counting Crist as a Republican.  They have a better chance of winning more than that, as opposed to fewer.
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Nym90
nym90
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E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #103 on: September 18, 2010, 08:31:21 PM »
Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 1 Republican: 3
FL    R    Open    Crist    
MN    R    Open    Pawlenty    
OH    D       Strickland    
RI    R    Open    Carcieri    

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
MA    D       Patrick    
MD    D       O'Malley    

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 0 Republican: 2
CT    R    Open    Rell    
HI    R    Open    Lingle    

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CO    D    Open    Ritter    
NH    D       Lynch    

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
AR    D       Beebe    
NY    D    Open    Paterson    

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 4 Republican: 4
CA    R    Open    Schwarzenegger    →
GA    R    Open    Perdue    ←
ME    D    Open    Baldacci    →
NM    D    Open    Richardson    →
OR    D    Open    Kulongoski    →
TX    R       Perry    ←
VT    R    Open    Douglas    
WI    D    Open    Doyle    

Lean Republican
Democrat: 3 Republican: 1
AZ    R       Brewer    
IL    D       Quinn    
MI    D    Open    Granholm    
PA    D    Open    Rendell    

Republican Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 3
AL    R    Open    Riley    
IA    D       Culver    
NV    R    Open    Gibbons    
SC    R    Open    Sanford    
TN    D    Open    Bredesen    

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 3 Republican: 5
AK    R       Parnell    
ID    R       Otter    
KS    D    Open    Parkinson    
NE    R       Heineman    
OK    D    Open    Henry    
SD    R    Open    Rounds    
UT    R       Herbert    
WY    D    Open    Freudenthal
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
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« Reply #104 on: September 18, 2010, 08:44:26 PM »
Ohio as a ... um, toss up?
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Nym90
nym90
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E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #105 on: September 24, 2010, 10:52:54 PM »
Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18 

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 0 Republican: 3 
FL R Open Crist 
MN R Open Pawlenty 
RI R Open Carcieri 

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0 
MA D  Patrick 
MD D  O'Malley 

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 1 Republican: 2 
CT R Open Rell 
HI R Open Lingle 
NH D  Lynch →

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0 
CO D Open Ritter 

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0 
AR D  Beebe 
NY D Open Paterson 

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 5 Republican: 4 
CA R Open Schwarzenegger 
GA R Open Perdue 
ME D Open Baldacci 
NM D Open Richardson 
OH D  Strickland →
OR D Open Kulongoski 
TX R  Perry 
VT R Open Douglas 
WI D Open Doyle 

Lean Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 1 
AZ R  Brewer 
IL D  Quinn 

Republican Favored
Democrat: 3 Republican: 0 
IA D  Culver 
MI D Open Granholm →
PA D Open Rendell →

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 4 Republican: 8 
AK R  Parnell 
AL R Open Riley →
ID R  Otter 
KS D Open Parkinson 
NE R  Heineman 
NV R Open Gibbons →
OK D Open Henry 
SC R Open Sanford →
SD R Open Rounds 
TN D Open Bredesen →
UT R  Herbert 
WY D Open Freudenthal
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #106 on: September 25, 2010, 03:37:48 AM »
CA and GA in the same category? Arizona is only "lean Republican"? Dumb rankings.
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Nym90
nym90
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Posts: 16,260
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Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #107 on: October 03, 2010, 09:51:53 AM »
Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 0 Republican: 3
FL    R    Open    Crist    
MN    R    Open    Pawlenty    
RI    R    Open    Carcieri    

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
MA    D       Patrick    

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
CT    R    Open    Rell    
HI    R    Open    Lingle    
MD    D       O'Malley    ←
NH    D       Lynch    

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
CO    D    Open    Ritter    

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
AR    D       Beebe    
NY    D    Open    Paterson    

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 5 Republican: 4
CA    R    Open    Schwarzenegger    
GA    R    Open    Perdue    
ME    D    Open    Baldacci    
NM    D    Open    Richardson    
OH    D       Strickland    
OR    D    Open    Kulongoski    
TX    R       Perry    
VT    R    Open    Douglas    
WI    D    Open    Doyle    

Lean Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 1
AZ    R       Brewer    
IL    D       Quinn    

Republican Favored
Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
IA    D       Culver    
MI    D    Open    Granholm    
PA    D    Open    Rendell    

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 4 Republican: 8
AK    R       Parnell    
AL    R    Open    Riley    
ID    R       Otter    
KS    D    Open    Parkinson    
NE    R       Heineman    
NV    R    Open    Gibbons    
OK    D    Open    Henry    
SC    R    Open    Sanford    
SD    R    Open    Rounds    
TN    D    Open    Bredesen    
UT    R       Herbert    
WY    D    Open    Freudenthal
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #108 on: October 03, 2010, 12:01:21 PM »
Quote from: Nym90 on October 03, 2010, 09:51:53 AM
Toss-up/Tilt Republican
CA    R    Open    Schwarzenegger    

huh?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #109 on: October 06, 2010, 10:18:57 AM »
My list GOP favored OH, PA, MI, IA, NV, RI (if you count Chafee as one)
Tossups: IL, WI, CA, CT, VT, OR and ME and Florida
Democratic favored CO, MD, and HI
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #110 on: October 06, 2010, 08:37:52 PM »
Quote from: Lief on October 03, 2010, 12:01:21 PM
Quote from: Nym90 on October 03, 2010, 09:51:53 AM
Toss-up/Tilt Republican
CA    R    Open    Schwarzenegger    

huh?

Don't think he's even trying.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #111 on: October 07, 2010, 01:33:28 PM »
He's trying alright but its gonna be a GOP wave and California may or may not be in that status.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #112 on: October 07, 2010, 02:49:45 PM »
Quote from: George on October 07, 2010, 01:33:28 PM
He's trying alright but its gonna be a GOP wave and California may or may not be in that status.

Well said as usual, Mr. Quincy. I'm definitely not being sarcastic either.
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Nym90
nym90
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Posts: 16,260
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Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #113 on: October 10, 2010, 09:41:11 AM »
Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 0 Republican: 4
CA    R    Open    Schwarzenegger    ←
FL    R    Open    Crist    
MN    R    Open    Pawlenty    
RI    R    Open    Carcieri    

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
MA    D       Patrick    

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
CT    R    Open    Rell    
HI    R    Open    Lingle    
MD    D       O'Malley    
NH    D       Lynch    

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
CO    D    Open    Ritter    

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
AR    D       Beebe    
NY    D    Open    Paterson    

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 5 Republican: 3
GA    R    Open    Perdue    
ME    D    Open    Baldacci    
NM    D    Open    Richardson    
OH    D       Strickland    
OR    D    Open    Kulongoski    
TX    R       Perry    
VT    R    Open    Douglas    
WI    D    Open    Doyle    

Lean Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 1
AZ    R       Brewer    
IL    D       Quinn    

Republican Favored
Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
IA    D       Culver    
MI    D    Open    Granholm    
PA    D    Open    Rendell    

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 4 Republican: 8
AK    R       Parnell    
AL    R    Open    Riley    
ID    R       Otter    
KS    D    Open    Parkinson    
NE    R       Heineman    
NV    R    Open    Gibbons    
OK    D    Open    Henry    
SC    R    Open    Sanford    
SD    R    Open    Rounds    
TN    D    Open    Bredesen    
UT    R       Herbert    
WY    D    Open    Freudenthal
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Nym90
nym90
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Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #114 on: October 16, 2010, 02:19:31 PM »
Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 0 Republican: 4
CA    R    Open    Schwarzenegger    
FL    R    Open    Crist    
MN    R    Open    Pawlenty    
RI    R    Open    Carcieri    

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 1 Republican: 1
HI    R    Open    Lingle    →
MA    D       Patrick    

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 1
CT    R    Open    Rell    
MD    D       O'Malley    
NH    D       Lynch    

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
CO    D    Open    Ritter    

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
AR    D       Beebe    
NY    D    Open    Paterson    

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 5 Republican: 3
GA    R    Open    Perdue    
ME    D    Open    Baldacci    
NM    D    Open    Richardson    
OH    D       Strickland    
OR    D    Open    Kulongoski    
TX    R       Perry    
VT    R    Open    Douglas    
WI    D    Open    Doyle    

Lean Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 1
AZ    R       Brewer    
IL    D       Quinn    

Republican Favored
Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
IA    D       Culver    
MI    D    Open    Granholm    
PA    D    Open    Rendell    

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 4 Republican: 8
AK    R       Parnell    
AL    R    Open    Riley    
ID    R       Otter    
KS    D    Open    Parkinson    
NE    R       Heineman    
NV    R    Open    Gibbons    
OK    D    Open    Henry    
SC    R    Open    Sanford    
SD    R    Open    Rounds    
TN    D    Open    Bredesen    
UT    R       Herbert    
WY    D    Open    Freudenthal
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Nym90
nym90
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Posts: 16,260
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Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #115 on: October 23, 2010, 11:10:03 AM »
Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 1 Republican: 4
FL    R    Open    Crist    
MN    R    Open    Pawlenty    
OR    D    Open    Kulongoski    ←
RI    R    Open    Carcieri    
VT    R    Open    Douglas    ←

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 1 Republican: 2
CA    R    Open    Schwarzenegger    ←
HI    R    Open    Lingle    
MA    D       Patrick    

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 1
CT    R    Open    Rell    
MD    D       O'Malley    
NH    D       Lynch    

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
CO    D    Open    Ritter    

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
AR    D       Beebe    
NY    D    Open    Paterson    

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
GA    R    Open    Perdue    
ME    D    Open    Baldacci    
OH    D       Strickland    
TX    R       Perry    

Lean Republican
Democrat: 4 Republican: 1
AZ    R       Brewer    
IL    D       Quinn    
NM    D    Open    Richardson    →
PA    D    Open    Rendell    ←
WI    D    Open    Doyle    →

Republican Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
IA    D       Culver    
MI    D    Open    Granholm    

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 4 Republican: 8
AK    R       Parnell    
AL    R    Open    Riley    
ID    R       Otter    
KS    D    Open    Parkinson    
NE    R       Heineman    
NV    R    Open    Gibbons    
OK    D    Open    Henry    
SC    R    Open    Sanford    
SD    R    Open    Rounds    
TN    D    Open    Bredesen    
UT    R       Herbert    
WY    D    Open    Freudenthal
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J. J.
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« Reply #116 on: October 23, 2010, 02:49:34 PM »
This doesn't look like a big change in seats.
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Nym90
nym90
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Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #117 on: October 31, 2010, 07:47:14 AM »
Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 1 Republican: 2
CT    R    Open    Rell    →
FL    R    Open    Crist    
OR    D    Open    Kulongoski    

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 1 Republican: 3
HI    R    Open    Lingle    
MA    D       Patrick    
MN    R    Open    Pawlenty    ←
VT    R    Open    Douglas    ←

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 1
CA    R    Open    Schwarzenegger    ←
CO    D    Open    Ritter    →
NH    D       Lynch    

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
MD    D       O'Malley    ←

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
AR    D       Beebe    
NY    D    Open    Paterson    

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
IL    D       Quinn    ←
ME    D    Open    Baldacci    
OH    D       Strickland    

Lean Republican
Democrat: 3 Republican: 3
AZ    R       Brewer    
GA    R    Open    Perdue    →
NM    D    Open    Richardson    
PA    D    Open    Rendell    
TX    R       Perry    →
WI    D    Open    Doyle    

Republican Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
IA    D       Culver    
MI    D    Open    Granholm    

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 4 Republican: 8
AK    R       Parnell    
AL    R    Open    Riley    
ID    R       Otter    
KS    D    Open    Parkinson    
NE    R       Heineman    
NV    R    Open    Gibbons    
OK    D    Open    Henry    
SC    R    Open    Sanford    
SD    R    Open    Rounds    
TN    D    Open    Bredesen    
UT    R       Herbert    
WY    D    Open    Freudenthal    

Lean Independent
Democrat: 0 Republican: 1
RI    R    Open    Carcieri
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