Rothenberg Gubernatorial Rankings

[Brittain33]

Still don't get how Patrick's safe with his approvals being completely in the toilet.

1. It's one poll. The previous poll from the Boston Globe showed about the inverse of those numbers, amazingly. Polls in general have been all over the board.
2. There is no Republican who can win and no sense that the Republicans are ready to replace him. Think about Rick Perry's approvals going into 2006, and now imagine if the polls were as crazily mismatched as Patrick's have been.

[Sam Spade]

Still don't get how Patrick's safe with his approvals being completely in the toilet.

1. It's one poll. The previous poll from the Boston Globe showed about the inverse of those numbers, amazingly. Polls in general have been all over the board.
2. There is no Republican who can win and no sense that the Republicans are ready to replace him. Think about Rick Perry's approvals going into 2006, and now imagine if the polls were as crazily mismatched as Patrick's have been.

Rick Perry's approvals were in the low 40s using adults and in the mid-to-upper 40s using RVs in 2006.  That's a big difference than this SUSA poll.

I'm willing to wait and see, of course - it is only one poll.  Of course, I still hold to what I say about the 2010 elections in general...

[Mr.Phips]

Still don't get how Patrick's safe with his approvals being completely in the toilet.

It is a heavily Democratic state.  Most Democrats will vote for Democrats. 

[Nym90]

Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings.
# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (4 R, 4 D)

    * CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
    * FL Open (Crist, R) #
    * HI Open (Lingle, R)
    * RI Open (Carcieri, R)
    * KS Open (Parkinson, D)
    * OK Open (Henry, D)
    * TN Open (Bredesen, D) *
    * WY Open (Freudenthal, D)

Toss-Up (3 R, 4 D)

    * Brewer (R-AZ) #
    * Gibbons (R-NV)
    * SD Open (Rounds, R)
    * Corzine (D-NJ) *
    * MI Open (Granholm, D)
    * PA Open (Rendell, D)
    * VA Open (Kaine, D)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)

    * Douglas (R-VT)
    * Pawlenty (R-MN)
    * Doyle (D-WI) *
    * NM Open (Richardson, D)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (5 R, 5 D)

    * Herbert (R-UT)
    * Rell (R-CT)
    * AL Open (Riley, R)
    * GA Open (Perdue, R)
    * SC Open (Sanford, R)
    * Quinn (D-IL)
    * Paterson (D-NY)
    * Ritter (D-CO) *
    * Strickland (D-OH)
    * ME Open (Baldacci, D)

Currently Safe (4 R, 6 D)

    * Heineman (R-NE)
    * Otter (R-ID)
    * Palin (R-AK)
    * Perry (R-TX)
    * Beebe (D-AR)
    * Culver (D-IA)
    * Lynch (D-NH)
    * O'Malley (D-MD)
    * Patrick (D-MA)
    * OR Open (Kulongoski, D) #

[Brittain33]

    LEAN TAKEOVER: * FL Open (Crist, R) #

I'm guessing that 2000 and 2004 have left Rothenburg unimpressed with Bill McCollum.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sink will beat the pants off of Bill McCullum.

[Nym90]

Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings.
# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (4 R, 4 D)

    * CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
    * FL Open (Crist, R)
    * HI Open (Lingle, R)
    * RI Open (Carcieri, R)
    * KS Open (Parkinson, D)
    * OK Open (Henry, D)
    * TN Open (Bredesen, D)
    * WY Open (Freudenthal, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 4 D)

    * Brewer (R-AZ)
    * Gibbons (R-NV)
    * MN Open (Pawlenty, R) #
    * SD Open (Rounds, R)
    * Corzine (D-NJ)
    * MI Open (Granholm, D)
    * PA Open (Rendell, D)
    * VA Open (Kaine, D)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)

    * Douglas (R-VT)
    * GA Open (Perdue, R) #
    * Doyle (D-WI)
    * NM Open (Richardson, D)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (4 R, 5 D)

    * Herbert (R-UT)
    * Rell (R-CT)
    * AL Open (Riley, R)
    * SC Open (Sanford, R)
    * Quinn (D-IL)
    * Paterson (D-NY)
    * Ritter (D-CO)
    * Strickland (D-OH)
    * ME Open (Baldacci, D)

Currently Safe (4 R, 6 D)

    * Heineman (R-NE)
    * Otter (R-ID)
    * Palin (R-AK)
    * Perry (R-TX)
    * Beebe (D-AR)
    * Culver (D-IA)
    * Lynch (D-NH)
    * O'Malley (D-MD)
    * Patrick (D-MA)
    * OR Open (Kulongoski, D)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Vermont to clear advantage, please.
Connecticut to currently safe, please.
Massachusetts to clear advantage, please.

And it's about time they move New Jersey to lean takeover, at least until Corzine can show he can turn his sinking ship around. The polling isn't just a blip, and if the election was held today, it's pretty clear that Corzine would lose.

[Nym90]

Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings. 2009 races in italics.
# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (4 R, 5 D)

    * CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
    * FL Open (Crist, R)
    * HI Open (Lingle, R)
    * RI Open (Carcieri, R)
    * KS Open (Parkinson, D)
    * Corzine (D-NJ) *
    * OK Open (Henry, D)
    * TN Open (Bredesen, D)
    * WY Open (Freudenthal, D)

Toss-Up (3 R, 3 D)

    * Brewer (R-AZ)
    * Gibbons (R-NV)
    * MN Open (Pawlenty, R)
    * MI Open (Granholm, D)
    * PA Open (Rendell, D)
    * VA Open (Kaine, D)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)

    * Douglas (R-VT)
    * GA Open (Perdue, R)
    * Doyle (D-WI)
    * Strickland (D-OH) *

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (5 R, 7 D)

    * Herbert (R-UT)
    * Rell (R-CT)
    * AL Open (Riley, R)
    * SC Open (Sanford, R)
    * SD Open (Rounds, R) *
    * Culver (D-IA) *
    * Quinn (D-IL)
    * Paterson (D-NY)
    * Patrick (D-MA) *
    * Ritter (D-CO)
    * ME Open (Baldacci, D)
    * NM Open (Richardson, D) #

Currently Safe (4 R, 4 D)

    * Heineman (R-NE)
    * Otter (R-ID)
    * Parnell (R-AK)
    * Perry (R-TX)
    * Beebe (D-AR)
    * Lynch (D-NH)
    * O'Malley (D-MD)
    * OR Open (Kulongoski, D)

[Хahar 🤔]

I have a hard time seeing a scenario where a Republican wins here, actually.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What do they know about Florida that I do not?

Glad to see they finally got around to moving New Jersey. Now they just need to get their heads out of their asses on Massachusetts.

[SamInTheSouth]

What do they know about Florida that I do not?

Glad to see they finally got around to moving New Jersey. Now they just need to get their heads out of their asses on Massachusetts.

Yeah, I have a lot of disagreements with that breakdown.

[muon2]

What do they know about Florida that I do not?

Glad to see they finally got around to moving New Jersey. Now they just need to get their heads out of their asses on Massachusetts.

Yeah, I have a lot of disagreements with that breakdown.

I would have put IL at narrow advantage not clear advantage. A brutal primary is shaping up on the D side and after the mess of the last two years that can't be helpful.

[TeePee4Prez]

What do they know about Florida that I do not?

Glad to see they finally got around to moving New Jersey. Now they just need to get their heads out of their asses on Massachusetts.

I'll still never agree with NJ.  The GOP can salivate all they want.  Just not happening.

PA is really contingent on who pulls out of the primary.

[Lunar]

What do they know about Florida that I do not?

Glad to see they finally got around to moving New Jersey. Now they just need to get their heads out of their asses on Massachusetts.

Yeah, I have a lot of disagreements with that breakdown.

I would have put IL at narrow advantage not clear advantage. A brutal primary is shaping up on the D side and after the mess of the last two years that can't be helpful.

But it's not a liberal vs. conservative primary, right?  It's just Hynes saying he'd never raise taxes and Quinn saying he's there to make tough decisions...eh?

[Landslide Lyndon]

What do they know about Florida that I do not?

Glad to see they finally got around to moving New Jersey. Now they just need to get their heads out of their asses on Massachusetts.

Yeah, I have a lot of disagreements with that breakdown.

I would have put IL at narrow advantage not clear advantage. A brutal primary is shaping up on the D side and after the mess of the last two years that can't be helpful.

But it's not a liberal vs. conservative primary, right?  It's just Hynes saying he'd never raise taxes and Quinn saying he's there to make tough decisions...eh?

Not to mention that the Republican field isn't exactly awe inspiring.

[DownWithTheLeft]

NJ may be moving furhter than "lean takeover" and may be headed for the currently unnamed category of "clear advantage for takeover".  FL is lolz worthy

[Brittain33]

What do they know about Florida that I do not?

Bill McCollum is a two-time loser (2000 Senate, 2004 Senate primary) who has been in politics forever.

[muon2]

What do they know about Florida that I do not?

Glad to see they finally got around to moving New Jersey. Now they just need to get their heads out of their asses on Massachusetts.

Yeah, I have a lot of disagreements with that breakdown.

I would have put IL at narrow advantage not clear advantage. A brutal primary is shaping up on the D side and after the mess of the last two years that can't be helpful.

But it's not a liberal vs. conservative primary, right?  It's just Hynes saying he'd never raise taxes and Quinn saying he's there to make tough decisions...eh?

Not to mention that the Republican field isn't exactly awe inspiring.

The early sniping between Quinn and Hynes is not about taxes as much as it is about how the other was unsuccessful with leadership in their respective offices. After 6 years of Blago and this year's continued budget gridlock, the IL public is not looking for awe so much as an adult attitude towards governing. The GOP nominee may not need to be awe inspiring in the current climate.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What do they know about Florida that I do not?

Bill McCollum is a two-time loser (2000 Senate, 2004 Senate primary) who has been in politics forever.

I know who Bill McCollum is.  I also know that he won his last race for AG and that he's currently leading in the polls by a not-so-insignificant margin.

[Dan the Roman]

What do they know about Florida that I do not?

Bill McCollum is a two-time loser (2000 Senate, 2004 Senate primary) who has been in politics forever.

I know who Bill McCollum is.  I also know that he won his last race for AG and that he's currently leading in the polls by a not-so-insignificant margin.

To be fair, in a straight ticket state he had the 2nd worst performance of any statewide  candidate against an opponent with serious ethical issues of his own, State Senator Skip Campbell, who he outspent 4-1.

He still won only 52-48.

The 2006 AG race is not so much a sign of strength as it is a sign of Florida's natural Republican lean. Which seems to be forgotten here in light of Obama's very underwhelming victory.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Still, none of that explains why we should expect this to be a Dem takeover when it's a "toss up" at best.

[Dan the Roman]

Still, none of that explains why we should expect this to be a Dem takeover when it's a "toss up" at best.

Sorry, that was my argument for toss-up rather than Lean R. I did not see he had that as lean d. Your right that is absurd.

[Brittain33]

To be fair, in a straight ticket state he had the 2nd worst performance of any statewide  candidate against an opponent with serious ethical issues of his own, State Senator Skip Campbell, who he outspent 4-1.

He still won only 52-48.

The 2006 AG race is not so much a sign of strength as it is a sign of Florida's natural Republican lean. Which seems to be forgotten here in light of Obama's very underwhelming victory.

This. I agree that Lean D seems weird unless you think of Bill McCollum as the kind of candidate that Minnesota DFLers tend to put up for their statewide races in their D-leaning state. My supposition all along is that Rothenberg has met and covered the dull and unimpressive McCollum before and is therefore discounting his chances against "someone new" more than other would.

Toss-up is the best call for now. It's too early to say if Florida's economic problems give Sink the edge, and on balance, I don't think they would move that many voters. Nor should they, because facing a sure-to-be heavily Republican legislature she's be hobbled from the start, and governors can't do much in the face of a property meltdown anyway.

[Beet]

The polls at this point are worthless except for NJ. Even VA hasn't really started heating up.

Also, Obama was a pretty poor candidate for Florida, I think that was all well acknowledged here.