I think the vast majority of midwestern states (including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc.) are in good shape for Bush. I don't see a realistic scenario where Democrats could carry any more of those states than they did in 2000.
Al Gore won Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois while running more or less as a centrist. With the exception of Illinois and Michigan those victories were extremely slim. Considering that Republicans have strengthened in party identification in those key "battleground" states of the Midwest and Democrats continue to veer futher and further to the left, I expect Republicans to win in every Midwestern state except for Illinois (and they might win that too).
I think the real surprise on Election Day 2004 will be Bush's performance in the West Coast states. I think Bush will carry Oregon and probably Washington. If he doesn't win California, I think that he will at least make it a real contest.
minnasota might go bush but i think iowa and wisconson will go dem
