Winner of the popular vote loses the election: 2008

[RIP Robert H Bork]

As you all know, in 2000 the winner of the popular vote lost the election. Well, I found out what the map would look like if that happened last year.

Last year, Obama won the popular vote 52.87% to 45.62%. So, I decided to see what would happen if we subtract 3.63% from Obama in every state and add 3.63% to McCain in every state. The result: McCain wins the popular vote 49.24% to 49.25% and still loses the electoral vote and therefore the election, 278 to 260.

The actual outcome of the election (see https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html):

Subtract 3.63% from Obama in every state and add 3.63% to McCain in every state:

What do you think?

Do these maps show what were the deciding states? If so, then what were they?

Feel free to post the results of the same scenario in other elections.

[pbrower2a]

Colorado is definitively the deciding state.

1. Its nine electoral votes are larger than the five of Nevada. Nevada clinches a tie, but Colorado but not Nevada would win the election.

2. Colorado goes to Obama by the smallest margin, and decides things as, for example, Pennsylvania... can't.

3. Colorado is one of but two states in this scenario (Nevada is the other one) that had never voted for Kerry or Gore. The margin is the differnce.

4. I am not sure that Nevada would have gone to Obama in this scenario. Nevada absolutely imploded on the GOP late because of the  meltdown of the mortgage industry -- very late. The financial/real estate meltdown came late, and it decided Florida (pensions and investments) and Ohio (Rust Belt conditions) for Obama.

5. One would have to assume that leads that Obama had had in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Indiana had evaporated late in the electoral season, and Colorado was all that remained. (Note what I had to say of Nevada).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Subtract 3.63% from Obama in every state and add 3.63% to McCain in every state:

What do you think?

Do these maps show what were the deciding states? If so, then what were they?

Feel free to post the results of the same scenario in other elections.

Colorado would go to McCain if he gets an 1,7% margin : it would give an Electoral College tie. But the election would have been decided by the House, who was in majority democrat => Obama wins.
In fact, McCain needs to win either Colorado and Iowa to win : it means a 2,29% lead. Conclusion : Democrats have a very important structural advantage.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Under this map (Obama = actual results - 3.63%, McCain = actual results + 3.63%), the closest Democratic state is CO.

The actual CO results were Obama 53.66%, McCain 44.71%. If McCain were to win it, then he would need to have 4.48% (instead of 3.63%) more than the actual results, while Obama would lose 4.48% (again instead of 3.63%).

Returning to the actual results map:

So now, we subtract 4.48% (instead of 3.63%) from Obama and add 4.48% to McCain (again instead of 3.63%):

In this map (Obama = actual results - 4.48%, McCain = actual results + 4.48%), McCain not only wins the popular vote, he has the majority of popular votes (Obama 48.39%, McCain 50.09%), and yet the electoral college is tied (each party has 269 electoral votes in this scenario).

[RIP Robert H Bork]

So, CO would go to McCain if, in addition to the 3.63% gain already mentioned, he were to gain an additional 0.85% (with Obama losing an additional 0.85%), for a total change of 4.48% for each candidate (and as Antonio V said, the additional swing would be 0.85% * 2 = 1.7%).

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, CO would go to McCain if, in addition to the 3.63% gain already mentioned, he were to gain an additional 0.85% (with Obama losing an additional 0.85%), for a total change of 4.48% for each candidate (and as Antonio V said, the additional swing would be 0.85% * 2 = 1.7%).

Yeah, poor situation for the GOP.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Under this map (Obama = actual results - 4.48%, McCain = actual results + 4.48%), the closest Democratic state is IA.

The actual IA results were Obama 53.93%, McCain 44.39%. If McCain were to win it, then he would need to have 4.77% (instead of 4.48%) more than the actual results, while Obama would lose 4.77% (again instead of 4.48%).

Returning to the actual results map:

So now, we subtract 4.77% (instead of 4.48%) from Obama and add 4.77% to McCain (again instead of 4.48%):

In this map (Obama = actual results - 4.77%, McCain = actual results + 4.77%), McCain wins the popular vote 48.10% to 50.38% and the electoral vote 262 to 276.

From these maps, I would say that the deciding states were CO and IA. IA guaranteed Obama at least a tie, in which case Congress would be almost certain to vote in favor of him and Biden, and CO actually pushed Obama past the 270 electoral vote mark.