Closest Senate race?

[Josh/Devilman88]

There is alot of state that could be close.

[Psychic Octopus]

I think Florida will be close also, and I do not think Crist will run.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, well maybe Jon Porter.

He's my choice.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think it will be North Carolina, Nevada, and Louisiana that are the closest. Maybe MO, OH, and NH(The three we are most likely to lose) if the GOP has a really good night. Even if Crist doesn't run Mack or Rubio should be able to pull off victory in FL by 5 or more if they have a good campaign.

Yes I didn't mention Kentucky. I still don't think Bunning will be the nominee. In which case Kentucky should go Republican by 10 points or more. The reason why he wont be the nominee is a story for another thread. 

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

It'll be something else.  2010 is still a long way off, even though it doesn't seem so.

[tmthforu94]

I'm going to say Ohio for now. It all depends on how Obama does the first 2 years. If he goofs, and Americans are irritated at Congress, don't be suprised if Senators like Evan Bayh, Harry Reid, or Ken Salazar getting in a heated race. I expect Republicans to put someone good up in Florida, and put some money into it. Florida will be somewhat close, but there will be elections that will be closer.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

If Bayh could survive 2004, then I think he will have no trouble in 2010.  Of course, if Obama utterly tanks, then he might have an issue, but I think Obama falling so low that Bayh could lose is unlikely.

[Lunar]

Coburn really has his finger on the pulse of America, eh?  Salazar is really going to have a close election in 2010?

[Ronnie]

It could be New Hampshire, but we really don't have a bench in the state other than Sununu.  The Dems will probably pick it up.

In Missouri, Roy Blunt could do pretty well, but I don't think he can beat the Carnahan political force.

I think things look bleak for the GOP.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'll say Kentucky. But who knows what'll happen 20 months from now.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I love going out of the box so I'll say...

California

[Franzl]

I love going out of the box so I'll say...

California

That is only so you can bump this thread should you somehow manage to be right (p=0.001% as of now, I'd guess), correct?

[DownWithTheLeft]

I love going out of the box so I'll say...

California

That is only so you can bump this thread should you somehow manage to be right (p=0.001% as of now, I'd guess), correct?

A combination of that and the fact that there is really way to tell.  Who would have thought Virginia would be the closest 2006 race in 2004?  Maybe it isn't even Arnold running, maybe somebody will come out of the woodwork from Michigan or something

[Holmes]

California 2006, 2008

Please expect 2010 to be similar.

[Lunar]

I love going out of the box so I'll say...

California

That is only so you can bump this thread should you somehow manage to be right (p=0.001% as of now, I'd guess), correct?

A combination of that and the fact that there is really way to tell.  Who would have thought Virginia would be the closest 2006 race in 2004?  Maybe it isn't even Arnold running, maybe somebody will come out of the woodwork from Michigan or something

Yeah Fiorina's job running HP into the ground before the board paid her 42 million dollars just to leave and never come back is really going to make us excited, and she's so good at avoiding gaffes too.   Even the most of hard core capitalists should hate her for her work she did at HP

[Daniel Plainview]

Most probably Florida, but New Hampshire could also be competitive

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I love going out of the box so I'll say...

California

I'll give you $10 if you're right.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Normally, I would say my home state of Missouri where elections are always close, but Robin Carnahan will easily win this seat. She has the Carnahan name which is a resounding force throughout Missouri (her father Mel was a very popular Governor) and in 2008 she received more votes, over 1.7 million, than any candidate in the state's history. Troublesome for Roy Blunt, should he receive the GOP nomination, is that he has the tainted "Blunt" named attached. Outside of Southwest Missouri, he will not do so well, as many Missourians will probably equate him to his highly unpopular son and former Governor Matt Blunt, who had the lowest approval ratings while in office. Carnahan is definitely the favorite in Missouri. Like I said, she will lose Southwest Missouri but will rack up the numbers in St. Louis and Kansas City and Columbia, and depending on how she does in the other rural parts of the state, namely Southeast Missouri in the Lead Belt and Bootheel, she will win.

As for the closest race, my money is on Kentucky right now. Jim Bunning just narrowly won in 2004 over Lt. Gov. Don Mongiardo by 1 percent the same year that George W. Bush carried the state by 20 points. Not very impressive. If the anti-Republican sentiment continues throughout the year and carries over into 2010, Mongiardo should defeat Bunning. For Mongiardo, I'd have him bring out the big guns (Bill and Hillary Clinton, both of whom are loved in the Bluegrass State) but he has to distance himself from Obama because Kentucky voters made it loud and clear that Obama is not for them in both the primary and general election. 

Either way, it's still very early.

[Lunar]

Valid point and welcome to the forum.  I actually disagree with all of the pundits (TheFix at WaPo, FiveThirtyEight.com) and think that Missouri is slightly more likely to switch parties than New Hampshire in 2010.  Carnahan was an institution and she's almost certainly 75% of the reason why Bond retired this year, since she was going to challenge the seat no matter who was sitting in it.

I love going out of the box so I'll say...

California

I'll give you $10 if you're right.

I think 10:0 odds is being too favorable here.  I think he's beyond the asymptotic line and into the infinite abyss at this point.