Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 24, 2019, 01:50:42 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2010 Elections
| | | | |-+  Kansas: Sebelius looking good
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: Kansas: Sebelius looking good  (Read 7167 times)
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,656
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 06, 2009, 02:51:03 pm »

Is there gonna be a poll section added like other years btw?

Republican Primary (MoE 5% for GOP oversample[does that exist in Kansas?])

Tiahrt 24
Moran 19
Undecided 57

General Election

Tiahrt (R) 37
Sebelius (D) 47

Moran (R) 36
Sebelius (D) 48

Link + Crosstabs

Also

Img
vs.
Img
Logged
bullmoose88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,519


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2009, 02:55:51 pm »

Don't know if that's "looking good."

I thought an incumbent running under 50% (granted with a sizeable lead on her hypothetical opponents) could be considered "in trouble."

Shrug
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,656
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2009, 03:00:48 pm »

Sebelius is not an incumbent, and 50% of voters in Kansas in 2008 were Republican. Smiley
Logged
bullmoose88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,519


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2009, 03:02:05 pm »

Sebelius is not an incumbent, and 50% of voters in Kansas in 2008 were Republican. Smiley

Sebelius not an incumbent?
Logged
bullmoose88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,519


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2009, 03:03:14 pm »

Facepalm.  Duh.  I see.
Logged
bullmoose88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,519


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2009, 03:08:50 pm »

For Senate...(duh)...still I'd argue that given how well known Sebelius is and that she currently holds a big office....you can kind of sort of treat her as the "incumbent."
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,684


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2009, 03:16:44 pm »

Much better than I would have expected. Given name recognition differentials, Sebelius has an obvious advantage, but still. I guess Kansas should be a toss-up after all.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,644
Dominica


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2009, 04:09:19 pm »

Nice.
Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,335


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2009, 04:14:32 pm »

Better than expected, but she does have a name recognition advantage.

Can Kansas send a Democrat to the Senate?  It's an open question, but there's little doubt that this is the best chance in years (decades?).
Logged
Lunar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,432
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 06, 2009, 04:46:08 pm »

Cool, people in Kansas know their governor's name.  Thanks Markos
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,685
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2009, 05:31:13 pm »

she still needs to, you know, run
Logged
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,476
United States


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2009, 05:43:05 pm »

Good enough to distract and siphon resources from candidates who can actually win their races in other states.  The smart money here is still on a GOP hold.
Logged
Lunar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,432
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2009, 05:44:05 pm »

she still needs to, you know, run

This poll was partially an attempt to encourage this
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,656
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2009, 05:46:31 pm »

One of the criticisms I'm seeing is that if this is Sebelius' ceiling. There seems to be improvement in the Democratic and Independent numbers maybe, but really I dunno too much about Kansas voting patterns so.
Logged
Oh Jeremy Corbyn!
unempprof
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,650


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2009, 12:36:22 am »

Sebelius will win if she runs, but I don't think she will.
Logged
Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018
BushOklahoma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,938
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2009, 12:41:57 am »

If she runs she wins.  I think she will run, because she is still a rising star in the Democratic Party.  If she runs, we're likely to see a flip-flop with Sebelius going to the Senate and Brownback going to Topeka.  Voters will probably view that as a "fair-trade".
Logged
Lunar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,432
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: February 07, 2009, 01:04:09 am »

If she runs she wins.  I think she will run, because she is still a rising star in the Democratic Party.  If she runs, we're likely to see a flip-flop with Sebelius going to the Senate and Brownback going to Topeka.  Voters will probably view that as a "fair-trade".

Sebelius will win if she runs, but I don't think she will.

Uh, guys, if she runs she'll still be a favorite to lose.  Imagine if there was an open seat in Rhode Island, it doesn't mean that their governor, a popular Republican, would win.

Sebelius may run, and she may win, but she'd have a harder time running without a GOP Lt. Governor like she has in the past and a simple aura of competence in order to win the day: senate races are far more partisan affairs.

Read as: Get real and wake up in the real world.  Sebelius will have at least a slightly uphill battle to climb, but it's doable Smiley 
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,387
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: February 07, 2009, 10:19:30 am »

Sebelius is the only shot we have to take this seat.  Even if she runs, it's not certain she'll win.
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,801


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2009, 11:54:37 am »

Well, Kathy is the top contender for HHS Secretary (not surprising, since she was the state Insurance Commissioner and a big Obama booster), so mark this one down to Safe Republican.
Logged
Lunar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,432
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: February 08, 2009, 11:57:48 am »

Well, Kathy is the top contender for HHS Secretary (not surprising, since she was the state Insurance Commissioner and a big Obama booster), so mark this one down to Safe Republican.

Uh, how do you know who is the top contender?

Rahm, is that you?
Logged
Franzl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,305
Germany


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: February 08, 2009, 11:58:48 am »

Well, Kathy is the top contender for HHS Secretary (not surprising, since she was the state Insurance Commissioner and a big Obama booster), so mark this one down to Safe Republican.

Uh, how do you know who is the top contender?

Rahm, is that you?

CNN reported it, at least.
Logged
Lunar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,432
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: February 08, 2009, 12:00:40 pm »

Ah, good point.  She's near the top according to the AP.

I can't help but hope that Obama doesn't want to piss off the grassroots by eliminating another potential Senatorial candidate and would additionally prefer someone who has experience in the Senate
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,801


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: February 08, 2009, 12:01:46 pm »

Well, Kathy is the top contender for HHS Secretary (not surprising, since she was the state Insurance Commissioner and a big Obama booster), so mark this one down to Safe Republican.

Uh, how do you know who is the top contender?

Rahm, is that you?

Excuse me, near top:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090208/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/hhs_sebelius

Quote
Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius was near the top of President Barack Obama's list of candidates to head the Health and Human Services Department, a senior administration official said Saturday.

The source, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss private administration deliberations, said no decision was imminent and that other candidates remain in the mix. But the official added the former Kansas insurance commissioner was rising as Obama considers prospective candidates, in no small part on the strength of her close relationship with the president.

(...)

Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen also was on Obama's list to run the nation's massive health programs. Already, though, some advocacy groups were lining up to oppose the Democratic governor.
Logged
Lunar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,432
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: February 08, 2009, 12:02:25 pm »

yeah yeah
Logged
Purple State
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,714
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: February 08, 2009, 01:03:10 pm »

What else is she doing if she doesn't run for Senate and isn't the HHS pick? She can't run for governor again. Does she have better options?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines